• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사업비 예측모델

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Prediction of Penetration Rate of Sheet Pile Using Modified Ramberg-Osgood Model (수정 Ramberg-Osgood 모델을 이용한 널말뚝의 관입속도 예측)

  • Lee, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Zu-Cheol;Kim, Jeong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2010
  • Dynamic soil resistances were simulated by modified Ramberg-Osgood model in order to predict penetration rate of sheet pile installed by vibratory pile driver. Various factors which characterize modified Ramberg-Osgood model were determined considering the shapes of dynamic soil resistance curves obtained from field test and standard penetration value (N value) was used as parameter that relates field test results to the suggested model. Penetration rates calculated by analytical model were smaller than those of field test and penetration times were vice versa. Therefore, predicted penetration rate and penetration time by analytical model are more conservative than those of filed test.

A Study on the Maintenance Expenses of the Public Rental Rousing (공공임대주택 수선비 지출 실태에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Hyun-Kyu;Han, Choong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.6 s.28
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2005
  • Public rental housing is constructed, owned, and managed by the public sector. The public institution for the public rental housing controls the whole building life cycle from the construction to the demolition. The construction company for the house built for sale is strongly interested in the cost for the initial investment, while the public institution is more focused on the maintenance cost for the preservation of the buildings Nevertheless, the maintenance cost of the public rental housing has been only managed as the accounting factor without the systemic research and analysis on the actual condition. This paper shows how expenses are related to the degree of obsolescence and presents the differences of the maintenance costs by the housing area and expenditure trends (vs time) of the maintenance costs, through analyzing time series data of public rental housing maintenance cost. Further, this paper helps understanding the causes of the differences of the maintenance costs by housing areas and characteristics of the expenditure trends. After all, this paper contributes to the improvement of the reliability and the practicality for the Life Cycle Cost modeling and the maintenance cost estimating.

A Study on Prediction Model Conformity of Line Source in Urban Area (도시지역에서의 선오염원 예측모델 적합성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Hong;Park, Sun hwan;Chang, Yoon young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.511-521
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    • 2018
  • Despite the limitations and difficulty in the application of CALINE3 model for air dispersion prediction of roads and tunnels construction businesses in South Korea, the model is being used in all roads construction projects. This study compared the predicted values of CALINE3 and AERMOD model that is suggested by the US EPA, to the values of GRAL model, a Lagrangian particle tracking model developed in Europe, by applying the models to the existing roads of the urban areas. The result showed low relevance to the actual measurement value in the case of CALINE3 model, thus displaying a low trusted value when applying to the urban areas. In the case of using AERMOD model, the predicted values were overly expressed compared to the actual measurement value, thus leading to the need of adding a No2 conversion method to the model in the future. In the case of GRAL model, a Lagrangian particle tracking model, the relevance between the actual and predicted values were high as the model considers the surrounding topography and the buildings all together, thus confirming that the model can be used for air dispersion prediction of the roads in the urban areas. Lastly, the result of this study testing the air prediction models in Jeongneung Measuring Station points that it is necessary for the future studies to expand the testing areas and test the validity of the models continuously.

A Study on the Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast(HQPF) based on Machine Learning for Rainfall Impact Forecasting (호우 영향예보를 위한 머신러닝 기반의 수문학적 정량강우예측(HQPF) 연구)

  • Choo, Kyung-Su;Shin, Yoon-Hu;Kim, Sung-Min;Jee, Yongkeun;Lee, Young-Mi;Kang, Dong-Ho;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.63-63
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    • 2022
  • 기상 예보자료는 발생 가능한 재난의 예방 및 대비 차원에서 매우 중요한 자료로 활용되고 있다. 우리나라 기상청에서는 동네예보를 통해 5km 공간해상도의 1시간 간격 초단기예보와, 6시간 간격 정량강우예보(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, QPF)의 단기예보 정보를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 예보자료는 강우량의 시·공간변화가 큰 집중호우와 같은 기상자료를 활용한 수문학적인 해석에는 한계가 있다. 예보자료를 수문학에 활용하기 위한 시·공간적 해상도 개선뿐만 아니라 방대한 기상 및 기후 자료의 예측성능을 개선하기 위한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상청이 제공하는 지역 앙상블 예측 시스템(Local ENsemble prediction System, LENS)와 종관기상관측시스템(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측시스템(AWS) 관측 데이터 및 동네예보에 기계학습 방법을 적용하여 수문학적 정량적 강수량 예측(Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, HQPF) 정보를 생산하였다. 전처리 과정을 통해 모든 데이터의 시간해상도와 공간해상도를 동일한 해상도로 변환하였으며, 예측 변수의 인자 분석을 통해 기계학습의 예측 변수를 도출하였다. 기계학습 방법으로는 처리속도와 확장성을 고려하여 XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting) 방식을 적용하였으며, 집중호우에서의 예측정확도를 높이기 위해 확률매칭(PM) 방식을 적용하였다. 생산된 HQPF의 성능을 평가하기 위해 2020년에 발생한 14건의 호우 사상을 대상으로 태풍형과 비태풍형으로 구분하여 검증을 수행하였다.

