• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.75-100
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• 2018

Mobile devices have become an important channel for news content usage in our daily life. However, online news content readers' resistance to online news monetization is more serious than other digital content businesses, such as webtoons, music sources, videos, and games. Since major portal sites distribute online news content free of charge to increase their traffics, customers have been accustomed to free news content; hence this makes online news providers more difficult to switch their policies on business models (i.e., monetization policy). As a result, most online news providers are highly dependent on the advertising business model, which can lead to increasing number of false, exaggerated, or sensational advertisements inside the news website to maximize their advertising revenue. To reduce this advertising dependencies, many online news providers had attempted to switch their 'free' readers to 'paid' users, but most of them failed. However, recently, some online news media have been successfully applying the Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) payment model, which allows readers to voluntarily pay fees for their favorite news content. These successful cases shed some lights to the managers of online news content provider regarding that the PWYW model can serve as an alternative business model. In this study, therefore, we collected 379 online news articles from Ohmynews.com that has been successfully employing the PWYW model, and analyzed the comparative importance of systematic attributes of online news content on readers' voluntary payment. More specifically, we derived the six systematic attributes (i.e., Type of Article Title, Image Stimulation, Article Readability, Article Type, Dominant Emotion, and Article-Image Similarity) and three or four levels within each attribute based on previous studies. Then, we conducted content analysis to measure five attributes except Article Readability attribute, measured by Flesch readability score. Before conducting main content analysis, the face reliabilities of chosen attributes were measured by three doctoral level researchers with 37 sample articles, and inter-coder reliabilities of the three coders were verified. Then, the main content analysis was conducted for two months from March 2017 with 379 online news articles. All 379 articles were reviewed by the same three coders, and 65 articles that showed inconsistency among coders were excluded before employing conjoint analysis. Finally, we examined the comparative importance of those six systematic attributes (Study 1), and levels within each of the six attributes (Study 2) through conjoint analysis with 314 online news articles. From the results of conjoint analysis, we found that Article Readability, Article-Image Similarity, and Type of Article Title are the most significant factors affecting online news readers' voluntary payment. First, it can be interpreted that if the level of readability of an online news article is in line with the readers' level of readership, the readers will voluntarily pay more. Second, the similarity between the content of the article and the image within it enables the readers to increase the information acceptance and to transmit the message of the article more effectively. Third, readers expect that the article title would reveal the content of the article, and the expectation influences the understanding and satisfaction of the article. Therefore, it is necessary to write an article with an appropriate readability level, and use images and title well matched with the content to make readers voluntarily pay more. We also examined the comparative importance of levels within each attribute in more details. Based on findings of two studies, two major and nine minor propositions are suggested for future empirical research. This study has academic implications in that it is one of the first studies applying both content analysis and conjoint analysis together to examine readers' voluntary payment behavior, rather than their intention to pay. In addition, online news content creators, providers, and managers could find some practical insights from this research in terms of how they should produce news content to make readers voluntarily pay more for their online news content.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.167-181
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• 2018

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2020

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.180-191
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• 2015

Purpose: There is a lack of data on the energy cost of children's everyday activities, adult values are often used as surrogates. In addition, the influence of body weight on the energy cost of activity when expressed as metabolic equivalents (METs) has not been vigorously explored. Methods: In this study 20 elementary school students 9~12 years of age completed 18 various physical activities while energy expenditure was measured continuously using a portable telemetry gas exchange system ($K_4b^2$, Cosmed, Rome, Italy). Results: The average age was 10.4 years and the average height and weight was 145.1 cm and 43.6 kg, respectively. Oxygen consumption ($VO_2$), energy expenditure and METs at the time of resting of the subjects were 5.41 mL/kg/min, 1.44 kcal/kg/h, and 1.5 METs, respectively. METs values by 18 physical activities were as follows: Homework and reading books (1.6 METs), playing game with a mobile phone or video while sitting (1.6 METs), watching TV while sitting on a comfortable chair (1.7 METs), playing video game or mobile phone game while standing (1.9 METs), sweeping a room with a broom (2.7 METs) and playing a board game (2.8 METs) belong to light intensity physical activities. By contrary, speedy walking and running were 6.6 and 6.7 METs, respectively, which belong to high intensity physical activities over 6.0 METs. When the effect of body weight on physical activity energy expenditure was determined, $R^2$ values increased with 0.116 (playing a game at sitting), 0.176 (climbing up and down stairs), 0.246 (slow walking), and 0.455 (running), which showed that higher activity intensity increased explanation power of body weight on METs value. Conclusion: This study is important for direct evaluation of energy expenditure by physical activities of children, and it could be used directly for revising and complementing the existing activity classification table to fit for children.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.536-546
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• 2009

