• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수요예측모형

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An Influence of the Korean Wave on Chinese Tourism to South Korea (중국인의 방한관광에 대한 한류의 영향)

  • Choi, Kyung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.526-539
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the Korean Wave on Chinese tourism to South Korea through a behavioral analysis of Chinese tourists in the general group package tours. China suppressed the needs of the Chinese people's geographical movement and imposed restrictions on information about the outside world with the use of a policy of "closure" for a long time. But since reforms and open-door policies were introduced in China, especially in the context of relaxation of control policies over Chinese outbound tourism after the mid-1990's, more and more Chinese make trips abroad including visits to South Korea. In this situation, the recent Korean Wave(especially, drama/film) describes the Korean national image by forming a bridge between fiction and reality and plays a pivotal role in broadening or reconstructing the geographical imagination of the Chinese people who have been historically isolated from the outside world. Although Chinese have imagined the Korean nationscape on the basis of geopolitical or economic factors in the past, they have currently broadened or reconstructed their geographical imagination to include socio-cultural factors related closely to the Korean way of life due to the recent Korean Wave. This newly constructed geographical imagination led by the Korean Wave functions as an important pulling factor in Chinese destination choices, affecting Chinese tourists' motivation formation and the recommendation of main attractions. The more influential the Korean Wave is on their destination choice, the more the respondents select the cultural factors in both their motivation for tourism to South Korea and their recommendations of tourism attractions to other people. Through the analysis results of both satisfaction and intention to revisit, the more influential the Korean Wave is on their destination choice, the higher is the degree of both satisfaction and intention to revisit. In other words, although Chinese tourism to South Korea is chiefly in the general group package tours, Chinese tourists who are influenced by Korean Wave on their destination choice have more attachment to(or affection for) Korea as a tourism destination. This result suggests that the Korean Wave affects qualitative change - that is, change of attitude - as well as quantitative change in Chinese demand for tourism to South Korea.

The Analyses of Geographers지 Roles and Demands in Korean GIS Industries (GIS 산업에 있어서 지리학의 역할 및 수요에 대한 분석)

  • Chang Eun-mi
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.643-664
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to review what geographers have contributed to GIS industries and national needs. To-be-geographers and geographers are expected to meet the gap between what we have teamed in school and what we have to do after graduation. The characteristics of GIS industry in the 1990 are summarized with approximate evaluation of the contribution of geographers in each stage. Author introduced the requirement for the licenses of geomatics and geospatial engineering experts and the other licenses, which are important to get a job in GIS industry from 2003 to 2004. A set of questionnaire on the user's requirements was given to GIS people in private companies and public GIS research centers and analyzed. Author found that they put an emphasis on hands-on experiences and programming skills. no advantages or geography such as capability or integration and inter-disciplinary collaboration were not appreciated. The prospects for the GIS tend to be positive but the reflectance of the prospect was not accompanied by at the same degree of preference for geography. Most government strategies for the next ten years' GIS focus on new-growth leading industries. SWOT(strength, weakness, opportunity, threat) analysis of geography for GIS industry will give some directions such as telematics, regional marketing strategies with web-based GIS technology, location based service. That means intra-disciplinary study in geography will evoke the potentiality of GIS, compared with interdisciplinary studies.

A Study on Collection and Usage of Panel Data on On-board Job Taking and Separation of Korean Seafarers (한국선원의 승선과 이직에 대한 패널자료 구축과 활용방안)

  • Park, Yong-An
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 2016
  • Seafarers are an essential resource in maritime industries, which provide navigation skills, vessel maneuvering skills and fishing skills in the fishery industry. They also work as a driving force in pilotage, port operation, vessel traffic service, and marine safety. Other areas in maritime services, which rely on seafarer include safety management of ships, supervisory activities, and maritime accident assessment. In these ways, Korean seafarers have contributed to the growth of Korean economy. However, there have been issues of high separation rate, shortage of supply, multi-nationality, multiplicity of culture caused by employment of foreign seafarers, and aging. The present paper finds that maritime officers and fishery officers demonstrate differences in the statistics of on-board job taking and separation: the separation rate of fishery officers is higher than that of maritime officers. The existing data and statistics by the Korea Seafarer's Welfare & Employment Center could be improved by changing its structure from time series to panel data. The Korea Seafarer's Welfare & Employment Center is the ideal institution for collecting the panel data, as it has already accumulated and published relevant statistics regarding seafarer. The basic design method of the panel data is to adopt and improve it by including the information on ratings of maritime and fishery industries, ranks in a ship, personal information, family life, and career goal. Panel data are useful in short- and long-term forecasts of supply of Korean seafarers; demand evaluation of education, training, and reeducation of the seafarers; demographical dynamic analysis on Korean seafarers; inducement policy of long-term on board job taking in harmony with man-power demands in marine industries such as pilotage service; implementation of job attractiveness policy on Korean seafarers; and employment stabilization of Korean seafarers.

Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.

A Study on Market Expansion Strategy via Two-Stage Customer Pre-segmentation Based on Customer Innovativeness and Value Orientation (고객혁신성과 가치지향성 기반의 2단계 사전 고객세분화를 통한 시장 확산 전략)

  • Heo, Tae-Young;Yoo, Young-Sang;Kim, Young-Myoung
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-97
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    • 2007
  • R&D into future technologies should be conducted in conjunction with technological innovation strategies that are linked to corporate survival within a framework of information and knowledge-based competitiveness. As such, future technology strategies should be ensured through open R&D organizations. The development of future technologies should not be conducted simply on the basis of future forecasts, but should take into account customer needs in advance and reflect them in the development of the future technologies or services. This research aims to select as segmentation variables the customers' attitude towards accepting future telecommunication technologies and their value orientation in their everyday life, as these factors wilt have the greatest effect on the demand for future telecommunication services and thus segment the future telecom service market. Likewise, such research seeks to segment the market from the stage of technology R&D activities and employ the results to formulate technology development strategies. Based on the customer attitude towards accepting new technologies, two groups were induced, and a hierarchical customer segmentation model was provided to conduct secondary segmentation of the two groups on the basis of their respective customer value orientation. A survey was conducted in June 2006 on 800 consumers aged 15 to 69, residing in Seoul and five other major South Korean cities, through one-on-one interviews. The samples were divided into two sub-groups according to their level of acceptance of new technology; a sub-group demonstrating a high level of technology acceptance (39.4%) and another sub-group with a comparatively lower level of technology acceptance (60.6%). These two sub-groups were further divided each into 5 smaller sub-groups (10 total smaller sub-groups) through two rounds of segmentation. The ten sub-groups were then analyzed in their detailed characteristics, including general demographic characteristics, usage patterns in existing telecom services such as mobile service, broadband internet and wireless internet and the status of ownership of a computing or information device and the desire or intention to purchase one. Through these steps, we were able to statistically prove that each of these 10 sub-groups responded to telecom services as independent markets. We found that each segmented group responds as an independent individual market. Through correspondence analysis, the target segmentation groups were positioned in such a way as to facilitate the entry of future telecommunication services into the market, as well as their diffusion and transferability.

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An approach to capture travelers' choice behaviour in response to unexperienced transportation modes: A case study of Personal Rapid Transit (미경험 교통수단에 대한 이용자 선택행태 분석: Personal Rapid Transit 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Jeong-Whon;Shin, Seung-Kwon;Choi, Jung-Yoon
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.1730-1738
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    • 2011
  • Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) has emerged as a promising alternative transportation mode for transit-oriented sustainable communities by creating compact and walkable environments with competitive construction and operational costs. This study seeks to capture the changes in travel mode choice behavior in response to the introduction of PRT to travelers who have no previous experience of using it. A critical issue in modeling the PRT mode choice is how to capture travelers' perception and evaluation of the unexperienced travel mode. The data used come from questionnaire surveys, in which RP (Revealed Preference) and SP (Stated Preference) data were collected in relation to travel mode choices with and without PRT systems. The questionnaire was designed especially for mitigating the potential bias in favor of or against choosing PRT. In addition, an efficient approach was proposed to reduce the number of SP questions by avoiding the complex fractional factorial design which tends to make it difficult for respondents to keep their attention throughout the survey. The analysis results show that the proposed approach is able to realistically capture the effects of explanatory variables on the travel mode choice. Discrete choice models are developed to predict travelers' mode choices under different choice scenarios by varying PRT system specifications and operational characteristics. PRT patronages are projected for two different test sites using the developed PRT mode choice models.

