• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.237-244
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• 2015

Export-led policies, FTA signed and economics of scale through a variety of market-oriented policies, such as regulations to improve market grew constantly. Accordingly, the correct decision making accurately analyze the economics market for decision, a problem has been an important issue in predicting. For accurate analysis and decision-making of the most common indicators of the stock market by proposing a number of indicators of economic transformation techniques were applied to the convergence model combining estimation and forecasts problem confirmed its effectiveness. Experimental result, gave the model estimation method to apply a transform to show the valid combinations proposed model state estimation result was confirmed in a very similar exercise aspect of the physical problem and the KOSPI index prediction.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.183-188
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• 2019

This study analyzed the effects of short-term interest rates, exchange rates and international oil prices on international grain prices using the EGARCH-GED model. The yield before one month of the international grain prices itself was found to have a significant effect on international grain prices for most periods. During the entire analysis period, none of the economic variables appeared to have a significant effect on international grain prices, whereas during the exchange fall period, only oil prices were shown to have a significant effect on international grain prices. In addition, during the pre-crisis period, interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices did not all have a significant effect, but during the post-crisis period only oil prices had a significant effect on international grain prices. It turns out that the factors affecting international grain prices are changing with the passage of time.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.31-47
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• 2012

The Eurozone was launched to set a goal on using the single currency perfectly in 1999. Using the Euro could get rid of exchange cost and cost of Foreign exchange risk management which was approximately 1% of each member's GDP. It was possible that members has maintained a stable level of inflation and stimulate investment and employment with low interest rate. In addition, they could lead to economic growth and investment as well as increase the Euro demand in financial market. Especially, members has used the Euro as the method of payment on trade each other so that the volume of trade among the Eurozone members has increased continuously which was called "the effect of single market." This paper analyzes the correlation between using the Euro and members' export/import by using random effect estimation and fixed effect estimation. As a result, Eurozone members can get export decreasing effect of 4.68% and import increasing effect of 10.5% respectively on average by using the Euro.

• 해운
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• s.104
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• pp.9-23
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• 2013

세계경제는 올 2분기 이후 완만한 회복세를 보이고 있다. 선진국 국가부채 문제가 점차 조정되고 있기 때문에 미국, 유로존 등 선진국이 주도하는 세계경기 상승흐름은 내년까지 이어질 전망이다. 다만 세계경기가 회복되는 속도는 빠르지 않을 것으로 예상된다. 미국 양적완화 축소로 국제금리가 오르고 신흥국 및 기업의 자금조달 여건이 악화될 전망이다. 신흥국 자금유출은 내년에도 이어지면서 금융시장 불안요인이 될 것이다. 중국도 투자조정이 지속되면서 전반적으로 개도국 경제의 활력이 과거 경기 회복기만큼 높지 못할 전망이다. 세계경제 성장률은 올해 3.1%에서 내년 3.4%.로 완만한 상승이 예상된다. 세계경제가 회복되면서 국내경기도 상승흐름을 보일 전망이다. 하반기중 정부수요는 줄어들 것이지만 민간부문의 활력이 높아지면서 올해 연간 2.8% 수준의 성장세를 기록할 것으로 전망된다. 수출이 주도하는 경기회복세는 내년까지 이어질 것으로 보인다. 수출증가로 미루어두었던 설비투자가 재개되고 가계소비도 올해보다 증가율이 높아질 전망이다. 다만 국내경기 역시 회복 속도는 빠르지 않을 것이다 선진국 적자 축소 노력으로 자국생산이 강조되면서 세계교역 증가세가 과거만큼 높지 못할 것이다. 금리상승에 따른 가계부채 부담 증가 고령층 소비성향 저하는 소비회복을 제약하는 요인이다. 올해 큰 폭으로 반등했던 건설투자도 정부의 주택공급 축소방안, SOC 예산 삭감 등으로 내년에는 다시 둔화될 전망이다. 내년 국내경제 성장률은 3.6%. 수준에 그칠 것으로 예상된다. 수요확대에 따른 인플레 압력이 커지겠지만 국제원자재 가격이 안정되면서 소비지물가는 2%대 중반 수준을 기록할 전망이다. 고용사정도 올해보다 완만하게 개선되는데 그칠 것으로 보인다. 금리는 지속적인 상승세를 보이면서 기업 자금조달 여건을 어렵게 할 것이다. 경상수지 흑자는 올해 650억달러 수준으로 사상최고치를 기록한 후 내년에도 400억달러를 넘어설 전망이다. 이에 따라 미국 양적완화 축소에도 불구하고 원화는 절상기조를 지속해 내년 원화환율은 평균 달러당 1,060원 수준을 기록할 것으로 예상된다. 다음은 LG경제연구원에서 발표한 "2014년 국내외 경제전망"의 주요 내용을 정리한 것이다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.781-799
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• 2009

Korea and China should come up with a mutually beneficial FTA proposal at an early date and thus lead the way towards the FTA. An FTA with China is a key issue of economic cooperation in order to confront soaring Chinese competitiveness in international markets. The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the overall Busan regional economy impacts of the Korea-China FTA. We analyzed the quantitative effects of an FTA by using microeconomic concept. The Korea-China FTA will have positive effects on the overall industry in Busan. Therefore, Busan regional industries exports and imports are expected to grow. Busan is worried the deal would pave the way for imports of cheap Chinese agricultural products, hurting the nation's already fragile agricultural sector. In contrast, Busan's manufacturing sector is expected to see its surplus rise. In sum, we think the FTA will bring benefit to the whole industry in Busan Regional economy because it accelerates development of the industries by trade and investment along with comparative advantage.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.107-120
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• 2015

