• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형예측이론

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Chaotic Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall Time Series (카오스를 이용한 일 강우자료의 시간적 분해)

  • Kyoung, Min-Soo;Sivakumar, Bellie;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.959-967
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    • 2008
  • Disaggregation techniques are widely used to transform observed daily rainfall values into hourly ones, which serve as important inputs for flood forecasting purposes. However, an important limitation with most of the existing disaggregation techniques is that they treat the rainfall process as a realization of a stochastic process, thus raising questions on the lack of connection between the structure of the models on one hand and the underlying physics of the rainfall process on the other. The present study introduces a nonlinear deterministic (and specifically chaotic) framework to study the dynamic characteristics of rainfall distributions across different temporal scales (i.e. weights between scales), and thus the possibility of rainfall disaggregation. Rainfall data from the Seoul station (recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration) are considered for the present investigation, and weights between only successively doubled resolutions (i.e., 24-hr to 12-hr, 12-hr to 6-hr, 6-hr to 3-hr) are analyzed. The correlation dimension method is employed to investigate the presence of chaotic behavior in the time series of weights, and a local approximation technique is employed for rainfall disaggregation. The results indicate the presence of chaotic behavior in the dynamics of weights between the successively doubled scales studied. The modeled (disaggregated) rainfall values are found to be in good agreement with the observed ones in their overall matching (e.g. correlation coefficient and low mean square error). While the general trend (rainfall amount and time of occurrence) is clearly captured, an underestimation of the maximum values are found.

금 나노로드 어레이 박막을 이용한 광학형 바이오 센서 개발

  • Yeom, Se-Hyeok;Lee, Dong-Ik;Sin, Han-Jae;Seo, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2014.02a
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    • pp.436-436
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 전 세계적으로 활발히 연구되고 있는 나노바이오센서 분야 중 가장 주목을 받고 있는 LSPR 원리를 이용한 바이오센서를 제작하였다. 금속 나노입자의 국소 표면 플라즈몬 공명현상에 의한 주위환경에 민감하게 반응하는 특성은 고감도 광학형 바이오센서, 화학물질 검출 센서등에 응용된다. 특히 금 나노막대와 같은 1차 나노구조물은 나노막대의 주변 환경 변화에 따라 뚜렷한 플라즈몬 흡수 밴드 변화를 나타냄으로 센서로 적용 했을 때 고감도의 측정이 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 다공성인 알루미늄 양극산화 박막 주형틀을 이용하여 다양한 종횡비를 가지는 금 나노막대를 합성하고, 나노막대 어레이 형태의 박막을 제작하였다. 금 나노막대의 합성은 알루미늄 양극산화막을 사용한 주형제조 방법(template method)을 사용하는 전기화학 증착법을 사용하였다. 우선 부도체인 알루미늄 양극 산화막의 한쪽면을 열증착 장비를 사용하여 금을 증착하여 작업 전극(working electrode)을 형성하였다. 백금 선(platinum wire)을 보조 전극(counter electrode)으로 사용하고 Ag/AgCl 전극을 기준 전극(reference electrode)으로 사용하여 삼전극계(three-electrode system)를 형성하였으며, 금 도금 용액(orotemp 24 gold plating solution, TECHNIC INC.)을 사용하여, 800 mV 전압에서 금 나노 막대를 합성하였다. 금 나노막대의 길이는 테플론 챔버를 통과한 전하량 또는 전기 증착 시간에 비례하여 결정된다. 금 나노막대를 성장시킨 알루미늄 양극산화막을 실리콘 웨이퍼에 은 페이스트를 사용하여 고정시킨 후 수산화나트륨 (NaOH)용액을 사용하여 알루미늄 양극산화막을 녹여내어 수직방향으로 정렬되어 있는 나노 막대 어레이 박막을 제조 하였다. 또한 제작된 금 나노막대 어레이의 광학적 특성을 평가하였다. 본 연구에서와 같이 나노막대를 직경방향으로 측정할 경우, 직경방향의 transverse mode만 측정된다. 금 나노 막대가 알루미늄 양극산화막 안에 포함된 상태로 측정된 금 나노로드 어레이 박막의 광 스펙트럼 분포는 금 나노막대의 가시광영역에서의 흡수 스펙트럼을 측정하였을시 직경 및 길이에 따라 transverse mode의 ${\lambda}$ max (최대 흡광)의 위치가 변화됨을 나타낸다. 실험 결과를 바탕으로 나노막대의 종횡비가 증가함에 따라 흡수 스펙트럼의 transverse mode ${\lambda}$ max가 미약하게 단파장 영역으로 이동하는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 이러한 결과는 원기둥 형태의 금 나노막대의 흡수 스펙트럼에 대한 이론적인 예측과 부합한다. 바이오센서로의 적용 가능성을 확인하기 위하여 자기조립단분자막을 형성하여 항체를 고정하고 CRP에 대한 응답특성을 평가하였다. CRP 항원-항체의 면역반응에 대한 실험 결과 CRP 항원의 농도가 증가함에 따라 넓은 측정범위에서 선형적으로 흡광도가 증가하는 결과를 나타내었으며, CRP 10 fg/ml의 농도까지 검출할 수 있었다. 센서의 선택성을 확인하기 위하여 감지하고자하는 대상물질이 아닌 Tn T 항원을 감지막에 반응시켜 흡광도 변화를 분석하였다. 결과적으로 제작된 센서칩은 선택성을 가지고 측정하고자하는 물질에만 반응함을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 다양한 직경을 사용한 부가적인 LSPR현상의 연구에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Structural Design and Experimental Investigation of A Medium Scale Composite Wind Turbine Blade Considering Fatigue Life (피로 수명을 고려한 중형 복합재 풍력터빈 블레이드의 구조설계 및 실험 평가)

