• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상권 폐업률

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An Analysis of Spatial Changes in Commercial Districts using Survival-Exit Dynamics of Commercial Businesses in Seoul, Korea (사업체의 생존·폐업 기간을 활용한 서울시 상업공간의 변화분석)

  • Choi, Eunjun;Cheon, SangHyun;Lee, Sugie
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2021
  • This study examines changes in commercial space in Seoul from 1999 to 2016 by investigating operating periods of commercial businesses. This study finds that the characteristics of spatial changes in commercial districts are classified by the following two major points. First, the traditional CBD and Yeongdeung-po commercial districts show that both ages (survival duration) of operating commercial businesses and operating periods of market-exit businesses have changed to become longer than the average values of the two business types in Seoul. In contrast, the Gangnam and the Mapo commercial districts show that the operating periods of survived and closed commercial businesses have changed to become shorter over time. The difference suggests that survival-exit relations of businesses are closely related to the characteristics of each commercial district. In addition, this study shows that each commercial district has experienced dynamic changes in the intensity of commercial activities and the hierarchy of commercial space. Finally, this study indicates that public policies for commercial space should consider survival-exit dynamics of commercial activities in commercial districts.

Predicting Changes in Restaurant Business District by Administrative Districts in Seoul using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 서울시 행정동별 외식업종 상권 변화 예측)

  • Jiyeon Kim;Sumin Oh;Minseo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.459-463
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    • 2024
  • Frequent closures among self-employed individuals lead to national economic losses. Given the high closure rates in the restaurant industry, predicting changes in this sector is crucial for business survival. While research on factors affecting restaurant industry survival is active, studies predicting commercial district changes are lacking. Thus, this study focuses on forecasting such alterations, designing a deep learning model for Seoul's administrative district commercial district changes. It collects 2023 and 2022 second-quarter variables related to these changes, converting yearly fluctuations into percentages for augmentation. The proposed deep learning model aims to predict commercial district changes. Future policies, considering this study, could support restaurant industry growth and economic development.

A study on the change in the business closure rate before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 using survival analysis - Focused on Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu (코로나19 발생 전후 상권 생존율 변화 분석 - 서울 강남구와 대구 수성구를 중심으로)

  • Park, Jinbaek;Kim, Minseop
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.121-126
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the survival rate of commercial districts before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 by analyzing Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu as independent regions, although the background and distribution of commercial districts are similar. In the basic analysis, the size of the commercial districts was much larger in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, but it was confirmed that the distribution by industry was similar. In both regions, there were more openings than closings before the outbreak of COVID-19 in common, but as the COVID-19 outbreak occurred, the closure ratio of businesses centered on face-to-face services increased significantly. As a result of the survival analysis, it was analyzed that most industries were indifferent to the risk of closure of private institutes before Corona 19, but after the outbreak of Corona 19, it was confirmed that the risk of closure of private institutes increased, especially in Daegu, which was the initial spread of Corona 19. As a result of comparing the survival rate between regions, it was analyzed that the risk of business closure in Gangnam-gu increased relatively after the outbreak of Corona 19, confirming that the contraction in the commercial area of Seoul with a large floating population was greater.

Analysis of small business start-up and closure before and after COVID-19 pandemic by using big data (빅데이터를 활용한 코로나 팬데믹 전후의 소상공인 창업 및 폐업 분석)

  • Song, Seok-Chan;Choi, Hyun-Ah;Woo, Sung-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.539-541
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    • 2022
  • Due to the prolonged covid-19 pandemic, the rate of closure of the self-employed is rapidly increasing, and the economic damage is increasing. In this study, we provide various information such as the degree of overcrowding by region and industry through the analysis of business districts in Chungcheongbuk-do due to the outbreak of covid-19, and analyze the start-up environment by using public data to help start-up success and business stability. It provided support for self-employed people to use as basic data when starting a business.

