• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실 평가 기법

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A Study on the Evaluation of Environmental Load Based on LCA Using BIM - Focused on the Case of NATM Tunnel - (BIM을 활용한 LCA기반 환경부하평가에 관한 연구 - NATM 터널 사례 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Yang-Kyoo;Han, Jung-Geun;Kwon, Suk-Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.477-485
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    • 2018
  • To control manage environmental load during construction work, it is required to ascertain an accurate quantity for materials those are using during the construction. In construction industrial nowadays, especially on design part, there are lots of mistakes occurred on quantity take-off between plan documents and actual work. That mistakes are caused by omission of design items, overcount because of interference each materials or simple calculate error. Besides, in case of a construction project, engineers are impossible to design perfectly due to a lot of invalid variable in a construction site. Thus, design errors and changes occur frequently in the process of construction work or design due to such unclear elements. And in case of LCA assessment based on 2D design, there is difficult for an engineer who is in charge to calculate the volume of materials manually using drawings and relevant specifications. This study is aimed for examining and verifying a high reliable method of evaluating environmental load which is useful in construction process through comparing LCA analysis. In addition, this study provides the method of calculating the volume of materials and LCA assessment in working on the basis of 2D design, using the specifications which is used for LCA evaluation, and possibility of utilizing the LCA assessment by introducing BIM design technic to improve the former problem through comparing and analyzing the previous method with 3D-based evaluation process.

Development of Traffic Conflict Technique with Fuzzy Reasoning Theory (퍼지추론을 적용한 교통상충기법(TCT) 개발)

  • ;;;今田寬典
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2002
  • It has been known well that Traffic Conflict Technique(TCT) used to evaluate the safety of intersections in the case of shortage of traffic accidents data and surveying time. Because data for using in traffic conflict technique that is collected by trained surveyors, it is rely on the knowledge, experience and the characteristics of them. The data of surveying generate varying result. So, its variance must minimize and then it is considered of calculating in traffic conflict technique however obviously technique to minimize has not developed until now. So, this paper has a focus on the technical method to minimize the variance. For this, it applied the fuzzy reasoning theory to the existed traffic conflict technique that is the most comprehensive method in the country and then developed the new traffic conflict technique model. Fuzzy reasoning theory is a very appropriate method for minimizing the variance among surveyors because it can systematically calculate the uncertainty of surveyors by approximation reasoning structure. The result of analysis from pilot study, the new Procedure in this Paper minimized the variance by 53 Percentiles and it increased the value of conversion factor two times than the exited traffic conflict technique. The method proposed in this paper, it can be used for evaluating the safety of intersection, and before and after analysis of improving Project of black spots.

A study of Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making for optimal flood defense measures considering regional characteristic (지역특성을 고려한 홍수방어대안 제시를 위한 공간 다기준의사결정 기법 적용 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Eunkyung;Ji, Jungwon;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.301-311
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the flood inundation caused by heavy rainfall in urban area is increasing due to global warming. The variability of climate change is described in the IPCC 5th report (2014). The precipitation pattern and hydrological system is varied by climate change. Since the heavy rainfall surpassed the design capacity of the pipeline, it caused great damage in metropolitan cities such as Seoul and Busan. Inundation in urban area is primarily caused by insufficient sewer capacity and surplus overflow of river. Inundation in urban area with concentrated population is more dangerous than rural and mountains areas, because it is accompanied by human casualties as well as socio-economic damage to recover destruction of roads, brides and underground spaces. In addition, various factors such as an increase in impervious area, a short time of concentration to outlet, and a shortage of sewer capacity's lack increase flooding damage. In this study, flood inundation analysis was conducted for vulnerable areas using XP-SWMM. Also, three structural flood prevention measures such as drainage pipeline construction, detention reservoir construction, and flood pumping station construction are applied as flood damage prevention alternatives. The flood data for each alternative were extracted by dividing the basin by grid. The Spatial Compromise Programming are applied using flood assessment criteria, such as maximum inundation depth, inundation time, and construction cost. The purpose of this study is to reflect the preference of alternatives according to geographical condition even in the same watershed and to select flood defense alternative considering regional characteristics.

