• Title/Summary/Keyword: 붕괴확률

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Probabilistic Integrity Assessment of CANDU Pressure Tube for the Consideration of Flaw Generation Time (결함발생 시점을 고려한 CANDU 압력관 결함의 확률론적 건전성평가)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Lee, Joon-Seong;Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Youn-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.155-160
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    • 2001
  • This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, it is necessary to perform the PFM analyses based on statistical consideration of flaw generation time. A depth and an aspect ratio of initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value, delayed hydride cracking (DHC) velocity, and flaw generation time are assumed to be probabilistic variables. In all the analyses, degradation of fracture toughness due to neutron irradiation is considered. Also, the failure criteria considered are plastic collapse, unstable fracture and crack penetration. For the crack growth by DHC, the failure probability was evaluated in due consideration of flaw generation time.

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Probabilistic Evaluation Methodology for Nuclear Components (원전 주요기기의 확률론적 평가 기법)

  • Lee, Joon-Seong;Kwak, Sang-Log;Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Youn-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.459-464
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    • 2001
  • For major nuclear power plant components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. But many flaws are undetectable due to sampling inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties, applied load and undetectable flaws. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking important parameters as probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness, crack growth rate and flaw shape, failure probability of major nuclear power plant components is archived as a results of MC simulation. For the verification of these analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

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Damage Probabilities according to the Structural Characteristics of Bridges and the Determination of Target Ductilities (교량의 구조특성에 따른 손상확률과 목표연성도 결정)

  • Sun, Chang-Ho;Lee, Jong-Seok;Kim, Ick-Hyun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • The target performance of a current seismic design code is to achieve collapse-prevention in order to minimize casualties. Existing structures are also being retrofitted to meet this target performance. This seismic performance seems to have been achieved in recent great overseas earthquakes, but the accompanying enormous economic loss is pointed out as a new problem. A new seismic design concept over the current target performance is required to reduce economic loss, in which a target performance is determined by the damage probability in order to control the damage levels of structures. In this study, the seismic behavior of bridges having different characteristics was investigated by nonlinear seismic analyses, and fragility curves with respect to a reference damage level were derived. Based on these results, the characteristics of target ductilities satisfying a target damage probability were investigated.

Determination of the Collapse Load of Elastic-Perfectly Plastic Frame Under the Probabilistic Load Incremental Method (확률특성을 고려한 탄성-완전소성 뼈대 구조물의 붕괴하중 산정)

  • 윤성수;장주흠;김한중;이정재
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 1998
  • Since a structure carries out its given functions and purposes while it is always resisting against the external load, the capacity of the resistance in the structure within the range that will not collapse the structure itself becomes the important factor in the design of the structures. Therefore, many suggestions were proposed and noted for determining method of the collapse load. Some of the methods from the suggestions have been commonly used due to the considerations on their distinctive advantages such as the compactness of the conceptions and the convenience in the computation. However, in case when the variation becomes huge in the materials and load, the results would carry(have or contain) many uncertain elements. On the other hand, load incremental method which regards the characteristics of the probability must be more attainable method even though it might complicate the calculation. This study intends to develop a finite element model that uses the probabilistic load incremental method to estimate the collapse load, and also to compare the result of the analysis with the linear load incremental method and Turkstra's Rule.

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Statistical Analysis for Path Break-Up Time of Mobile Wireless Networks (이동 무선망의 경로 붕괴시간에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Ahn, Hong-Young
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.113-118
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    • 2015
  • Mobile wireless networks have received a lot of attention as a future wireless network due to its rapid deployment without communication infrastructure. In these networks communication path between two arbitrary nodes break down because some links in the path are beyond transmission range($r_0$) due to the mobility of the nodes. The set of total path break down time(${\bigcup}T_i$), which is the union of path break down time of every node pair, can be a good measure of the connectivity of the dynamic mobile wireless network. In this paper we show that the distribution of the total path break down time can be approximated as a exponential probability density function and confirms it through experimental data. Statistical knowledge of break down time enables quantitative prediction of delay, packet loss between two nodes, thus provides confidence in the simulation results of mobile wireless networks.

