• Survey Research
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.91-118
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• 2002

Korean election polls has a history of fifteen years, which may seem too short while those of advanced countries such as the U.S and the UK has a history of one hundred fifty years. However, with various and creative attempts, some of the Korean research companies have developed election polls methods and theories which can be applied to Korean society. They also elevated accuracy of the election forecasts. In spite of short history the rational and scientific polls and forecasts done by some of the research companies including Gallup Korea are commented that they have improved the quality of Korean election culture. In the article, we will look into the process of the election polls which have been done seven times for 15 years, and then deal with the meaning of the election polls.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.81-104
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• 2007

This paper discusses the central issues of election studies and in this contort, suggests the panel survey method as an alternative to general opinion surveys. In doing so, it also explains the advantages and benefits that a panel survey provides, and discusses the weakness of the 2006 panel survey. East Asia Institutes, constructing the consortium which includes JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Hankook Research, traces the change in voting decisions during the 2006 Korean Local Elections. Four regional panels, focusing on the gubernatorial elections in Seoul, Pusan, Kwangju, and Chungnam, enable researchers to study the critical issues of election studies such as the causal relations among a set of voting determinants, the impact of campaigns, and the characteristics of floating voters.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.315-325
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• 2016

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.251-271
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• 2006

동아시아연구원은 중앙일보, SBS, 한국리서치와 컨소시엄을 구성하여 5 31 지방선거에 패널조사 기법을 활용하여 민심의 변화를 추적하였다. 패널여론조사는 개별 투표 결정요인의 역동성은 물론 요인 간 인과관계에 대한 분석에서 일반여론조사의 한계를 극복하는 대안으로 간주된다. 지역 패널의 경우 서울, 부산, 광주, 충남의 4개 지역 광역단체장 선거를 중심으로 1차 패널 각 800명으로 출발하여 4차 조사 패널 유지율 70% 상회하는 결과를 바탕으로 결정요인 간의 인과관계, 선거 운동의 영향력, 부동층 등 선거 연구의 핵심 쟁점에 대한 분석을 가능케 하는 자료를 구축하였다. 그럼에도 불구하고 패널의 대표성 문제, 지역감정의 지수 계발 등 문제점도 노정되었다. 논문은 선거 연구의 핵심적 쟁점에 대한 논의와 이와 관련하여 일반여론조사의 대안으로 부상한 패널조사 기법의 장 단점을 논의하고 이의 구체적인 사례로 5 31 지방선거 패널조사의 기획과정과 결과를 보고한다.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.31-54
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• 2007

This paper examined the electoral polling methodologies such as sampling method, sampling frame and the classification of the don't-know responses. Quota sampling method seemed to be one of the major factors for the declining trust in the poll results. We suggested that new procedures for random sampling as well as the bad number screening procedures for RDD selection of phone numbers need to be developed. Also we reviewed how the KBS used the polls in defining voters' agenda and in communicating the public agenda to the candidates. In Korea, rates for the polls were based mainly on the number of interviews completed. It seemed to keep the polling companies from tim new and more time-demanding polling methods. Also various utilization of the polls are limited by the tendency to keep the questionnaire short.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.62
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• pp.159-178
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• 2013

The current study examined the effects of the voters' perception of television news coverage of election poll results on their political participation intention. 700 voters participated in a telephone interview three weeks before the 2012 Korean presidential election. A structural equation modeling with the nationally representative sample was performed. The findings indicate the respondents were more likely to evaluate television news coverage of election poll results negatively when the news coverage presented that the candidate they supported was behind in the race, and the negative evaluation was linked to a greater third-person perception. The third-person perception, in turn, had an indirect effect on political participation intention through negative emotional responses. The results imply that voters' political position influences their perception of the television news coverage of election poll results, and this perception can have indirect effects on political participation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.129-139
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• 2002

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.845-854
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• 2008

Survey reports of election opinions consist of numerous cross-tabulations between socio-demographic variables and political opinions including preferred candidates. Since socio-demographic variables are related each other, duplicate interpretations arise. The aim of this study is twofold: The first is to separate the effects of socio variables such as education, occupation and income from the effects of demographic variables such as region, sex and age. The second is the visualization of multiple cross-tabulations in low-dimensional space by extended doubling technique of correspondence analysis. Survey researchers may get some help from this study to present their survey results more lucidly and visually.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.21-36
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• 2009

This study suggests the applicability of web surveys regarding elections in order to contact a great number of young people. The propensity weighting model was estimated using the demographic variables and the covariate variables collected during the 2007 presidential election surveys. In order to adjust the internet survey to the telephone survey, we used the propensity score method. Propensity score weighting made the internet survey results closer to the telephone survey results. This shows that an internet survey with propensity weighting model is a potential alternative survey method in the prediction of elections.