• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비용추정론

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The Economic Assessment of Claims for Oil Pollution Damages : The Canadian Experience (유류해양오염으로 인한 환경피해에 대한 경제적 가치평가: 캐나다의 유류해양오염에 대한 사례연구)

  • Jung, Hyung-Chan
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.157-183
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    • 2003
  • 유류오염 사고를 사전에 예방할 수 있는 정책 수단으로는 여러 가지가 있지만 주요한 것으로는 인센티브제의 활용을 들 수 있다. 유류오염 사고를 예방하고 관리하기 위한 인센티브는 유출 사고로 인해 발생한 해양자원의 피해에 대해 가해자에게 배상책임(liability for losses due to spills)을 부과함으로써 제공될 수 있다. 유류오염 사고로 인한 피해액을 실제 화폐단위로 계량화하는 작업은 배상책임 부과제도를 정책수단으로 활용하기 위해 해결해야 할 가장 어려운 과제이다. 따라서, 최근 미국과 캐나다를 중심으로 발전하고 있는 자연자원 피해에 대한 가치 평가법(Natural Resource Damage Assessment : NRDA)은 배상책임 부과제도를 정책적으로 보완할 수 있는 이론적 도구로 간주되고 있다. NRDA는 잠재적인 가해자들에게 그들이 자연환경을 보존해야 하는 사회적 의무를 이행하지 못하고 이를 훼손하게 될 때 이로 인해 발생하는 모든 사회적 비용을 직접 부담해야 한다는 명확한 재무적 인센티브(financial incentive)를 부여함으로써 가해자 보상 원칙 (polluter pays principle)을 실현 할 수 있게 한다. 본 연구는, 유류오염 사고로 인한 환경자원 피해의 경제적 가치를 추정하는 가장 중요한 이론적 모형으로 활용되고 있는 가상상황평가법(CVM)에 대한 기초 개념과 이론적 체계, 그리고 이를 실제 피해액 추정에 성공적으로 적용시키기 위해 해결해야 할 문제점 등을 다루었다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 1988년 캐나다 북서부 연안에서 발생한 Nestucca 유류오염 사고를 사례연구의 대상으로 선정하고, 사고 당시 캐나다 연방정부와 British Columbia 주정부를 대신하여 해양오염에 의한 환경피해의 경제적 가치를 추정한 미국의 컨설팅 회사인 RCG/Hagler, Baily Inc.의 가상상황평가법(CVM) 적용 사례를 분석 검토하였다. Nestucca 사례연구에서는 이들 연구자들이 실제로 활용한 설문지 설계, 설문방법 및 표본설계 등을 분석하였으며, 또한 CVM이 본질적으로 갖고 있는 방법론적 문제점들을 연구자들이 어떻게 해결하려고 했는가를 고찰하였다. 그리고, WTP 추정을 위해 RCG 연구자들이 사용한 사전규제접근법(ex ante regulatory approach)으로 인해 야기될 수 있는 환경자원 피해액 추정 방법의 한계점도 함께 검토하였다. 캐나다 연방정부와 British Columbia 주정부는 Nestucca 유류오염 사고로 인한 자연 자원 피해에 대한 손해배상으로 $4.3 Million의 보상금을 지급 받게 된다. 캐나다 정부는 이 보상금으로 Nestucca Oil Spill Trust Fund를 설립하여 피해를 입은 자연자원의 원상회복(restoration)을 위한 다양한 연구 프로젝트에 자금을 지원하고 있다. Nestucca 유류오염 사고를 계기로 캐나다 정부와 학계는 해양자원의 피해에 대한 경제적 가치평가와 자원의 원상회복에 대한 체계적인 접근 방안을 처음으로 마련 시행하게 되었다는 점에서, Nestucca 유류오염 사고에 대한 사례연구는 캐나다의 해양환경 보존 정책을 연구하는 출발점으로 평가될 수 있을 것이다. 이에 비해, 우리나라에서 대표적인 유류오염사고로 알려져 있는 시프린스호 사고와 관련된 손해배상금은 주로 연안어민들의 어업피해 배상으로 이루어져 있으며, 간접피해에 대한 배상액 48억 5천만원도 대부분 치어방류, 여수대학교 종묘배양장건립 등 피해지역 연안어업 발전을 위한 사업에 투자되었다.

