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자본자유화(資本自由化)의 거시경제파급효과(巨視經濟波及效果) : 신고전파(新古典派) 성장모형(成長模型)을 중심으로

  • Jo, Dong-Cheol;Kim, In-Cheol
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.3-50
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    • 1997
  • 경제자유화(經濟自由化)와 규제완화(規制緩和)라는 세계적인 흐름과 함께 우리나라도 1992년 이후 자본시장(資本市場)을 점진적으로 개방(開放)하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우선 몇몇 핵심 거시경제변수(巨視經濟變數)들의 상관관계(相關關係)가 자본거래의 자유화와 더불어 어떻게 변화할 것인가에 대한 이론적(理論的)인 배경(背景)을 설명하고 있다. 여기에서는 무엇보다도 자본자유화(資本自由化)와 더불어 나타나게 되는 실질환율체상(實質換率切上)및 경상수지적자(經常收支赤字)의 의미를 합리적인 경제주체들이 자원(資源)을 보다 효율적(效率的)으로 배분(配分)하고자 하는 노력의 결과로 나타나는 현상으로 파악하고 있다. 즉 자본시장의 개방은 상대적으로 높은 국내의 자본생산성 및 실질이자율을 향한 해외자본의 유입(자본수지(資本收支)의 흑자(黑字))을 초래하며, 대외부문의 항등식을 고려하는 한 이는 경상수지(經常收支)의 적자(赤字)로 연결된다. 또한 본 연구에서는 신고전파적(新古典派的) 장기모형(長期模型)과 케인즈적(的) 단기모형(短期模型)에 기초한 거시경제 모형을 구성하고 자본자유화(資本自由化)의 속도(速度), 환율(換率)및 통화정책(通貨政策)의 변화에 따른 거시경제의 동태적(動態的) 시간경로(時間經路)를 계량화하고자 노력하였다. 예를 들어 경상수지적자(經常收支赤字)의 폭은 자본자유화의 추진속도 및 거시정책에 의존할 것이나, 예상하지 못한 큰 충격이 도래하지 않는 경우 향후 2~3년간 GDP 대비 3% 내외에 이를 것으로 추정되며, 그 이후에는 실질이자율의 하락과 함께 적자폭도 축소될 것으로 나타나고 있다. 그리고 실질환율(實質換率)의 시간경로는 자본유입과 함께 지속적으로 절상될 수는 없으며 개방초기의 절상에 이어 점차 절하되는 추세에 놓이게 될 것이다. 자본시장의 개방에 따른 경상수지의 적자는 국내의 (실물)자본축적을 보다 용이하게 함으로써 실질이자율(實質利子率)을 하락(下落)시킬 것으로 기대되나 그 효과는 연 0.2%포인트 이내에 머무를 것으로 추정되었다. 아울러 자본자유화의 초기단계에 발생할 환율절상은 수출의 가격경쟁력을 약화시켜 단기적(短期的)으로 경기침체(景氣沈滯)를 유발할 수 있으나 중장기적(中長期的)으로 성장잠재력(成長潛在力)을 확충시킨다.

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A Study on the On-line Distribution Plan for the Development of Broadcasting and Communication Content Industry (방송통신 콘텐츠산업 활성화를 위한 온라인유통 방안 연구)

