• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.123-139
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• 2019

The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.257-264
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• 2014

Purpose : Photoneutron dose in high-energy photon radiotherapy at linear accelerator increase the risk for secondary cancer. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the dose variation of photoneutron with different treatment method, flattening filter, dose rate and gantry angle in radiation therapy with high-energy photon beam ($E{\geq}8MeV$). Materials and Methods : TrueBeam $ST{\time}TM$(Ver1.5, Varian, USA) and Korea Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (KTEPC) were used to detect the photoneutron dose out of the high-energy photon field. Complex Patient plans using Eclipse planning system (Version 10.0, Varian, USA) was used to experiment with different treatment technique(IMRT, VMAT), condition of flattening filter and three different dose rate. Scattered photoneutron dose was measured at eight different gantry angles with open field (Field size : $5{\time}5cm$). Results : The mean values of the detected photoneutron dose from IMRT and VMAT were $449.7{\mu}Sv$, $2940.7{\mu}Sv$. The mean values of the detected photoneutron dose with Flattening Filter(FF) and Flattening Filter Free(FFF) were measured as $2940.7{\mu}Sv$, $232.0{\mu}Sv$. The mean values of the photoneutron dose for each test plan (case 1, case 2 and case 3) with FFF at the three different dose rate (400, 1200, 2400 MU/min) were $3242.5{\mu}Sv$, $3189.4{\mu}Sv$, $3191.2{\mu}Sv$ with case 1, $3493.2{\mu}Sv$, $3482.6{\mu}Sv$, $3477.2{\mu}Sv$ with case 2 and $4592.2{\mu}Sv$, $4580.0{\mu}Sv$, $4542.3{\mu}Sv$ with case 3, respectively. The mean values of the photoneutron dose at eight different gantry angles ($0^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$, $90^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$, $180^{\circ}$, $225^{\circ}$, $270^{\circ}$, $315^{\circ}$) were measured as $3.2{\mu}Sv$, $4.3{\mu}Sv$, $5.3{\mu}Sv$, $11.3{\mu}Sv$, $14.7{\mu}Sv$, $11.2{\mu}Sv$, $3.7{\mu}Sv$, $3.0{\mu}Sv$ at 10MV and as $373.7{\mu}Sv$, $369.6{\mu}Sv$, $384.4{\mu}Sv$, $423.6{\mu}Sv$, $447.1{\mu}Sv$, $448.0{\mu}Sv$, $384.5{\mu}Sv$, $377.3{\mu}Sv$ at 15MV. Conclusion : As a result, it is possible to reduce photoneutron dose using FFF mode and VMAT method with TrueBeam $ST{\time}TM$. The risk for secondary cancer of the patients will be decreased with continuous evaluation of the photoneutron dose.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.344-390
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• 1977

The purpose of this paper was to schedule optimum cutting strategy which could maximize the total yield under certain restrictions on periodic timber removals and harvest areas from an industrial forest, based on a linear programming technique. Sensitivity of the regulation model to variations in restrictions has also been analyzed to get information on the changes of total yield in the planning period. The regulation procedure has been made on the experimental forest of the Agricultural College of Seoul National University. The forest is composed of 219 cutting units, and characterized by younger age group which is very common in Korea. The planning period is devided into 10 cutting periods of five years each, and cutting is permissible only on the stands of age groups 5-9. It is also assumed in the study that the subsequent forests are established immediately after cutting existing forests, non-stocked forest lands are planted in first cutting period, and established forests are fully stocked until next harvest. All feasible cutting regimes have been defined to each unit depending on their age groups. Total yield (Vi, k) of each regime expected in the planning period has been projected using stand yield tables and forest inventory data, and the regime which gives highest Vi, k has been selected as a optimum cutting regime. After calculating periodic yields and cutting areas, and total yield from the optimum regimes selected without any restrictions, the upper and lower limits of periodic yields(Vj-max, Vj-min) and those of periodic cutting areas (Aj-max, Aj-min) have been decided. The optimum regimes under such restrictions have been selected by linear programming. The results of the study may be summarized as follows:- 1. The fluctuations of periodic harvest yields and areas under cutting regimes selected without restrictions were very great, because of irregular composition of age classes and growing stocks of existing stands. About 68.8 percent of total yield is expected in period 10, while none of yield in periods 6 and 7. 2. After inspection of the above solution, restricted optimum cutting regimes were obtained under the restrictions of Amin=150 ha, Amax=400ha, $Vmin=5,000m^3$ and $Vmax=50,000m^3$, using LP regulation model. As a result, about $50,000m^3$ of stable harvest yield per period and a relatively balanced age group distribution is expected from period 5. In this case, the loss in total yield was about 29 percent of that of unrestricted regimes. 3. Thinning schedule could be easily treated by the model presented in the study, and the thinnings made it possible to select optimum regimes which might be effective for smoothing the wood flows, not to speak of increasing total yield in the planning period. 4. It was known that the stronger the restrictions becomes in the optimum solution the earlier the period comes in which balanced harvest yields and age group distribution can be formed. There was also a tendency in this particular case that the periodic yields were strongly affected by constraints, and the fluctuations of harvest areas depended upon the amount of periodic yields. 5. Because the total yield was decreased at the increasing rate with imposing stronger restrictions, the Joss would be very great where strict sustained yield and normal age group distribution are required in the earlier periods. 6. Total yield under the same restrictions in a period was increased by lowering the felling age and extending the range of cutting age groups. Therefore, it seemed to be advantageous for producing maximum timber yield to adopt wider range of cutting age groups with the lower limit at which the smallest utilization size of timber could be produced. 7. The LP regulation model presented in the study seemed to be useful in the Korean situation from the following point of view: (1) The model can provide forest managers with the solution of where, when, and how much to cut in order to best fulfill the owners objective. (2) Planning is visualized as a continuous process where new strateges are automatically evolved as changes in the forest environment are recognized. (3) The cost (measured as decrease in total yield) of imposing restrictions can be easily evaluated. (4) Thinning schedule can be treated without difficulty. (5) The model can be applied to irregular forests. (6) Traditional regulation methods can be rainforced by the model.