• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.06a
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• pp.1043-1048
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• 2007

산업경기예측을 위한 의사결정지원시스템은 예측관련 정보의 지식표현뿐 아니라 예측 프로세스를 공식화하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구는 예측 정보들과 함께 예측 프로세스를 체계적으로 구축하기 위해 예측 온톨로지 개발을 위한 방법론을 제시한다. 예측 정보들에 대한 지식표현을 위해서 의미적 지식기반인 온톨로지를 구축하고, 예측 프로세스의 절차적 표현을 위해서는 프로세스 구성요소에 기반한 온톨로지 개발방법을 제안하여 예측 프로세스를 체계적으로 표현한다. 이를 국내의 대표적인 산업이며 경기변동이 심한 반도체 산업에 적용하여 경기예측에 대한 온톨로지를 구축한다. 완성된 온톨로지는, 실제로 예측을 계획하고 구축하고 표현하기 위한, 미래 의사결정지원시스템을 설계하기 위한 주요 구성요인으로 제공될 수 있을 것이다.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.1-47
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• 2020

This paper surveys research since the 1990s on the ability of the yield spread and its components (i.e., expectation spread and term premium components) for future economic activity, and also conducts an empirical analysis of their forecasting ability using the yield data of Korean government bonds. This paper's survey, particularly for the US, shows that the yield spread has significant predictive power for some macroeconomic variables, but since the mid-1980s, its predictive power seems to have declined, possibly due to stronger inflation targeting. Next, this paper's empirical analysis using Korean data indicates that the yield spread, and the term premium component in particular, has significant predictive power for industrial production (IP) growth, consumer price index growth, and the IP gap. An out-of-sample analysis shows that the prediction equations are unstable over time, and that in predicting IP growth, the yield spread decomposition makes a significant contribution to the prediction of IP growth.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.93-109
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• 2019

This study applied the statistically significant factors to the short-run model in the existing nonlinear long-run equilibrium relation analysis for the forecasting of maritime economy using the mixed cycle model. The most common univariate AR(1) model and out-of-sample forecasting are compared with the root mean squared forecasting error from the mixed-frequency model, and the prediction power of the mixed-frequency approach is confirmed to be better than the AR(1) model. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that the new approach of high-level mixed frequency model is a useful for forecasting marine industry. It is consistent that the inclusion of more information, such as higher frequency, in the analysis of long-run equilibrium framework is likely to improve the forecasting power of short-run models in multivariate time series analysis.

• Journal of Korean Electronics
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.8-47
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• 1998

본회는 지난 12월 3일 라마다르네상스 호텔에서 1998년도의 경기전망과 수요 예측을 통해 기업으로 하여금 합리적인 생산계획 수립 등 경영합리화를 도모케하고 효과적인 전자산업 진흥정책을 강구하는데 도움을 주고자 업계, 학계, 관련기관 등 200여명이 참석한 가운데 세미나를 개최하였다. 본고는 이날 세미나의 각 부문별 발표내용 중 가전ㆍ컴퓨터ㆍ부품ㆍ통신ㆍ반도체 등 전자산업의 경기전망의 내용을 게재한 것이다.

• 정보화사회
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• s.184
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• pp.14-27
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• 2007

'오늘보다 더 나은 내일' 새해를 맞는 모든 이들의 바람이다. IT업계의 바람도 이와 크게 다르지 않다. 다행스러운 것은 올해가 작년보다 조금 나을 것 같다는 예측들이 많다는 것이다. '정보화사회'가 신년을 맞아 산업 부문별로 경기를 전망한 결과, 유선전화 시장을 제외하고는 대부분의 산업이 역동적으로 움직일 것으로 예상됐다. 모바일 서비스 시장은 3G중심으로 급속히 재편될 것으로 예상됐으며, 휴대폰 시장은 전년 대비 13% 성장할 것으로 전망됐다. IT서비스관리 시장도 작년 대비 50% 이상 급성장 할 것으로 전망됐으며, SI 시장도 비교적 호재가 많을 것으로 예상됐다. 유선, 초고속 인터넷, 모바일, SI, 네트워크, 보안, HW, SW 등 11개 산업분야의 2007년 시장전망을 분석 정리했다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.214-223
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to present a new industrial land demand prediction method that can consider external economic factors. The analysis model used ARIMA-X, which can consider exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are composed of macroeconomic variable, Business Survey Index, and Composite Economic Index variables to reflect the economic and industrial structure. And, among the exogenous variables, only variables that precede the supply of industrial land are used for prediction. Variables with precedence in the supply of industrial land were found to be import, private and government consumption expenditure, total capital formation, economic sentiment index, producer's shipment index, machinery for domestic demand and composite leading index. As a result of estimating the ARIMA-X model using these variables, the ARIMA-X(1,1,0) model including only the import was found to be statistically significant. The industrial land demand forecast predicted the industrial land from 2021 to 2030 by reflecting the scenario of change in import. As a result, the future demand for industrial land was predicted to increase by 1.91% annually to 1,030.79 km². As a result of comparing these results with the existing exponential smoothing method, the results of this study were found to be more suitable than the existing models. It is expected to b available as a new industrial land forecasting model.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.315-322
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• 2007

