• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고모형

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An Empirical Study on the Relationship of Access Management to Traffic Accidents - Case of Large Urban Arterial Streets in Texas - (접근성관리와 교통사고와의 관계에 관한 경험적 연구 - Texas지역 대도시 간선도로를 사례로 -)

  • 권영종
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 1997
  • 접든성통제는 고속도로에 있어서 교통사고 감소의 가장 효과적인 수단들 중의 하나로 인식되어져왔다. 이러한 접근통제의 새로운 적용으로서 접근성관리는 과도한 투자 없이 일반도로상에서 교통사고를 감소시키는데 활용되고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 도시간선도로상에 있어서 접근성관리와 교통사고와의 관계를 교통사고비용의 측면에서 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위해, 이 연구는 미국 텍사스주 대도시 지역내 중앙분리간선도로의 교통사고자료를 다중회귀모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 이 연구는 자료분석의 결과 다음과 같은 사실을 발견할 수 있었다. 첫째, 접근성관리는 도시간선도로의 교통사고비용과 밀접한 관계를 가지고 있었다. 둘째, 이러한 접근성관리와 교통사고비용과의 관계는 도로의 교통상황과 도로변 토지이용상태에 따라 다양하게 나타났다. 셋째, 대체로 접근성관리와 관련된 요인이 교통상황 및 토지이용상태에 관련된 요인보다 더 교통사고비용과 밀접한 관계를 보였다. 마지막으로, 교통사고비용을 설명하는데 있어 가장 중용한 접근성 관리 요인은 외부접근로의 간격으로 나타났다.

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Level of Service of Signalized Intersections Considering both Delay and Accidents (지체와 사고를 고려한 신호교차로 서비스수준 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Je-Jin;Park, Seong-Yong;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2008
  • Level of Service (LOS) is one of ways to evaluate operational conditions. It is very important factor in evaluation especially for the facility of highways. However, some studies proved that ${\upsilon}/c$ ratio and accident rate is appeared like a second function which has a U-form. It means there is a gap between LOS and safety of highway facilities. Therefore, this study presents a method for evaluation of a signalized intersection which is considered both smooth traffic operation (delay) and traffic safety (accident). Firstly, as a result of our research, accident rates and EPDO are decreased when it has a big delay. In that reason, it is necessary to make a new Level of Service included traffic safety. Secondly, this study has developed a negative binominal regression model which is based on the relation between accident patterns and stream. Thirdly, standards of LOS are presented which is originated from calculation between annual delay costs and annual accident cost at each intersection. Lastly, worksheet form is presented as an expression to an estimation step of a signalized intersection with traffic accident prediction model and new LOS.

Analysis of Accident Characteristics and Improvement Strategies of Flash Signal-operated Intersection in Seoul (서울시 점멸신호 운영에 따른 교통사고 분석 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seung-Jun;Park, Byung-Jung;Lee, Jin-Hak;Kim, Ok-Sun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.54-63
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    • 2014
  • Traffic accident frequency and severity level in Korea are known to be very serious. Especially the number of pedestrian fatalities was much worse and 1.6 time higher than the OECD average. According to the National Police Agency, the flash signals are reported to have many safety benefits as well as travel time reduction, which is opposed to the foreign studies. With this background of expanding the flash signal, this research aims to investigate the overall impact of the flash signal operation on safety, investigating and comparing the accident occurrence on the flash signal and the full signal intersections. For doing this accident prediction models for both flash and full signal intersections were estimated using independent variables (geometric features and traffic volume) and 3-year (2011-2013) accident data collected in Seoul. Considering the rare and random nature of accident occurrence and overdispersion (variance > mean) of the data, the negative binomial regression model was applied. As a result, installing wider crosswalk and increasing the number of pedestrian push buttons seemed to increase the safety of the flash signal intersections. In addition, the result showed that the average accident occurrence at the flash signal intersections was higher than at the full signal-operated intersections, 9% higher with everything else the same.

Morkov Model of Robot System With Human Error (로봇시스템에서 휴먼에러를 고려한 마코프모형)

  • 최성운
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2000
  • 최근 자동화생산 및 장치산업에서 로봇시스템의 사용이 증가하고 있다. 그러나 로봇 오퍼레이터, 프로그래머, 공무요원 등 간의 커뮤니케이션 부족으로 휴먼에러가 발생하여 사람의 안전재해사고 뿐 아니라 로봇시스템 가동율에서도 나뱉 영향을 주고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 여유컴포넌트 마코프모형을 기초로 휴먼에러를 고려한 마코프모형을 제안한다.

