• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수명 예측

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A Study on the Characteristics of Rental Real Estate Households and Real Estate Rental Income (임대부동산 가구특성과 부동산임대소득에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Byung-Woo;Oh, Dong-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.906-917
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    • 2021
  • This study focused on real estate rental income, which is being interested as a means of preparing for old age in the age of low growth and aging. Rental income is seen to function as a safety net of society at a time when it is necessary to live a difficult old age due to the disconnection of income and the extension of the average life span. Therefore, this study conducted the following study on 1,025 households that own rental real estate nationwide. First, the relationship between the characteristics of the household of the rental real estate owner and the real estate rental income was analyzed, and second, it examined whether there is a difference in rental income between the group that engages in income activities other than rental income and the group that only has rental income without income activities. As a result of the analysis, among the demographic and sociological characteristics, gender and spouse were identified as significant variables in rental income. Among the economic characteristics, income and total debt were found to be significant variables. In the case of income activities, rental income was low, and rental income was high when the total debt was high. However, if interest rates rise and the economic recession is prolonged due to unpredictable causes, the owner may suffer from double-use. In preparation for this, it is necessary to review real estate policy alternatives such as easing the period of real estate holdings.

An Analysis for the Effect of ESP/gas Lift Hybrid System on Oil Productivity (전기공저펌프/가스리프트 혼합시스템이 오일 생산성에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Hyesoo;Iranzi, Joseph;Wang, Jihoon;Son, Hanam
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • Selection of a suitable artificial lift is important in terms of efficient operation and economics for oil production. In general, process of well design includes the selection of artificial lift, but the oil recovery could be enhanced by use of hybrid system combined with two types of artificial lift method according to reservoir condition for oil production. Electric submersible pump (ESP), as a presentative artificial lift method, is a manner for supplying the pressure in the lower part of oil well by using of a multi-stage centrifugal pump with an electric energy. However, there is a disadvantage that has a limit to the application period because of mechanical defection on ESP. Accordingly, it is possible to reduce the shutdown time of production well by applying the ESP/Gas lift hybrid system, which is to switch to a gas lift when an ESP is defective. This study describes the effect of ESP/gas lift hybrid system compared with ESP method for a onshore horizontal well locating in the of Permian basin, USA. As a result of study, ESP/gas lift hybrid system could make more effective productivity than ESP method. Also, we quantitatively predicted how much economic benefit would be obtained when the hybrid system was applied in the production well.

Development of Flow Loop System to Evaluate the Performance of ESP in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells (비전통 유·가스정에서 ESP 성능 평가를 위한 Flow Loop 시스템 개발)

  • Sung-Jea Lee;Jun-Ho Choi;Jeong-Hwan Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2023
  • The electric submersible pump (ESP) has been operating in production wells around the world because of its high applicability and operational efficiency among artificial lift techniques. When operating an ESP in a reservoir, variables such as temperature, pressure, gas/oil ratio, and flow rate are factors that affect ESP performance. In particular, free gas in the production fluid is a major factor that reduces the life and operational efficiency of ESP. This study presents the flow loop system which can implement the performance and damage tests of ESP considering field operating conditions to quantitatively analyze the variables that affect ESP performance. The developed apparatus in an integrated system that can diagnose the failure and causes of ESP, and detect leak of tubing by linking ESP and tubing as one system. In this study, the flow conditions for stable operation of ESP were identified through single phase and two phase flow experiments related to evaluation for the performance of ESP. The results provide the basic data to develop the failure prediction and diagnosis program of ESP, and are expected to be used for real-time monitoring for optimal operating conditions and failure diagnosis for ESP operation.

Development of Steel Composite Cable Stayed Bridge Weigh-in-Motion System using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 강합성 사장교 차량하중분석시스템 개발)

  • Park, Min-Seok;Jo, Byung-Wan;Lee, Jungwhee;Kim, Sungkon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.799-808
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    • 2008
  • The analysis of vehicular loads reflecting the domestic traffic circumstances is necessary for the development of adequate design live load models in the analysis and design of cable-supported bridges or the development of fatigue load models to predict the remaining lifespan of the bridges. This study intends to develop an ANN(artificial neural network)-based Bridge WIM system and Influence line-based Bridge WIM system for obtaining information concerning the loads conditions of vehicles crossing bridge structures by exploiting the signals measured by strain gauges installed at the bottom surface of the bridge superstructure. This study relies on experimental data corresponding to the travelling of hundreds of random vehicles rather than on theoretical data generated through numerical simulations to secure data sets for the training and test of the ANN. In addition, data acquired from 3 types of vehicles weighed statically at measurement station and then crossing the bridge repeatedly are also exploited to examine the accuracy of the trained ANN. The results obtained through the proposed ANN-based analysis method, the influence line analysis method considering the local behavior of the bridge are compared for an example cable-stayed bridge. In view of the results related to the cable-stayed bridge, the cross beam ANN analysis method appears to provide more remarkable load analysis results than the cross beam influence line method.

