• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수명 예측

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The Life Expectancy Making Model for Construction Equipment (건설장비 수명결정 모델)

  • Lee, Yongsu;Kim, Cheol Min
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.5D
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    • pp.453-461
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    • 2012
  • Life analysis is conducted for economic analysis of equipment or facilities. The purpose of life analysis is to predict future indicators for scrapping construction equipment, and establish and utilize a wide variety of business strategies according to data predictions. First, this study shows the methods to figure out average life, life expectancy and life prediction of construction equipment and the analysis of life making methods, using survival curves. Second, the study proposes and examines the life expectancy making model depending on revenues and expenses. The result of the study reveals that the economic life of the same equipment varies with expenses, revenues and the initial cost. The life expectancy making model for construction equipment reflects respective management status for equipment and will help efficient management for companies.

A Study on the Storage Life Estimation Method for Applying Gamma Process Model to Accelerated Life Test Data (가속수명시험 자료에 감마 과정 모델을 적용한 저장 수명 예측 기법 연구)

  • Park, Sungho;Kim, Jaehoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.30-36
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a method to estimate a storage life for loss of stabilizer content as storage periods using accelerated life test data. The estimate of storage life based on deterministic accelerated life test and degradation data cannot describe a condition distribution and storage life distribution. Previously, the method to show the condition distribution and storage life distribution by using gamma process has been studied. But it has limitation because it is impossible to collect the deterioration data at initial production phase. The estimated storage life presented by this study shows the similar value to previous studies and the method can describe the condition distribution and storage life distribution. So, the estimation method studied in this paper can be used for a life cycle management about deterioration of propellant for propulsion unit or components of missile, too.

Empirical Bayesian Prediction Analysis on Accelerated Lifetime Data (가속수명자료를 이용한 경험적 베이즈 예측분석)

  • Cho, Geon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1997
  • In accelerated life tests, the failure time of an item is observed under a high stress level, and based on the time the performances of items are investigated at the normal stress level. In this paper, when the mean of the prior of a failure rate is known in the exponential lifetime distribution with censored accelerated failure time data, we utilize the empirical Bayesian method by using the moment estimators in order to estimate the parameters of the prior distribution and obtain the empirical Bayesian predictive density and predictive intervals for a future observation under the normal stress level.

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Optimization of the Tool Life Prediction Using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리즘을 이용한 공구 수명 예측 최적화)

  • Kong, Jung-Shik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.338-343
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    • 2018
  • Recently, a computer numerical control (CNC) machine is used widely for mold making in various industries. In the operation of a CNC machine, the production quality and safety of workers are becoming increasingly important as the product process increases. A variety of tool life prediction studies has been conducted to standardize the quality of production and improve reproducibility. When the tool life is predicted using the conventional tool life equation, there is a large error between the experimental result and result by the conventional tool life equation. In this paper, an algorithm that can predict the precise tool life was implemented using a genetic algorithm.

Lifetime Prediction of Existing Highway Bridges Using System Reliability Approach (실제 교량의 시스템 신뢰성해석에 기초한 수명예측)

  • Yang, Seung Ie
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.365-373
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, the system reliability concept was presented to predict the lifespan of bridges. Lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions) were used to model real bridges to predict their remaining life. Using the system reliability concept and lifetime distribution functions (survivor functions), a program called LIFETIME was developed. The survivor functions give the reliability of component at time t. The program was applied to an existing Colorado state highway bridge to predict the failure probability of the time-dependent system. The bridge was modeled as a system, with failure probability computed using time-dependent deteriorating models.

Lifetime Prediction of PTFE Electrical Insulation Material Using Thermal Analysis Technique (열분석장치를 적용한 PTFE 전기절연재의 수명 예측 연구)

  • Yoon, Sung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2011.04a
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    • pp.296-297
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    • 2011
  • A series of thermogravimetric analysis tests were conducted to predict the lifetime of the PTFE electrical insulation material. The prepared PTFE samples were heated from $25^{\circ}C$ to $700^{\circ}C$ at different heating rates. The kinetic energy of the PTFE was calculated from the logarithmic heating rate versus reciprocal temperature curves at constant conversion levels. Also, the lifetime of the PTFE for a given operating temperature can be predicted using the relationship between the activation energy and the estimated lifetime proposed by Toop.