  • Park, Seung-Dae;Choe, Byeong-Seop
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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    • 2010.07a
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    • pp.331-334
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    • 2010
  • 우리나라의 방송콘텐츠 시장은 2012년까지 연평균 성장률 3.5% 수준에 머무를 것으로 전망되고 있다. 원인으로는 콘텐츠 산업의 높은 파급효과에도 불구하고 영세한 제작환경 및 유통구조로 인해 양적/질적 측면에서의 낙후성을 벗어나지 못하는 것을 들 수 있다. 이는 경쟁 활성화를 가로막는 규제제도, 방송통신 플랫폼 사업자와 콘텐츠 제작자간 불공정 거래, 콘텐츠 제작자의 영세성 등에 기인한다. 이러한 우리 방송 환경을 고려할 때 신디케이트 도입은 성숙되지 않은 콘텐츠산업에 새로운 동력을 공급하는 계기가 될 것이다. 이러한 신디케이트 중 '온라인신디케이트'라는 것은 방송콘텐츠 유통전문기관을 설립함으로써 방송통신콘텐츠 판매창구를 개발하고, 제작사의 이익을 보장하며, 수요자에게 안정적으로 콘텐츠를 공급할 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라 국내외 시장 개척을 통해서 보다 확장된 창구화 효과를 거둘 수 있고, 현재의 변화된 방송환경에 맞추어 체계적이며 안정적인 공급과 판매를 통해서 우리나라 방송통신콘텐츠 산업 발전에 크게 이바지 할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 또한 방송통신콘텐츠 제작의 활성화와 유통구조의 개선은 전 세계를 대상으로 글로벌콘텐츠를 판매할 수 있어야 함으로 국제적 유통망 구축이 필수적이라고 할 수 있다. 그러므로 온라인신디케이트는 국제적 유통망구축에 효과적이며 결국 유통과 제작, 제작과 유통이 상호간 높은 관련성을 의미한다. 향 후 프로그램의 제작은 해외의 수출시장 파악이 우선이다. 그 후 국내 프로그램의 유통 성공여부를 가름하고, 해당 국가의 유통시장을 면밀히 분석할 필요가 있으며, 필요하다면 현지 유통사 및 제작사와 협력관계를 유지할 필요가 있다. 최종적으로 성공가능성을 타진하여 현지 유통사를 인수하는 것이 위험 부담을 크기 때문에 이러한 과정을 통해서 글로벌 유통기업을 만들어야 하나, 설립은 막대한 자금이 필요하므로 이러한 '온라인 유통공사(신디케이트)의 설립'은 처음 시작해야 하는 위험 부담을 줄이는 지름길일 것이다.

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A Study on the Development Plan of the Domestic Film Industry through the Window Theory of Opportunity (기회의 창 이론을 통해 바라본 국내 영화 산업의 발전 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2020
  • The Korean film, which reached its 100th anniversary, has achieved remarkable growth. However, contrary to the facts revealed to the outside, there existed chronic problems. Representatively, the problems were classified into four types: vertical integration problems, lack of support for art and independent films, lack of diversity in video content, and sluggish exports. Therefore, in order to continuously develop Korean films, this study explored the development methods of the domestic film industry using the window theory of opportunity. As a result of the research, the Korean film industry as a late chase was developed through strategies to enter new technologies and paradigms, and strategies to enter through low entry costs for existing digital platforms, active government intervention, and changes in regulations. Through this, it was revealed that the whole film ecosystem should ultimately go through symbiotic cooperation.

How Did the Press Report the Conflict Between Korea and Japan? : Focusing on Framing and Signifying Strategies (언론은 한일 갈등을 어떻게 보도했는가 : 프레임 유형과 의미화 방식을 중심으로)

  • Park, Young Heum;Chung, Je Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.352-367
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    • 2020
  • This study critically reviewed whether the South Korean press reported the issue of conflict between South Korea and Japan in a way consistent with their journalistic values. To this end, this study conducted frame analysis and textual analysis for the articles of three press(Chosun Ilbo, Hankyoreh and KBS) from the three major branches of conflict (Korea's Supreme Court's ruling on forced labor compensation in October 2018, the Japanese government's decision to regulate exports in July 2019 and the Korean government's decision to end GSOMIA in August 2019) to one week. There were many superficial reports of simply relaying conflicts around the occurrence and outcome of events, and there were few reports that analyzed the context in depth or suggested alternatives. And partisan reporting, which is cited as a key issue in the Korean journalism, has been strongly revealed in the midst of a conflict between Korea and Japan, a national emergency situation.

