• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.141-152
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• 2011

During major elections, three terrestrial broadcasting stations in Korea have covered the progresses of election results by announcing the simple sum of ballot counts of all ballot counting stations. The current approach, however, does not properly reflect the actual ballot count differences by ballot counting location, leading to cause unnecessary but possible confusions. In addition, the current coverage approach restricts the broadcasters from using regional poll data gained through exit polls by letting them to use the significant information on a one-off purpose to announce the initial prediction of the poll results and to fully disregard the exit poll results during the ballot counting process. Based on the understanding, this paper is designed to suggest a Bayesian approach to consolidate the exit poll results with the progressive ballot counting results and announce them as such. The suggested consolidation approach is expected to mitigate or avoid the possible confusions that may arise in connection with the different ballot counting paces by ballot counting station.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.111-120
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• 2020

As an application of big data and artificial intelligence techniques, this study proposes an atypical language-based sentimental opinion poll methodology, unlike conventional opinion poll methodology. An alternative method for the sentimental classification model based on existing statistical analysis was to collect real-time Twitter data related to parliamentary elections and perform empirical analyses on the Polarity and Intensity of public opinion using attribute-based sensitivity analysis. In order to classify the polarity of words used on individual SNS, the polarity of the new Twitter data was estimated using the learned Lasso and Ridge regression models while extracting independent variables that greatly affect the polarity variables. A social network analysis of the relationships of people with friends on SNS suggested a way to identify peer group sensitivity. Based on what voters expressed on social media, political opinion sensitivity analysis was used to predict party approval rating and measure the accuracy of the predictive model polarity analysis, confirming the applicability of the sensitivity analysis methodology in the political field.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.627-641
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• 2012

We consider a model estimation and model selection methods for the multi-way contingency table data with non-response or missing values. We also consider hierarchical Bayesian model in order to handle a boundary solution problem that can happen in the maximum likelihood estimation under non-ignorable non-response model and we deal with a model selection method to find the best model for the data. We utilized Bayes factors to handle model selection problem under Bayesian approach. We applied proposed method to the pre-election survey for the 2004 Korean National Assembly race. As a result, we got the non-ignorable non-response model was favored and the variable of voting intention was most suitable.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

• Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.883-893
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• 2018

The inflow of Labor Migrants has been grown up to 600,000 people until now with the adoption of Employment Permit System (EPS) in 2004 until now. However the institutional support lack to ensure their rights and improve their conditions. This is because of their consideration ad temporary labors in South Korean society and labor forces rather than the objects of integration. As a result, the legal status and rights of migrant workers are criticized for their utilization rather than human rights, and human rights protection is insufficient. To this context, this paper analyzed the 19th presidential election pledge of the four political parties (Democratic Party, the Liberty Korea Party, Bareun Party and Justice Party) the majority of the Korean National Assembly, and predicted how the policies of migrant workers would evolve. The study found that there were two political parties that did not mention policies for migrant workers, and the remaining two parties also maintained their current policies. This is probably the biggest reason to recognize migrant workers as temporary residents. However, they should also be aware of the fact, that migrant workers are the members of the Korean society and are the owners of human rights that should be guaranteed, and should consider the policy directions to live with them.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2012.11a
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• pp.1770-1772
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• 2012

현재 인터넷 공간은 사람들의 관심사나 사회적인 이슈들을 반영하고 있다. 사회적으로 어떤 사건이 발생하면 그 사건에 관한 뉴스 기사나 관련된 다양한 콘텐츠들이 생성되어 여러 사람들에게 소비되고 공유된다. 뿐만 아니라 이와는 반대로 인터넷 공간에서 사람들에게 많은 관심을 받거나 이슈가 된 사건이 사회적인 관심거리가 되기도 한다. 최근에는 인터넷 공간에서 발생하는 정보 검색이나 콘텐츠 생성 패턴을 분석하여 실제 사회에서의 이슈나 트렌드를 예측하려는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이 논문에서는 인터넷을 기반으로 분석한 자료와 전문 기관에서 분석한 자료의 상관관계를 분석하고자 한다. 그 중 최근 뉴스나 콘텐츠가 많이 생산되는 2012년 대통령 선거 후보에 관한 인터넷 뉴스 기사량과 전문조사 기관에서 발표한 각 후보의 지지율을 보이고 두 자료 간의 상관관계를 분석한다. 그리고 실험 결과로 대선 후보들의 기사 점유율과 발표된 지지율에 높은 상관관계가 있음을 보인다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1003-1016
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• 2014

