• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.26 no.4B
• /
• pp.389-398
• /
• 2006

The present study compositely applied the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a kind of artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the back propagation algorithm (BPA) for the rainfall-runoff prediction model taking account of the irregular variation of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall. To solve the problems from the previous studies on ANNs, such as the overestimation of low flow during the dry season, the underestimation of runoff during the flood season and the persistence phenomenon, in which the predicted values continuously represent the preceding runoffs, we introduced SOM theory for the preprocessing in the prediction model. The theory is known that it has the pattern classification ability. The method proposed in the present research initially includes the classification of the rainfall-runoff relationship using SOM and the construction of the respective models according to the classification by SOM. The individually constructed models used the data corresponding to the respectively classified patterns for the runoff prediction. Consequently, the method proposed in the present study resulted in the better prediction ability of runoff than that of the past research using the usual application of ANNs and, in addition, there were no such problems of the under/over-estimation of runoff and the persistence.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.56 no.11
• /
• pp.765-774
• /
• 2023

Due to climatechange, precipitation variability has increased, leading to more frequentoccurrences of droughts and floods. To establish measures for managing waterresources in response to the increasing uncertainties of climate conditions, itis necessary to understand the variability of natural river discharge and theimpact of reservoir operation modeling considering dam inflow and artificialwater supply. In this study, an integrated rainfall-runoff and reservoiroperation modeling was applied to analyze the water supply reliability andflood risk for a multipurpose dam catchment under climate change conditions. Therainfall-runoff model employed was the modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètresJournalier (GR4J) model, and the reservoir operation model used was an R-basedmodel with the structure of HEC-Ressim. Applying the climate change scenariosuntil 2100 to the established integrated model, the changes in water supplyreliability and flood risk of the Happcheon Dam were quantitatively analyzed.The results of the water supply reliability analysis showed that under SSP2-4.5conditions, the water supply reliability was higher than that under SSP5-8.5conditions. Particularly, in the far-future period, the range of flood risk widened,and both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed the highest median flood riskvalues. While precipitation and runoff were expected to increase by less than10%, dam-released flood discharge was projected to surge by over 120% comparedto the baseline

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.48 no.3
• /
• pp.34-44
• /
• 2020

In order to suggest performance analysis directions of ecological components based on a vegetation-based LID system model, this study seeks to analyze the statistical significance between monitoring results by using SWMM computer simulation and rainfall and run-off simulation devices and provide basic data required for a preliminary system design. Also, the study aims to comprehensively review a vegetation-based LID system's soil, a vegetation model, and analysis plans, which were less addressed in previous studies, and suggest a performance quantification direction that could act as a substitute device-type LID system. After monitoring artificial rainfall for 40 minutes, the test group zone and the control group zone recorded maximum rainfall intensity of 142.91mm/hr. (n=3, sd=0.34) and 142.24mm/hr. (n=3, sd=0.90), respectively. Compared to a hyetograph, low rainfall intensity was re-produced in 10-minute and 50-minute sections, and high rainfall intensity was confirmed in 20-minute, 30-minute, and 40-minute sections. As for rainwater run-off delay effects, run-off intensity in the test group zone was reduced by 79.8% as it recorded 0.46mm/min at the 50-minute point when the run-off intensity was highest in the control group zone. In the case of computer simulation, run-off intensity in the test group zone was reduced by 99.1% as it recorded 0.05mm/min at the 50-minute point when the run-off intensity was highest. The maximum rainfall run-off intensity in the test group zone (Dv=30.35, NSE=0.36) recorded 0.77mm/min and 1.06mm/min in artificial rainfall monitoring and SWMM computer simulation, respectively, at the 70-minute point in both cases. Likewise, the control group zone (Dv=17.27, NSE=0.78) recorded 2.26mm/min and 2.38mm/min, respectively, at the 50-minutes point. Through statistical assessing the significance between the rainfall & run-off simulating systems and the SWMM computer simulations, this study was able to suggest a preliminary design direction for the rainwater run-off reduction performance of the LID system applied with single vegetation. Also, by comprehensively examining the LID system's soil and vegetation models, and analysis methods, this study was able to compile parameter quantification plans for vegetation and soil sectors that can be aligned with a preliminary design. However, physical variables were caused by the use of a single vegetation-based LID system, and follow-up studies are required on algorithms for calibrating the statistical significance between monitoring and computer simulation results.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.26 no.3B
• /
• pp.233-240
• /
• 2006

