• Title/Summary/Keyword: 생존 확률

Search Result 162, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Population Viability Analysis of a Gold-spotted Pond Frog (Rana chosenica) Population: Implications for Effective Conservation and Re-introduction (금개구리 (Rana chosenica) 개체군의 생존분석: 개체군의 효과적인 보존과 야생복귀를 위한 제안)

  • Cheong, Seok-Wan;Sung, Ha-Cheol;Park, Dae-Sik;Park, Shi-Ryong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.73-81
    • /
    • 2009
  • Population viability analysis of a Gold-spotted pond frog (Rana chosenica) population at Cheongwon-gun, Chungbuk, in South Korea was conducted and we proposed several suggestions for effective conservation and re-introduction of the species. Simulating a developed model over 1,000 times predicted that the population will exist over 30 years with a relatively low growth rate of 0.113, but with a high probability of extinction as 81.1%. Population growth and extinction probability were the most greatly depended on the rate of successful metamorphosis. In the case of outbreak of amphibian diseases such as Chytridiomycosis and Ranavirus, the population will be easily extinct within 4 years with 100% probability. In a habitat of which carrying capacity is 200, to successfully re-introduce an extinct population, it is initially needed to put 100 individuals of which 83% is males and its age structure is normal-distributed. If we additionally conducts artificial supplementation of 10% individuals every 2 years from 4 years to 10 years after initial reintroduction, the population will become a stable with 0.297 growth rate and 0.290 extinction rate. Our results are the first case of amphibian population viability analysis in Korea and could be used to develop effective conservation and re-introduction plans for endangered Gold-spotted pond frog.

Redundancy Management for a Duplex FBW Flight Control System (2중으로 다중화된 FBW/ FCS의 다중화 관리)

  • Nam, Yoon-Su;Hong, Sung-Kyung;Yoo, Chang-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.32 no.10
    • /
    • pp.46-52
    • /
    • 2004
  • A design methodology of the redundancy management for a duplex FBW flight control system is introduced. A statistical analysis is applied to determine two design parameters in CCM(Cross Channel Monitor), threshold and persistence count. An analytic redundancy, which is implemented using a Kalman filtering algorithm is considered. The application of an analytic redundancy to the FCS design of the smart UAV has several advantages of increasing the aircraft's survivability and breaking the tie-condition for a duplex FCS. All the redundancy management algorithms are verified through the numeric simulation for the flight dynamics of the XV-15 tilt rotor.

A Multipath Establishing Scheme using Pre-search in Ad Hoc Networks (애드혹 망에서 사전탐색을 통한 다중경로 설정)

  • Lee, Kil-Hung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.129-135
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper suggests a multipath establishing scheme for ad hoc networks. Data paths are established by on-demand manner. Multipath are made as a sequence of route control message exchange at route setup process. Multipath can be used as a backup path or load balancing for data exchange. Proposed scheme uses a one-hop pre-search scheme for establishing multipath between source and destination. When a node selects a next node for route reply, the node finds optimal route by exchanging route information with neighbor nodes. Simulation results show that the proposed multipath scheme has better split characteristics among multipath and higher route survivability at the environment where nodes are moving.

Analysis of the Time Intervals in 119 Ambulance Services (119 구급서비스의 시간 분석)

  • Jang, Kyungho;Kang, Kyunghee;Jang, Yoonhee;Hahn, Kyungdong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.128-134
    • /
    • 2016
  • The ambulance service time interval, in particular the response time, has been used as an important indicator for the quality control of ambulance services in that it can be improved to increase the probability of survival and decrease the sequela-related disability. Based on the 2011~2014 Prehospital Care Reports in a metropolitan city, this study analyzed the time interval of ambulance services considering the patient's characteristics and chief complaints. If the definition of the time of ambulance services can be refined further, and a variety of economic and social factors and local characteristics would can be analyzed, the quality of the ambulance service is expected to be enhanced significantly.

Mechanical Behavior of Steel Pipe Pin-Cups Embedded in Concrete (콘크리트에 매입된 강관 핀컵의 역학적 거동)

  • Jo, Jae Byung;Im, Seok Bean
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
    • /
    • v.16 no.5 s.72
    • /
    • pp.705-712
    • /
    • 2004
  • To investigate the mechanical behavior of pin cups created from steel pipes embedded in concrete, test blocks were made and load tests were conducted. The pin was inserted in the pin cup at various depths and was loaded in a lateral direction at a constant displacement speed. A formula, which took into consideration the deformation and failure shapes of the pin cups, observed during and after the tests, was used to estimate its mechanical behavior. The test values were determined to be relevant to the formula and were distributed within a reasonably narrow range. The mean and the 95% survival probability value of maximum resistance were determined by factoring the formula at 1.01 and 0.92, respectively.

Fountain Code-based Hybrid P2P Storage Cloud (파운틴 코드 기반의 하이브리드 P2P 스토리지 클라우드)

  • Park, Gi Seok;Song, Hwangjun
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.58-63
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this work, we present a novel fountain code-based hybrid P2P storage system that combines cloud storage with P2P storage. The proposed hybrid storage system minimizes data transmission time while guaranteeing high data retrieval and data privacy. In order to guarantee data privacy and storage efficiency, the user transmits encoded data after performing fountain code-based encoding. Also, the proposed algorithm guarantees the user's data retrieval by storing the data while considering each peer's survival probability. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm enables fast completion of the upload transmission while satisfying the required data retrieval and supporting the privacy of user data under the system parameters.