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최적 노심입구온도 분포모형을 이용한 고리 1호기 주증기관 파단사고 분석

  • 엄길섭;이병일;김정진;김희철;박군철
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1996.05b
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    • pp.556-561
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    • 1996
  • 주증기관 파단사고가 발생하여 서로 다른 온도 및 유속을 갖는 냉각재가 원자로 용기에 유입 될 때 downcomer 및 lower plenum 에서의 혼합현상을 3차원 열수력 분석코드 COMMIX-lB[1]로 모사하여 노심입구에서의 온도분포를 결정하고, 결정된 온도분포를 이용하여 주증기관 파단사고에 대한 열적여유도를 분석하였다. 분석은 주증기관 파단사고시 노심입구온도의 비대칭성이 가장 큰 고리 1호기를 선택하여 수행되었으며, 15주기 교체노심 설계 결과와 비교하여 열적 여유도가 다소 증가함을 확인하였다.

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Experiments to Simulate an Electric Shock Accident of a high Voltage using a Human Body Model (인체모형을 이용한 고전압(22.9[kV]) 감전사고 모의 실험)

  • Roh, Young-Su;Jang, Tae-Jun;Kwak, Hee-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2006
  • Recent statistical data regarding electric shock accidents have been analyzed to examine the electric shock accidents occurred at the voltage of 22,900[V], In order to demonstrate the mechanism of the 22,900[V] electric shock accident, a number of experiments to simulate electric shock accidents have been performed based on the analysis results. In the experiment, the current flowing through a human body model was measured to quantitatively analyze the hazards of the simulated electric shock accidents in various situations. As a result of the experiment, it was shown that once an electric shock accident occurred the accident proved fatal to the human body, regardless of electric shock situation.

The effect of road weather factors on traffic accident - Focused on Busan area - (도로위의 기상요인이 교통사고에 미치는 영향 - 부산지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Kyeongjun;Jung, Imgook;Noh, Yunhwan;Yoon, Sanggyeong;Cho, Youngseuk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2015
  • Them traffic accidents have been increased every year due to increasing of vehicles numbers as well as the gravitation of the population. The carelessness of drivers, many road weather factors have a great influence on the traffic accidents. Especially, the number of traffic accident is governed by precipitation, visibility, humidity, cloud amounts and temperature. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of road weather factors on traffic accident. We use the data of traffic accident, AWS weather factors (precipitation, existence of rainfall, temperature, wind speed), time zone and day of the week in 2013. We did statistical analysis using logistic regression analysis and decision tree analysis. These prediction models may be used to predict the traffic accident according to the weather condition.

Measures of Reducing Traffic Accidents by Aging Bus Drivers (시내버스 운전자의 고령화에 따른 교통사고 저감대책 마련에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Choi, Jae Won;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3D
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2011
  • The Implementation Semi-Public Management System of Intra-City Bus brings improvements of the position stability, work environment and welfare of the bus drivers. As these benefits prevent drivers' job changes, average age of the drivers increases. Some side effects such as fatality increase after the implementation of the new system are becoming social problems. To minimize such problems, it is necessary to prepare the measurements reflected drivers' age increase and driving characteristics of old drivers to decrease traffic accidents of intra-city buses. The existing measurements are mostly simple policy. To get over such limitations, this study grasped driving characteristics by surveys and driving aptitude test targeting old drivers and non-old drivers who brings about traffic accidents actually. As a result, the characteristics of the old drivers were understood precisely. The measures of decrease of the traffic accidents are suggested by the analysis of the behavior characteristics of the old drivers through the structural equation model.

A Study on the Application of Variable Speed Limits(VSL) for Preventing Accidents on Freeways (고속도로 교통사고 예방을 위한 가변제한속도 적용방안 연구)

  • Park, Joon-Hyung;Hwang, Hyo-Won;Oh, Cheol;Chang, Myung-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2008
  • Using variable speed limits (VSL) is a key strategy for preventing traffic accidents and alleviating traffic congestion. This study proposes an algorithm to operate VSLs on freeways for traffic safety. The proposed algorithm consists of two components based on accident likelihood estimation and analysis of safe stopping distance under various environmental conditions. A binary logistic regression technique is used for estimating accident likelihood. It is expected that the proposed algorithm would be successfully applied in practice in support of an integrated traffic and environmental condition monitoring system. Technical issues associated with the field implementation are also discussed.

Analysis of the Factors and Patterns Associated with Death in Aircraft Accidents and Incidents Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 항공기 사고 및 준사고로 인한 사망 발생 요인 및 패턴 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hun;Kim, Tae-Un;Yoo, Dong-Hee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the influential factors and patterns associated with death from aircraft accidents and incidents using data mining techniques. To this end, we used two datasets for aircraft accidents and incidents, one from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the other from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). We developed our prediction models using the decision tree classifier to predict death from aircraft accidents or aircraft incidents and thereby derive the main cause factors and patterns that can cause death based on these prediction models. In the NTSB data, deaths occurred frequently when the aircraft was destroyed or people were performing dangerous missions or maneuver. In the FAA data, deaths were mainly caused by pilots who were less skilled or less qualified when their aircraft were partially destroyed. Several death-related patterns were also found for parachute jumping and aircraft ascending and descending phases. Using the derived patterns, we proposed helpful strategies to prevent death from the aircraft accidents or incidents.