• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사분위수

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Analysis of domestic water usage patterns in Chungcheong using historical data of domestic water usage and climate variables (생활용수 실적자료와 기후 변수를 활용한 충청권역 생활용수 이용량 패턴 분석)

  • Kim, Min Ji;Park, Sung Min;Lee, Kyungju;So, Byung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2024
  • Persistent droughts due to climate change will intensify water shortage problems in Korea. According to the 1st National Water Management Plan, the shortage of domestic and industrial waters is projected to be 0.07 billion m3/year under a 50-year drought event. A long-term prediction of water demand is essential for effectively responding to water shortage problems. Unlike industrial water, which has a relatively constant monthly usage, domestic water is analyzed on monthly basis due to apparent monthly usage patterns. We analyzed monthly water usage patterns using water usage data from 2017 to 2021 in Chungcheong, South Korea. The monthly water usage rate was calculated by dividing monthly water usage by annual water usage. We also calculated the water distribution rate considering correlations between water usage rate and climate variables. The division method that divided the monthly water usage rate by monthly average temperature resulted in the smallest absolute error. Using the division method with average temperature, we calculated the water distribution rates for the Chungcheong region. Then we predicted future water usage rates in the Chungcheong region by multiplying the average temperature of the SSP5-8.5 scenario and the water distribution rate. As a result, the average of the maximum water usage rate increased from 1.16 to 1.29 and the average of the minimum water usage rate decreased from 0.86 to 0.84, and the first quartile decreased from 0.95 to 0.93 and the third quartile increased from 1.04 to 1.06. Therefore, it is expected that the variability in monthly water usage rates will increase in the future.

Basin flood Discharge Characteristic According to AMC Condition (AMC 조건에 따른 유역 홍수유출 특성)

  • Yoo, Chulsang;Lee, Jiho
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.207-207
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 유역 특성의 판단에 적절한 호우사상을 선별하여 사용하는 것이 어느 정도 효과적인지를 평가하였다. 토양의 습윤 정도에 따른 유역의 특성을 반영하기 위해 AMC 조건을 고려하였으며, 유역의 집중시간 및 저류상수의 추정방법으로는 Nash 모형의 구조를 이용하는 방법을 적용하였다. 아울러 강우의 공간변동 정도를 파악하기 위해 변동계수를 이용하여 평가하였으며, 추정된 매개변수들의 대푯값 및 가능범위를 도시적으로 결정하였다. 이를 유역면적이 큰 충주댐 유역의 영춘 지점과 상대적으로 작은 평창강 방림 지점을 대상유역으로 선정하여, 다양한 호우사상에 대한 분석이 유역의 규모에 대비되어 수행될 수 있도록 하였다. 그 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 강우의 공간변동 정도를 변동계수로 평가한 결과 AMC-III 조건에서 강우강도의 공간적 변동폭이 작음을 확인하였다. 따라서 AMC-III 조건에서 유도한 유출특성이 단위도의 이론에 부합하는 것으로 판단된다. 아울러 AMC 조건에 따라 추정된 집중시간과 저류상수는 AMC-I보다 AMC-III 경우에서 상대적으로 변동폭도 작았으며, 선형저수지의 특성 역시 일관됨을 확인하였다. 특히, AMC-I 조건의 경우는 선행강우가 없는 상태에서의 호우사상들로서 일단 그 크기가 작을 가능성이 크다는 문제점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 AMC-I 조건의 호우사상 보다는 AMC-III 조건의 호우사상을 이용하는 게 보다 홍수 유출 해석에 유리하다고 판단된다. 추정된 매개변수의 대푯값과 그의 가능범위 결정에 앞서, AMC-III 조건에서 추정된 매개변수들이 군집해 있는 구간을 설정한 후, 이를 벗어나는 매개변수를 제외하였다. 다음으로 매개변수의 무게중심 즉, 평균을 중점으로 하여 사분위수(25%, 50%, 75%)에 해당되는 매개변수 개수가 선택되도록 사변형을 작성하였다. 이 때 집중시간과 저류상수 사이의 상관성을 고려하기 위해 사변형은 선형저수지 개수의 선과 선형저수지의 저류상수의 선이 만나는 점을 연결하여 작성하였다. 영춘 지점의 경우, 집중시간의 대푯값은 20.6 hr, 저류상수의 대푯값은 18.4 hr, 방림 지점은 각각 7.5 hr, 8.2 hr이다. 매개변수의 대푯값 가능범위는 충주댐 영춘 지점의 경우 1사분에서 집중시간 18-25 hr, 저류 상수는 17-20 hr 정도, 방림 지점의 경우 집중시간은 5-10 hr, 저류상수는 7-11 hr 정도이다. 아울러 추정된 대푯값의 가능 범위를 이용하여 기존의 경험공식을 평가하였다. 그 결과 집중시간의 경우 Kraven 공식, 정성원 공식이, 저류상수의 경우 Sabol 공식, 정성원 공식, 윤태훈 공식이 대푯값의 범위에 속하는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 분석 지점의 부족으로 기존의 경험공식의 정량적 평가는 어렵다. 추후에 보다 많은 지점을 대상으로 분석한다면 보다 설득력이 있는 경험공식의 평가와 다양한 유역에 적합한 경험공식의 산정도 가능할 것이다.