One of the main factor that effects on the CN's value in SCS Curve Number method for the estimation of direct runoff is the antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). It is also common to use the AMC-III in hydrologic practice, which provides the largest runoff as possible. In this paper, AMC defending on the rainfall characteristics is analyzed using daily rainfall data at rainy season (June~September) of the Seoul station from 1961 to 2002. The probability mass function of AMC is also investigated to analyze the variation of AMC based on climate change, scenarios from several General Circulation Model (GCM) predictions. As a results we can find that the occurrence of AMC-I is reduced, and AMC-III is increased, whereas AMC-II does not change.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.275-281
• /
• 2016

This study was conducted to analyze the runoff characteristics of the highway depending on the number of vehicles and to provide the installation proposal of an NPS pollution reduction facility. There were a total of 5 monitoring sites used for the study namely, Gyeongbu, Seohaean, Honam and Tongyeoung Dageon highway. Monitoring events started from 2006 until 2015 having a total of 44 storm events. According to monitoring statistics, the average antecedent dry days (ADD) and rainfall was 6.2 days and 19.2 mm, respectively. The Gyeongbu Highway (H-4) was recorded having the highest Average Daily Traffic and Catchment Area (ADT/CA) with $49.4car/day{\cdot}m^2$ while other site were less than $10car/day{\cdot}m^2$. The average concentration of the NPS pollutants generated from monitoring sites were 63.5 mg/L(TSS), 24.9 mg/L(BOD), 3.35 mg/L(TN), 0.63 mg/L(TP) and 298 ug/L(Total Zn). This exhibited lower values in comparison to the remarks of highway related runoff EMC values published in Korea. Moreover, through the results of the correlation analysis between the contaminant concentration and ADT/CA, $R^2$ value of SS showed the highest correlation with 585. Through the correlation equation between ADT/CA and EMC of TSS, when there is 73.7 mg/L of TSS EMC found from a domestic highway, ADT/CA ratio is normally $13car/day{\cdot}m^2$. Therefore, in a case of more than 13 cars passing through a certain area, the area can be considered and present as the point of generation of nonpoint source pollutants. Also, in this study, since it considered a unit area ADT indicated in previous studies, it was determined that it has a high applicability and utilization in generalized units than conventional study which were conventionally done.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.54 no.spc1
• /
• pp.1131-1141
• /
• 2021

In this study, the artificial neural network model is applied for real-time dam inflow prediction and then evaluated for the prediction lead times (1, 3, 6 hr) in dam basins in Korea. For the training and testing the model, hourly precipitation and inflow are used as input data according to average annual inflow. The results show that the model performance for up to 6 hour is acceptable because the NSE is 0.57 to 0.79 or higher. Totally, the predictive performance of the model in dry seasons is weaker than the performance in wet seasons, and this difference in performance increases in the larger basin. For the 6 hour prediction lead time, the model performance changes as the sequence length increases. These changes are significant for the dry season with increasing sequence length compared to the wet season. Also, with increasing the sequence length, the prediction performance of the model improved during the dry season. Comparison of observed and predicted hydrographs for flood events showed that although the shape of the prediction hydrograph is similar to the observed hydrograph, the peak flow tends to be underestimated and the peak time is delayed depending on the prediction lead time.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.231-235
• /
• 2009

