• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고모형

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Analysis of Factors influencing Severity of Motorcycle Accidents using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗모형에 의한 이륜차 사고심각도의 영향요인 분석)

  • Choi, Jung Woo;Kum, Ki Jung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study drew factors affecting motorcycle accidents in Seoul by severity using an ordered probit model and aimed to analyze and verify the drawn influence factors. METHODS : As the severity of the accidents could be classified into three types (fatal injury, serious injury and minor injury), this study drew the factors affecting accidents by a comparative analysis employing an ordered probit model, removed the variables that would not secure significance sequentially to construct a model with high explanatory power regarding the factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents, and calculated the marginal effect of each factor to understand the degree of each factor's impact on the severity. First, Model 1 put in all variables; Model 2 was constructed by removing the variables of the road surface conditions that could not meet the level of significance (p=0.608); Model 3 was constructed by removing gender variable (p=0.423); and Model 4 was constructed finally by removing age variable (p=0.320). RESULTS : As a result of an analysis, statistically significant variables were time of occurrence, type of accident, road alignment and motorcycle displacement, and it turned out that the impacts on the severity were in the following order: a road alignment of left downhill, the type of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents and a road alignment of a flatland on the left. The significance of the models was tested using the likelihood ratio, the level of significance and suitability statistics about them, and as a result of the test, the significance level and suitability of the constructed models were all excellent. In addition, the model accuracy indicating the accuracy of a predicted value compared to that of the value actually observed was 70.3% for minor injury; 70.1% for serious injury; and 68.6% for fatal injury, and the overall accuracy was 70.2%, which was very high. CONCLUSIONS : As a result of an analysis of motorcycle accidents in Seoul through the ordered probit model and the marginal effect, it turned out that their severity increased in nighttime accidents as compared to daytime ones and gradually increased in the order of motorcycle-to-vehicle accidents, motorcycle-to-person ones and the ones involving motorcycle only. As a result of an analysis, the severity of accidents in road alignments of left downhill, left flatland and straight downhill increased as compared to those in a road alignment of straight flatland and that the severity of accidents of motorcycles with a displacement larger than 50cc was higher than that of those with a displacement smaller than 50cc.

A Brief Verification Study on the Normalization and Translation Invariant of Measurement Data for Seaport Efficiency;DEA Approach (항만효율성 측정 자료의 정규성과 변환 불변성 검증소고;DEA접근)

  • Park, Ro-Kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Port Economic Association Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.391-405
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to verify the two problems(normalization for the different inputs and outputs data, and translation invariant for the negative data) which will be occurred in measuring the seaport DEA(data envelopment analysis) efficiency. The main result is as follow: Normalization and translation invariant in the BCC model for measuring the seaport efficiency by using 26 Korean seaport data in 1995 with two inputs(berthing capacity, cargo handling capacity) and three outputs(import cargo throughput, export cargo throughput, number of ship calls) was verified. The main policy implication of this paper is that the port management authority should collect the more specific data and publish these data on the inputs and outputs in the seaports with consideration of negative(ex. accident numbers in each seaport) and positive value for analyzing the efficiency by the scholars, because normalization and translation invariant in the data was verified.

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A Study on the Using Patterns and Using Promotion Strategy for Special Transport Service : the case of Suwon City, korea (특별교통서비스의 이용실태 및 활성화 방안 연구 : 수원시를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Kyu-Jin;Kim, Suk-hee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to contribute the use of special taxi for the transportation vulnerable such as elderly and pregnant woman in terms of improving transportation mobility and extending social participation. We analyzed the DB users of STS system operating in Suwon, and surveyed the preference statement. Specifically, we have built transportation mode choice models for the elderly and pregnant woman, and then we drew the activating STS plan by comparing influence factors for each model. Based on the results of the study, 23% of STS user was the elderly people and pregnant women, 31% of user was for hospital passage purpose, and short-haul passage within 2 ~ 5km was 70% level of the passage. According to preference survey results between STS and Bus, fare was the highest impact factor in the mode choices for the elderly, and the participants who are older and car owners have been found to prefer the special taxi. For the pregnant woman, travel time and fare were the main influence factors of choices, and it was discovered that they preferred the special taxi when they are car owners and trips was frequented. Also, if the fare of special taxi is about 70% of the regular taxi fare, The share rates of Special Taxi comparing to bus for the elderly and pregnant woman are analyzed to be 51.1% and 63.6% each. Therefore, the adjustment of the fare would be effective to encourage the use of the special taxi. The results of this study can be used as a basis for establishing the rational fare structure of the special taxi.