  • Gong, Chang Deok;Bang, Jo Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the various load cases by specified by the IEC61400-1 international specification and GL Regulations for the wind energy conversion system were considered, and a specific composite structure configuration which can effectively endure various loads was proposed. In order to evaluate the structure, the structural analysis for the composite wind turbine blade was performed using the finite element method(FEM). In the structural design, the acceptable configuration of blade structure was determined through the parametric studies, and the most dominant design parameters were confirmed. In the stress analysis using the FEM, it was confirmed that the blade structure was safe and stable for all the considerd load cases. Moreover the safety of the blade root joint with insert bolts, newly devised in this study, was checked against the design loads and also the fatigue loads. The fatigue life for operating more than 20 years was estimated by using the well-known S-N linear damage rule, the load spectrum and Spera's empirical equations. The full-scale static test was performed under the simulated aerodynamic loads. from the experimental results, it was found that the designed blade had the structural integrity. Furthermore the measured results were agreed with the analytical results such as deflections, strains, the mass and the radial center of gravity. The studied blade was successfully certified by an international institute, GL, of Germany.

Analytical Analysis of Segmented Arc Plasma Torch for Plasma Wind Tunnel Facility (플라즈마 풍동 시설용 분절형 아크 플라즈마 토치의 이론적 설계변수 해석)

  • Seo, Jun-Ho;Choi, Soo-Seok;Choi, Seong-Man;Hong, Bong-Guen
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • A parametric study is conducted for the design of segmented arc plasma torch with the input power and current of 0.4 MW and 300 A, respectively. For this purpose, we use the analytical relationship between input power, current condition, plasma temperature, inner diameter (R) and length (L) of the torch constrictor based on arc channel model. The results reveal that arc plasma temperatures increase monotonically as ��L increases or R decreases for the ranges of R ${\leq}$ 7.5 mm and L ${\leq}$ 1.25 m. For larger valuse of ��R and L than 7.5 mm and 1.25 m, respectively, however, they show non-linear behavior corresponding to the variations of ��L, which stands for the generation of unstable arc plasma. From this parametric study, optimum ranges of R and L are suggested as 5.5 mm ${\leq}$ R ${\leq}$ 7.5 mm and 0.25 m ${\leq}$ L ${\leq}$ 0.5 m for 0.4 MW class segmented arc plasma torch, under which stable arc plasma can be achieved at the input currents of ~300 A.

