• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.653-659
• /
• 2002

This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.50 no.2
• /
• pp.129-143
• /
• 2017

The shallow sediments in the southwestern Ulleung Basin consist of mass flow deposits such as slide/slump and debris flow deposits (DFD), caused by slope failure. These sediments are proven to be important in studying geological disaster and stability of the seafloor. In this paper, we analysised the flow accumulation and slope failure susceptibility of the Ulleung Basin on the basis of multi-beam data, collected in this area. We also studied the distribution pattern and the seismic characteristics of the DFD in the uppermost layer of the Ulleung Basin on the basis of seismic data. The slope susceptibility was calculated as the frequency ratio of each factors including slope, aspect, curvature and stream power index (SPI), which causes the slope failure. These results indicate that the slope failure is frequently to occur in the southern and western continental slope of the Ulleung Basin. The sediment flow (mass flow) caused by the slope failure converges to the north and northwest of the Ulleung Basin. According to the seismic characteristics, the uppermost layer in study area can be divided into four sedimentary unit. These sedimentary units develop from the south and southwest to the north and northwest in association with slope susceptibility and flow accumulation.

• Explosives and Blasting
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2023

On August 4, 2020, 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a storage warehouse at the Port of Beirut exploded. This explosion is said to be the largest ammonium nitrate explosion ever. By applying the TNT equivalency method, TNT equivalent amount corresponding to the explosion energy of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate was calculated, and it is found to be 856 tons. Overpressure and impulse were calculated in a range up to 3600 m from the blast using the Kingery-Bulmash explosion parameter calculator tool. As the distance from the explosion center increases, the overpressure and impulse decrease exponentially, but the overpressure decreases more significantly, showing that overpressure is more affected by distance than the impact. As a result of applying the damage criteria to evaluate the effects of overpressure and impulse on the structure, the critical distances at which partial collapse, major damage, and minor damage to the structure occur are found to be approximately 500, 800, and 2200 m from the center of the explosion, respectively. The probit function was applied to evaluate the probability of damage to structures and human body. The points where the probability of collapse, major damage, minor damage, and breakage of window-panes to structures are greater than 50% are found to be approximately 500, 810, 2200, and 3200 m, respectively. For people within 200 m from the center of the explosion, the probability of death due to lung damage is more than 99%, and the 50% probability of eardrum rupture is approximately 300 m. The points with a 100% probability of death due to skull rupture and whole body impact due to whole body displacement are evaluated to be 300 and 100 m, respectively.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.16 no.12
• /
• pp.8879-8888
• /
• 2015

When the disaster like earthquake in urban area occur, due to the collapse accidents for subway, tunnel space with buildings or underground area, enormous property and human damage are happened. Specially, since it is difficult to identify survived status of humans within collapsed debris and accurately buried locations of the humans, inputs of considerable time and manpower for rescuing them are required. Besides, secondary damage can be occurred by additional collapses. The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic location positioning method that enables to provide aid information by determining locations of mobile devices for buried persons in 2-D plane using wireless communication technologies. This study selected a detection method for buried persons based on Wi-Fi signal, and identified characteristics of signal strengths by distance unit. Using these methods, a stochastic location detection model in 2-D plane was built. It is expected that this technology will be utilized as a core technology that can protects safety and human life of the public by providing data for rescuing quickly buried persons in cases of national disasters for future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
• /
• 1996.03a
• /
• pp.55-72
• /
• 1996

암반사면의 안정성은 암반내에 발달된 불연속면의 기하학적 속성과 강도정수에 크게 영향을 받으며, 사면방향에 대한 불연속면들의 상대적인 방향성들은 구조적으로 발생 가능한 붕괴양상을 결정하게 된다. 불연속면을 따라 미끄러짐이 발생하는 암반사면의 불안정성 분석에는 결정론적인 해석(deterministic analysis)과 확률론적인 해석(probabilistic analysis)들을 포함하여 수많은 방법들이 이용되고 있다. (중략)

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.289-295
• /
• 2004

Pressure tubes are major component of nuclear reactor, but only selected samples are periodically examined due to numerous numbers of tubes. Current in-service inspection result show there is high probability of flaw existence at uninspected pressure tube. Probabilistic analysis is applied in this study for the integrity assessment of uninspected pressure tube. All the current integrity evaluations procedures are based on conventional deterministic approaches. So it is expected that the results obtained are too conservative to perform a rational evaluation of lifetime. More realistic failure criteria, based on FAD are also proposed for the probabilistic analysis. As a result of this study failure probabilities for various conditions are calculated, and examined application of FAD and LBB concept.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.1211-1215
• /
• 2003

Pressure tubes are major component of nuclear reactor, but only selected samples are periodically examined due to numerous numbers of tubes. Current in-service inspection result show there is high probability of flaw existence at un-inspected pressure tube. Probabilistic analysis is applied in this study for the integrity assessment of un-inspected pressure tube. But all the current integrity evaluations procedures are based on conventional deterministic approaches. So many integrity evaluation parameters are not directly apply to probabilistic analysis. As a result of this study failure assessment diagram are proposed based on test data.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.43 no.6
• /
• pp.785-791
• /
• 2023

Risk management is essential for preventing accidents arising from uncertainties in TBM tunnel projects, especially concerning managing the risk of TBM tunnel collapse, which can cause extensive damage from the tunnel face to the ground surface. In addition, prioritizing risks is necessary to allocate resources efficiently within time and cost constraints. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a TBM risk database through case studies of TBM accidents and determine a risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse using the Bayes theorem. The database consisted of 87 cases, dealing with three accidents and five geological sources. Applying the Bayes theorem to the database, it was found that fault zones and weak ground significantly increased the probability of tunnel collapse, while the other sources showed low correlations with collapse. Therefore, the risk priority for TBM tunnel collapse, considering geological sources, is as follows: 1) Fault zone, 2) Weak ground, 3) Mixed ground, 4) High in-situ stress, and 5) Expansive ground. In practice, the derived risk priority can serve as a valuable reference for risk management, enhancing the safety and efficiency of TBM construction. It provides guidance for developing appropriate countermeasure plans and allocating resources effectively to mitigate the risk of TBM tunnel collapse.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.10 s.175
• /
• pp.137-143
• /
• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.23 no.11
• /
• pp.109-117
• /
• 2007

Uncertainty is pervasive in rock slope stability analysis due to various reasons and subsequently it may cause serious rock slope failures. Therefore, the importance of uncertainty has been recognized and subsequently the probability theory has been used to quantify the uncertainty since 1980's. However, some uncertainties, due to incomplete information, cannot be handled satisfactorily in the probability theory and the fuzzy set theory is more appropriate for those uncertainties. In this study the random variable is considered as fuzzy number and the fuzzy set theory is employed in rock slope stability analysis. However, the previous fuzzy analysis employed the approximate method, which is first order second moment method and point estimate method. Since previous studies used only the representative values from membership function to evaluate the stability of rock slope, the approximated analysis results have been obtained in previous studies. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized to evaluate the probability of failure for rock slope in the current study. This overcomes the shortcomings of previous studies, which are employed vertex method. With Monte Carlo simulation technique, more complete analysis results can be secured in the proposed method. The proposed method has been applied to the practical example. According to the analysis results, the probabilities of failure obtained from the fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation coincide with the probabilities of failure from the probabilistic analysis.