This study compares own-brand exporting SMEs' utilization of various government-run exporting service programs that provided support in searching for overseas distributors, in overseas market research, and in marketing support. Researchers measure how important firms found each of these components of the program, as well as firms' satisfaction with these services, based on the type of product exported (industrial vs. consumer goods) and the level of economic development of the host countries (developed, newly industrialized, and developing.) A total of 245 own-brand exporting SMEs were surveyed and analyzed in this study. Results indicated that KOTRA was the most frequently used organization by the sample SMEs, regardless of the product type and the economic level of host countries. Industrial-goods exporting SMEs found support in searching for overseas distributors more important than consumer-goods exporting SMEs. SMEs exporting to developed countries considered overseas market research and marketing support and searching for overseas distributor programs more important than SMEs exporting to NIE or developing countries. In addition, industrial-goods exporting SMEs were more satisfied with the overseas market research and marketing support and searching for overseas distributor programs than consumer-goods exporting SMEs. However, there were no differences in satisfaction among firms based on the level of economic development of host countries. Several cases of significant correlations between the importance of and satisfaction with the utilization of government exporting service programs were found.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.3900-3914
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• 2012

This study examined the background of the recent global financial crisis and the concept of one of the financial derivatives such as the credit default swap(CDS) or synthetic CDO(collateral debt obligations), given the rapid growing and changing the over-the-counter derivative markets in their volume and structures. In comparison with the previous literature such as the study of Park & Kim (2011), this research empirically performed more thorough and comprehensive investigations to find any financial characteristics or attributes to determine the CDS spreads. Regarding the results obtained from the multiple regression models, the explanatory variables such as STYIELD3, SLOPE, INASSETS, and VOLATILITY, showed their statistically significant effects on all the tested dependent variables(DVs). Another procedure such as the principle component analysis(PCA), was also performed to account for additional IDVs as possible determinants of the dependent variables. Subsequent to this analysis, larger coefficients of each corresponding eigenvector such as BETA, PFT2, GROWTH, STD, and BLEVERAGE were found to be possible financial determinants. For robustness, all the IDVs were employed to be tested in the 'full' regression model with stepwise procedure. As a result, STYIELD3, SLOPE, and VOLATILITY, and BETA showed their statistically significant relationship with all the dependent variables of the CDS spreads.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.27-49
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• 2016

This study examines the effects of real exchange rate (RER) depreciation shocks on firm-level productivity and employment in Daegu-Gyeongbuk manufacturing industries during 2006-2012. In particular, the study focuses on a sharp and persistent RER depreciation of the Korean Won from 2007 to 2009, which is a situation akin to a natural experiment in Korea. We find that RER depreciation has positive effects on productivity for firms with high export exposure in foreign markets. However, these effects disappear when RER depreciation persists. In addition, we do not find evidence that RER depreciation affects employment of Daegu-Gyeongbuk firms significantly. Firms in Daegu-Gyeongbuk region should pursue core competency to obtain international competitiveness rather than depending on temporary better price condition driven by RER depreciation. Further, policy makers in a local government should provide firms with financial and investment support to encourage innovation and R&D.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.12 no.9
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• pp.357-368
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade in Korea under the new Normal Era. In order to test whether the time series data of trade variables are stationary or not, we put in operation unit root test and cointegration test. Based on VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), we also apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to estimate the dynamic effects in the short-run and long-run. The results show that the relationship between enterprise R&D investment and international trade (export and import) exists in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results of applying impulse response functions and variance decomposition also indicate that the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade is positive, and a significant portion of fluctuations in the trade variable is explained by enterprise R&D investment. Therefore, enterprise R&D investment must be continuously increased to improve economic growth with promoting trading competition power in Korea under the new Normal Era.

• Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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• 2007.07a
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• pp.423-439
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• 2007

중국은 지난 1978년 개혁개방정책을 실시한 이후 연평균 9%를 상회하는 경제성장률을 기록하였고 이는 중국발 수출입화물의 급격한 증가로 이어졌다. 그러나 폭증하는 수출입화물에도 불구하고 중국은 항만인프라의 부족으로 인근 부산항을 이용해 왔고 이것이 세계적인 부산항으로 부상하는데 결정적 기여를 했다는 것은 사설이다. 그러나 부산항이 처리한 환적화물의 경우 2002년에 32.5%였던 환적화물 증가세가 2005년에는 8.1%로 낮아졌으며, 2006년에도 전년대비 0.6%로 기록하면서 성장세가 크게 둔화되고 있다. 이 같은 상황에 처하게 되자 우리나라는 2006년 1월 19일 진해신항 개항과 더불어 기존의 '동북아 중심 국가 추진전략'과 병행하여 '국제물류 네트워크 강화를 통한 고부가가치 물류 허브화 전략'을 수립하여 시행하고 있다. 이 전략은 앉아서 환적화물을 기다리던 수동적인정책에서 벗어나 물류체계의 혁신을 통한 물류 네트워크 확대/ 적극적인 대외 협력 등을 통해 우리 항만이 기업과 환적화물의 안정적인 유치기반을 조성하는 한편, 물류와 금융, 건설, IT 등 관련 산업과의 연계를 통해 우리 물류기업이 글로벌 기업으로 성장하고 세계로 진출할 수 있는 진해신항의 환적화물 유치방안을 마련하여 우리나라 경제성장의 동력이자 미래 경제 전략의 중요한 밑거름이 될 수 있다.