Effect of Partial Prestressing Ratio and Effective Prestress on the Flexural Behavior of Prestressed Lightweight Concrete Beams (프리스트레스트 경량 콘크리트 보의 휨 거동에 대한 부분 프리스트레싱비와 유효 프리스트레스의 영향)

  • Yang, Keun-Hyeok;Moon, Ju-Hyun;Byun, Hang-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2011
  • The present investigation evaluates the flexural behavior of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams under two-point symmetrical concentrated loads according to the variation of the partial prestressing ratio and the effective prestress of prestressing strands. The designed compressive strength of the lightweight concrete with a dry density of 1,770 $kg/m^3$ was 35 MPa. The deformed bar with a yield strength of 383 MPa and three-wire mono-strands with tensile strength of 2,040 MPa were used for longitudinal tensile reinforcement and prestressing steel reinforcement, respectively. According to the test results, the flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams increased with the increase of the partial prestressing ratio and was marginally influenced by the effective prestress of strands. With the same reinforcing index, the normalized flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams was similar to that of pre-tensioned normal-weight concrete beams tested by Harajli and Naaman and Bennett. On the other hand, the displacement ductility ratio of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams increased with the decrease of the partial prestressing ratio and with the increase of the effective prestress of strands. The load-displacement relationship of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beam specimens can be suitably predicted by the developed non-linear two-dimensional analysis procedure. In addition, the flexural cracking moment and flexural capacity of pre-tensioned lightweight concrete beams can be conservatively evaluated using the elasticity theorem and the approach specified in ACI 318-08, respectively.

Behavior of Bearing Capacity for Shallow Foundation on a Sand overlying Clay Depending on Bearing Capacity Ratio (점토층 위 모래지반의 지지력비에 따른 얕은 기초의 지지력 거동)

  • Jung, Min Hyung;Shin, Hyo Hee;Lee, Song
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.198-208
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    • 2011
  • When a structure which has relatively low load constructs on soft clay, the bearing capacity of the ground will be improved by sand overlying clay. In this condition, verifying the bearing capacity is difficult from the P.B.T etcetera in the in-situ. So, it is needed to estimate precise bearing capacity in the design process. In this study, 2-dimensional chamber tests and FEM analyses are conducted to evaluate behavior of bearing capacity for shallow foundations on a sand overlying clay. Because depth ratio H/B and bearing capacity ratio $q_c/q_s$ are selected as main factors, height of a sand, undrained shear strength of a clay and width of a loading are designated as variables. Results from chamber tests are very similar with those of FEM analyses. And it shows that punching shear mechanism is more suitable than the equation of Okamura et al.(1998). To make continual application of load spread mechanism, the equivalent load spread angle is proposed for H/B and $q_c/q_s$. Also, the linear regression equation of critical depth ratio Hf is suggested for $q_c/q_s$.

Optimization Method for the Design of LCD Back-Light Unit (LCD Back-Light Unit 설계를 위한 최적화 기법)

  • Seo Heekyung;Ryu Yangseon;Choi Joonsoo;Hahn Kwang-Soo;Kim Seongcheol
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 2005
  • Various types of ray-tracing methods are used to predict the quantity measures of radiation illumination, the uniformity of illumination, radiation performance of LCD BLU(Hack-Light Unit). The uniformity of radiation illumination is one of the most important design factor of BLU and is usually controlled by the diffusive-ink pattern printed on the bottom of light-guide panel of BLU. Therefore it is desirable to produce an improved (ideally, the optimal) ink pattern to achieve the best uniformity of radiation illumination. In this paper, we applied the Welder-Mead simplex-search method among various direct search method to compute the optimal ink pattern. Direct search methods are widely used to optimize the functions which are often highly nonlinear, unpredictably discontinuous, and nondifferentiable, The ink-pattern controlling the uniformity of radiation illumination is one type of these functions. In this paper, we found that simplex search methods are well suited to computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. In extensive numerical testing, we have found the simplex search method to be reasonably efficient and reliable at computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. The result also suggests that optimization can improve the functionality of simulation tools which are used to design LCD BLU.

