• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.61-66
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• 2008

In railroad operation, turnout is the device designed to provide very critical functions of moving the train to the neighboring rail. It's the only movable section among the rail and track equipment, which has a complicated structure and as rapid movement between the wheel and rail during operation is unavoidable, the safety and the vibration caused by the impact load of the passing train becomes always the major concern. Response to rail vibration tends to vary depending on physical properties of the rail, rail base and the ground, making it difficult to estimate the quantitative outcome through the measurement. Thus, experimental or empirical approach, rather than an analytic method, has been more commonly employed to deal with the ground vibration. To predict the vibration of the turnout, an experimental value and the measured values are applied in parallel to the factors with a high degree of uncertainty. This study hence was intended to compare and analyze the vibration values measured at the crossing part of manganese turnout by type of train and turnout and distance, as well as predict the intensity of vibration generated at the crossing part of manganese turnout when tilting train accelerates.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.69-81
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• 2012

Diverse geostatistical tools such as kriging have been used to estimate the volume and spatial coverage of contaminated soil needed for remediation. However, many approaches frequently yield estimation errors, due to inherent geostatistical uncertainties. Such errors may yield over- or under-estimation of the amounts of polluted soils, which cause an over-estimation of remediation cost as well as an incomplete clean-up of a contaminated land. Therefore, it is very important to use a better estimation tool considering uncertainties arising from incomplete field investigation (i.e., contamination survey) and mathematical spatial estimation. In the current work, as better estimation tools we propose stochastic simulation approaches which allow the remediation volume to be assessed more accurately along with uncertainty estimation. To test the efficiency of proposed methods, heavy metals (esp., Pb) contaminated soil of a shooting range area was selected. In addition, we suggest a quantitative method to delineate the confident interval of estimated volume (and spatial extent) of polluted soil based on the spatial aspect of uncertainty. The methods proposed in this work can improve a better decision making on soil remediation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1913-1917
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• 2009

국제사회의 분위기와 더불어 국내에서도 에너지 자원의 지속적인 개발과 이용에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 그 중 수자원의 지속적인 확보와 개발은 가장 현실적이고 우선적인 문제로 인식되고 있으며 수자원확보/환경/개발 및 이용 등의 여러 분야에서 그간의 정량적 성과가 하나 둘씩 도출되어 적용 단계에 이르기도 하였다. 하지만 지하수의 경우 기초자료의 미흡과 불확실성, 함양량 및 개발가능량에 대한 산정기법의 적용성 문제, 체계화된 개발 및 이용에 대한 인식이 부족한 실정이다. 특히, 도시지역의 경우는 인구의 증가로 인하여 지하수이용량이 급격하게 증가하고 잠재적 지하수오염 가능성이 높아져 지하수환경의 악화를 초래하고 이로 인하여 하천 환경에도 영향을 미칠 수 있기 때문에 지하수개발가능량의 평가 및 체계적인 이용과 관리가 반드시 필요하나 지하수함양에 결정적인 영향을 미치는 토지피복상태가 지속적으로 변화하여 지하수함양량에도 매년 변화가 있으며 이에 따라 개발가능량도 변하고 있어 지하수 개발과 관리 및 이용에 많은 어려움을 겪고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 부산광역시 수영구 일대를 대상으로 도시화 현상으로 변화하는 토지피복상태를 분석하고 그 결과를 반영하여 1961년부터 2007년까지의 지하수함양량 및 함양률을 산정하였다. 연구대상지역의 토지피복상태는 1975년 이전까지는 시가화지역이 18.6%, 농업지역이 30.0%, 산림이 48.8%, 초지가 0.1%, 나지가 2.0%, 수역이 0.5%를 차지하고 있었으나 1980년${\sim}$1985년에 농업지역이 18.3% 감소하고 시가화지역이 15.0% 증가하는 큰 변화가 나타났으며 1995년${\sim}$2000년에도 농업지역이 5.5% 감소하고 시가화지역이 5.4% 증가하는 변화를 나타냈다. 전 연도에 걸쳐 산림지역과 초지, 나지, 수역에서의 변화는 크지 않았다. 연구대상지역의 평균 강우량은 1509.3mm이고 지하수평균함양량은 216.0mm이며 지하수평균함양률은 14.3%로 나타났다. 연최대함양량은 강우량이 2138.1mm인 1970년에 408.9mm이며 연최대함양률은 강우량이 1492.6mm인 1984년에 19.8%이다. 연최소함양량은 강우량이 901.5mm인 1988년에 71.9mm이며 연최소함양률은 같은해에 8.0%로 나타났다. 또한 연도의 증가에 따라 강우량은 증가하였으나 지하수함양량은 감소하는 경향을 나타내었다.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.1-6
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• 2018

In smart grid an accurate load forecasting is crucial in planning resources, which aids in improving its operation efficiency and reducing the dynamic uncertainties of energy systems. Research in this area has included the use of shallow neural networks and other machine learning techniques to solve this problem. Recent researches in the field of computer vision and speech recognition, have shown great promise for Deep Neural Networks (DNN). To improve the performance of daily electric peak load forecasting the paper presents a new deep neural network model which has the architecture of two multi-layer neural networks being serially connected. The proposed network model is progressively pre-learned layer by layer ahead of learning the whole network. For both one day and two day ahead peak load forecasting the proposed models are trained and tested using four years of hourly load data obtained from the Korea Power Exchange (KPX).

