• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.80 no.3
• /
• pp.257-264
• /
• 1991

Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.26 no.6
• /
• pp.470-478
• /
• 2017

This study was classified into two groups, normal season group and drought season group, by the cluster analysis using the weather and water quality data from 2012 to 2015, using SPSS 18 version. Also each cluster was classified into three spaces, Gangcheon, Yeoju and Ipoh weir. We performed the multiple regression analysis with each monthly data that concentration of Chl-a was more than algae warming level. 6 groups classified in time and space were analyzed by the correlation analysis between concentration of Chl-a and 3 weather, 11 water quality and discharge factors. We developed Chl-a prediction equations of each group with independent variables of the multiple regression analysis applying to the correlation result. The result of cluster analysis was that the period was divided into two groups, normal group(2012-2013) that total annual precipitation rate was normal and drought group(2014-2015) that total annual precipitation rate was less than 1,000 mm/hr, in time. The months that concentration of Chl-a was more than algae warming level in each group classified by cluster analysis were that the normal group was 3~8 and drought group was 3 and 6~10. The correlation result between Chl-a and weather, water quality and discharge factors for each 6 group was that relationships between Chl-a and water, discharge factors were high in the drought group more than in normal group at all weirs. This was influenced by velocity reduction and increasing HRT according to the intense drought. Weather, water quality and discharge factors that were high correlation with Chl-a were applied to independent variables of Chl-a prediction equations and each equations were developed. Among them, Each adjusted R square of Prediction equations for Chl-a in each group at Ipoh weir where is located in Namhan river downstream and is directly connected to Paldang dam were normal group = 0.920 and drought group = 0.818. It's showed the high linear.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.25-34
• /
• 2015

In this research, we applied a procedure of quality control (QC) to the agro-meteorological data measured at the Suwon weather station of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The QC was conducted through six steps based on the KMA Real-time Quality control system for Meteorological Observation Data (RQMOD) and four steps based on the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) QC modules. In addition, we set up our own empirical method to remove erroneous data which could not be filtered by the RQMOD and ISMN methods. After all these QC procedures, a well-refined agro-meteorological dataset was complied at both air and soil temperatures. Our research suggests that soil moisture requires more detailed and reliable grounds to remove doubtful data, especially in winter with its abnormal variations. The raw data and the data after QC are now available at the NCAM website (http://ncam.kr/page/req/agri_weather.php).

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.169-206
• /
• 2009

This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.126-135
• /
• 2002

Plate bonding technique has been widely used in strengthening of existing concrete structures, although it has often a serious problem of premature falure such as interface separation and rip-off. However, this premature failure problem has not been well explored yet especially in view of local failure mechanism around the interface of plate ends. The purpose of the present study is, therefore, to identify the local failure of strengthened plates and to derive a separation criterion at the interface of plates. To this end, a comprehensive experimental program has been set up. The double lap pull-out tests considering pure shear force and half beam tests considering combined flexure-shear force were performed. The main experimental parameters include plate thickness, adhesive thickness, and plate end arrangement. The strains along the longitudinal direction of steel plates have been measured and the shear stress were calculated from those measures strains. The effects of plate thickness, bonded length, and plate end treatment have been also clarified from the present test results. Nonlinear finite element analysis has been performed and compared with test results. The Interface properties are also modeled to present the separation failure behavior of strengthened members. The cracking patterns as well as maximum failure loads agree well with test data. The relation between maximum shear and normal stresses at the interface has been derived to propose a separation failure criterion of strengthened members. The present study allows more realistic analysis and design of externally strengthened flexural member with steel plates.

• Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.33-43
• /
• 2019

Objectives: Bipolar disorder is characterized by repetitive relapses that result in psychosocial dysfunctions. The functioning of bipolar disorder patients is related to the severity of symptoms, quality of sleep, drug compliance, and social support. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between sociodemographic and clinical factors and functional status in bipolar disorder patients. Methods: A total of 52 bipolar disorder patients participated in the study. The following scales were utilized: Korean version of personal and social performance scale (K-PSP), Korean version of Hamilton rating scale for depression (K-HDRS), Korean version of young mania rating scale (K-YMRS), Korean version of pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI-K), Korean version of drug attitude inventory (K-DAI), mood disorders insight scale (MDIS), and multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS). Results: The K-PSP score showed a negative relationship with K-HDRS score (r = -0.387, p = 0.005), but not with K-YMRS score (r = -0.205, p = 0.145). The K-PSP score showed a negative relationship with global PSQI-K score (r = -0.378, p = 0.005) and overall sleep quality (r = -0.353, p = 0.010). The K-PSP scores were positively associated with the KDAI score (r = 0.409, p = 0.003) and MSPSS score (r = 0.334, p = 0.015). The predictive factors for K-PSP were overall sleep quality and social support from family. Conclusion: Our study showed that depressive symptoms were related to overall function in bipolar disorder. Also, our study suggested that improving sleep quality is important in maintaining functional status. Appropriate social support and positive perception toward the drug may lead to the higher level of functioning. This study is meaningful in that the functional status of bipolar disorder patients is analyzed in a multivariate manner in relation to various variables in psychosocial aspects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
• /
• v.30 no.6
• /
• pp.642-652
• /
• 2008

