• Title/Summary/Keyword: 손실 회피 경향

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Prospect Theory and Risk Preferences of Real Estate Development Companies (부동산 개발 및 공급 기업의 손익과 경영진의 위험 선호도)

  • Kim, Byungil;Kim, Won Tae;Chung, Do-Bum
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2022
  • Companies make decisions with risks such as choosing an investment plan in order to pursue profits. This study explained the decision making of the management of construction companies in South Korea using the tendency to avoid losses in the Prospect Theory. To this end, 20-year financial data of 2,881 companies engaged in real estate development, which have to bear the greatest risk among the construction industry, were collected. The collected companies were roughly classified based on the reference point, and the causal relationship between average return on equity and risk preference by group was empirically analyzed through regression analysis. As a result, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group above the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with low uncertainty in order not to lose additional money. In addition, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group below the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with high uncertainty to move to the profit area. This result is exactly consistent with the loss aversion tendency of the Prospect Theory.

A study on how to generate notification messages using live and forecast information (실황 및 예측정보를 활용한 알림 메시지 생성방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Young;Shin, Jiyoung;Park, Gi-Yeon;Kim, Junho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.158-160
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    • 2022
  • 최근의 자연 재난의 발생 빈도의 증가는 재난에 대한 정보전달의 중요성이 높아지는 만큼 전달 방법의 중요도도 높아지고 있다. 특히, 2020년의 코로나19(COVID-19)로 인하여 자연 재난에 더해 사회재난에 관한 관심도 증대하고 있으나, 재난정보의 빈도가 매우 높아져, 2000년대 통틀어서 제공된 재난 정보량보다 20년, 21년의 재난 정보량이 더 많아 보인다. 이러한 재난정보의 홍수는 반대급부로 정보의 피로도를 증가시켜 의도적 또는 비의도적 무시 경향을 유발할 수 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 재난 위험지역을 기반으로 Segment를 생성하고 관리하며, Segment 단위로 재난 위험 메시지를 제공하는 Segment기반 긴급메시지전송 시스템을 연구한다. 목표시스템에서는 재난정보를 실황 정보와 1시간 예측정보를 비교, 위험지역 회피시나리오를 지능화 개선하여 모바일앱 이용자에게 제공함으로써 대피 이동관리와 행동 유도를 이끌어 이용자의 인명피해 저감과 재산손실 감소의 효과를 얻고자 개발하였다.

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Potential Welfare Loss from Using Imperfect Environmental Taxes (불완전한 환경세 사용에 따른 잠재적 후생 손실)

  • Hong, Inkee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-53
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    • 2015
  • In environmental policy areas, a greater use of economic instruments (EIs) has recently been observed in many countries. However, EIs are heterogeneous policy tools. The textbook case of a Pigouvian tax is far from widely used, mainly due to the information requirements and other structural and institutional constraints. The successful implementation of EIs might heavily depend on pre-existing structural and institutional conditions. Moreover, these institutional conditions are particularly unfavorable in developing countries. Using a simple analytical general equilibrium model, this paper examines how these constraints affect the welfare gain from the introduction of environmental taxes in developing countries. First, this paper solves for the second-best optimal Pigouvian tax and output tax in the presence of a distortionary tax on market use of labor. The result confirms that an environmental output tax achieves a socially-efficient level of emissions in the least-cost manner only if the nature of the linkage between the tax base and the environmental damage is fixed. Second, incorporating structural and institutional constraints into the model through a set of parameter values from China and the US, this paper calculates the net welfare effects of either using the ideal Pigouvian tax or instead using an output tax. The numerical simulation results show that the net welfare gain from the use of an ideal Pigouvian tax could be more than six times larger than that of an output tax in developing countries. On the other hand, the welfare gain is only 50 percent in developed countries. This means that the potential welfare disadvantage from using output taxes instead emissions tax for environmental purposes could be much greater in the case of developing countries.