Determination of Pattern Models using a Convergence of Time-Series Data Conversion Technique for the Prediction of Financial Markets (금융시장 예측을 위한 시계열자료의 변환기법 융합을 이용한 패턴 모델 결정)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2015
  • Export-led policies, FTA signed and economics of scale through a variety of market-oriented policies, such as regulations to improve market grew constantly. Accordingly, the correct decision making accurately analyze the economics market for decision, a problem has been an important issue in predicting. For accurate analysis and decision-making of the most common indicators of the stock market by proposing a number of indicators of economic transformation techniques were applied to the convergence model combining estimation and forecasts problem confirmed its effectiveness. Experimental result, gave the model estimation method to apply a transform to show the valid combinations proposed model state estimation result was confirmed in a very similar exercise aspect of the physical problem and the KOSPI index prediction.

Technical Analysis and Future Development of Liquefied Hydrogen Carriers (액화수소 산적 운반선의 기술성 분석 및 향후 개발 과제)

  • Lee, Hyunyong;Kang, Hokeun;Roh, Gilltae;Jung, Inchul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.361-369
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    • 2022
  • Countries worldwide are shifting to a hydrogen economy to respond to stringent environmental regulations, and the transport of hydrogen between countries is expected to increase in the mid- to long-term. Hydrogen is traded between countries in different forms, such as ammonia, liquid hydrogen, and LOHC (Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier), on account of the renewable energy resources in exporting countries, the type of hydrogen use in importing countries, and the technological maturity; however, it is not traded only in a singular form. As marine transportation of ammonia and LOHC is a relatively mature technology compared to that of liquid hydrogen, in this article, we analyzed the technical feasibility of liquid hydrogen carriers while identifying detailed technologies required for their future development and securing possible designs through various technical alternatives.

A Study on Searching for Export Candidate Countries of the Korean Food and Beverage Industry Using Node2vec Graph Embedding and Light GBM Link Prediction (Node2vec 그래프 임베딩과 Light GBM 링크 예측을 활용한 식음료 산업의 수출 후보국가 탐색 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.73-95
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    • 2021
  • This study uses Node2vec graph embedding method and Light GBM link prediction to explore undeveloped export candidate countries in Korea's food and beverage industry. Node2vec is the method that improves the limit of the structural equivalence representation of the network, which is known to be relatively weak compared to the existing link prediction method based on the number of common neighbors of the network. Therefore, the method is known to show excellent performance in both community detection and structural equivalence of the network. The vector value obtained by embedding the network in this way operates under the condition of a constant length from an arbitrarily designated starting point node. Therefore, it has the advantage that it is easy to apply the sequence of nodes as an input value to the model for downstream tasks such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. Based on these features of the Node2vec graph embedding method, this study applied the above method to the international trade information of the Korean food and beverage industry. Through this, we intend to contribute to creating the effect of extensive margin diversification in Korea in the global value chain relationship of the industry. The optimal predictive model derived from the results of this study recorded a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.79, and an F1 score of 0.86, showing excellent performance. This performance was shown to be superior to that of the binary classifier based on Logistic Regression set as the baseline model. In the baseline model, a precision of 0.95 and a recall of 0.73 were recorded, and an F1 score of 0.83 was recorded. In addition, the light GBM-based optimal prediction model derived from this study showed superior performance than the link prediction model of previous studies, which is set as a benchmarking model in this study. The predictive model of the previous study recorded only a recall rate of 0.75, but the proposed model of this study showed better performance which recall rate is 0.79. The difference in the performance of the prediction results between benchmarking model and this study model is due to the model learning strategy. In this study, groups were classified by the trade value scale, and prediction models were trained differently for these groups. Specific methods are (1) a method of randomly masking and learning a model for all trades without setting specific conditions for trade value, (2) arbitrarily masking a part of the trades with an average trade value or higher and using the model method, and (3) a method of arbitrarily masking some of the trades with the top 25% or higher trade value and learning the model. As a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the performance of the model trained by randomly masking some of the trades with the above-average trade value in this method was the best and appeared stably. It was found that most of the results of potential export candidates for Korea derived through the above model appeared appropriate through additional investigation. Combining the above, this study could suggest the practical utility of the link prediction method applying Node2vec and Light GBM. In addition, useful implications could be derived for weight update strategies that can perform better link prediction while training the model. On the other hand, this study also has policy utility because it is applied to trade transactions that have not been performed much in the research related to link prediction based on graph embedding. The results of this study support a rapid response to changes in the global value chain such as the recent US-China trade conflict or Japan's export regulations, and I think that it has sufficient usefulness as a tool for policy decision-making.

