• Title/Summary/Keyword: 손상확률

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The Use of Normal Tissue Complication Probability to Predict Radiation Hepatitis (간암의 정상조직손상확률을 이용한 방사선간염의 발생여부 예측가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Keum Ki Chang;Seong Jinsil;Suh Chang Ok;Lee Sang-wook;Chung Eun Ji;Shin Hyun Soo;Kim Gwi Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.277-282
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : Though It has been known that the to tolerance of the liver to external beam irradiation depends on the irradiated volume and dose, few data exist which Quantify this dependence. However, recently, with the development of three dimensional (3-D) treatment planning, have the tools to Quantify the relationships between dose, volume, and normal tissue complications become available. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between normal tissue complication probabili쇼 (WCP) and the risk of radiation hepatitis for patients who received variant dose partial liver irradiation. Materials and Methods : From March 1992 to December 1994, 10 patients with hepatoma and 10 patients with bile duct cancer were included in this study. Eighteen patients had normal hepatic function, but 2 patients (prothrombin time 73$\%$, 68$\%$) had mild liver cirrhosis before irradiation. Radiation therapy was delivered with 10MV linear accelerator, 180$\~$200 cGy fraction per day. The total dose ranged from 3,960 cGy to 6,000 cGy (median dose 5,040 cGy). The normal tissue complication probability was calculated by using Lyman's model. Radiation hepatitis was defined as the development of anicteric elevation of alkaline phosphatase of at least two fold and non-malignant ascites in the absence of documented progressive. Results: The calculated NTCP ranged from 0.001 to 0.840 (median 0.05). Three of the 20 patients developed radiation hepatitis. The NTCP of the patients with radiation hepatitis were 0.390, 0.528, 0.844(median : 0.58$\pm$0.23), but that of the patients without radiation hepatitis ranged fro 0.001 to 0.308 (median .0.09$\pm$0.09). When the NTCP was calculated by using the volume factor of 0.32, a radiation hepatitis was observed only in patients with the NTCP value more than 0.39. By contrast, clinical results of evolving radiation hepatitis were not well correlated with NTCP value calculated when the volume factor of 0.69 was applied. On the basis of these observations, the volume factor of 0.32 was more correlated to predict a radiation hepatitis. Conclusion : The risk of radiation hepatitis was increased above the cut-off value. Therefore the NTCP seems to be used for predicting the radiation hepatitis.

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Seismic Risk Analysis of Track-on-Steel Plate Girder Railway Bridges (무도상 강판형 철도교의 지진 위험도 해석)

  • Park, Joo Nam;Choi, Eun Soo;Kim, Sung Il;Cho, Sung Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2009
  • More than 40% of railway bridges on the conventional lines in Korea consist of track-on-steel plate girder (TOSPG) bridges. This type of bridge is typically designed without considering seismic loadings, as most of them were built before 1970. The seismic performance of this particular type of bridge could be upgraded through various seismic retrofit schemes, and seismic risk assessment could play a key role in decision-making on the level of the seismic retrofit. This study performed a seismic risk assessment of TOSPG bridges in Korea. The seismic damage of several crucial components of TOSPG bridges--fixed bearings, free bearings, and piers--were probabilistically estimated, and their seismic fragility curves were developed. The probability that the components would exceed their predefined limit states was also calculated by combining the fragility curves and the seismic hazard function. The analysis showed that the piers of TOSPG bridges, which are made of plain concrete without rebars, have relatively low risk against seismic loadings in Korea. This is because the mass of the superstructures of TOSPG bridges is relatively small, and hence, the seismic loading being transferred to the piers is minimal. The line-type bearings typically used for TOSPG bridges, however, are exposed to a degree of seismic risk. Among the bearings, the probability of the free-end bearings and the fixed-end bearings exceeding the slight damage state in 50 years was found to be 12.78% and 4.23%, respectively. The gap between these probability values lessened towards more serious damage states. This study could effectively provide an engineering background for decision-making activities on the seismic retrofit of railway bridges.