The aim of our research was to apply experimental design methodology in the optimization condition of Photo-Fenton oxidation of the residual livestock wastewater after the coagulation process. The reactions of Photo-Fenton oxidation were mathematically described as a function of parameters amount of Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$ and pH($x_3$) being modeled by the use of the Box-Behnken method, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface models and was alternative to central composite designs. The application of RSM using the Box-Behnken method yielded the following regression equation, which is an empirical relationship between the removal(%) of livestock wastewater and test variables in coded unit: Y = 79.3 + 15.61x$_1$ - 7.31x$_2$ - 4.26x$_3$ - 18x$_1{^2}$ - 10x$_2{^2}$ - 11.9x$_3{^2}$ + 2.49x$_1$x$_2$ - 4.4x$_2$x$_3$ - 1.65x$_1$x$_3$. The model predicted also agreed with the experimentally observed result(R$^2$ = 0.96) The results show that the response of treatment removal(%) in Photo-Fenton oxidation of livestock wastewater were significantly affected by the synergistic effect of linear terms(Fe(II)($x_1$), $H_2O_2(x_2)$, pH(x$_3$)), whereas Fe(II) $\times$ Fe(II)(x$_1{^2}$), $H_2O_2$ $\times$ $H_2O_2$(x$_2{^2}$) and pH $\times$ pH(x$_3{^2}$) on the quadratic terms were significantly affected by the antagonistic effect. $H_2O_2$ $\times$ pH(x$_2$x$_3$) had also a antagonistic effect in the cross-product term. The estimated ridge of the expected maximum response and optimal conditions for Y using canonical analysis were 84 $\pm$ 0.95% and (Fe(II)(X$_1$) = 0.0146 mM, $H_2O_2$(X$_2$) = 0.0867 mM and pH(X$_3$) = 4.704, respectively. The optimal ratio of Fe/H$_2O_2$ was also 0.17 at the pH 4.7.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.109-120
• /
• 2018

The distributional characteristics of fault segments in Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks from southeastern Gyeongsang Basin were derived. The 267 sets of fault segments showing linear type were extracted from the curved fault lines delineated on the regional geological map. First, the directional angle(${\theta}$)-length(L) chart for the whole fault segments was made. From the related chart, the general d istribution pattern of fault segments was derived. The distribution curve in the chart was divided into four sections according to its overall shape. NNE, NNW and WNW directions, corresponding to the peaks of the above sections, indicate those of the Yangsan, Ulsan and Gaeum fault systems. The fault segment population show near symmetrical distribution with respect to $N19^{\circ}E$ direction corresponding to the maximum peak. Second, the directional angle-frequency(N), mean length(Lm), total length(Lt) and density(${\rho}$) chart was made. From the related chart, whole domain of the above chart was divided into 19 domains in terms of the phases of the distribution curve. The directions corresponding to the peaks of the above domains suggest the directions of representative stresses acted on rock body. Third, the length-cumulative frequency graphs for the 18 sub-populations were made. From the related chart, the value of exponent(${\lambda}$) increase in the clockwise direction($N10{\sim}20^{\circ}E{\rightarrow}N50{\sim}60^{\circ}E$) and counterclockwise direction ($N10{\sim}20^{\circ}W{\rightarrow}N50{\sim}60^{\circ}W$). On the other hand, the width of distribution of lengths and mean length decrease. The chart for the above sub-populations having mutually different evolution characteristics, reveals a cross section of evolutionary process. Fourth, the general distribution chart for the 18 graphs was made. From the related chart, the above graphs were classified into five groups(A~E) according to the distribution area. The lengths of fault segments increase in order of group E ($N80{\sim}90^{\circ}E{\cdot}N70{\sim}80^{\circ}E{\cdot}N80{\sim}90^{\circ}W{\cdot}N50{\sim}60^{\circ}W{\cdot}N30{\sim}40^{\circ}W{\cdot}N40{\sim}50^{\circ}W$) < D ($N70{\sim}80^{\circ}W{\cdot}N60{\sim}70^{\circ}W{\cdot}N60{\sim}70^{\circ}E{\cdot}N50{\sim}60^{\circ}E{\cdot}N40{\sim}50^{\circ}E{\cdot}N0{\sim}10^{\circ}W$) < C ($N20{\sim}30^{\circ}W{\cdot}N10{\sim}20^{\circ}W$) < B ($N0{\sim}10^{\circ}E{\cdot}N30{\sim}40^{\circ}E$) < A ($N20{\sim}30^{\circ}E{\cdot}N10{\sim}20^{\circ}E$). Especially the forms of graph gradually transition from a uniform distribution to an exponential one. Lastly, the values of the six parameters for fault-segment length were divided into five groups. Among the six parameters, mean length and length of the longest fault segment decrease in the order of group III ($N10^{\circ}W{\sim}N20^{\circ}E$) > IV ($N20{\sim}60^{\circ}E$) > II ($N10{\sim}60^{\circ}W$) > I ($N60{\sim}90^{\circ}W$) > V ($N60{\sim}90^{\circ}E$). Frequency, longest length, total length, mean length and density of fault segments, belonging to group V, show the lowest values. The above order of arrangement among five groups suggests the interrelationship with the relative formation ages of fault segments.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.20 no.7
• /
• pp.155-166
• /
• 2002

Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.167-194
• /
• 2019

This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.