This study was done to investigate the effect of stress on appetite and eating habits, and other health-related behaviors. The subjects of this study consisted of 188 males and 224 females in Ulsan area. The results were as follows: When stressed, 56% (n = 231) of the subjects experienced a change in appetite and of these, 32% (n = 132) experienced an increased appetite. Stress-induced eating may be one factor contributing to the development of obesity. There was a gender-specific response to stress in which women are more likely to use food to deal with stress, whereas men are more likely to use alcohol consumption or smoking. It was found that types of stressors were individual (52.9%), social (50.7%), family relations (34.5%), work demands (34.2%) and physical environment (32.3%). Stress-induced symptoms of the subjects were anxiety (38.3%), headache (36.7%) and neck or shoulder aches (36.2%), and females experienced those symptoms more than males. Those older than 50 years had a higher eating habit score and lower stress score compared with younger subjects. There were significant differences between sex, age, occupation, family type, BMI, exercise, sleeping hours and eating habits or stress level. This study may be helpful in advancing findings in this area to better provide health professionals with appropriate counseling tools to improve the health of all individuals.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.42 no.8
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• pp.770-783
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• 2009

The school foodservice was quantitatively extended by policy of government all the while. There was carried out the survey of customer satisfaction about school foodservice by the ministry of education, science, and technology since 2006 years. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to grasp an improvement of the scores of school foodservice' quality attributes and satisfaction as compared with the preceding year by respondents and school type (elementary school, middle school, and high school). An annual survey was practiced to respondents (students, parents, and faculty) on september 2007 years and 2008 years in 16 cities and provinces. The statistics was analyzed to descriptive analysis and t-test for SPSS 12.0. The scores of school foodservice' quality attributes and overall customer satisfaction were almost increased to students, parents, and faculty and especially, big elevation in middle school. There was big increased the quality attributes such as 'providing information on foodservice', 'pleasant foodservice environment', 'kindness offered by employee' in elementary school, middle school, and high school to total respondents. An overall satisfaction in school foodservice was improved from 69.2 score to 71.9 score. On students, scores of overall satisfaction was increased from 72.9 to 74.0 as students of elementary school and from 61.5 to 65.8 as students of middle school (p < .001). Therefore, for improvement and development of school foodservice, there should be a necessary for an operator of school foodservice and an office of education to make an effort.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.43-49
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• 2019