Dynamic Instability of Strength-Limited Bilinear SDF Systems (강도한계 이선형 단자유도 시스템의 동적 불안정)

  • Han, Sang-Whan;Kim, Jong-Bo;Bae, Mun-Su;Moon, Ki-Hoon
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2008
  • This study investigates the dynamic instability of strength-limited bilinear single degree of freedom (SDF) systems under seismic excitation. The strength-limited bilinear hysteretic model best replicates the hysteretic behavior of the steel moment resisting frames. To estimate the dynamic instability of SDF systems, the collapse strength ratio is used, which is the yield-strength reduction factor when collapse occurs. Statistical studies are carried out to estimate median collapse strength ratios and those dispersions of strength-limited bilinear SDF systems with given natural periods, hardening stiffness ratios, post-capping stiffness ratios, ductility and damping ratios ranging from 2 to 20% subjected to 240 earthquake ground motions recorded on stiff soil sites. Equations to calculate median and standard deviation of collapse strength ratios in strength-limited bilinear SDF systems are obtained through nonlinear regression analysis. By using the proposed equations, this study estimated the probabilistic distribution of collapse strength ratios, and compared this with the exact values from which the accuracy of the proposed equations was verified.

Slope Stability Analysis Considering Multi Failure Mode (다중파괴모드를 고려한 사면안정해석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ki;Kim, Soo-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.24-30
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    • 2011
  • Conventional slope stability analysis is focused on calculating minimum factor of safety or maximum probability of failure. To minimize inherent uncertainty of soil properties and analytical model and to reflect various analytical models and its failure shape in slope stability analysis, slope stability analysis method considering simultaneous failure probability for multi failure mode was proposed. Linear programming recently introduced in system reliability analysis was used for calculation of simultaneous failure probability. System reliability analysis for various analytical models could be executed by this method. For application analysis for embankment, the results of this method shows that system stability of embankment calculate quantitatively.

The System Reliability Analysis of Web Frame by Plastic Strength Analysis (소성 강도 해석에 의한 Web Frame의 시스템 신뢰성 해석)

  • Y.S. Yang;S.J. Yim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 1991
  • Plastic strength analysis using plastic failure mode as a limit state is adopted instead of a conventional elastic structural analysis to predict the ultimate strength of Web frame idealized by a plane frame. Linear programming arid Compact procedure are developed for determining the collapse load factor. It is found that the final results are good agreement with the results of Elasto-plastic analysis. Besides, the redundant structures like Web frame is known to have multiple failure modes. Web frame may collapse under any of the possible failure modes. Thus, the identification of these possible failure modes is necessary and very important in the reliability analysis of Web frame. In order to deal with multiple failure modes, automatic generation method of all failure modes and basic failure modes is used for selecting the dominant failure modes. The probability of failure pastic collapse of Web frame is calculated using these dominant failure modes. The safety of Web frame is asscssed and compared by performing the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

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Development of Hydrologic Safety Evaluation System for Small Scale Reservoir (소규모저수지의 수문학적 안전성 평가기법 개발)