Meteorological Constraints and Countermeasures in Major Summer Crop Production (하작물의 기상재해와 그 대책)

  • Shin-Han Kwon;Hong-Suk Lee;Eun-Hui Hong
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.398-410
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    • 1982
  • Summer crops grown in uplands are greatly diversified and show a large variation in difference with year and location in Korea. The principal factor for the variation is weather, in which precipitation and temperature play a leading role and such a weather factors as wind, sun lights also influence production of the summer crops. Since artificial control of weather conditions as a main stress factor for crop production is almost impossible, it must be minimized only by an improvement of cultivation techniques and crop improvement. Precipitation plays a role as one of the most important factor for production of the summer crops and it is considered in two aspects, drought and excess moisture. This country, which belongs to monsoon territory, necessarily encounter one of this stress almost every year, even though the level is different. Therefore, the facilities for both drought and excess moisture are required, but actually it is not easy to complete for them. On this account, crops tolerant to drought, excess moisture and pests should be considered for establishing summer crops. For the districts damaged habitually every season, adequate crops should be cultured and appropriate method of planting, drainage and weed control should be applied diversely. Injuries by temperature is mainly attributed to lower temperature particularly in late fall and early spring, although higher temperature often causes some damages depending upon the kind of crops. Sometimes, lower temperature in summer season playa critical role for yield reduction in the summer crops. However, certain crops are prevented to some extent from this kind of stress by improving varieties tolerant to cold, hot weather or early maturing varieties. As is often the case, control of planting time or harvesting is able to be a good management for escaping the stress. Lodging, plant diseases and pests are considered as a direct or indirect damage due to weather stress, but these are characters able to be overcome by means of crop improvement and also controlled by other suitable methods. In addition, polytical supports capable of improving constitution of agriculture into modern industry is urgently required by programming of data for the damages, establishment of damage forecasting and compensation system.

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A Study on Profitability of the Allianced Discount Program with Credit Cards and Loyalty Cards in Food & Beverage Industry (제휴카드 할인프로그램이 외식업의 수익성에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Young Sik;Cha, Kyoung Cheon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.55-78
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    • 2011
  • Recently strategic alliance between business firms has become prevalent to overcome increasing competitive threats and to supplement resource limitation of individual firms. As one of allianced sales promotion activities, a new type of discount program, so called "Alliance Card Discount", is introduced with the partnership of credit cards and loyalty cards. The program mainly pursues short-term sales growth by larger discount scheme while spends less through cost share among alliance partners. Thus this program can be regarded as cost efficient discount promotion. But because there is no solid evidence that it can really deliver profitable sales growth, an empirical study for its effects on sales and profit should be conducted. This study has two basic research questions concerning the effects of allianced discount program ; 1)the possibility of sales increase 2) the profitability of the discount driven sales. In F&B industry, sales increase mainly comes from increased guest count. Especially in family restaurants, to increase the number of guests we need to enlarge the size of visitor group (number of visitors for one group) because customers visit by group in a special occasion. And because they pay the bill by group(table), the increase of sales per table is a key measure for sales improvement. The past researches for price & discount sensitivity and reference discount rate explain that price sensitive consumers have narrow reference discount zone and make rational purchase decision. Differently from all time discount scheme of regular sales promotions, the alliance card discount program only provides the right to get discount like discount coupon. And because it is usually once a month opportunity given by the past month usage level, customers tend to perceive alliance card discount as a rare chance to get. So that we can expect customers try to maximize the discount effect when they use the limited discount opportunity. Considering group visiting practice and low visit frequency of family restaurants, the way to maximize discount effect should be the increase the size of visit group. And their sensitivity to discount and rational consumption behavior defer the additional spending for ordering high price menu, even though they get considerable amount of savings from the discount. From the analysis of sales data paid by alliance discount cards for four months, we found the below. 1) The relation between discount rate and number of guest per table is positive : 25% discount results one additional guest 2) The relation between discount rate and the spending per guest is negative. 3) However, total profit amount per table is increased when discount rate is increased. 4) Reward point accumulation & redemption did not show any significant relationship with the increase of number of guests. These results suggest that the allianced discount program substantially contributes to sales increase and profit improvement by increasing the number of guests per table. Though the spending per guest is decreased by discount rate increase, the total amount of profit per table is improved. It seems the incremental profit by increased guest count offsets the profit decrease. Additional intriguing finding is the point reward system does not have any significant impact on the increase of number of guest, even if the point accumulation & redemption of loyalty program are usually regarded as another saving offers by customers. In sum, because it is proved that allianced discount program with credit cards and loyalty cards is effective to both sales drive and profit increase, the alliance card program could be recommended as strategically buyable program.

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