An analysis of horizontal deformation of a pile in soil using a beam-on-spring model for the prediction of the eigenfrequency of the offshore wind turbine (해상풍력터빈의 고유진동수 예측을 위한 지반에 인입된 파일의 탄성지지보 모델 기반 수평 거동 해석)

  • Ryue, Jungsoo;Baik, Kyungmin;Kim, Tae-Ryong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.261-271
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    • 2016
  • In the prediction of response of a pile in soil, numerical approaches such as a finite element method are generally applied due to complicate nonlinear behaviors of soils. However, the numerical methods based on the finite elements require heavy efforts in pile and soil modelling and also take long computing time. So their usage is limited especially in the early design stage in which principal dimensions and properties are not specified and tend to vary. On the contrary, theoretical approaches adopting linear approximations for soils are relatively simple and easy to model and take short computing time. Therefore, if they are validated to be reliable, they would be applicable in predicting responses of a pile in soil, particularly in early design stage. In case of wind turbines regarded in this study, it is required to assess their natural frequencies in early stages, and in this simulation the supporting pile inserted in soil could be replaced with a simplified elastic boundary condition at the bottom end of the wind turbine tower. To do this, analysis for a pile in soil is performed in this study to extract the spring constants at the top end of the pile. The pile in soil can be modelled as a beam on elastic spring by assuming that the soils deform within an elastic range. In this study, it is attempted to predict pile deformations and influence factors for lateral loads by means of the beam-on-spring model. As two example supporting structures for wind turbines, mono pile and suction pile models with different diameters are examined by evaluating their influence factors and validated by comparing them with those reported in literature. In addition, the deflection profiles along the depth and spring constants at the top end of the piles are compared to assess their supporting features.

Optimum Design of Soil Nailing Excavation Wall System Using Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network Theory (유전자 알고리즘 및 인공신경망 이론을 이용한 쏘일네일링 굴착벽체 시스템의 최적설계)

  • 김홍택;황정순;박성원;유한규
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.113-132
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    • 1999
  • Recently in Korea, application of the soil nailing is gradually extended to the sites of excavations and slopes having various ground conditions and field characteristics. Design of the soil nailing is generally carried out in two steps, The First step is to examine the minimum safety factor against a sliding of the reinforced nailed-soil mass based on the limit equilibrium approach, and the second step is to check the maximum displacement expected to occur at facing using the numerical analysis technique. However, design parameters related to the soil nailing system are so various that a reliable design method considering interrelationships between these design parameters is continuously necessary. Additionally, taking into account the anisotropic characteristics of in-situ grounds, disturbances in collecting the soil samples and errors in measurements, a systematic analysis of the field measurement data as well as a rational technique of the optimum design is required to improve with respect to economical efficiency. As a part of these purposes, in the present study, a procedure for the optimum design of a soil nailing excavation wall system is proposed. Focusing on a minimization of the expenses in construction, the optimum design procedure is formulated based on the genetic algorithm. Neural network theory is further adopted in predicting the maximum horizontal displacement at a shotcrete facing. Using the proposed procedure, various effects of relevant design parameters are also analyzed. Finally, an optimized design section is compared with the existing design section at the excavation site being constructed, in order to verify a validity of the proposed procedure.

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Developing Fire-Danger Rating Model (산림화재예측(山林火災豫測) Model의 개발(開發)을 위(爲)한 연구(硏究))

  • Han, Sang Yeol;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.80 no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 1991
  • Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.

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