Fragility Analysis Method Based on Seismic Performance of Bridge Structure considering Earthquake Frequencies (지진 진동수에 따른 교량의 내진성능기반 취약도 해석 방법)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Chung, Young-Soo;Yang, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating fragility curves and damage probability matrices for different frequencies. Fragility curves and damage probability indicate the probabilities that a structure will sustain different degrees of damage at different ground motion levels. The seismic damages are to achieved by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquakes. In contrast to previous approaches, this paper presents a method that is based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of the structure using empirical data. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge pier subjected to given ground acceleration. At each level, 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses was performed for the damage states of PSC bridge pier structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility resulting from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for PSC bridge pier with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-normal distribution. The effect of dominant frequences was found to be significant on fragility curves.

Damage Probabilities according to the Structural Characteristics of Bridges and the Determination of Target Ductilities (교량의 구조특성에 따른 손상확률과 목표연성도 결정)

  • Sun, Chang-Ho;Lee, Jong-Seok;Kim, Ick-Hyun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • The target performance of a current seismic design code is to achieve collapse-prevention in order to minimize casualties. Existing structures are also being retrofitted to meet this target performance. This seismic performance seems to have been achieved in recent great overseas earthquakes, but the accompanying enormous economic loss is pointed out as a new problem. A new seismic design concept over the current target performance is required to reduce economic loss, in which a target performance is determined by the damage probability in order to control the damage levels of structures. In this study, the seismic behavior of bridges having different characteristics was investigated by nonlinear seismic analyses, and fragility curves with respect to a reference damage level were derived. Based on these results, the characteristics of target ductilities satisfying a target damage probability were investigated.

Assessment of Fragility Curve for Earthquake in Railway Bridge (기존 철도교량의 지진에 대한 취약도 곡선 산정)

  • Kim, Dae-Ho;Sun, Chang-Ho;Kim, Ick-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.101-104
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the serious damage by earthquakes is increased around the world. SOC fo city is established to minimize the loss of lives and assets by earthquakes, which an objective standard is required. Generally, bridges damage by earthquakes occurred the inelastic hinge under the column. Nonlinear element model of inelastic hinge have been used to Bilinear model, but Takeda model for material characterization of concrete is a little. In this study, railway bridge was performed seismic fragility analysis for Takeda model and Bilinear model comparatively. This analysis shows that damage probability of Takeda model is larger than Bilinear model. And analysis of Takeda model in longitudinal direction and transverse direction are different. Therefore developed analysis for concrete column of bridge is expected to apply to material characterization.

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HRA를 이용한 터빈 정지시 원자로 정지불능 영향 완화 방안 연구

  • 이광석;이경진
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.747-752
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    • 1997
  • 고리 3,4호기 및 영광 1,2호기 PSA Ⅰ단계 수행 결과 ATWT에 대한 노심 손상 확률은 다른 사건에 비해 상대적으로 적어 소홀히 취급될 수 있으나 전체적인 노심 손상 확률 저감을 위해 본 연구에서는 ATWT 사건 중 터빈 정지시 원자로 정지불능을 선정하여 HRA를 수행하였다. HRA 수행의 첫째 과정은 위에서 선정한 사건에 대해 시나리오를 가정하고 이를 4개 그룹의 주제어실 운전원들에게 적용하여 모의 제어반을 이용한 훈련을 실시하였으며 운전원 조치 과정중의 행동관찰, 훈련결과, 개별 면담 등을 통해 국내 운전원 특성에 맞는 HRA의 기초자료를 얻었다. 두 번째 과정은 위의 결과 및 절차서에 근거하여 PSF 고려 유무에 따라 실패 확률의 정량적 평가와 불확실성 분석을 수행하여 ATWT에 대한 HRA 수행 자료로 활용 가능하도록 하였으며, 끝으로 ATWT 영향 완화를 위한 대안을 제시함으로서 노심 손상 확률을 감소시키기 위한 기초가 되도록 하였다.

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Seismic Performance based Fragility Analysis of Bridge Structure in terms of Soil Conditions (지반조건을 고려한 교량의 내진성능기반 취약도 해석)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Hong, Hyung-Gi;Chung, Young-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.73-76
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    • 2008
  • The damage of earthquakes have to achieve by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquake. Fragility analysis is a useful tool for predicting the probability of damage induced by the probable earthquake. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for the pier of prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge subjected to given ground acceleration. At each 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses were performed for the damage states of the pier of PSC bridge structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility result from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for the pier of PSC bridges with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-nomal distribution. It was found that there was a significant effect on the fragility curves due to the dominant frequencies.