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Development of Intelligent Internet Shopping Mall Supporting Tool Based on Software Agents and Knowledge Discovery Technology (소프트웨어 에이전트 및 지식탐사기술 기반 지능형 인터넷 쇼핑몰 지원도구의 개발)

  • 김재경;김우주;조윤호;김제란
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.153-177
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    • 2001
  • Nowadays, product recommendation is one of the important issues regarding both CRM and Internet shopping mall. Generally, a recommendation system tracks past actions of a group of users to make a recommendation to individual members of the group. The computer-mediated marketing and commerce have grown rapidly and thereby automatic recommendation methodologies have got great attentions. But the researches and commercial tools for product recommendation so far, still have many aspects that merit further considerations. To supplement those aspects, we devise a recommendation methodology by which we can get further recommendation effectiveness when applied to Internet shopping mall. The suggested methodology is based on web log information, product taxonomy, association rule mining, and decision tree learning. To implement this we also design and intelligent Internet shopping mall support system based on agent technology and develop it as a prototype system. We applied this methodology and the prototype system to a leading Korean Internet shopping mall and provide some experimental results. Through the experiment, we found that the suggested methodology can perform recommendation tasks both effectively and efficiently in real world problems. Its systematic validity issues are also discussed.

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Effects of Korea's R&D Activities on Expansion of Contingent Job (우리나라의 연구개발활동이 비정규직 확산에 미치는 영향)

  • Loh, Jeunghwee
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.29-61
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    • 2016
  • This paper explains the one of the most problematic factor in the society that leads to social inequality - increase in non-regular work. Theoretically, this expansion of non-regular work can be explained by technologies that are designed to save the labor force, especially since corporations in Korea have strategies to replace the regular workers with temporary workers, to save money. OECD also noted that Korea's income inequality is pretty high in ranking when compared with the rest of the OECD members, and says that globalization and technological innovation are the factors of this problem. To refine the argument, this study also looks at relationship between development made in sciences - which can be stated as a proxy variable to look at the advances made in technology - and expansion of temporary work force by using VAR methodology. Based on the results of this analysis in the future temporary/regular workers ratio started with decline, then turn to rise. These temporary/regular workers ratio sustained growth prediction shows that the expansion of the temporary expansion contributes to instability and social inequality in the labor market and technological change are interrelated.

A Study On The Economic Value Of Firm's Big Data Technologies Introduction Using Real Option Approach - Based On YUYU Pharmaceuticals Case - (실물옵션 기법을 이용한 기업의 빅데이터 기술 도입의 경제적 가치 분석 - 유유제약 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Hyuk Soo;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2014
  • This study focus on a economic value of the Big Data technologies by real options model using big data technology company's stock price to determine the price of the economic value of incremental assessed value. For estimating stochastic process of company's stock price by big data technology to extract the incremental shares, Generalized Moments Method (GMM) are used. Option value for Black-Scholes partial differential equation was derived, in which finite difference numerical methods to obtain the Big Data technology was introduced to estimate the economic value. As a result, a option value of big data technology investment is 38.5 billion under assumption which investment cost is 50 million won and time value is a about 1 million, respectively. Thus, introduction of big data technology to create a substantial effect on corporate profits, is valuable and there are an effects on the additional time value. Sensitivity analysis of lower underlying asset value appear decreased options value and the lower investment cost showed increased options value. A volatility are not sensitive on the option value due to the big data technological characteristics which are low stock volatility and introduction periods.

Application of Remote Sensing Technology for Developing REDD+ Monitoring Systems (REDD+ 모니터링 시스템 구축을 위한 원격탐사기술의 활용방안)

  • Park, Taejin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Jung, Raesun;Kim, Moon-Il;Kwon, Tae-Hyub
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.3
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    • pp.315-326
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    • 2011
  • In recent years, domestic and international interests focus on climate change, and importance of forest as carbon sink have been also increased. Particularly REDD+ mechanism expanded from REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) is expected to perform a new mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas in post 2012. To conduct this mechanism, countries which try to get a carbon credit have to certify effectiveness of their activities by MRV (Measuring, Reporting and Verification) system. This study analyzed the approaches for detecting land cover change and estimating carbon stock by remote sensing technology which is considered as the effective method to develop MRV system. The most appropriate remote sensing for detection of land cover change is optical medium resolution sensors and satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) according to cost efficiency and uncertainty assessment. In case of estimating carbon stock, integration of low uncertainty techniques, airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), SAR, and cost efficient techniques, optical medium resolution sensors and satellite SAR, could be more appropriate. However, due to absence of certificate authority, guideline, and standard of uncertainty, we should pay continuously our attention on international information flow and establish appropriate methods. Moreover, to apply monitoring system to developing countries, close collaboration and monitoring method reflected characteristics of each countries should be considered.