Purpose: This study examined changes in the position of the heat and lungs depending on the patient's breathing method during left breast cancer radiotherapy and used treatment plans to compare the resulting radiation dose. Materials and methods: The participants consisted of 10 patients with left breast cancer. A CT simulator(SIMENS SOMATOM AS, Germany) was used to obtain images when using three different breathing methods: free breathing(FB), deep inspiration breath hold(DIBH with Abches, DIBH), inspiration breath hold(IBH with CPAP, CPAP). A Ray Station(5.0.2.35, Sweden) was used for treatment planning, the treatment method was volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) with one partial arc of the same angle, and the prescribed dose to the planning target volume (PTV) was a total dose of 50Gy(2Gy/day). In treatment plan analysis, the 95% dose (D95) to the PTV, the conformity index(CI), and the homogeneity index (HI) were compared. The lungs, heart, and left anterior descending artery (LAD) were selected as the organs at risk(OARs). Results: The mean volume of the ipsilateral lung for FB, DIBH, and CPAP was 1245.58±301.31㎤, 1790.09±362.43 ㎤, 1775.44±476.71 ㎤. The mean D95 for the PTV was 46.67±1.89Gy, 46.85±1.72Gy, 46.97±23.4Gy, and the mean CI and HI were 0.95±0.02, 0.96±0.02, 0.95±0.02 and 0.91±0.01, 0.90±0.01, 0.92±0.02. The V20 of Whole Lung was 10.74±4.50%, 8.29±3.14%, 9.12±3.29% and The V20 of the ipsilateral lung was 20.45±8.65%, 17.18±7.04%, 18.85±7.85%, the Dmean of the heart was 7.82±1.27Gy, 6.10±1.27Gy, 5.67±1.56Gy, and the Dmax of the LAD was 20.41±7.56Gy, 14.88±3.57Gy, 14.96±2.81Gy. The distance from the thoracic wall to the LAD was measured to be 11.33±4.70mm, 22.40±6.01mm, 20.14±6.23mm. Conclusion: During left breast cancer radiotherapy, the lung volume was 46.24% larger for DIBH than for FB, and 43.11% larger for CPAP than FB. The larger lung volume increases the distance between the thoracic wall and the heart. In this way, the LAD, which is one of the nearby OARs, can be more effectively protected while still satisfying the treatment plan. The lung volume was largest for DIBH, and the distance between the LAD and thoracic wall was also the greatest. However, when performing treatment with DIBH, the intra-fraction error cannot be ignored. Moreover, communication between the patient and the radiotherapist is also an important factor in DIBH treatment. When communication is problematic, or if the patient has difficulty holding their breath, we believe that CPAP could be used as an alternative to DIBH. In order to verify the clinical efficacy of CPAP, it will be necessary to perform long-term follow-up of a greater number of patients.

• Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.251-262
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• 2007

In this study, the antioxidative effects, inhibitory effects on elastase, and components of Aspalathus linearis extracts were investigated. The free radical (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl, DPPH) scavenging activities ($FSC_{50}$) of extract/fractions of Aspalathus linearis were in the order: 50 % ethanol extract ($11.50\;{\mu}g/mL$) < deglycosylated flavonoid aglycone fraction ($8.47\;{\mu}g/mL$) < ethylacetate fraction ($4.76\;{\mu}g/mL$). Reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging activities ($OSC_{50}$) of some Aspalathus linearis extracts on ROS generated in $Fe^{3+}-EDTA/H_2O_2$ system were investigated using the luminol-dependent chemiluminescence assay. The order of ROS scavenging activities were ethylacetate fraction ($OSC_{50},\;4.58\;{\mu}g/mL$) < deglycosylated flavonoid aglycone fraction ($2.20\;{\mu}g/mL$) < 50 % ethanol extract ($1.09\;{\mu}g/mL$). 50 % Ethanol extract showed the most prominent scavenging activity. The protective effects of extract/fractions of Aspalathus linearis on the rose-bengal sensitized photohemolysis of human erythrocytes were investigated. The Aspalathus linearis extracts suppressed photohemolysis in a concentration dependent manner, particularly 50 % ethanol extract exhibited the most prominent celluar protective effect (${\tau}_{50}$, 272.00 min at $50\;{\mu}g/mL$). Aglycone fractions obtained from the deglycosylation reaction of ethylacetate fraction among the Aspalathus linearis extracts, showed 3 bands in TLC and 3 peaks in HPLC experiments (360 nm). Three components were identified as luteolin (composition ratio, 18.24 %), quercetin (58.79), and kaempferol (22.97). TLC chromatogram of ethylacetate fraction of Aspalathus linearis extract revealed 7 bands and HPLC chromatogram showed 9 peaks, which were identified as isoorientin (composition ratio, 14.71 %), orientin (28.84 %), vitexin (5.63 %), rutin and isovitexin (12.73 %), hyperoside (9.24 %), isoquercitrin (5.40 %), luteolin (1.48 %), quercetin (17.61 %) and kaempferol (4.59 %) in the order of elution time. The inhibitory effect of aglycone fraction on elastase ($IC_{50},\;9.08\;{\mu}g/mL$) was very high. These results indicate that extract/fractions of Aspalathus linearis can function as antioxidants in biological systems, particularly skin exposed to UV radiation by scavenging $^1O_2$ and other ROS, and protect cellular membranes against ROS. And component analysis of Aspalathus linearis extract and inhibitory activity on elastase of the aglycone fraction could be applicable to new functional cosmetics for smoothing wrinkles.