Reliability Analysis Method for Concrete Containment Structures (콘크리트 차폐(遮蔽) 구조물(構造物)의 신뢰성(信賴性) 해석방법(解析方法))

  • Han, Bong Koo;Chang, Sung Pil
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 1990
  • The safety of concrete nuclear containment structures should be secured against all kinds of loading due to various natural disasters or extraordinary accidental loads. The current design criteria of concrete containment structures are not based on the reliabillty-based design concept but rely on the conventional design concept. In this paper, a probabillty-based reliability analysis were proposed based on a FEM-based random vibration analysis and serviceability limit state of structures. The limit state model defined for the study is a serviceability limit state in terms of the more realistic crack failure that might cause the emission of radioactive materials, and the results are compared with those of the strength limit state. More accurate reliability analyses under various dynamic loads such as earthquake loads were made possible by incorporation the FEM and random vibration theory, which is different from the conventional reliability analysis method. The uncertainties in loads and resistance available in Korea and the refernces were adapted to the situation of Korea, and especially in the case of earthquake, the design earthquake was assessed based on the available re ports on probabilistic description of earthquake ground acceleration in the Korea peninsula.

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A Pulse-Echo Testing Model for Partially Damaged Ultrasonic Transducers (부분 손상을 입은 초음파 탐촉자의 펄스-에코 시험 모델)

  • Song, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 1996
  • In ultrasonic testing, flaw signal from which quantitative information on flaws is determined is influenced by 3 factors : (1) the incident wavefield.produced by the transducer, (2) the scattered waves produced by flaws, and (3) the reception of the scattered waves back at the transducer. So even small changes in transducer performance due to aging or unexpected damages can produce the changes in the characteristics of flaw signal and finally the changes in the quantitative information on flaws. Thus a reliable calibration method of transducer performance is desired. Recently, theoretical models for ultrasonic testing have been employed as reference standards for the calibration of transducers which are considered as circular planar piston sources in the most of cases. But this simplification cannot be applied to partially damaged transducer which has lost their symmetry in performance, even not in appearance. Unfortunately there has been no reliable practical model which can be used for the calibration of partially damaged transducers. Here a pulse-echo testing model for partially damaged ultrasonic transducers was developed with experimental verification. The experimental responses agree very well with the theoretical prediction. So we expect that this model can be served as a theoretical reference standards for transducer calibration.

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Korean Mathematics Textbook Analysis: Focusing on a Context of Yungbokhap and on Ways of Integration (중학교 1학년 수학교과서의 실세계 기반 과제 분석: 융복합교육의 맥락과 방식을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Jong-Eun;Park, Mi-Yeong;Ju, Mi-Kyung;Jeong, SooYong
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.493-513
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    • 2015
  • This study is based on the perspective that tasks in local and global contexts are important to raise students' ability to mathematically analyze and solve diverse phenomena and social issues as members of future civil society. Therefore, this study analyzes 880 real world tasks from 13 types of 7th grade textbook based on 2009 revised Curriculum. As a result of analyzing tasks by using 3 types of context category and 9 types of ways as analysis framework and allowing repetitive coding, personal context was most frequent in the context of Younbokhap. In level of Integrated ways of Yungbokhap, sequential model in which other subjects' topics were not directly related to mathematics problem or presented in simple description is most frequent. The result shows that the textbooks are too limited to develop learner's competencies. Through such analysis result, we discuss about the necessity and methods of developing tasks which allow learners to study further in future society and global context and which connect other subjects' knowledge and social issue with mathematics in deeper level.