본 연구에서는 홍수예보를 위한 사상형 모형인 저류함수모형 적용시 문제점을 개선하기 위해 기존의 저류함수 모형에 자유수와 장력수의 2개 영역으로 구성된 토양수분모의 컴포넌트를 결합하여 지표유출, 중간유출, 기저유출의 유출수문성분에 대한 연속적인 모의가 가능하도록 하였으며 실시간 홍수예측을 위해 다수의 유량 관측지점과의 실시간 오차 보정이 가능하도록 앙상블 칼만 필터링 기법을 도입하였다. 개발된 모형의 적용성을 평가하기 위해 낙동강 권역을 대상유역으로 선정하였으며 시단위 강우자료, 기상자료, 유량자료를 비롯하여 GIS를 기반의 지형자료를 구축하였다. 연속형 저류함수형의 매개변수 추정결과 주요지점의 관측유량에 대해 높은 적합도를 보였으며 1시간 선행시간의 홍수량 예측결과에서도 높은 정확도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국항공운항학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2016.05a
• /
• pp.136-141
• /
• 2016

본 논문에서는 항행안전시설을 구성하는 구성요소를 체계별로 구분하고 체계별 운영시간 에 따른 고장율 등을 분석한다. 아울러 설계수명에 점차 도달한 항행안전시설 운영단계에서 발생한 유지보수비용 데이터를 토대로 남은 설계수명 기간 동안 향후 발생 가능한 유지보수 비용을 추정한다. 이런 분석결과를 통해 장비의 신뢰성 관련 선행연구들에서 주로 인용되고 있는 욕조커브(Bathtub Curve) 이론과 본 연구의 비용예측 결과와의 연관성을 진단하고 안정적인 유지보수를 위한 기초자료로서 활용되고자 한다. ARIMA 예측모형을 토대로 향후 10개월 간 발생가능한 유지보수 비용을 예측한 결과 비용이 상승할 것이라는 통계적으로 신뢰할 만한 추정 결과를 얻었다. ARIMA를 활용한 추정결과는 앞선 MTBF 분석내용을 지지함과 동시에 시설의 정비 신뢰도를 보여주는 욕조커브 분포와 일치하는 신뢰할 수 있는 결론을 얻은 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.1132-1136
• /
• 2004

본 논문은 지금까지의 지점빈도해석의 약점을 보완하기 위하여 지역화의 개념을 사용한 지역빈도해석의 방법에 관한 연구이다. 지점빈도해석은 수문자료의 관측기간이 짧은 경우 정확도에 문제를 발생시킬 수 있으므로, 지점 내 충분한 수의 자료 확보가 선행되어야 한다. 반면 지역빈도해석의 경우 우리나라와 같이 자료의 수가 부족한 경우에도 효율적이고 안정적인 확률수문량을 산정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 한강유역의 강우자료 선별을 통해 신뢰성 있는 자료를 구축한 훈, L-모멘트기법과 Netmax법을 사용한 지역빈도해석을 각각 실시하여 기존의 방법으로 산정한 수문량과 비교${\cdot}$분석하였다. 지역빈도해석의 결과 남한강 유역은 이질성 척도가 큰 것으로 판명되어 남한강 유역의 경우 지역적인 세분화가 필요한 것으로 나타났다. Netmax를 이용하여 산정된 수문량은 L-모멘트법과 지점빈도해석 그리고 확률강우량도에 의해 산정된 값에 비하여 과소추정 되었다 지역적 특수성을 고려하지 않고 형성된 네트워크는 지역적으로 세분화가 필요한 지역에 대하여서 좋지 않은 결과를 보여주는 것으로 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.173-177
• /
• 2004

수리${\cdot}$수문 분석시 비교내상으로 사용되고 있는 기존 합리식을 국내외 자료를 통해 고찰하여 적합한 확률론적 합리식을 나타내고, 선행강우조건, 토지 이용도, 경사도, 그리고 재현기간이 고려된 수정 유출계수를 제시한 후, 유출계수의 객관적인 산출이 가능한 GIS기법을 도입하여 설계자의 주관을 배제할 수 있도록 하며, 국내 시험유험에 적용하여 유역 특성이 고려된 유출량을 산정할 수 있도록 하는 것이다. 제안된 수정유출계수는 국내 시험유역의 하나인 설마천 자연하천유역에 도입하여 적합성 여부를 검토하였으려, 자연하천유역에서 사용가능한 수정유출계수를 제안하였다.