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A Comparative Study on Methods for Outlier Test of Rainfall in Korea (국내 강우의 이상치검정 방법의 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Jung Sik;Shin, Chang Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.359-359
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    • 2018
  • 이상치는 표본자료에서 크게 어긋나 다른 자료들로부터 떨어져 표시되는 자료로써, 실제로 발생할 확률이 매우 낮은 자료로 정의되고 있다. 설계홍수량을 산정하기 위하여 적용하고 있는 극치계열의 연최대치 강우자료에는 기계오작동 및 엔지니어의 표독오류가 발생하고 있으며, 기후변화에 따른 거대태풍 및 국지적인 집중호우 발생 등으로 인한 극치값 등에서 이상치가 관측되고 있다. 통상 이상치들은 통계분석시 자료 본연의 특성을 왜곡시켜 편향된 결과를 산정할 수 있으므로 빈도해석시 이상치해석 절차를 수행하여 자료의 적정성을 확인하여야 한다. 현재 실무에서는 설계홍수량 산정요령과 하천설계기준 해설 등에서 관련 내용을 기술하고 있지만, 국내 강우자료의 기록연수의 부족으로 인하여 빈도해석시 이상치 해석이 미수행되고 있어 이상치에 따른 자료편의가 발생하면 결과물인 확률강우량이 왜곡되게 산정될 수 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 국내 주요 도시의 강우자료를 이용하여 이상치검정을 수행하였다. 대상지점으로는 서울, 부산, 대전, 대구, 인천, 광주, 울산 등의 비교적 긴 관측년수를 보유하고 있는 광역시를 선정하였으며, 지속기간은 10분, 1~24시간의 25개 강우자료를 적용하였다. 이상치검정 방법으로는 타 방법에 비하여 이상치 검정력이 뛰어난 것으로 알려진 2가지 방법을 채택하였으며, 표본자료의 평균과 표준편차로 표준화된 z값을 이용하여 상 하 한계선를 초과하는 값을 확인하는 z-Score 방법중 향상된 중위수 절대편차(MAD)에 의한 수정 z-Score 방법(Hoaglin, 1993)과 Box-Plot 방법(Tukey, 1969)을 적용하였다. Box-Plot 방법(Tukey, 1969)은 전체 자료를 25%씩 사분위로 구분하는 방법으로 정렬된 자료계열을 중앙값, 박스, 수염(whiskers), 이상치로 구분한다. 정렬된 25~75% 값들을 박스로 포함하여 외곽의 수염값들을 이상치로 분류하며, 특히 사분위수의 도식화로 데이터의 분포를 파악하기 좋으며, 이상치들의 위치와 자료의 비대칭 여부를 쉽게 파악할 수 있다. 본 연구의 수행으로 수정 z-Score 방법의 경우에는 서울과 대구지점에는 이상치가 없으며, 부산지점에는 13개, 대전지점 7개, 인천지점 5개, 광주지점 32개, 울산지점 26개가 나타났다. Box-Plot 방법으로는 서울지점 35개, 부산지점 39개, 대전지점 32개, 대구지점 38개, 인천지점 51개, 광주지점 61개, 울산지점 65개의 이상치가 분석되었다. 연구를 수행한 결과, 수정 z-Score 방법에 비하여 Box-Plot 방법에 의한 이상치가 더 많이 발생하였으며, 각각의 방법으로 지속기간 및 연도별 이상치 발생자료를 확인하였다. 방법별 이상치 발생현황 등을 분석하여 지점별 발생횟수를 분석하였으며, 추후 지점 및 자료의 보완이 수행되면 활용성을 증대시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Application of Bivariate Spatial Association for the Quantitative Marine Environment Pattern Analysis (정량적인 해양환경패턴 분석을 위한 이변량 공간연관성 적용)