Evaluation of Available Water Resources of Soyang Reservoir and Chungju Reservoir according to Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소양강댐과 충주댐의 가용수자원 평가)

  • Choi, Sung-Gyu;Yi, Jae-Eung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.147-151
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    • 2007
  • 인위적인 온실가스 증가의 영향으로 지구의 기온이 상승하고 있으며, 우리나라에서도 이러한 전 지구적인 온난화 추세를 상회하는 경향을 보이고 있다. 20세기 후반부터 기후변화에 따른 강수량 및 집중호우의 증가 추세가 보고되고 있으며, 이에 따른 피해 또한 증가하고 있다. 이러한 이상기후 현상이 전 세계적으로 빈번히 발생하여 가용 수자원의 변동이 커지고 있다. 추가적인 댐 건설이 어려운 상황이고, 댐 운영의 불확실성에 의한 현실적인 운영의 어려움으로 인하여 보수적인 댐 운영이 이루어지고 있는 실정이므로, 한정된 수자원의 효율적인 이용과 예측이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상연구소에서 개발된 A2, B2 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 다목적댐에서의 용수공급능력의 변화에 대한 평가를 수행하였다. 대규모 유역의 대표적인 다목적댐을 선정하고 기후변화 시나리오별 유입량을 분석하였으며, 이를 저수지 모의운영 기법을 이용하여 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 각 댐의 신뢰도 95% 용수공급능력과 예상발전량을 산정함으로써 가용수자원을 평가하였다. 또한 다목적댐의 과거 실적 유입량 자료를 이용한 모의운영 결과와 비교하여 제시하였다. 과거 실적에 의한 결과와 비교할 때, 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 향후 국내 가용 수자원량에도 큰 변화가 있을 것으로 예측되었다. 이로부터 댐 운영에 있어서 홍수기의 안정적인 댐관리와 갈수기의 적절한 수자원 분배를 위한 방향을 제시할 수 있다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 기후변화에 따른 저수지의 효율적인 운영을 위한 유역의 수자원 영향 평가에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.댐의 순기능에 대한 정량적인 분석을 수행하였다. 또한 댐별 방류량을 변동하여 하류 주요지점에 미치는 유황개선효과를 정량화하였다. 마지막으로 댐의 효율을 최대화한 하류확보가능하천유지유량을 월별평균량으로 산정하였다. 이는 향후 오염총량제 기준유량 및 환경용수의 법제화를 통한 하천유지용수의 증가시 비구조적 대책의 공급가능 최대량으로 활용가능할 것으로 사료된다.원에서 인위적으로 방류한 양이 많았기 때문으로 추정할 수 있다. 두 지점의 1월 유출이 100 % 이상인 것은 동절기 하천 결빙으로 인한 유량파악이 힘든 것으로 나타났다. 1월의 하천수위는 계측기에 기록된 수위값으로 유량을 산정한 것이다. 3월, 10월, 12월의 유출이 많은 것은 전월말 발생한 강우의 영향으로 크게 나타났다.다. 5. 초장의 절대치는 품종간에 차이는 있으나 비교적 조파구간에는 초장에 큰 변이가 없었고 파종기가 늦어짐에 따라 짧아졌다. 초장의 신장속도는 파종기가 늦어짐에 따라 현저하게 빨라지고 특히 조생종이 만생종보다 더욱 가속적인 경향이었다. 따라서 최고초장과 최저초장과의 절대치의 차이는 조생종일수록 적고 만생종일수록 큰 격차를 보이었다. 6. 간직경에 있어서도 만생종은 일반적으로 조기파종할수록 굵고, 조생종과 중생종은 4월 25일 파종기가 가장 굵은 편이며 이보다 파종기가 지연 가늘어지는 경향이었다. 7. 간중은 품종의 조만생에 따라 약간의 차이는 있으나 대체로 적기(4월 25일~5월 15일)보다 조기 혹은 만기 파종하면 작아지나 파종기 이동에 따른 간중의 변화는 품종의 조만성에 따라 양상을 달리하여 조생종은

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Reliability-Based Assessment of Structural Safety of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge Erected by the FCM and FSM during Construction (FCM과 FSM공법에 의한 강-콘크리트 복합사장교의 신뢰성에 기초한 시공간 구조안전도평가)

  • Yoon, Jung Hyun;Cho, Hyo Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the models and methods for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge, which consists of steel composite girder and concrete girder erected by the FCM(Free Cantilever Method) and FSM(Full Staging Method) are proposed for the assurance of structural safety and the prevention against bridge collapse during construction. By the structural reliability approach that reasonably considers the uncertainties associated with the resistance and the load effect, the resistance and the load distribution characteristics of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridgeare defined and the strength limit state equations of permanent structures and temporary structures during construction are suggested. An AFOSM algorithm and MCS technique are used for the reliability analysis of cables, pylons, girders, steel-concrete conjunction part and temporary bents. Also, component reliability analyses are performed at the construction stages based on the structural system model. To demonstrate their rationality and practicality, the proposed models and approaches are applied to a real bridge. The sensitivity analyses of main parameters are performed in order to identify the critical factors that control the safety of similar bridges. As a result, it may be stated that the proposed models could be implemented as a rational and practical approach for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-stayed bridges erected by FCM and FSM during construction.