Development of Sample Survey Design for the Industrial Research and Development Statistics (표본조사에 의한 기업 연구개발활동 통계 작성방안)

  • Cho, Seong-Pyo;Park, Sun-Young;Han, Ki-In;Noh, Min-Sun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • The Survey on the Industrial Research and Development(R&D) is the primary source of information on R&D performed by Korea industrial sector. The results of the survey are used to assess trends in R&D expenditures. Government agencies, corporations, and research organizations use the data to investigate productivity determinants, formulate tax policy, and compare individual company performance with industry averages. Recently, Korea Industrial Technology Association(KOITA) has collected the data by complete enumeration. Koita has, currently, considered sample survey because the number of R&D institutions in industry has been dramatically increased. This study develops survey design for the industrial research and development(R&D) statistics by introducing a sample survey. Companies are divided into 8 groups according to the amount of R&D expenditures and firm size or type. We collect the sample from 24 or 8 sampling strata and compare the results with those of complete enumeration survey. The estimates from 24 sampling strata are not significantly different to the results of complete enumeration survey. We propose the survey design as follows: Companies are divided into 11 groups including the companies of which R&D expenditures are unknown. All large companies are included in the survey and medium and small companies are sampled from 70% and 3%. Simple random sampling (SRS) is applied to the small company partition since they show uniform distribution in R&D expenditures. The independent probability proportionate to size (PPS) sampling procedure may be applied to those companies identified as 'not R&D performers'. When respondents do not provide the requested information, estimates for the missing data are made using imputation algorithms. In the future study, new key variables should be developed in survey questionnaires.

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Condition Estimation of Facility Elements Using XGBoost (XGBoost를 활용한 시설물의 부재 상태 예측)

  • Chang, Taeyeon;Yoon, Sihoo;Chi, Seokho;Im, Seokbeen
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2023
  • To reduce facility management costs and safety concerns due to aging of facilities, it is important to estimate the future facilities' condition based on facility management data and utilize predictive information for management decision making. To this end, this study proposed a methodology to estimate facility elements' condition using XGBoost. To validate the proposed methodology, this study constructed sample data for road bridges and developed a model to estimate condition grades of major elements expected in the next inspection. As a result, the developed model showed satisfactory performance in estimating the condition grades of deck, girder, and abutment/pier (average F1 score 0.869). In addition, a testbed was established that provides data management function and element condition estimation function to demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology. It was confirmed that the facility management data and predictive information in this study could help managers in making facility management decisions.