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.87-97
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• 1990

There is the need to balance safety, economy and serviceability in all phases of society problems. This is especially true in structural code formulation. where a framework is established by which practicing structural engineers can be assured of designing structures that reasonably meet the above three objectives. The existing design codes, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering experience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of loads and resistances and the basic reliability concepts. The purpose of the present study is therefore to develop the realistic reliability-based design criteria to secure adequate safety arid reliability, and to derive the models for partial and combined resistance factor formats. To this end, the reliability levels of our existing design code for concrete structures are first evaluated and the target reliabilities are determined, the new code formats are evolved from these target reliabilities. The present study indicates that the proposed formats exhibit relatively-uniform reliability and reasonably take into account the different material characteristics of concrete and steel in concrete structures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.274-277
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• 2006

The EAC(Estimate at Completion) among existing methods, which estimate cost and time effectively, help managers anticipate changeable several results at the point of $15{\sim}30%$ in the project progress. However, this method may cause such some problems as not to consider the periodically changing circumstances caused by construction risks or uncertainties which can affect the cost and time in the project, and to regard collected and accumulated data only as a single value when predicting the results on the progress. Accordingly, it is very difficult to accept the even small range of variability based on the anticipation of EAC. Consequently, the study focuses on the possibility methodology to anticipate time and cost accurately on the way to utilize EVMS(Earned Value Management System), and also suggest the way to perform the right estimation of EAC as considering various risks and uncertainties in construction projects.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.2
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• pp.91-99
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• 2016

To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.67-75
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• 2002

For the design of concrete structures in the serviceability limit state, the uniaxial static modulus of elasticity may be a most important parameter. In particular, this may be so just for a deflection control of the structure. Even in new concrete codes, however, the elastic modulus is normally presented on the form of general empirical relationships with the compressive strength and density of concrete. Normally, there is a large uncertainty associated with the general equations obtained by regression. Thus, in a typical plot of static modulus of elasticity vs. compressive strength, a large scatter can be observed at same strength. The aim of this study is to present the method for obtain the maximum modulus of elasticity at same compressive strength. In the present paper report the effects of mix ingredients on the modulus of elasticity of high-strength concrete. The test of 284 cylinder specimens arc conducted for type I with 11 ％ replacement of fly-ash cement concretes. Different water-hinder ratio, amounts of water and coarse aggregate as variables were investigated. And also analyzed it statistically by using SAS.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.325-331
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• 2016

This research developed a flood fragility curve of bridges considering the debris impacts. Damage and failures of civil infrastructure due to natural disasters can cause casualties as well as social and economic losses. Fragility analysis is an effective tool to help better understand the vulnerability of a structure to possible extreme events, such as earthquakes and floods. In particular, flood-induced failures of bridges are relatively common in Korea, because of the mountainous regions and summer concentrated rainfall. The main failure reasons during floods are reported to be debris impact and scour; however, research regarding debris impacts is considered challenging due to various uncertainties that affect the failure probability. This study introduces a fragility analysis methodology for evaluating the structural vulnerability due to debris impacts during floods. The proposed method describes how the essential components in fragility analysis are considered, including limit-state function, intensity measure of the debris impact, and finite element model. A numerical example of the proposed fragility analysis is presented using a bridge pier system under a debris impact.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.470-470
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• 2012

우수관거 시스템에서의 신뢰도 분석에 대한 기존 연구들은 시스템의 설계상에서의 각종 매개변수들에 대한 불확실성 분석에 기초하여 왔다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 동일한 설계빈도하에 설계된 우수관망이라 하더라도 관망의 노선 선정에 따라서 유출구에서의 첨두유출량 및 초과강우사상에 따른 침수 발생량이 달라질 수 있다는 점에 주목하였다. 그러므로 신뢰도 높은 우수관망을 설계하기 위해서는 이러한 침수 발생 확률을 줄일 수 있도록 하여야 하며, 이를 위해서는 관망 구성에 따라 달라지는 신뢰도를 하나의 정량화된 수치로 나타야 한다. 본 연구에서는 설계빈도를 초과하는 강우사상들에 대하여 해당 우수관망의 월류 발생 정도를 정량적으로 평가함으로써 상대적인 신뢰도를 하나의 지표로서 나타내고자 하였다. 이때 고려되는 것은 초과강우사상 발생 시 해당 관망에서의 월류 발생량 및 월류 발생 지점 개수이다. 또한 이때 고려 대상이 되는 월류량 및 월류 발생지점 수는 서로 다른 척도를 갖는 항목이므로 이에 대한 종합적인 고려를 위하여 본 연구에서는 다기준의사결정기법 중 하나인 DMM(Distance Measure Method)을 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 우수관망 신뢰도의 산정 절차는 다음과 같다. step 1) 초과빈도별 월류 발생량 및 월류 발생 지점 수 산정 step 2) 빈도별 월류발생량 비율( ) 및 월류발생지점 비율($N_i$) 산정 $$V_i$$ $$V_o/V/R$$ $$N_i=N_o/N_T/R$$ 여기서, $V_i$는 적용된 강우량당 유역의 전체 유출량 대비 월류발생량을 나타내며, $N_i$는 적용된 강우량당 해당 관망의 전체 지점 수 대비 월류 발생지점 수를 나타낸다. step 3) 중심점(central point)에 대하여 DMM을 이용한 치수안전성 산정 $$Reliability\;of\;Sewer\;Networks=1-\;{(1-N_i)^2+(1-V_i)^2\atop2}$$.