Optimum Design of Composite Laminated Beam Using GA (유전알고리즘을 이용한 복합 적층보의 최적설계)

  • 구봉근;한상훈;이상근
    • Computational Structural Engineering
    • /
    • v.10 no.4
    • /
    • pp.349-358
    • /
    • 1997
  • The present paper describes an investigation into the application of the genetic algorithm (GA) in the optimum design of composite laminated structure. Stochastic processes generate an initial population of designs and then apply principles of natural selection/survival of the fittest to improve the designs. The five test functions are used to verify the robustness and reliability of the GA, and as a numerical example, minimum weight of a cantilever composite laminated beam with a mix of continuous, integer and discrete design variables is obtained by using the GA with exterior penalty function method. The design problem has constraints on strength, displacements, and natural frequencies, and is formulated to a multidimensional nonlinear form. From the results, it is found that the GA search technique is very effective to find the good optimum solution as well as has higher robustness.

  • PDF

A Study on Insensitive Munition Test and Evaluation for Solid Rocket Motor (고체추진기관 둔감시험 평가 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Do-Hyung;Kim, Chang-Kee;Lee, Hwan-Gyu;Yoo, Ji-Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2010.05a
    • /
    • pp.129-132
    • /
    • 2010
  • The objective of IM rocket motor is to minimize the probability of inadvertent initiation and severity of subsequent collateral damage, hence it is important to define personnel and equipment survivability to a rocket motor accident. The violent response probability associated with shock, impact and thermal effects be minimized. And during production, transportation/storage and stack of rocket motor, sympathetic detonation, giving severe effects of the propagation of adverse reaction on its surroundings, be reduced. Hence Reaction type also based on reaction results of the overpressure, fragment throw and heat flux.

  • PDF

RD-Optimized Search-Mode Restriction Method on the Enhancement Layer for Fast Encoding of H.264 Scalable Extension (H.264 스케일러블 확장 규격의 고속 부호화를 위한 향상계층의 RD-최적화된 탐색 모드 제한 기법)

  • Lee, Keum-Hee;Lim, Jin-Young;Jung, Kyeong-Hoon;Kim, Ki-Doo;Kang, Dong-Wook
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.152-161
    • /
    • 2008
  • We investigate that when we restrict the encoding modes on the enhancement layer based on that of the base layer exploiting the high correlation between the best modes at base and enhancement layers, we should determine the set of surviving search modes to yield the minimum excessive RD-cost caused by the restriction. Based on these sets, we implement a fast mode decision algorithm for H.264 Scalable Extension (SE). Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is superior in the sense of the RD-performance to the conventional mode restriction method which is based on the conditional probabilities of the best modes.

Evaluation of Near-future Drought Risk Assessment using Weather Generation (일기생성기를 통한 미래 가뭄위험도 산정)

  • Sur, Chanyang;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.89-89
    • /
    • 2016
  • 전 세계적으로 발생하는 기후변화로 인해 홍수, 가뭄 등과 같은 자연재해의 빈도가 높아지고 있다. 이러한 자연재해는 사회 경제적으로도 많은 피해를 유발하고 있으며, 특히 물과 관련한 자연재해는 인류의 생존과 직결되는 문제가 된다. 이중에서도 가뭄과 관련한 연구는 진행 속도가 느리고, 가뭄의 진원지나 그 경로를 파악하기 어려운 문제로 인하여 다른 연구와 비교하였을 때 상대적으로 미흡하게 진행되어 왔다. 이러한 문제점 때문에 여타의 다른 자연재해에 비해 가뭄에 대한 예측 및 대책 마련 또한 쉽지 않은 실정이다. 이에 몬테카를로 모의를 통해 미래에 발생할 수 있는 다양한 시나리오를 도출하는 확률론적 접근을 통해 좀 더 효율적이고 현실적인 대책 안을 마련할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목표는 기존 강우생성기와 증발산생성기를 결합한 일기생성기를 개발하고 이를 기후변화 시나리오에 적용하여 미래의 가뭄위험지수를 산출하는 것이다. 산출된 결과를 토대로 우리나라 전역에 대하여 준 실시간으로 갱신되는 미래가뭄위험도의 지도를 제작할 수 있다. 본 연구의 차별성은 첫 번째로 추계론적 접근을 통해 현재의 가뭄상태에 근거한 미래 가뭄에 대한 위험도를 예측할 수 있음을 들 수 있으며, 두 번째로는 지표해석모형을 활용하여 가뭄을 해석하기 때문에 유역 전반에 걸친 토양수분 뿐 만 아니라 국내 주요 댐 상류의 저수지 유입량의 불확실성을 정량화 할 수 있으며, 이는 기후변화에 따른 수자원 장기계획의 수립 및 의사결정에 있어 실용적인 정보를 제공할 수 있다.

  • PDF