• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.181-188
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• 2017

In the existing ship sales market, prices determined based on the prices of similar ship types that recently traded. ince the 2008 financial crisis, ship prices have fluctuated, and ship price criteria have become ever more necessary to the imminent value of the ship. Therefore, this research used the hedonic price model to estimate imminent values of ships. In this study, the influence on ship prices was analyzed by the value of each characteristic and an estimated functional formula was. Out of the four models suggested by the hedonic price model, an optimal model was selected with variance inflation factors and a stepwise selection. For this, the influence of determinants of ship prices was analyzed based on actually traded ships and characteristic data. The selected model s the Log-Line model; as a result of regression analysis, eight variables, including DWT, Age, Market Value, Short-Term Charter, Long-Term Charter, Enbloc, Special Survey Due and Builder were to affect the ship price model. This model is expected to be useful for objective and balanced ship price evaluation.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.243-254
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• 2023

This study investigates the factors contributing to price fluctuations in the shipscrapping market, the final stage in a vessel's life cycle. Shipping companies make decisions on ship dismantling based on factors such as declining freight rates, increasing vessel age leading to higher costs, or compliance with new environmental regulations. Utilizing the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) methodologies, the research explores the long-term elasticities of factors influencing shipscrapping prices and examines short-term causal relationships. Using a time series dataset spanning from December 2015 to April 2023, covering a total of 90 months, the study focuses on the shipscrapping prices of Capesize vessels in India and Bangladesh, which constitute a significant portion of the shipbreaking market. The findings indicate that, in the long term, shipscrapping prices are closely related to global scrap prices, 20-year-old secondhand Capesize vessel prices, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. In terms of short-term causal relationships, an increase in global scrap prices induces a rise in shipscrapping prices, while the remaining variables do not contribute to such increases. Specifically, an escalation in shipscrapping prices is associated with increased prices of 20-year-old secondhand vessels, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. However, the other variables do not show a significant influence on short-term increases in shipscrapping prices.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.183-200
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• 2018

This study empirically tests the presence of rational bubbles in the ship prices using time series data from October 1996 to April 2017. To detect the existence of ship prices' rational bubbles, we use integration and cointegration tests, which were proposed by Campbell and Shiller(1987) and Diba and Grossman(1988), for circumventing misspecification of ship price model and applying the bubble test to nonstationary time series. The result of integration test supports existence of tanker price's rational bubble. The co-integration test also shows that drybulk ship and containership prices have been overvalued relative to the market fundamental, drybulk and container freight rates, due to non-stationary rational bubbles. These results provide Korean shipping industry and authorities implications that anticyclical ship investment and long-term and steady fleet capacity expansion policy are needed.

• 해운
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• no.2 s.25
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• pp.38-38
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• 2006

• Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.64-67
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• 1995

우리나라 조선산업이 21세기에 명실상부한 선진 조선국으로 발돋움하기 위해서는 단기적으로는 가격경쟁력의 강화가 요구되나 장기적으로는 기술자립화를 통해 과거 가격위주의 경쟁체제에서 기술위주의 경쟁체제로 전환함으로써 질적인 성장을 추구해야 할 것이다. 또한 우리나라의 조 선산업은 세계조선시장을 리드하는 선도국으로서 세계선박수급구조의 안정화에 노력하고 지구 해양환경보호를 위한 국제적인 프로그램에 적극 참여하는 한편, 후발조선국에 대한 기술협력, 기술지도 등 국제협력도 강화하여 명실상부한 선진조선국의 면모를 갖추어야 할 것이다. 이를 효과적으로 추진하기 위해서는 다음과 같은 과제를 해결해야 할 것이다. 첫째, 효율적 기술개발을 통한 건조기술의 재고가 그 무엇보다도 중요하다. 즉 단기적으로는 주요 대체수요 선박이면서 국내 주력건조선박인 탱커, 벌크케리어 등 재래단순형 선박에 대해 성에 너지화, 성인력화 및 표준선형화하고, 선박 생산공정의 개선, 생산성 향상을 통해 가격경쟁력을 지속적으로 확보해야할 것이다. 그러나 중장기적으로는 가스운반선,카페리선, 초고속선 등의 부가가치선박에 대한 건 조기술의 자립화로 이들 선종을 주력선종화하여 해외 수주 경쟁력을 재고시켜야 한다. 이와함께 심해탐사장비, 해양구조부유물 등의 해양개발장비의 개발로 사업영역을 확대해야할 것이다. 상 기의 각종 기술재발을 효율적으로 추진하기 위해서는 범국가적인 연구체제의 구성을 통한 산학연 공동연구형태로 추진하는 것이 바람직하다. 둘째, 핵심 조선기자재의 국산화와 품질 향상이 필 요하다. 향후 조선기자재의 국산화추진은 과거 개발 품목의 확대에서 벗어나 핵심적이고 부가 가치가 높은 품목 위주의 질적 국산화로 전환되어야 할 것이며, 이때 국산화이후 조선소의 적 극적인 구매가 전제되어야 할 것이다. 또한 기자재의 품질, 성능검사기능의 강화와 다수요 품목을 중심으로한 표준화, 규격화의 확대 추진으로 지속적인 품질향상과 원가절감을 도모해야한다. 특히 조선기자재업체의 영세상을 감안하여 조선소 인근지역에 단지화함으로써 생산설비의 현 대화, 자재의 공동구매, 물류비용의 절감 등을 기해 가격경쟁력을 강화해야 할 것이다. 또한 업계 공동의 해외판매망, A/S망의 직수출을 늘려야 할 것이다. 셋째, 국제협력 강화로 통상환경에 적극 대응해야 한다. 다자간조선협정 발효에 따른 제소 가능성에 대비하여 관민차원의 국제협 력을 강화하는 한편, 회계 기준의 통일, 제소사례의 연구 등을 업계 공동으로 추진하는 것이 바 람직하다. 또한 향후 2010년이후에 중국을 비롯한 후발조선국에 대해 조선협정에의 참여를 유도, 세계조선시장의 수급안정화에 노력해야할 것이다. 그외에 국제적으로 추진되는 지구그린화에 주도적 역할을 수행해야 할 것이다. 넷째, 선박금융제도의 개선과 신금융상품의 개발이 요구된다. 내수 수요인 계획조선의 지원조건을 개선하고 연불수출자금을 BBC자금으로 활용토록하여 국내 선주들의 신조를 유도해야 할 것이다. 그 외에 향후 금융개방화에 맞추어 해외자금을 활용한 리스금융, 상사금융 등의 민간신용제도를 더욱 활성화하고 선진국의 선박금융기법에 대한 연구 및 도입 등 선주들에게 다양한 선박건조자금을 제공하여 내수기반 확충에도 노력해야 할 것 이다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.10
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• pp.179-184
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• 2021