정보통신연구개발사업의 우선순위 설정과 적정자원 배분 - 다기준의사결정(MCDA) 방법의 적용사례 -

  • 황용수;장진규
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 1999.05a
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    • pp.539-563
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    • 1999
  • 이 논문은 정보통신정책 목표와의 연관성 속에서 정보통신연구개발사업의 우선순위를 설정함과 아울러 비용효과성에 바탕을 둔 적정 자원배분 도출하는데 주안점을 두고 있다. 복합적인 목표를 가진 연구개발사업에 대해 사업부문별 그리고 기술분야별로 객관적이면서도 설득력있는 자원배분지침을 마련하기 위하여 본 연구는 다기준의사결정(MCDA: Multi-criteria Decision Analysis) 방법을 채택하고 있다. 이 방법론에서는 사업의 목표와 우선순위 판단기준 및 사업대안이 계층적으로 연계된 분석구조를 설계하여 사업대안의 우선순위를 먼저 설정하고, 여기에 정수계획법(Integer Programming)을 결합하여 사업의 목표와 연계된 비용-편익 관계(Cost-benefit relationship)를 최적화하는 바탕 위에서 사업대안별 자원배분 시나리오를 제시하게 된다. 이러한 절차로 사업부문별 및 기술분야별로 각각 도출된 8개의 자원배분 시나리오는 자원배분 경향치의 안정성(Stability) 분석과 자금지원의 과부족에 대한 현실적 적합성(Relevance) 분석을 거쳐 최종적으로 하나의 적정 자원배분방안으로 수렴되도록 하였다. 우선순위 설정에 기초가 되는 사업대안의 편익에 대한 자료는 전문가의 정성적 판단을 통해 수집되었는데, 이를 위해 정보통신기술 부문에서 활동 중인 중견 이상의 총 58명의 산학연 전문가를 대상으로 한 조사를 실시하였다. 먼저, 기초기반ㆍ전략기술개발사업, 연구ㆍ기술인력양성사업, 산업응용기술개발사업, 기술기반조성사업 등 4대 사업부문에 대해서는 (ⅰ) 정보통신 기술능력의 축적, (ⅱ) 정보통신산업의 경쟁력 강화, (ⅲ) 정보통신기반의 기술고도화, (ⅳ) 정보화를 위한 기술역량의 제고 등 주요 사업의 편익을 나타내는 4개 기준으로 우선 순위를 판단하였고, 정보통신망기술, 전파 및 RF 기술, 정보처리기술, 반도체 소자/설계 기술 등 13개 기술분야에 대해서는 (ⅰ) 공공정책적 임무에 대한 기여, (ⅱ) 기술자립기반의 확충, (ⅲ) 기술발전성과 기술적 파급효과, (ⅳ) 기술적 산물의 시장잠재력 등 기술분야 연구개발을 통한 편익을 나타내는 4개 기준으로 우선순위를 판단하였다. 우선순위는 사업대안에 대한 가중치로 표시되었고, 적정 자원배분방안은 추정된 총예산 규모에 따라 지원수준에 대한 일정한 제약조건 하에서 비용-편익 관계에 따른 자원의 최적 할당량으로 제시되었다. 본 연구는 총예산 규모의 가변성, 사업 및 기술분야 대안의 분류체계에 대한 공감대 부족, 사업목표의 상호연관성과 우선순위 판단기준의 부분적 중첩성 등 여러 제약요인이 있어 도출된 구체적인 수치보다는 방향성에 더 큰 의미를 부여하는 것이 바람직하다. 그러나, 이러한 연구의 한계에도 불구하고 도출된 우선순위와 적정 자원배분방안은 문제해결의 실행타당성을 감안하여 비교적 객관적이고 균형있는 결과로 판단된다.

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Standardization of the Lease Fee Assessment System of Busan Port Container Terminals (부산항 컨테이너부두 임대료 산정체계 표준화 방안)

  • Kil, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.65-90
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    • 2011
  • Private stevedoring companies are leasing and operating the container terminals of the Busan Port. The total amount of lease fees private stevedoring companies paid in 2010 reached 161 billion wons, an approximately 66 percent of the total revenue of the Busan Port Authority(BPA). In other words, lease fees are the most important revenue source for BPA. However, the lease fee assessment system of Busan container terminals goes against the principle of equity due to different assessment methods and criteria adopted by each container terminal. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to analyze the systematic problems of the lease fee assessment system that is used at Busan container terminals, and propose a new standardized scheme with a case study on the new system. In order to standardize the assessment system, the assessment methods need to be simplified by using the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) method. In addition, the assessment criteria such as assessment duration, discount rates, price indexes, estimated container throughputs, sales unit price per TEU, operation costs, including labor costs, need to be standardized as well. The new standardized assessment system can be applied to estimate lease fees for new terminals. However, for existing terminals to run the new system, factors such as assessment duration, discount rates, price indexes, estimated container throughputs, investment and re-investment costs, and maintenance & repair costs of the new system should be changed slightly.

Estimation and Comparison of Benefits of Disaster Prevention Facilities at the Masan Port with CVM and MD-FDA (조건부가치추정법과 다차원홍수피해산정법을 이용한 마산항 재해방지시설의 편익산정 비교)

  • Seo, Inho;Shin, Seungsik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.289-323
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    • 2013
  • This study set out to estimate and compare benefits of damage in case of storm surge at the Masan Port by using two of the most representative methodologies used to estimate benefits in port disaster prevention facility construction, namely CVM(contingent valuation method), which estimates the values of non-market goods, and MD-FDA(multi-dimensional flood damage analysis), which had usually been implemented in flood or dam projects. The benefit estimation for 30 years of costs was 2.5689 trillion won for CVM and 2.9596 trillion won for MD-FDA, which indicates that there was no big difference in benefits among disaster prevention facilities. However, in-depth testing should follow to figure out whether MD-FDA can replace CVM, which has been tested with non-market goods, when estimating the benefits of disaster prevention facilities based on those findings.