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Current Situation and Problems in Applying Groundwater Flow Models to EIAs in Korea (지하수환경영향예측을 위한 지하수모델의 적용현황 및 문제점: 환경영향평가서와 먹는샘물환경영향조사서를 중심으로)

  • 김강주
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 1999
  • This work was initiated to investigate current situation and problems in applying groundwater-related models for various kinds of environmental impact assessment in Korea. and therefore. to enhance appropriate application in the future. This study was carried out with 544 and 16 documents of EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment. Law of Environmental Impact Assessment) and Mineral-Water EIA (“the environmental impact investigation for mineral water developments”; Law of Drinking Water Management). respectively. It was revealed that there were considerably many cases which may cause serious impacts on subsurface environments in EIA. However. none applied groundwater models. Generally, the influences on subsurface system were underestimated or even ignored in EIA. For Mineral-Water EIA. groundwater models wert applied. in general. But. numerous and serious problems were noted: limited number of calibration parameters and parameter types. setting boundary conditions without adequate bases. recharge rates several times higher than precipitation rates. numerically unstable results. etc. Such kinds of misusages seem to be caused by modelers larking in professional knowledges. To solve the problems revealed from this study. more systematic re-education programs are suggested.

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A Study on a GIS ISP Model for Local Governments to Overcome the Problems in a Transition Period (지자체 GIS의 과도기적 문제점 극복을 위한 GIS 정보화 전략계획(ISP) 수립모델 연구)

  • 고광철;김도훈;김은형
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2004.03a
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    • pp.415-421
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    • 2004
  • 막대한 예산을 투입하여 추진하고 있는 지자체 GIS사업은 기술의 발전에 비해 제도, 교육, 사용자의 마인드, 유지관리 활동, 향후 사업 구상 등에서 상대적인 빈곤을 경험하고 있는 것이 사실이다. 이렇듯 신기술이 도입됨에 따라 다양한 제반 여건들이 동반적으로 성숙하지 못함으로 인해 발생하는 현상을 과도기적 현상1)으로 진단하고 있다. 이미 다양한 분야에서 GIS를 도입한 지자체에서는 이러한 과도기적 현상을 극복하기 위해 상당한 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 새롭게 GIS를 도입하고자 하는 지자체에서도 타 지자체에서 모니터링을 통해 간접적으로 과도기적 현상을 경험함으로 인해 효과적인 사업 추진을 구상하는데 상당한 어려움을 겪고 있는 것이 현실이다. 또한 지자체의 경우 중앙정부에서 추진하고 있는 다양한 사업에 영향을 받을 수밖에 없고, 현재의 GIS 사업의 추세가 단순한 공간정보 중심의 사업이 아닌 다양한 속성정보와의 연계를 모색하고 있다는 점에서 지자체 GIS정보화의 방향은 예전과는 사뭇 다른 양상을 간파해 야 하는 현실에 놓여 있다. 이와 같은 지자체 GIS의 과도기적 현상을 극복하기 위해서는 정보기술의 빠른 변화속도와 외부환경의 극심한 환경변화의 상황에서 ‘보이는 것과 보이지 않는 것’의 관계를 진단하고, 변화에 대한 예측과 대비, 중요한 일과 급한 일을 구분한 총체적인 밑그림의 마련과 실행계획의 수립이 우선시 되어야 한다. 지자체 GIS의 문제 해결의 노력이 단숨에 바로 해결되는 것이 아니고, 또한 현재 추진된 사업을 기반으로 중복투자의 방지와 시너지 효과 극대화를 위한 투자의 노력이 장기간의 시간적 개념속에서 진행되어야 한다는 점에서 이를 이끌어줄 가이드가 필요한 것이다. 이러한 총체적인 지자체 GIS의 계획마련을 위해 건설교통부에서는 ‘국가지리정보구축 및 활용등에 관한 법률’상에 계획 수립의 항목을 명문화하고, 나아가 GIS정보화 전략계획 수립에 관한 지침작성을 위한 노력을 진행 중에 있다. 이러한 일련의 현실을 감안하여 지자체 GIS정보화 전략계획 수립을 체계적이고 실질적으로 수립할 수 있는 ‘지자체 GIS정보화 전략계획 수립모델’은 반드시 선행되어야 할 사항임에 분명하다. 지자체 GIS정보화 전략계획 수립 모델은 지자체 GIS정보화 전략계획 수립의 효과로 하고 있으며, 형식적 측면에서는 GIS특성을 반영한 전략계획 수립의 방법론적 측면을 중심으로 구성된다. 이러한 과정을 거처 실제 지자체 GIS정보화 전략계획을 수립하는데 필요한 9단계를 설정하고 각각의 단계에 대한 중심활동을 바탕으로 지자체에서 실제 전략계획 수립에 필요한 지침을 작성하는 것으로 구성되어 있다.