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Fragility Analysis of RC Moment Resisting Framewith Masonry Infill Walls (비내력벽을 가진 RC모멘트저항골조의 취약도 해석)

  • Ko, Hyun;Park, Yong-Koo;Choi, Byeong-Tae;Kim, Min-Gyun;Lee, Ui-Hyun;Lee, Dong-Guen
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.442-445
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    • 2009
  • 지진에 대한 건축물의 확률적 성능평가에 대해서는 지진하중에 대한 건축물의 손상확률 또는 파괴확률을 나타내는 지진취약도 함수를 작성하여 대상 건축물에 대한 지진위험도를 평가하는 방법을 이용하고 있으며 이에 대한 많은 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지진하중과 구조물 재료특성의 불확실성을 고려하고 대상 건축물의 지진취약도 해석을 통하여 비내력벽의 유무에 따른 건축물의 지진거동 및 내진성능을 평가하였다. 비내력벽을 보편화된 모형화 방법인 등가의 대각 압축 스트럿으로 고려하여 비내력벽의 유무에 따른 저층 철근콘크리트 건축물을 모형화하였으며 지진하중의 강도는 유효최대지반가속도를 이용하여 각 건축물에 대하여 지진취약도를 작성하였다. 취약도해석 결과로 연약층을 가지고 있는 건축물의 경우는 손상확률이 골조만 있는 경우보다 크며 동일한 해석모델의 경우에도 해석방법에 따라서 취약도 곡선의 형태가 다름을 알 수 있었다.

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Damage Assessment of Plate Gider Railway Bridge Based on the Probabilistic Neural Network (확률신경망을 이용한 철도 판형교의 손상평가)

  • 조효남;이성칠;강경구;오달수
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2003
  • Artificial neural network has been used for damage assessment by many researchers, but there are still some barriers that must be overcome to improve its accuracy and efficiency. The major problems associated with the conventional artificial neural network, especially the Back Propagation Neural Network(BPNN), are on the need of many training patterns and on the ambiguous relationship between neural network architecture and the convergence of solution. Therefore, the number of hidden layers and nodes in one hidden layer would be determined by trial and error. Also, it takes a lot of time to prepare many training patterns and to determine the optimum architecture of neural network. To overcome these drawbacks, the PNN can be used as a pattern classifier. In this paper, the PNN is used numerically to detect damage in a plate girder railway bridge. Also, the comparison between mode shapes and natural frequencies of the structure is investigated to select the appropriate training pattern for the damage detection in the railway bridge.

Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Seismic Performance Evaluation of Bridges -Focused on Fragility Analysis using Capacity Spectrum Method- (교량의 내진성능 평가를 위한 확률적 지진안전성 분석 - 역량스펙트럼법을 이용한 지진취약도 분석을 중심으로-)

  • 이진학;김상훈
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2004
  • 몇 일 전 필자는 대전에 위치한 한 연구소에 근무하고 계신 분으로부터 지진취약도 분석에 관한 문의 전화를 받았다. 그분의 대학 후배가 지진취약도에 대한 연구를 하고 싶다는 내용이었다. 최근 필자는 그분 외에도 다른 분들과 함께 지진취약도 분석 및 이를 확장한 바람에 의한, 혹은 홍수에 의한 구조물의 확률적 안전성 분석에 관한 논의를 하곤 하였다. 현재까지 국내에서는 구조물의 취약도 분석에 대한 연구가 그다지 활발하지 않으나, 이에 대한 관심은 지속적으로 증가할 것으로 보여진다. 지진취약도를 한마디로 요약하면, "임의의 크기를 갖는 지진이 발생하였을 때, 구조물에 어느 규모 이상의 손상이 발생할 확률"을 의미하는 것으로, 구조물의 확률적 지진안전성으로 부를 수 있다. 예를 들어, "최대지반가속도가 0.1g인 지진이 발생하였을 때, 해당 구조물에 보수를 요하는 수준 이상의 손상이 발생할 확률이 30%이다"와 같은 정보를 지진취약도 곡선으로부터 읽을 수 있다. (중략)