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Study on the effect of small and medium-sized businesses being selected as suitable business types, on the franchise industry (중소기업적합업종선정이 프랜차이즈산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chang-Dong;Shin, Geon-Chel;Jang, Jae Nam
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2012
  • The conflict between major corporations and small and medium-sized businesses is being aggravated, the trickle down effect is not working properly, and, as the controversy surrounding the effectiveness of the business limiting system continues to swirl, the plan proposed to protect the business domain of small and medium-sized businesses, resolve polarization between these businesses and large corporations, and protect small family run stores is the suitable business type designation system for small and medium-sized businesses. The current status of carrying out this system of selecting suitable business types among small and medium-sized businesses involves receiving applications for 234 items among the suitable business types and items from small and medium-sized businesses in manufacturing, and then selecting the items of the consultative group by analyzing and investigating the actual conditions. Suitable business type designation in the service industry will involve designation with priority on business types that are experiencing social conflict. Three major classifications of the service industry, related to the livelihood of small and medium-sized businesses, will be first designated, and subsequently this will be expanded sequentially. However, there is the concern that when designated as a suitable business type or item, this will hinder the growth motive for small to medium-sized businesses, and designation all cause decrease in consumer welfare. Also it is highly likely that it will operate as a prior regulation, cause side-effects by limiting competition systematically, and also be in violation against the main regulations of the FTA system. Moreover, it is pointed out that the system does not sufficiently reflect reverse discrimination factor against large corporations. Because conflict between small to medium sized businesses and large corporations results from the expansion of corporations to the service industry, which is unrelated to their key industry, it is necessary to introduce an advanced contract method like a master franchise or local franchise system and to develop local small to medium sized businesses through a franchise system to protect these businesses and dealers. However, this method may have an effect that contributes to stronger competitiveness of small to medium sized franchise businesses by advancing their competitiveness and operational methods a step further, but also has many negative aspects. First, as revealed by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, the franchise industry is contributing to the strengthening of competitiveness through the economy of scale by organizing existing individual proprietors and increasing the success rate of new businesses. It is also revealed to be a response measure by the government to stabilize the economy of ordinary people and is emphasized as a 'useful way' to revitalize the service industry and improve the competitiveness of individual proprietors, and has been involved in contributions to creating jobs and expanding the domestic market by providing various services to consumers. From this viewpoint, franchises fit the purpose of the suitable business type system and is not something that is against it. Second, designation as a suitable business type may decrease investment for overseas expansion, R&D, and food safety, as well negatively affect the expansion of overseas corporations that have entered the domestic market, due to the contraction and low morale of large domestic franchise corporations that have competitiveness internationally. Also because domestic franchise businesses are hard pressed to secure competitiveness with multinational overseas franchise corporations that are operating in Korea, the system may cause difficulty for domestic franchise businesses in securing international competitiveness and also may result in reverse discrimination against these overseas franchise corporations. Third, the designation of suitable business type and item can limit the opportunity of selection for consumers who have up to now used those products and can cause a negative effect that reduces consumer welfare. Also, because there is the possibility that the range of consumer selection may be reduced when a few small to medium size businesses monopolize the market, by causing reverse discrimination between these businesses, the role of determining the utility of products must be left ot the consumer not the government. Lastly, it is desirable that this is carried out with the supplementation of deficient parts in the future, because fair trade is already secured with the enforcement of the franchise trade law and the best trade standard of the Fair Trade Commission. Overlapping regulations by the suitable business type designation is an excessive restriction in the franchise industry. Now, it is necessary to establish in the domestic franchise industry an environment where a global franchise corporation, which spreads Korean culture around the world, is capable of growing, and the active support by the government is needed. Therefore, systems that do not consider the process or background of the growth of franchise businesses and harm these businesses for the sole reason of them being large corporations must be removed. The inhibition of growth to franchise enterprises may decrease the sales of franchise stores, in some cases even bankrupt them, as well as cause other problems. Therefore the suitable business type system should not hinder large corporations, and as both small dealers and small to medium size businesses both aim at improving competitiveness and combined growth, large corporations, small dealers and small to medium sized businesses, based on their mutual cooperation, should not include franchise corporations that continue business relations with them in this system.

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