신호교차로 교통사고는 90년대 이후 도시가 발달하고 산업이 고도화됨에 따라 교통 혼잡 문제와 함께 심각한 사회문제로 대두되고 있다. 특히 신호교차로의 교통사고는 인적요인, 차량요인, 환경적 요인 등이 복합적으로 작용하여 발생하는데, 교통량의 집중과 도로의 기하구조, 운전자 과실 등이 교통사고의 주요 인자로 작용하고 있다. 본 연구에서 교통사고 예측모형을 개발하기 위해서 2003년부터 2006년도까지 실제 경기도의 신호교차로에서 발생한 교통사고자료를 기초로 하였다. 구체적으로는 시내가 아닌 지방부 성격을 지닌 일반국도를 대상으로 하였다. 지방부 일반국도의 신호교차로 교통사고 분석에 단순통계분석과 다중회귀분석을 사용하였다. 사고와 관계가 높은 신호주기, 방향별 접근 교통량, 회전교통량 둥과 같은 도로, 교통, 운영조건들로 변수를 정하여 교통사고 예측모형을 도출하였다. 본 연구에서는 도로조건, 교통조건, 운영조건들과 사고와의 관계를 이용하여 경기도 일반국도의 신호교차로 교통사고예측모형을 개발하였고, 이는 지방부 성격을 지닌 교차로에 적용이 가능하다고 판단된다.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.77-114
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• 2003

Analyses of the special data sets constructed from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics reveal that, compared with an annual wage measure, survey week wages are significantly counter-cyclically biased due to selecting workers with strong labor market attachment. We also find that survey week wages are more counter-cyclically biased in high-wage industries than in low-wage industries, that is, inter-industry gaps of survey week wages are counter-cyclically biased. Unlike existing longitudinal studies, the current study concludes that real wages are much more procyclical in high-wage industries than in low-wage industries, which is attributed to our adoption of annual wages that is less subject to the selectivity bias. Our finding is consistent with the empirical regularity that real wages are much more procyclical for men than for women, as men are overrepresented in industries with greater real wage procyclicalities. Overall, current results do not support the predictions of segmented labor market theories for the cyclicality of real wages.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.54-62
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• 2012

Currently, construction engineering industry of high value and rapid growing has been viewed as a future oriented industry. Thus, compared to other industries, its analysis system for business trend seems insufficient. This research has developed a business survey index model targeted for construction engineering industries, and business trends for 4/4 quarter of 2011 as well as 1/4 quarter of 2012 were surveyed as important traits were analyzed. Business Survey Index of Construction Engineering has been constructed in form of an index in order to accurately judge different economic states of the industry such as funding areas, human resources, payability, ordering scale, status of domestic and foreign markets, Difficulties in Management, and improvements in policies. In the future, CEBSI will not only be applied on the construction engineering industry, but it will also be used as the economic state of all construction industries as well as the prospect data. Thus, it will be utilized as basic resources that can establish systematic and accurate policies.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.179-186
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• 2022

This study aims to develop a predictive model to suggest a used sales price to sellers and buyers when trading used tablet PCs. For model development, we analyzed the real used tablet PC transaction data and additionally collected detailed product information. We developed several predictive models and selected the best predictive model among them. Specifically, we considered a multiple linear regression model using the used sales price as a dependent variable and other variables in the integrated data as independent variables, a multiple linear regression model including interactions, and the models from stepwise variable selection in each model. The model with the best predictive performance was finally selected through cross-validation. Through this study, we can predict the sales price of used tablet PCs and suggest appropriate used sales prices to sellers and buyers.