In this paper, we propose the deep learning-based neural network model to predict bunker price. In the shipping industry, since fuel oil accounts for the largest portion of ship operation costs and its price is highly volatile, so companies can secure market competitiveness by making fuel oil purchasing decisions based on rational and scientific method. In this paper, short-term predictive analysis of HSFO 380CST in Singapore is conducted by using three recurrent neural network models like RNN, LSTM, and GRU. As a result, first, the forecasting performance of RNN models is better than LSTM and GRUs using long-term memory, and thus the predictive contribution of long-term information is low. Second, since the predictive performance of recurrent neural network models is superior to the previous studies using econometric models, it is confirmed that the recurrent neural network models should consider nonlinear properties of bunker price. The result of this paper will be helpful to improve the decision quality of bunker purchasing.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.75-87
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to utilize the system dynamics to carry out a medium and long-term forecasting analysis of the bunker price. In order to secure accurate bunker price forecast, a quantitative analysis was established based on the casual loop diagram between various variables that affects bunker price. Based on various configuration variables such as crude oil price which affects crude oil consumption & production, GDP and exchange rate which influences economic changes and freight rate which is decided by supply and demand in shipping and logistic market were used in accordance with System Dynamics to forecast bunker price and then objectivity was verified through MAPEs. Based on the result of this study, bunker price is expected to rise until 2029 compared to 2016 but it will not be near the surge sighted in 2012. This study holds value in two ways. First, it supports shipping companies to efficiently manage its fleet, offering comprehensive bunker price risk management by presenting structural relationship between various variables affecting bunker price. Second, rational result derived from bunker price forecast by utilizing dynamic casual loop between various variables.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2016

This study empirically examines the dynamic specification of the ship price model based on a vector autoregressive model and data covering from January 2000 to October 2014. Our results are summarized as follows: first, the relationship between ship price and interest rate shows significantly negative and the relationship between ship price and freight rate shows positive. It provides consistent implication that ship price depends on interest rate and freight rate under the dynamic Gordon model. Second, we apply an impulse response analysis to ship price and find the responses of the ship price from both factors, interest rate and freight rate, which affect during seven periods approximately. Finally, the results of a variance decomposition indicate that freight rate is more important than interest rate on the ship price.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.9-18
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• 2003

This is a study for international competitiveness analysis if korea ship management service using the collected data from the fields in industry. making a comparison if ship management company between domestic ones in Korea and mutinational ones in international market is more suitable for it's purpose. but competitiveness level of korean ship management companies are too low to compare. Therefore in this study, ship management devision in Korea overseas shipping companies are selected as a target of camparision and the representative of Korea ship management industry. The analysis of competitiveness is divided by price competition and non-price competition. The former is consist of element likes as crew management cost, dry-docking cost, repair cos, stores & spares cost, lubricants cost and management free cost, The later os consist of element like as quality of sea & shore personnel, efficiency of company's organization, ability of management system. qualifications & certifications, know -hoe for the ship management, structure of control & support ship and office automation & IT system. According to this analysis the ship management division in korean shipping companied are superior to the foreign specialized ship management companies generally. So, it is necessary that korea ship management industry attempt level-up continously and expand into international ship management market positively.