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A Study on Railway Transportation Business Cost Estimation & Decision Supporting Methods using Simulation Data (시뮬레이션을 활용한 철도교통사업 비용 추산 및 의사결정 지원 방법 연구)

  • Chang, Suk;Nam, Do Woo;Sim, Jeong Hwan;Kim, Dong Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2020
  • In determining the feasibility of planning and launching railway transportation projects, various decision-making processes are essentially required. LCC(Life Cycle Cost) value including total construction cost and operation cost is estimated in approximation Model with rough guideline. In this study, modeling and simulation-based analysis method is proposed to support the decision making process of railroad transportation and derivation of LCC. Firstly, cost analysis model was constructed by collecting various existing rail transportation business data to enable analyze based on numerical data, and the result were analyzed by DOE(Design Of Experiments) and RSM (Response Surface Method) simulation. Professional commercial software tools were used for effective model construction and simulation. In order to verify the research results, the actual railroad transportation projects were selected, and the results of the analysis were compared.

Computation and Verification of Approximate Construction cost of Steel Box Girder Bridge by Using Case-Based Reasoning (사례기반추론을 이용한 강박스거더교의 개략공사비 산정 및 검증)

  • Jung, Min-Sun;Kyung, Kab-Soo;Jeon, Eun-Kyoung;Kwon, Soon-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.557-568
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    • 2011
  • To effectively come up with and secure a national budget, it is very important to estimate the reasonable construction cost of each step in public construction projects. In this study, the approximate construction cost of a steel box girder bridge in the early stages of the project, on which available information is limited, was proposed using case-based reasoning. In addition, construction cost estimation models were used for existing sample design models, and the accuracy of the estimation model for the presented cost was verified. The analysis results showed that the error rate was comparatively stable. Therefore, it is expected that construction cost estimation will be effectively suggested in the country's budget preparation.

Risk-based Profit Prediction Model for International Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 리스크 분석에 기초한 수익성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.635-647
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    • 2006
  • Korean construction companies first advanced to the international markets in 1960's and so far have brought more than 4,900 projects which account for 193 billion dollars approximately. With the large increase of national employment and income being followed by the achievement, Korea's construction industry has made an enormous contribution to the improvement of domestic economy for the last 40 years. However, recently the increased risk in international markets as well as the sharpening competition with foreign companies promising in terms of advanced technologies and low labor cost have been driving Korean construction away from the market shares. According to ENR (Engineering News Record, 1994~2003), it is revealed that 15.1% of top 225 global contractors are suffering from loss in international construction markets. This phenomenon is largely due to the highly uncertain characteristics of international projects, which are inherently exposed to various and complicated risky situations. Furthermore, especially for Korean construction companies, it is often the case that the failure in an international construction project cannot be offset by even a sufficient number of successful domestic achievements. Therefore, not only the selective screening among the nominated projects which have strong possibility of collapse but the systematic strategies for controlling potential risk factors are also considered indispensable in international construction portfolio management. The purpose of this study is to first analyze the causal relationships of the profit-influencing variables and the project success, and develop the profitability forecasting model in international construction projects.

An Economic Approach for Improvement of Radius for Hazarouds Road (위험도로 곡선반경 개선의 경제적 접근에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hyun;Yoon, Pan;Park, Je-Jin;Kim, Young-Woon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2003
  • The Government presented improvement plans such as "Traffic Accident Frequent Point" and "Hazardous Roads" to reduce traffic accidents on the increase after 1980s. In case of the hazardous roads, they are expressed by grades which are marked by geometric elements such as width, radius, grade. sight distance. and other environmental factors. As each business for improving roads goes by only focusing on improvement of geometric elements, excessive expense can be invested too much nowadays causing economical waste. Therefore, as improvement plans approached by economic access are needed, this paper shows the cost-effective improvement of the business to keep safety related to traffic accident and economical waste. The hazardous roads which authorized by Gwang-ju National Road Preservation Office of Construction and Transportation Ministry in 1995 for business for improvement of roads, were investigated before 1999. First of all, estimating traffic accident models are presented by using existed data statistically. The models help to maximize traffic accident decrease through control of the presented factor. Secondly, optimum construction cost of improvement is presented to prevent overcapitalization. However, this paper is limited because it was difficult to sort the data with various areas and to approach various ways.