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Yang, Seung-Man;Kim, Seong-Joon;Kang, Boo-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.377-382
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    • 2010
  • 국내에는 약 14,000개의 중 소규모의 저수지들이 있다. 최근에 이상기후로 인한 많은 강우가 발생하여 저수지들의 월류나 파이핑으로 인한 붕괴가 지속적으로 일어나고 있어 많은 인명 및 재산피해가 발생하고 있다. 특히 설계홍수량을 초과하는 월류로 인한 댐 붕괴 발생 시 피해규모가 크기 때문에 전국적으로 본포되어 있는 저수지들의 설계홍수량을 시급히 파악하여 저수지의 수문학적 안전성을 판단하고 설계홍수량이 작은 저수지의 경우 별도로 관리 할 수 있어야 한다. 하지만 기존에 저수지의 안전여부를 판단 할 수 있는 댐 붕괴 모의의 경우 많은 시간과 노력이 요구 되어 저수지의 안전여부를 보다 쉽고 빠르게 판단 할 수 있는 기준 마련이 시급히 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 보다 쉽고 빠르게 소규모저수지의 수문학적 안전성 평가를 할 수 있는 간편법에 대하여 연구 하였다. 연구 방법은 HEC-HMS을 이용한 댐 붕괴와 본 연구에서 제시한 간편법을 통하여 홍수량의 비교 검토 및 저수지의 수문학적 안전성을 평가를 하였다. HEC-HMS의 첨두홍수량은 빈도별 지속시간별 확률강우량을 이용하여 산정하였으며, 가능최대홍수량(PMF)은 실제호우전이법으로 산정한 가능최대강수량(PMP)을 이용하였다. 간편법의 첨두홍수량은 합리식과 통합형 강우강도식을 이용하여 산정하였고, 가능최대홍수량(PMF)은 Creager공식을 이용하여 산1)정하였다. 댐 붕괴의 경우 HEC-HMS에서는 댐 붕괴 모듈을 실행하여 모의를 하였고, 간편법의 댐 붕괴는 여수로의 한계 유출을 파악할 수 있는 위어공식을 이용하여 댐 붕괴 모의를 하였다. 마지막으로 산정된 첨두홍수량과 가능최대홍수량(PMF)을 작성된 수문학적 안전성 평가표에 기입하여 비교 분석하였다. 연구결과 HEC-HMS로 산정한 빈도별 첨두홍수량 가능최대홍수량(PMF)과 간편법으로 구한 빈도별 첨두 홍수량 가능최대홍수량(PMF)의 차이는 약 편차가 50%정도로 간편법으로 구한 첨두홍수량 가능최대홍수량(PMF)이 더 크게 산정되었다. 편차의 발생 이유는 본 연구에서 제시한 간편법의 경우 안전율을 고려한 경험공식을 사용하였기 때문이라고 판단되며, 간편법을 통한 소규모저수지의 수문학적 안전성 평가를 다른 대상지역의 소규모저수지에도 적용하여 보고 수문학적 평가방법이 올바르게 적용 될 수 있는지 확인이 필요하다고 판단된다.

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Deep Learning Based Rescue Requesters Detection Algorithm for Physical Security in Disaster Sites (재난 현장 물리적 보안을 위한 딥러닝 기반 요구조자 탐지 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Da-hyeon;Park, Man-bok;Ahn, Jun-ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2022
  • If the inside of a building collapses due to a disaster such as fire, collapse, or natural disaster, the physical security inside the building is likely to become ineffective. Here, physical security is needed to minimize the human casualties and physical damages in the collapsed building. Therefore, this paper proposes an algorithm to minimize the damage in a disaster situation by fusing existing research that detects obstacles and collapsed areas in the building and a deep learning-based object detection algorithm that minimizes human casualties. The existing research uses a single camera to determine whether the corridor environment in which the robot is currently located has collapsed and detects obstacles that interfere with the search and rescue operation. Here, objects inside the collapsed building have irregular shapes due to the debris or collapse of the building, and they are classified and detected as obstacles. We also propose a method to detect rescue requesters-the most important resource in the disaster situation-and minimize human casualties. To this end, we collected open-source disaster images and image data of disaster situations and calculated the accuracy of detecting rescue requesters in disaster situations through various deep learning-based object detection algorithms. In this study, as a result of analyzing the algorithms that detect rescue requesters in disaster situations, we have found that the YOLOv4 algorithm has an accuracy of 0.94, proving that it is most suitable for use in actual disaster situations. This paper will be helpful for performing efficient search and rescue in disaster situations and achieving a high level of physical security, even in collapsed buildings.