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Analysis of Water Quality Improvement in Downstream River of Heightening Irrigation Dam through the Reservoir Operation (둑높이기 농업용저수지의 운영을 통한 하천 수질개선 효과 분석)

  • Jee, Yong-Keun;Lee, Mi-Seon;Lee, Jin-Hee;Jang, Jea-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.9
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    • pp.929-941
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, interest in river environment such as riparian landscape, water quality and ecological conservation has been growing with increasing recreation on agricultural river watershed. That caused the increase of necessity of water resources development, one of solutions for the diversification of agricultural water demand and shortages. In this respects, heightening irrigation dam, as a part of the 4-major river restoration project, is necessary to secure not only additional agricultural water but also instream flow for water quality improvement. However, operation plan of irrigation dam still not be clear. In this study, additional storage which secured through heightening irrigation dam was estimated using SWAT model. And instream flow effects on water quality of downstream were evaluated. The findings show that the additional water supply will contribute positively to water quantity and quality of downstream. The results show a 2~10% water quality improvement effect on nutrients, as well as an 1~8% water quantity increasing effect. In particular, additional storage can be effectively supplied from February to April by the reservoir operation. However, maintaining better water quality in irrigation reservoirs is important because the water quality of irrigation reservoirs can be negatively impacts the water quality in downstream of reservoirs.

Study and Evaluation of an Incident Detection Algorithm for Urban Freeways (도시고속도로 돌발상황 감지 알고리즘 개발에 관한 연구 및 평가)

  • Seo Jeong-ho;In Sung-man;Kim Young-chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.3 no.1 s.4
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2004
  • A series of accidents, which are non-recurrent and non-anticipated, are called incidents. These incidents make standard traffic flows interrupt, which result in the decrease of road capacity and a number of social and economic costs, such as the traffic congestion and air pollution. In order to prevent the hazard of incidents, domestic and foreign traffic management center are likely to opt auto-sense system with algorithms of auto-incident sense. However, it is evaluated that the algorithms have a low function with frequent wrong alarms, even if they accurately ry to speculate the incidents. In the case of bottleneck which has lack of road capacity, compared with other roads, due to inefficient road structured over-capacity of the demand of on-off ramp, the incidents regularly take place. Nonetheless, it can be more difficult to speculate the auto-incidents sense owing to similar incidents, such as the queue of in-out flows of cars and the change of road line. Throughout this research, the function of the model has improved excluding near road line in the module of the incidents which is based on the auto-incidents algorithms during the sense of the congestion of ramp areas.

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The Development of Travel Demand Nowcasting Model Based on Travelers' Attention: Focusing on Web Search Traffic Information (여행자 관심 기반 스마트 여행 수요 예측 모형 개발: 웹검색 트래픽 정보를 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-185
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    • 2017
  • Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.

An Exploratory Research for Development of Design of Sensor-based Smart Clothing - Focused on the Healthcare Clothing Based on Bio-monitoring Technology - (센서 기반형 스마트 의류의 디자인 개발을 위한 탐색적 연구 - 생체 신호 센서 기술에 기반한 건강관리용 의류를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho Ha-Kyung;Lee Joo-Hyeon;Lee Chung-Keun;Lee Myoung-Ho
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2006
  • Since the late 1990s, 'smart clothing' has been developed in a various way to meet the need of users and to help people more friendly interact with computers through its various designs. Recently, various applications of smart clothing concept have been presented by researchers. Among the various applications, smart clothing with a health care system is most likely to gain the highest demand rate in the market. Among them, smart clothing for check-up of health status with its sensors is expected to sell better than other types of smart clothing on the market. Under this circumstance, research and development for this field have been accelerated furthermore. This research institution has invented biometric sensors suitable for the smart clothing, and has developed a design to diagnose various diseases such as cardiac disorder and respiratory diseases. The newly developed smart clothing in this study looks similar to the previous inventions, but people can feel more comfortable in it with its fabric interaction built in it. When people wear it, the health status of the wearers is diagnosed and its signals are transmitted to the connected computer so the result can be easily monitored in real time. This smart clothing is a new kind of clothing as a supporting system for preventing various cardiac disorder and respiratory diseases using its biometric sensor built-in, and is also an archetype to show how smart clothing can work on the market.

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