• Title/Summary/Keyword: 산사태 예측

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An Evaluation of Damage Scale on the Local Governments in Gangwon-do using Landslide Risk Maps (산사태 위험지도를 이용한 강원도 지자체의 피해규모 산정)

  • Yang, In Tae;Park, Jae Kook;Park, Kheun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2014
  • This study predicted damage areas due to landslides in Gangwon Province and estimated the scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests on the local government level. By using old research findings to predict landslides, the study established techniques to make maps for landslide vulnerability, occurrence possibility, and risk. The scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests was estimated at the local government level by making a landslide risk map for 100mm, 200mm, and 300mm of accumulated rainfall. The scale of damage to roads, buildings, and forests was estimated to be greatest in Hongcheon-gun, Jeongseon-gun, and Hongcheon-gun, respectively, in case of 100mm~200mm accumulated rainfall, in Chuncheon City, Pyeongchang-gun, and Hongcheon-gun, respectively, in case of 200mm~300mm accumulated rainfall, and in Hongcheon-gun in case of 300mm accumulated rainfall or more. Those estimation results of scale of damage by landslides at the local government level will help to set priorities in landslide prevention and provide basic data for budget decisions.

Development of Investigation and Analysis Technique to Landslides and Its Application (산사태 조사.해석 기법의 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Kyeong-Su;Song, Young-Suk;Chae, Byung-Gon;Cho, Yong-Chan;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2008
  • Landslide researches are divided to a method of interrelationship for various factors, method of predicting landslide possibility, and method of estimating landslide risk which are occurring landslides in the natural slope. Most of landslides occurred in natural slope are caused by a heavy rainfall in summer season. Weathered soil layer located in upper side of rock mass was occurred. As well as, they are announced to have an influence to geometry, geology, soil characteristics, and precipitation in the natural slope. In order to investigate and interpret the variety of landslides from field investigation to risk analysis, landslide analysis process due to geotechnical and geological opinions are systematically demanded. In this research, the study area is located in Macheon area, Gyeongsangnam-do and performed the landslide investigation. From the results of landslide investigation and analysis, optimized standard model based on natural landslide is proposed to high technical method of landslide investigation and interpretation.

Rainfall Threshold (ID curve) for Landslide Initiation and Prediction Considering Antecedent Rainfall (선행강우를 고려한 산사태 유발 강우기준(ID curve) 분석)

  • Hong, Moon-Hyun;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Jung, Gyung-Ja;Jeong, Sang-Seom
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to suggest a landslide triggering rainfall threshold (ID curve) for landslide prediction by considering the effect of antecedent rainfall. 202 rainfall data including domestic landslide and rainfall records were used in this study. In order to consider the effect of antecedent rainfall, rainfall data were analyzed by changing Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) and IETD based ID curve were presented by regression analysis. Compared to the findings of the previous studies, the presented ID curve has a tendency to predict the landslides occurring at a relatively low rainfall intensity. It is shown that the proposed ID curve is appropriate and realistic for predicting landslides through the validation of proposed ID curve using records of landslides in 2014. Based on this analysis, it is found that the longer IETD, the greater the effect of antecedent rainfall, and the steeper the gradient of ID curve. It is also found that the rainfall threshold (intensity) is higher for the short period rainfall and lower for the long period rainfall.

A Random Walk Model for Estimating Debris Flow Damage Range (랜덤워크 모델을 이용한 토석류 산사태 피해범위 산정기법 제안)

  • Young-Suk Song;Min-Sun Lee
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.201-211
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated the damage range of the debris flow to predict the amount of collapsed soil in a landslide event. The height of the collapsed slope and the distance traveled by the collapsed soil were used to predict the total trajectory distance using a random walk model. Debris flow trajectory probabilities were calculated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and were used to calculate the damage range as measured from the landslide scar to its toe. Compiled information on debris flows that occurred in the Cheonwangbong area of Mt. Jirisan was used to test the accuracy of the proposed random walk model in estimating the damage range of debris flow. Results of the comparison reveal that the proposed model shows reasonable accuracy in estimating the damage range of debris flow and that using 10 m × 10 m cells allows the damage range to be reproduced with satisfactory precision.

Analysis of the Effect of Soil Depth on Landslide Risk Assessment (산사태 조사를 통한 토층심도가 산사태 발생 위험성에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Man-Il;Kim, Namgyun;Kwak, Jaehwan;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to empirically and statistically predict soil depths across areas affected by landslides. Using soil depth measurements from a landslide area in Korea, two sets of soil depths are calculated using a Z-model based on terrain elevation and a probabilistic statistical model. Both sets of calculation results are applied to derive landslide risk using the saturated infiltration depth ratio of the soil layer. This facilitates analysis of the infiltration of rainfall into soil layers for a rainfall event. In comparison with the probabilistic statistical model, the Z-model yields soil depths that are closer to measured values in the study area. Landslide risk assessment in the study area based on soil depth predictions from the two models shows that the percentage of first-grade landslide risk assessed using soil depths from the probabilistic statistical model is 2.5 times that calculated using soil depths from the Z-model. This shows that soil depths directly affect landslide risk assessment; therefore, the acquisition and application of local soil depth data are crucial to landslide risk analysis.