Control of Chemical Residues in Animal Foods - Problems and their Countermesures - (동물성 식품에 대한 안전성 확보의 문제점과 대책)

  • 이문한;신광순
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.139-158
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    • 1990
  • Heavy resposibility is placed on the veterinarian and the livestock and aquatic animal producers to observe the period for withdrawal of a drug prior to marketing to assure that illegal concentrations of drug residues in meat, milk, egg, fish and other animal foods do not occur. This is essential from a public health standpoint because levels of residues in excess of those legalIy permitted in edible tissues may produce injurious effects when consumed over a long time span. With greater use of animal drugs of chemicals required in production of food crops, livestock and aquatic animals, the possibility of human being continuously exposed to drug and chemical residues for a life time is unequivocally evident. Korean authorities concerned Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery and Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, have recenly made their own regulations to control chemical residues in beef, pork and chicken independently. Consequently, inspection for the chemical residues also have been or will be carried out by the two authorities concerned without any cooperations. It is undoubtfulI to have a single regulation and national residue program for control residual chemicals in animal foods and that the tolerance levels should be established in milk, egg, and freshwater fish. Besides, we have no complete standard methods to analyze the residual chemicals and the methods have not been evaluated their efficiency, precise, accuracy and limit of detection. In this paper, the analytical methods and national residue programs in foreign countries are introduced and discussed and the status of animal food safety in this country is also reviewed.

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A Study on Positioning Strategy for Korean Animation Industry in the Chinese Market (한국 애니메이션 산업의 중국시장 진출전략 : 포지셔닝(Positioning)전략 및 실행방안)

  • Kim, Young-Jae
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.11
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    • pp.55-72
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    • 2007
  • Entering the Chinese animation market is a requirement for the survival and growth of Korean animation industry. While the size of Korean domestic animation market is not big enough to explain the investment for the production of animation project, the rapidly growing Chinese market provides a great potential for Korean animation. However, in recent few years, a high entrance barrier has been raised by Chinese government who aggressively enforce the strong policy to protect and develop the Chinese animation industry, by blocking the foreign animations out of Chinese domestic TV broadcasting. As a result, Chinese animation industry has witnessed a rapid growth enough to satisfy the domestic TV programming needs, and there seems no room for Korean animation to be exposed to Chinese animation consumers, whether through export of the program or co-production with Chinese companies. Through the study on Chinese government's policies and recent development of Chinese animation industry, this article is suggesting a new strategy for Korean animation industry to effectively exploit the Chinese market. In order to overcome the entrance barrier, Korean animation industry should satisfy the needs of Chinese government and industry for mutual benefit of both countries, and it can be accomplished by positioning Korean animation industry as a partner for Chinese industry, helping China in its way to the No.1 position in the global animation market. By providing the creative development capability, business knowhow and global marketing network for the co-production project, Korean animation industry can make a win-win situation for both countries, and at this point of stage, it would be the most effective way to make a meaningful presence of Korean animation industry in Chinese market.

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Research of Hydraulic Breaker with Rock Properties Predictability Using the ICT (ICT 융합기술을 활용한 암반특성 예측기능을 가진 유압 브레이커 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Bok Joong;Lee, Kil Soo;Lim, Hoon;Lee, Ho Yeon;Lee, Myung Gyu;Kwon, Hyuk Jin;Kim, Kab Tae;Joo, Jin Moo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.683-689
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    • 2017
  • We have carried out the development for hydraulic breaker which can be operated by optimal mode with ICT convergence technology. This developed system can predict the rock properties. Moreover, this system can maximize the energy efficient with intelligent control of hydraulic system. In order to provide the optimal impact force, this system can measure the descending depth of piston with the proximity sensor and discriminate the rock properties with the measuring data and control the piston stroke using solenoid valve eventually. In addition, we have developed the controller, display module and operating device for cascade (multi-level impact) system and applied the module which can communicate each system by wireless communications. In conclusion, the control system which can control the multi-level impact in accordance with strength of rocks has been developed and approved by several field tests.