• Journal of Korean Electronics
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.42-55
• /
• 1983

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.1-20
• /
• 2002

이 논문에서는 1991년 1월부터 2000년 12월까지의 납세 후 CD수익률 자료와 소비자물가지수 자료를 사용하여 우리 나라 금융시장에서 단기적 피셔효과가 존재하는지를 검증하고자 시도하였다. Fama(1975)의 방법에 따라 3개월 물가상승률을 CD수익률에 관해 회귀분석한 결과, CD수익률이 미래 물가상승률의 예측치로서 충분한 역할을 하지 못한다는 결과를 얻었다. 단기적 피셔효과를 검증하기 위하여 CD수익률을 기대물가상승률에 관하여 회귀분석하였다. 기대물가상승률은 상수 및 시간추세와 계절성을 반영하는 부분과 확률적 부분으로 구분하고, 확률적 부분이 랜돔워크 모형에 따르는 경우와 AR(1) 모형에 따르는 경우에 대해 기대물가상승률을 구하였다. 랜돔워크모형에 의해 예측하든 AR(1)에 의해 예측하든 기대물가상승률의 회귀계수는 유의한 양(+)의 값이긴 1보다는 훨씬 작은 값으로 추정되었다. 이것은 우리나라의 CD수익률에 단기 피셔효과가 부분적으로만 존재하고 있다는 것을 의미한다. 그리고 AR(1)을 사용하여 예측한 기대물가상승률이 랜돔워크모형을 사용한 경우보다 나은 추정결과를 보여주고 있다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.57-77
• /
• 2023

The Chonsei component holds the highest level of weight (5.4%) in the composition of the Korean consumer price index (CPI). The variations in Chonsei prices are directly reflected in the CPI as a representation of cost swings. The Chonsei refers to a deposit that accumulates the costs related to housing services and is mostly affected by variations in rental rates. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Chonsei prices are also susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates, regardless of the rent prices. Therefore, if Chonsei were directly and one-to-one indexed to the CPI, they could include changes other than residential service prices. After analyzing the time series data of the Chonsei index and rent index inside the CPI, it becomes apparent that the Chonsei index displays an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, whilst the rent index reveals a growth rate of 0.9%. The observed disparity in growth rates indicates a divergence in trends between the two indices. It is posited that the Chonsei index, when capitalized, has had a more rapid increase compared to the rental index, owing to the gradual drop in interest rates. To effectively reflect fluctuations in the housing service costs, proxies for the Chonsei index were utilized in the construction of a consumer price index. The findings of our study suggest that, overall, the newly developed CPI demonstrates a comparatively lower rate of inflation when compared to the official CPI. Furthermore, the inclusion of imputed rents for owner-occupied housing in CPI amplifies this effect.

• Fire Science and Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2004

The following matters were confirmed through the analysis of property losses due to fires in Korea, the U.S., and Japan. 1. Korean statistics on property losses are not the most detailed of the three centuries, and they have a lot of limitations to analyze the actual condition of property losses due to fires. 2. The percentage which takes up property losses due to fires in GDP is on the decrease in the U.S. and Japan, but increase in Korea. In addition, from 1994, it has occupied almost the same rate in Korean ad compared with the U.S. and Japan. 3. When inflation are taken into consideration, property losses due to fires in the U.S. and Japan have decreased, but in Korea, they have increased except for the recent 2 years.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.697-712
• /
• 2010

This paper is concerned with the statistical analysis and development of stochastic models for the demand for life insurance policy loans. For these, firstly the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the monthly demand for life insurance policy loans are investigated by a statistical analysis of the monthly demand data for the years 1999 through 2008. Secondly, the causal relationships between the demand for life insurance policy loans and the economic variables including unemployment rate and inflation rate for the period are investigated. The results show that inflation rate is main factor influencing policy loan demands. The overall evidence, however, failed to establish unidirectional causality relationships between the demand series and the other variables under study. Finally, based on these, univariate time series model and transfer function model where the demand series is related to one input series are derived, respectively, for the prediction of the demand for life insurance policy loans. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the demand for life insurance policy loans is also proposed.

• Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
• /
• v.4
• /
• pp.141-153
• /
• 1986

This study intends to document the existing cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion price at farm gate level during the period of 1966-1986 in Korea. The existing patterns of such cyclical fluctuations were estimated systematically by removing the seasonal fluctuation and irregular movement as well as secular trend from the original price through the moving average method. It was found that the cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion prices repeated six and seven times respectively during the same period, also the amplitude coefficient of cyclical fluctuations showed speed up in recent years. It was noticed that the cyclical fluctuations of price in onion was higher than that of in garic.