Predicting Landslide Damaged Area According to Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 산사태 피해면적 변화 예측)

  • Song Eu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.376-386
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    • 2023
  • Due to climate changes, landslide hazards in the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea) continuously increase. To establish the effective landslide mitigation strategies, such as erosion control works, landslide hazard estimation in the long-term perspective should be proceeded considering the influence of climate changes. In this study, we examined the change in landslide-damaged areas in South Korea responding to climate change scenarios using the multivariate regression method. Data on landslide-damaged areas and rainfall from 1981-2010 were used as a training dataset. Sev en indices were deriv ed from rainfall data as the model's input data, corresponding to rainfall indices provided from two SSP scenarios for South Korea: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Prior to the multivariate regression analysis, we conducted the VIF test and the dimension analysis of regression model using PCA. Based on the result of PCA, we developed a regression model for landslide damaged area estimation with two principal components, which cov ered about 93% of total v ariance. With climate change scenarios, we simulated landslide-damaged areas in 2030-2100 using the regression model. As a result, the landslide-damaged area will be enlarged more than the double of current annual mean landslide damaged area of 1981-2010; It infers that landslide mitigation strategies should be reinforced considering the future climate condition.

A study on the Analysis of Land Slide Using Aerial Photogrammetry (항공사진측량에 의한 산사태의 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 강인준
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 1991
  • On hill slope, apartment, housing, and school construction may be many potential problems and damagemay be involved in construction. Model sites for landslides are two apartment and high school areas in Pusan, 1991. This paper is described the landslides forecasting in photointerpretation of aerial photographs.

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A Study on Analysis of Landslide Disaster Area using Cellular Automata: An Application to Umyeonsan, Seocho-Gu, Seoul, Korea (셀룰러 오토마타를 이용한 산사태 재난지역 분석에 관한 연구 - 서울특별시 서초구 우면산을 대상으로-)

  • Yoon, Dong-Hyeon;Koh, Jun-Hwan
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2012
  • South Korea has many landslides caused by heavy rains during summer time recently and the landslides continue to cause damages in many places. These landslides occur repeatedly each year, and the frequency of landslides is expected to increase in the coming future due to dramatic global climate change. In Korea, 81.5% of the population is living in urban areas and about 1,055 million people are living in Seoul. In 2011, the landslide that occurred in Seocho-dong killed 18 people and about 9% of Seoul's area is under the same land conditions as Seocho-dong. Even the size of landslide occurred in a city is small, but it is more likely to cause a big disaster because of a greater population density in the city. So far, the effort has been made to identify landslide vulnerability and causes, but now, the new dem and arises for the prediction study about the areal extent of disaster area in case of landslides. In this study, the diffusion model of the landslide disaster area was established based on Cellular Automata(CA) to analyze the physical diffusion forms of landslide. This study compared the accuracy with the Seocho-dong landslide case, which occurred in July 2011, applying the SCIDDICA model and the CAESAR model. The SCIDDICA model involves the following variables, such as the movement rules and the topographical obstacles, and the CAESAR model is also applied to this process to simulate the changes of deposition and erosion.

Landslide Susceptibility Analysis and Vertification using Artificial Neural Network in the Kangneung Area (인공신경망을 이용한 강릉지역 산사태 취약성 분석 및 검증)

  • Lee, Sa-Ro;Lee, Myeong-Jin;Won, Jung-Seon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to make and validate landslide susceptibility map using artificial neural network and GIS in Kangneung area. For this, topography, soil, forest, geology and land cover data sets were constructed as a spatial database in GIS. From the database, slope, aspect, curvature, water system, topographic type, soil texture, soil material, soil drainage, soil effective thickness, wood type, wood age, wood diameter, forest density, lithology, land cover, and lineament were used as the landslide occurrence factors. The weight of the each factor was calculated, and applied to make landslide susceptibility maps using artificial neural network. Then the maps were validated using rate curve method which can predict qualitatively the landslide occurrence. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to reduce associated hazards, and to plan land use and construction as basic data.

The Selection of Landslide Risk Area Using AHP and Geomorphic Element (지형요소와 AHP를 활용한 산사태취약지역 선정)

  • Min, Byung Keun;Kang, In Joon;Park, Dong Hyun;Kim, Byung Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.6_1
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    • pp.431-437
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    • 2013
  • Landslides are caused by earthquakes or heavy rains. Recently the incidence of landslides has been increased. However, it is impossible to predict the occurrence of landslide exactly. The purpose of this research is that subdivide the classes of elements in the landslide management system by using spatial analysis technique and AHP method. The existing landslide management system is only comprised of weighted value the slope elements without weighted value about the slop direction elements. For the accuracy improvement in landslide occurrence point, weighted value about the slope direction should be considered. This research is focused on segmentation in slope direction three categories. If the direction of landslide does not affect the structure, I do not think the subject is worth considerating. Based on these results will discuss the improvements in Landslides management systems. Analysis results, segmentation on the slope and the slope direction are needed. Segmented categories about topography elements will be increase the accuracy of landslides management system. Also, since topography of the elements is only considered, segmentation of different elements is needed.