Development and Application of Subway's Operating Cost Functions with Full Allocation Method (For Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daegu) (완전배정방법을 이용한 도시철도 운행비용 모형의 정립과 적용 (서울, 인천, 부산, 대구지하철을 중심으로))

  • Song, Sun-Ah;Suh, Sun-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2004
  • We may consider the inducement of demand to public transportation as a solution to relieve traffic congestion and pollution. Subway has merits as moving on schedule, transporting more people than bus. But subway is required a vast investment in the early stage of construction has a huge debt. So it runs into red figures, and on this account, services of subway are falling more and more. Development of subway's operation cost function is useful to understand structure of subway's operation and catch the relations of operation cost and actual results. In addition, we can present the policy that is a helpful to the operation as development of operation cost function. But there are short of studies about operation cost deal with a subway comparison with local train. Because local train has many lines and data, on the other hand, subway has one to four lines and less data. Most of previous studies sought the operation cost function of Seoul. So this study aimed to develop and apply the operation cost function of Seoul, Incheon, Busan and Daegu area using full allocation method. In this study, we considered the number of passengers, track-km, train-km, revenue as actual results. By appling the operation cost function, we compared the average cost of each city and confirmed the existence of economies of scale about the number of passengers, train-km.

Radiation Shielding Analysis on The Spent Fuel Storage Facility for the Extended Fuel Cycle (장주기(長週期) 핵연료(核燃料) 저장시설(貯藏施設)에서의 방사선차폐해석(放射線遮蔽解析))

  • Lee, Tae-Young;Ha, Chung-Woo;Yook, Chong-Chul
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 1984
  • Estimated dose rates in spent fuel pool storage with the extended fuel cycle core management were reviewed and compared with design limit after calculation with the aid of DLC-23/CASK(22 n, 18 g) nuclear data and ANISN code. Radioactivity and gamma spectrum within spent fuel assemblies were calculated with ORIGEN code by extended fuel cycle model. In the calculation of dose rate, the fuel pool geometry was assumed to be infinite slab. Also, composition materials and radiation source within assemblies which are being stored in pool storage were assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout all the assemblies. As a result of culculation of dose rate from stored assemblies and waterborne radionuclides in pool water, the calculated dose rates appear to be lower than design basis limit under normal condition as well as abnormal condition.

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BIOASSAY STUDY OF EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF MACTRA CHINENSIS PHILIPPI FOR THE WATER QUALITY EVALUATION OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF BUSAN (개량조개, Mactra chinensis Philippi 발생에 의한 부산연안 해수의 수질오탁 조사)

  • LEE Taek Yuil;SON Young Won
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 1978
  • Early developmental stages of Mactra chinensis were bioassayied to determin the water quality of the costal waters of Busan. The water samples were obtained at 12 stations from July 12 to July 17, 1977. Water quality evaluation was made in terms of the rates of normal development to abnormal development in three indicatory states, i. e. fertilization membrane formation, morula and trochophore larvae. The pollution degree of the waters brought from five swimming beaches was found to be highest at Haewundae followed by Songdo, Kwang-anri, Songjeong and Dadaepo with decreasing order. The highest value of the water at Haewundae was mainly due to the accidental oil spill from an oil tanker which happened on July 7, 1977. At Dongsamdong the rate of total abnormal development was $47.17\%$. This result is apparently attributable to fish byproducts discarded from a number of restaurants. At Chungmudong where a large fish-market is located, the rate of total abnormal development was $61.14\%$. At Suyeng Bay and Yongho Bay the rates of total abnormal development were $73.82\%$ and $72.90\%$ respectively. At these bays the drainage presumably contains a large amount of chemical pollutants from the industrial areas. This result shows that no organisms can normally breed in these regions.

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A Study on Bridge Construction Risk Analysis for Third-Party Damage (교량공사 제3자 피해 손실에 의한 리스크 분석 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Nam, Kyung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2020
  • The recent bridge construction projects demand thorough and systematic safety and risk management, due to the increase of risk factors following the introduction of new and complex construction methods and technologies. Among many types of damages that can occur in bridge construction projects, the damages to third parties who are not directly related to the existing property of the contractor construction project can also bring about critical loss in the project in order to compensate the damages. Therefore, risks that could be caused by the loss occurred to indemnify the third party damages should be clearly analyzed, although there are not subsequent amount of studies focusing on the issue. Based on the past record of insurance payment from domestic insurance companies for bridge construction projects, this study aimed to analyze the risk factors of bridge construction for loss caused to compensate the third-party damages happened in actual bridge construction projects and to develop a quantified and numerical predictive loss model. In order to develop the model, the loss ratio was selected as the dependent variable; and among many analyzed independent variables, the superstructure, foundation, flood, and ranking of contractors were the four significant risk factor variables that affect the loss ratio. The results produced can be used as an essential guidance for balanced risk assessment, supplementing the existing analysis on material losses in bridge construction projects by taking into account the third-party damage and losses.