  • Hwang, Hyo-Jung;Choi, Hyun-Woo;Kim, Tea-Rim
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2008
  • The quantitative bivariate spatial pattern analysis was applied for the water quality and nutrients data of Masan Bay, and for this analysis Pearson's r as aspatial correlation measurement, Moran's I as spatial association measurement and L index as integration of aspatial and spatial measurement methods were used. To understand the aspatial and spatial characteristics implicated in L index, Pearson's r as well as Moran's I were classified into 3 types respectively, and Pearson's r and Moran's I were combined with 9 types, and also quantile of L index value was used for each of those 9 types. Finally, these types were defined as 5 groups having not overlapped L index range. According to the application result of L index groups, bivariate water quality and nutrients showed no aspatial correlation regardless of spatial association in February and July, but they showed aspatial correlation having clustered spatial pattern in May and November. The result of this study providing the guideline for the interpretation of aspatial correlation and spatial association using L index is expected to be helpful for the marine environment pattern analysis using quantitative index for further study.

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New evaluation chart of stature and weight for Koreans (한국인 키 및 몸무게 신 평가표에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Shin-Jae;Kim, Young-Jae;Kim, Tae-Woo;Ahn, Sug-Joon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.36 no.2 s.115
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 2006
  • For orthodontic treatment of growing patients and those which involve long treatment times, knowledge of growth and development are essential. Data from the general growth observation chart being used at present does not reflect the growth transition of modern times. This is because these data are out of date. The present study, therefore, aims to introduce the process of producing a growth curve and growth rate curve based on data which represents a more accurate description of the present situation. The data used were from the 5th nationwide surrey, SIZE KOREA 2004 study, carried out by the Technology and Standards Policy Division, Department of Technology and Standards Planning, Ministry of Commerce. Processing and rearranging produced data with variations divided into the three quartiles and the 1st, 5th, 95th and 99th percentiles were included to produce a growth observation chart according to sex, height and weight differences. In the same way, a growth rate curve based on the geometric mean value was produced. The resulting growth charts can be used as an index for growth and development, and used for better communication between the orthodontist, patients and parents.

Relations between Normal Serum Gamma-glutamyltransferase and Risk Factors of Coronary Heart Diseases according to Age and Gender (연령과 성별에 따른 정상 혈청 Gamma-glutamyltransferase와 관상동맥질환 위험인자와의 관계)

  • Kwon, Se Young;Na, Young Ak
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2016
  • Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) has been widely used as a marker of alcohol intake and liver failure. Recently, the relativity between GGT and various diseases has been identified with growing interest. In this study, we examined relativity between GGT value and risk factors of coronary heart diseases among those with normal GGT value, excluding heavy drinkers. Specifically, we compared the differences based on age and gender. Data from the 2011 KNHNES were used (N=3,619). When the subjects were categorized according to quartile based on the serum GGT levels, there was 10~20, 21~27, 28~38, 39~71 IU/L in men, and 6~12, 13~16, 17~22, 23~42 IU/L in women. The mean of most variables was the highest in the $4^{th}$ quartile (Q4), however age and LDL Cholesterol were the highest in the $2^{nd}$ quartile (Q2) in men. The FRS and 10-year CHD risk was the highest in the $2^{nd}$ quartile in men, and the highest in the $4^{th}$ quartile in women. Increased GGT was correspondingly linked with age in women but age was the highest in GGT in the $2^{nd}$ quartile in men. In the 70's, the highest Q1 and Q2 was in men and the highest Q3 and Q4 in women. Although GGT value was within the normal range, increased GGT showed correlation with various risk factors. The FRS and 10-year CHD risk showed different patterns according to age and gender along with increased GGT value.