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Prediction of the shelf-life of ammunition by time series analysis (시계열분석을 적용한 저장탄약수명 예측 기법 연구 - 추진장약의 안정제함량 변화를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jung-Woo;Kim, Hee-Bo;Kim, Young-In;Hong, Yoon-Gee
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2011
  • To predict the shelf-life of ammunition stockpiled in intermediate have practical meaning as a core value of combat support. This research is to Predict the shelf-life of ammunition by applying time series analysis based on report from ASRP of the 155mm, KD541 performed for 6 years. This study applied time series analysis using 'Mini-tab program' to measure the amount of stabilizer as time passes by is different from the other one that uses regression analysis. The average shelf-life of KD541 drawn by time series analysis was 43 years and the lowest shelf-life assessed on the 95% confidence level was 35 years.

Prediction of Fretting Fatigue Life for Lap Joint Structures of Aircraft (항공기 겹침이음 조립구조의 프레팅 피로수명 예측)

  • Kwon, Jung-Ho;Joo, Seon-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.642-652
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    • 2009
  • Most of lap jointed aircraft structures encounter the fretting damages, which provoke fretting cracks prematurely and lead to significant reduction of fatigue life. In the case of ageing aircrafts especially, this fretting fatigue problem is a fatal threat for the safety and airworthiness. Recently, as the service life extension program(SLEP) of ageing aircrafts has become a hot issue, the prediction of fretting fatigue life is also indispensable. On these backgrounds, a series of experimental tests of fretting fatigue on bolted lap joint specimens, were performed. And the fretting crack initiation and propagation life of each specimen were evaluated using existing and newly proposed prediction models with the fretting parameters obtained from the FEA results for elasto-plastic contact stress analyses. The validations of prediction models were also discussed, comparing the prediction results with experimental test ones.

Comparisons of Life Prediction Method of Copper Alloy of Regenerative Cooling Chamber for Thrust Chamber (액체로켓 연소기 재생냉각 챔버용 구리합금의 피로수명 예측식 비교)

  • Lee, Keum-Oh;Ryu, Chul-Sung;Choi, Hwan-Seok
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2010
  • A study about the fatigue life of copper alloy which is used in inner jacket of regenerative cooling chamber of liquid rocket engine has been performed. Mechanical properties of the material and fatigue life have been taken from tensile tests and low-cycle fatigue tests at room temperature and several elevated temperatures. Original universal slopes method, modified universal slopes method, Mitchell's method, Baumel and Seeger's method, and Ong's method have been used for predicting the fatigue data. It was found that the novel life prediction method should be developed for the copper alloys since almost all data have not been predicted well with the widely used methods.

Expectation of the Fatigue Life at the Truss Bridge Including Improper Welding (불량용접을 갖는 트러스교의 피로수명)

  • Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.191-198
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    • 1999
  • 수많은 판형부재로 구성된 대형 트러스교에서는 불량용접된 부재가 존재할 수 있으며, 이는 교량의 피로수명에 결정적인 영향을 줄 수 있다. 이러한 교량에서 용접불량부를 조사하고 부재단면중 용접불량을 고려한 유효단면을 가정하여 피로수명을 예측하는 방법에 대하여 연구하였다. 이를 위하여 피로수명에 영향을 미치는 교통량을 분석하고 차량모델을 가정하여 유효등가응력을 산정하였으며 모형피로시험에서 구한 응력-반복횟수곡선을 이용하여 피로수명을 예측하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 분석기법은 불량용접부와 교통량이 강교량의 피로수명에 미치는 영향을 예측하는데 매우 유용함을 알 수 있다.

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