Three Stage Performances and Herding of Domestic and Foreign Films in the Korean Market (한국 시장에서 상영한 한국영화와 외국영화의 3단계 성과와 군집행동(Herding behavior)현상의 분석)

  • Hahn, Minhi;Kang, Hyunmo;Kim, Dae-Seung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.21-48
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    • 2010
  • This article analyzes film performances in the Korean movie market utilizing three-stage models that incorporate available information in three different stages of the movie life cycle, i.e., at the time of its release, at the end of the first week, and at the end of its life cycle. Based on the premise that the performance of a movie is affected principally by factors of scale, evaluation, and competition, we attempted to ascertain the effects on these factors on performances, and how they differ in different stages. Also, by analyzing domestic and foreign movies released in Korea separately, we were able to compare the different effects of the three factors on the performances of the two categories of movies. Additionally, our movie performance models incorporated herding behavior among the customers. Our results demonstrate that herding is prominently observed after the first week only for domestic movies. In general, the scale factor has been shown to be most important for movie performances in all stages. For foreign films, it is particularly critical for the first week and total performances. Whereas the evaluation factor influences domestic film performance more strongly at the screen choice stage, it affects the performance of foreign films more strongly in the later stages of the life cycle. As compared to foreign films, domestic film performance appears to be more sensitive to the competition factor. We also discuss the effects of covariates such as genre and symbolicity on movie performance.

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A Study on the Metadata Schema for the Collection of Sensor Data in Weapon Systems (무기체계 CBM+ 적용 및 확대를 위한 무기체계 센서데이터 수집용 메타데이터 스키마 연구)

  • Jinyoung Kim;Hyoung-seop Shim;Jiseong Son;Yun-Young Hwang
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.161-169
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    • 2023
  • Due to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, innovation in various technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data (Big Data), and cloud (Cloud) is accelerating, and data is considered an important asset. With the innovation of these technologies, various efforts are being made to lead technological innovation in the field of defense science and technology. In Korea, the government also announced the "Defense Innovation 4.0 Plan," which consists of five key points and 16 tasks to foster advanced science and technology forces in March 2023. The plan also includes the establishment of a Condition-Based Maintenance system (CBM+) to improve the operability and availability of weapons systems and reduce defense costs. Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) aims to secure the reliability and availability of the weapon system and analyze changes in equipment's state information to identify them as signs of failure and defects, and CBM+ is a concept that adds Remaining Useful Life prediction technology to the existing CBM concept [1]. In order to establish a CBM+ system for the weapon system, sensors are installed and sensor data are required to obtain condition information of the weapon system. In this paper, we propose a sensor data metadata schema to efficiently and effectively manage sensor data collected from sensors installed in various weapons systems.

Estimate Customer Churn Rate with the Review-Feedback Process: Empirical Study with Text Mining, Econometrics, and Quai-Experiment Methodologies (리뷰-피드백 프로세스를 통한 고객 이탈률 추정: 텍스트 마이닝, 계량경제학, 준실험설계 방법론을 활용한 실증적 연구)

  • Choi Kim;Jaemin Kim;Gahyung Jeong;Jaehong Park
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 2021
  • Obviating user churn is a prominent strategy to capitalize on online games, eluding the initial investments required for the development of another. Extant literature has examined factors that may induce user churn, mainly from perspectives of motives to play and game as a virtual society. However, such works largely dismiss the service aspects of online games. Dissatisfaction of user needs constitutes a crucial aspect for user churn, especially with online services where users expect a continuous improvement in service quality via software updates. Hence, we examine the relationship between a game's quality management and its user base. With text mining and survival analysis, we identify complaint factors that act as key predictors of user churn. Additionally, we find that enjoyment-related factors are greater threats to user base than usability-related ones. Furthermore, subsequent quasi-experiment shows that improvements in the complaint factors (i.e., via game patches) curb churn and foster user retention. Our results shed light on the responsive role of developers in retaining the user base of online games. Moreover, we provide practical insights for game operators, i.e., to identify and prioritize more perilous complaint factors in planning successive game patches.