Association between Axial Length and Anthropometric Value in Korean Children (한국 어린이의 안축장과 신체 계측치와의 관련성)

  • Kim, Hyojin;Lyu, Jungmook
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.397-402
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To investigate the relationship between axial length (AL) and anthropometric parameters in Korean children. Methods: This study included 40 urban school children aged 11-12 years (mean age, $11.95{\pm}0.22$ years; 45.0% girls) residing in Seoul, South Korea. AL (using partial coherence laser interferometry), corneal radius, refractive error, height (m), and weight (kg) were measured. Body mass index (BMI $[kg/m^2]=weight/[height]^2$) and degree of obesity (DO[%]=[actual weight standard weight]/standard weight) were calculated. Furthermore, the number of hours spent reading, watching television, and using a computer every day was determined using a detailed questionnaire. Results: The students had a mean spherical equivalent refraction of $1.06{\pm}0.84$ D. Weight (r=0.427, p=0.006), BMI (r=0.508, p=0.001), and DO (r=0.371, p=0.018) showed a significant positive correlation with AL. Furthermore, longer AL was significantly associated with heavier weight (p=0.041), and higher BMI (p=0.015), and higher DO quartiles (p=0.042). After adjust for age, sex, and near-work activities, multivariate linear regression models showed that weight, BMI, and DO were still significantly associated with AL. Among the near-work activities, daily reading time was significantly associated with AL. Conclusions: AL was positively related to weight as well as daily reading time in Korean urban school children.

Physical Properties and Friction Characteristics of Fault Cores in South Korea (단층핵의 물리적 특성과 마찰 특성의 상관관계 분석)

  • Moon, Seong-Woo;Yun, Hyun-Seok;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2020
  • To understand behavior of fault cores in the field of geotechnical and geological engineering, we present an investigation of the physical properties (breccia and clay contents, unit weight, porosity, and water content) and friction characteristics (internal friction angle and cohesion) of fault cores, in granitic, sedimentary, and volcanic rocks in South Korea. The breccia contents in the fault cores are positively correlated with unit weight and negatively correlated with clay content, porosity, and water content. The inter-quartile ranges of internal friction angles and cohesion calculated from direct shear tests are 16.7-38.1° and 2.5-25.3 kPa, respectively. The influence of physical properties on the friction characteristics of the fault cores was analyzed and showed that in all three rock types the internal friction angles are positively correlated with breccia content and unit weight, and negatively correlated with clay content, porosity, and water content. In contrast, the cohesions of the fault cores are negatively correlated with breccia content and unit weight, and positively correlated with clay content, porosity, and water content.

Dry-heat Treatment Effect for Seed Longevity Prediction in Rice Germplasm (벼 유전자원의 저장수명 예측을 위한 건열처리 효과)

  • Na, Young-Wang;Baek, Hyung-Jin;Choi, Yu-Mi;Lee, Sok-Young;Lee, Jung-Ro;Chung, Jong-Wook;Park, Yong-Jin;Kim, Seok-Hyeon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.230-238
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to develop the cost-effective and efficiency seed longevity prediction method of rice (Oryza sativa L.) germplasm for viability monitoring. To find an optimum predicting method for rice seed longevity at genebank, an accelerated ageing (AA) test, a controlled deterioration (CD) test and a dry-heat treatment (DHT) were conducted to the four groups of rice germplasm based on ecotype, such as Indica, Japonica, Javanica and Tongil type. Among the three artificial aging treatments, the dry-heat treatment of 36 hours at $90^{\circ}C$ is suggested as a routine predictive test method of rice germplasm longevity at a genebank. The distribution of germination rate on 3,066 accessions which conserved 26.5 years at $4^{\circ}C$ showed similar trend with the result of distribution by dry-heat treatment at $90^{\circ}C$ on 36 hours using 106 accessions of rice selected samples which composed four ecotype groups. The results show that the dry-heat treatment affect not only predicting the rice seed longevity but also determining effective interval for monitoring germination of rice germplasm in genebanks.