Proper missing data imputation is an important procedure to obtain superior results for data analysis based on survey data. This paper deals with both a model based imputation method and model estimation method. We utilized a Bayesian method to solve a boundary solution problem in which we applied a maximum likelihood estimation method. We also deal with a missing mechanism model selection problem using forecasting results and a comparison between model accuracies. We utilized MWPE(modified within precinct error) (Bautista et al., 2007) to measure prediction correctness. We applied proposed ML and Bayesian methods to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012. Based on the analysis, the results under the missing at random mechanism showed superior prediction results than under the missing not at random mechanism.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.6
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• pp.1041-1045
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• 2010

Short-term electric load forecasting of power systems is essential for the power system stability and the efficient power system operation. An accurate load forecasting scheme improves the power system security and saves some economic losses in power system operations. Due to scarcity of the historical same type of holiday load data, most big electric load forecasting errors occur on load forecasting for the holidays. The fuzzy linear regression model has showed good accuracy for the load forecasting of the holidays. However, it is not good enough to forecast the load of the election day. The concept of the load variation rate for the load forecasting of the election day is introduced. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy in that the average percentage error for the short-term 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is 2.27%. The accuracy of the proposed 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is compared with the fuzzy linear regression method. The proposed method gives much better forecasting accuracy with overall average error of 2.27%, which improved about average error of 2% as compared to the fuzzy linear regression method.

• 프린팅코리아
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.64-72
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• 2009

인쇄물은 크게 줄고, 인쇄기기 투자심리는 꽁꽁 얼어붙고, 인쇄부자재 가격은 계속 오르고..., 2009년 인쇄업계의 그림이다. 미국 금융위기로 촉발한 국내외 경기침체는 2008년에 이어 2009년도 지속돼 우리나라 인쇄업계는 1997년의 IMF외환위기 때보다 더욱 심각한 경영난에 처할 것으로 우려된다. 정부와 경기예측 기관들의 분석을 보면 2009년의 경제성장률은 2%선을 밑돌 것으로 보고 있다. 성장률 2%는 인쇄업계에 치명적이다. 기관과 기업의 홍보물이 크게 감소하기 때문. 특히 불황이 먼저 시작되고 회복은 늦는 특성을 지니는 산업이 인쇄업종이어서 대책 마련이 시급한 상황이다. 분야별 전문가들이 진단한 내용을 보면 2009년 인쇄물 생산은 전년대비 60%선에 머물 것으로 전망되었다. 또한 2009년에는 선거나 특별한 국제행사가 없어 '인쇄물 특수'도 없는 상황이다. 특히 2008년에 종이와 필름 등 원부자재 가격이 큰 폭으로 오른데 이어 2009년에도 인상이 예고되어 있고, 환율상승으로 인한 금융 부담이 커져 자금난이 심각할 것으로 보인다. 그나마 다행이라면 인쇄물 수출이 지난해 수준으로만 유지되면 환율의 영향으로 수출업체들은 채산성이 다소 호전될 수 있다는 점이다. 인쇄설비 투자는 거의 이루어지지 못할 것으로 보인다. 현재의 환율과 경기상황으로 볼 때 신규설비 투자는 불가능에 가깝다. 이에 따라 장비공급 업체들은 영업을 당분간 중단하거나 업종의 다변화를 시도할 것으로 전망된다. 다만 블루오션 개발과 시대흐름에 맞춘 디지털인쇄 장비의 수요는 미동 수준의 움직임이 있을 것으로 보인다. 다음은 분야별로 전문가들이 보는 전망이다.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.44
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• pp.108-143
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• 2008

Candidate images refer to a holistic impression of a candidate which is composed of various dimensions of attributes. This study investigated how online and offline news media, campaign media such as political ads, televised debates, and candidate web-sites, and interpersonal political talk influenced voters' images of a candidate in such dimensions as personal traits, job-performance abilities, and policy capabilities, and further their political decision making in the 17th presidential election in Korea. The analysis focused on President Lee, Myung Bak who won the election by obtaining nearly 50% of the effective votes. According to the data analyses, first, uses of offline newspapers positively influenced voters' images of candidate Lee's personal traits such as his morality, integrity, trustworthiness, and compassion, yet online news uses had an opposite effect on voters' impression of his job-performance and economic policy capabilities. Secondly, among various campaign media, television ads and candidate web-sites positively contributed to the formation of candidate Lee's images, yet showed little direct effect on vote choice, indicating that campaign media mainly indirectly influenced voters' political decision making. Each of the first, second, and third televised candidate debates revealed unique effects on image formation and vote choice. Thirdly, the network size and frequency of political talk negatively influenced image formation regarding candidate Lee's personal traits and economic policy capabilities, yet the discussion network size positively contributed to the Lee votes. Forth, among various dimensions of candidate images, voters' perceptions of candidate Lee's personal traits appeared to be the most significant predictor of the support for him.