Development of Algorithm for Vibration Analysis Automation of Rotating Equipments Based on ISO 20816 (ISO 20816 기반 회전기기 진동분석 자동화 알고리즘 개발)

  • JaeWoong Lee;Ugiyeon Lee;Jeongseok Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2024
  • Facility diagnosis is essential for the smooth operation and life extension of rotating equipment used in industrial sites. Compared to other diagnostic methods, vibration diagnosis can find most of the initial defects, such as unbalance, alignment failure, bearing defects and resonance, compared to other diagnostic methods. Therefore, vibration analysis is the most commonly used facility diagnosis method in industrial sites, and is usefully used as a predictive preservation (PdM) technology to manage the condition of the facility. However, since the vibration diagnosis method is performed based on experience based on the standard, it is carried out by experts. Therefore, it is intended to contribute to the reliability of the facility by establishing a system that anyone can easily judge defects by establishing a vibration diagnosis method performed based on experience as a knowledgeable code system. An algorithm was developed based on the ISO-20816 standard for vibration measurement, and the reliability was verified by comparing the results of vibration measurement at various demonstration sites such as petrochemical plant compressors, hydrogen charging stations, and industrial machinery with the results of analysis using a development system. The developed algorithm can contribute to predictive maintenance (PdM) technology that anyone can diagnose the condition of the rotating machine at industrial sites and identify defects early to replace parts at the exact time of replacement. Furthermore, it is expected that it will contribute to reducing maintenance costs and downtime due to the failure of rotating machines when applied to various industrial sites such as oil refining facilities, transportation, production facilities, and aviation facilities.

Estimation of Structural Deterioration of Sewer using Markov Chain Model (마르코프 연쇄 모델을 이용한 하수관로의 구조적 노후도 추정)

  • Kang, Byong Jun;Yoo, Soon Yu;Zhang, Chuanli;Park, Kyoo Hong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2023
  • Sewer deterioration models can offer important information on prediction of future condition of the asset to decision makers in their implementing sewer pipe networks management program. In this study, Markov chain model was used to estimate sewer deterioration trend based on the historical structural condition assessment data obtained by CCTV inspection. The data used in this study were limited to Hume pipe with diameter of 450 mm and 600 mm in three sub-catchment areas in city A, which were collected by CCTV inspection projects performed in 1998-1999 and 2010-2011. As a result, it was found that sewers in sub-catchment area EM have deteriorated faster than those in other two sub-catchments. Various main defects were to generate in 29% of 450 mm sewers and 38% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while serious failure in 62% of 450 mm sewers and 74% of 600 mm in 100 years after the installation in sub-catchment area EM. In sub-catchment area SN, main defects were to generate in 26% of 450 mm sewers and 35% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation, while in sub-catchment area HK main defects were to generate in 27% of 450 mm sewers and 37% of 600 mm in 35 years after the installation. Larger sewer pipes of 600 mm were found to deteriorate faster than smaller sewer pipes of 450 mm by about 12 years. Assuming that the percentage of main defects generation could be set as 40% to estimate the life expectancy of the sewers, it was estimated as 60 years in sub-catchment area SN, 42 years in sub-catchment area EM, 59 years in sub-catchment area HK for 450 mm sewer pipes, respectively. For 600 mm sewer pipes, on the other hand, it was estimated as 43 years, 34 years, 39 years in sub-catchment areas SN, EM, and HK, respectively.

A Study on Chloride Threshold Level of Blended Cement Mortar Using Polarization Resistance Method (분극저항 측정기법을 이용한 혼합 시멘트 모르타르의 임계 염화물 농도에 대한 연구)

  • Song, Ha-Won;Lee, Chang-Hong;Lee, Kewn-Chu;Ann, Ki-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2009
  • The importance of chloride ions in the corrosion of steel in concrete has led to the concept for chloride threshold level (CTL). The CTL can be defined as the content of chlorides at the steel depth that is necessary to sustain local passive film breakdown and hence initiate the corrosion process. Despite the importance of the CTL, due to the uncertainty determining the actual limits in various environments for chloride-induced corrosion, conservative values such as 0.4% by weight of cement or 1.2 kg in 1 $m^3$ concrete have been used in predicting the corrosion-free service life of reinforced concrete structures. The paper studies the CTL for blended cement concrete by comparing the resistance of cementitious binder to the onset of chloride-induced corrosion of steel. Mortar specimens were cast with centrally located steel rebar of 10 mm in diameter using cementitious mortars with ordinary Portland cement (OPC) and mixed mortars replaced with 30% pulverized fuel ash (PFA), 60% ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) and 10% silica fume (SF), respectively, at 0.4 of a free W/B ratio. Chlorides were admixed in mixing water ranging 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0% by weight of binder(Based on $C1^-$). Specimens were curd 28 days at the room temperature, wrapped in polyethylene film to avoid leaching out of chloride and hydroxyl ions. Then the corrosion rate was measured using the polarization resistance method and the order of CTL for binder was determined. Thus, CTL of OPC, 60%GGBS, 30%PFA and 10%SF were determined by 1.6%, 0.45%, 0.8% and 2.15%, respectively.