• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• 제27권4호
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2011

In much the same way as the US Lehman crisis of 2008-2009 severely impacted the European economy through financial market dislocation, a European banking crisis would materially impact the US economy through a generalized increase in global risk aversion. A deepening of the European crisis could very well derail the US economic recovery and have a harmful impact on the Asian economies. This kind of vicious circle could be a bad news to the shipping companies. The purpose of the study is to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business during the period of 2012 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2011. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is also calculated. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors, however, are somewhat higher than normally expected. This reveals that it is very difficult to predict the BDI The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market will be bearish in 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• 제26권4호
• /
• pp.207-218
• /
• 2010

The purpose of the study is to predict the shipping business during the period of 2011 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2010. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors of all the ARIMA-type models are somewhat higher than normally expected. Furthermore, the random walk model outperforms all the ARIMA-type models. This reveals that the BDI is just a random walk phenomenon and it's meaningless to predict the BDI using various econometric techniques. The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market is expected to be bearish in 2011. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.53-93
• /
• 1993

본고(本稿)는 6.25전쟁(戰爭)이후 한국경제(韓國經濟)가 겪은 아홉번의 경기순환(景氣循環)으로부터 순환(循環)의 특징(特徵)과 양태(樣態)를 정리한 것이다. 경기순환(景氣循環)의 특징은 경기순환(景氣循環)의 지속기간(持續期間), 순환심도(循環深度), 변동성(變動性), 공행성(共行性) 및 시차성(時差性), 해외경기순환(悔外景氣循環)과의 관계(關係) 등 여섯가지 면에서 살펴보였으며, 순환양태(循環樣態)는 순환기별(循環期別)로 정리하였다. 우리 경제를 순환기별(循環期別)로 살펴볼 때 경우에 따라서는 경기과열(景氣過熱)을 식히기 위해 실시한 정책이 세계경제여건의 악화와 맞물려 경기(景氣)를 급냉(急冷)시킨 시기도 있었으며, 반대로 경기침체기(景氣沈滯期)에 도입한 내수부양정책(內需浮揚政策)에 기대와는 달리 경기(景氣)를 급격히 과열시켜 단기간내에 물가(物價)를 급등시키고 국제수지(國際收支)를 악화시킨 경우도 있었다. 경기조절(景氣調節)을 위해 실시한 정책이 자칫하면 서다가다(stop-go)를 반복하여 국민경제에 오히려 부담을 줄 가능성이 있기 때문에 정책결정자(政策決定者)는 항상 경기조절(景氣調節)을 위한 최적(最適)의 정책(政策)을 선택해야 하는 부담을 안고 있다. 특히 석유파동(石油波動)이나 UR타결과 같은 세계경제질서(世界經濟秩序)의 변동이 발생한 경우에는 가급적이면 그 충격(衝擊)이 경제에 서서히 흡수되도록 적절한 정책(政策)을 구사해야 한다. 경기정책(景氣政策)은 장기성장(長期成長)을 제고(提高)시키는 방향으로 전전되어야 하기 때문에 정책(政策)의 선택은 매우 산중하제 결정될 수밖에 없다. 또한 1953년 이후 지금까지 겪은 아홉번의 경기순환(景氣循環)과 각종 경기대책(景氣對策)의 실시 경험으로부터 정부(政府)는 추후 경기조절정책(景氣調節政策)의 시행과정에서 불가피하게 야기되는 문제점을 극소화하고, 정책목표 달성의 효율성(效率性)을 제고(提高)하기 위해서 민간(民間)에 대한 대정부(對政府) 신뢰성(信賴性)을 쌓아 나가야 할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제21권6호
• /
• pp.1071-1079
• /
• 2010

The decathlon is an athletic event consisting of ten track and field events. Events are held over two consecutive days and the winners are determined by the combined performance in all. We considered the best 200 decathletes who competed in the recent Olympics games and World Championship decathlon. We have used correspondence analysis to identify the relationship between ordered individual performance and the overall performance. Canonical correlation analysis of first day events versus second day events could shed light on the change of the level of performance between the two days. Correlation analysis was used to verify relation between cumulative event rank and final decathlon rank. Therefore, we conclude that the decathlon favors those atheletes who do well at the track events to become the best players. The best players in the decathlon performed relatively poorly in the 1,500 metres, but did well in the long jump, the 400 metres and the 110-metre hurdles. Decathletes in this study have a positive correlation between overall performance and maximal excellence in a particular discipline. Thus, to compete successfully at this level, a uniform, relatively high performance in all individual disciplines is required.

• The Optical Journal
• /
• 제14권5호통권81호
• /
• pp.38-42
• /
• 2002

• 프린팅코리아
• /
• 제13권12호
• /
• pp.53-61
• /
• 2014

2014년도 인쇄업계를 평가하는 눈이 싸늘하다. 국내외 경기불황이 이어지는 가운데, 탈출구마저 시야에 잡히지 않기 때문이다. 전방위 경기침체의 찬바람을 온몸으로 맞으며, '또 이렇게 한해를 보냈구나!'하고 안도해야 하는 한해로 기억될 처지에 놓였다. 하지만 낙담에 머물지 않고 인쇄업계의 불황 탈출 방법에 대한 전 세계적인 이슈를 함께 점검하며 2014년을 마감하는 것도 희망찬 2015년을 계획하는 데 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 보건세계
• /
• 제40권12호통권448호
• /
• pp.16-17
• /
• 1993

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.147-158
• /
• 2021

This study was conducted seven times from 2007 to the 2019 Women's World Handball Championships to analyze and strengthen the strength of the Korean women's handball team through the analysis of the top five countries' strengths. Among the 41 national teams participating in the World Women's Handball Championship, a total of five national teams, including the Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, and France, were selected for the final study. Among the records provided by the International Handball Federation (IHF), the ranking was selected by analyzing the competition records of 41 participating countries, and technical statistics and frequency analysis were conducted using the SPSS/PC+ Ver21.0 program. based on the accumulated records of the top five women's handball competitions, handball attack and defense strategies that can make up for the inferiority in future physical conditions are needed and detailed follow-up studies are needed. Also, we hope to use it as a basic resource for improving the performance of Korean women's handball players and to play a key role in enhancing the level of women's handball at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.

• 프린팅코리아
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.56-57
• /
• 2014

2013년까지 지속적인 경기 악화를 뒤로하고 2014년은 세계 경제 부진이 완화될 것이라는 전망이 쏟아지고 있다. 이에 따라, 국내경제는 장기추세성장률에 근접한 3.7% 내외의 성장을 보일 것으로 예상되고 있다.

• KOREAN POULTRY JOURNAL
• /
• 제14권통권152호
• /
• pp.136-143
• /
• 1982

축협조사부의 1982년도 세계의 전체적인 가축 및 식육통계에 의하면 작년에 비해 약 0.5$\%$ 증가할 것으로 예상되고 있는 가운데 세계 주요국의 계란 및 닭고기 생산 및 소비는 계속 증가할 전망이다. 세계적으로는 전반적인 경기의 침체는 육류에 대한 수요를 감퇴시키는 중요한 원인으로 작용하고 있으나 가격이 저렴하고 영양가가 높은 계란, 닭고기의 수요는 계속 늘어나 생산자의 생산의욕을 고취시켜 계속적인 증가를 보이고 있다.