Seismic Fragility Assessment of Liquid Storage Tanks by Finite Element Reliability Analysis (유한요소 신뢰성 해석을 통한 액체저장탱크의 지진 취약도 평가)

  • Lee, Sangmok;Lee, Young-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.718-725
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    • 2017
  • A liquid storage tank is one of the most important structures in industrial complexes dealing with chemicals, and its structural damage due to an earthquake may cause a disastrous event such as the leakage of hazardous materials, fire, and explosion. It is thus essential to assess the seismic fragility of liquid storage tanks and prepare for seismic events in advance. When a liquid storage tank is oscillated by a seismic load, the hydrodynamic pressure caused by the liquid-structure interaction increases the stress and causes structural damage to the tank. Meanwhile, the seismic fragility of the structure can be estimated by considering the various sources of uncertainty and calculating the failure probabilities in a given limiting state. To accurately evaluate the seismic fragility of liquid storage tanks, a sophisticated finite element analysis is required during their reliability analysis. Therefore, in this study, FERUM-ABAQUS, a recently-developed computational platform integrated with commercial finite element and reliability analysis software packages, is introduced to perform the finite element reliability analysis and calculate the failure probability of a liquid storage tank subjected to a seismic load. FERUM-ABAUS allows for automatic data exchange between these two software packages and for the efficient seismic fragility assessment of a structure. Using this computational platform, the seismic fragility curve of a liquid storage tank is successfully obtained.

Simulation of dam inflow using a square grid and physically based distributed model (격자 기반의 물리적 분포형 모형을 이용한 댐 유입량 모의)

  • Choi, Yun Seok;Choi, Si Jung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.289-300
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the GRM (Grid based rainfall-Runoff Model) to the continuous simulation by simulating the dam inflow. The GRM was previously developed for the simulation of rainfall-runoff events but has recently been improved to enable continuous simulation. The target watersheds are Chungju dam, Andong dam, Yongdam dam, and Sumjingang dam basins, and runoff models were constructed with the spatial resolution of 500 m × 500 m. The simulation period is 21 years (2001 to 2021). The simulation results were evaluated over the 17 year period (2005 to 2021), and were divided into three data periods: total duration, wet season (June to September), and dry season (October to May), and compared with the observed daily inflow of each dam. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), correlation coefficient (CC), and total volume error (VE) were used to evaluate the fitness of the simulation results. As a result of evaluating the simulated dam inflow, the observed data could be well reproduced in the total duration and wet season, and the dry season also showed good simulation results considering the uncertainty of low-flow data. As a result of the study, it was found that the continuous simulation technique of the GRM model was properly implemented and the model was sufficiently applicable to the simulation of dam inflow in this study.

A comparison of weight on SWOT factors of hidden champion between Korea and Germany (한독 히든챔피언 간의 SWOT요인 중요도 비교)

  • Lee, Sang Suk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2016
  • The object of this study identifies the weights of SWOT factors in hidden champion. And the other purpose of the study is to test the differences of weight between Korea hidden champion group and Germany theirs group. The survey research is employed for the hidden champion CEOs of two countries. This research is employed the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) for the weight of SWOT factors in hidden champion based on an empirical survey done to 61 firms which are to be fostered as Korean type hidden champion and 40 firms which are to be fostered as Germany type hidden champion. And then the t-test assesses whether the weight means of two groups are statistically different from each other. The weights of SWOT factors of hidden champion have been identified. There are the differences of weight between Korea group and Germany group. The order of Korea group's weight is following by the strength (0.3062), the opportunities (0.2344), the threat (0.1804), and the weakness (0.1157). The order of Germany group's weight is following by the strength (0.2603), the opportunities (0.2286), the threat (0.1604), and the weakness (0.1432). The technology capability of strength, the lack of knowledge on overseas market of weakness and the market uncertainty of thereat have statistically differences between two groups. However, the sub-factors of opportunities statistically have no differences.

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Flood Inflow Estimation at Large Multipurpose Dam using Distributed Model with Measured Flow Boundary Condition at Direct Upstream Channels (직상류 계측유량경계조건과 분포형모델을 이용한 대규모 다목적댐 홍수유입량 산정)

  • Hong, Sug-Hyeon;Kang, Boosik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.1039-1049
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    • 2015
  • The inflow estimation at large multipurpose dam reservoir is carried out by considering the water balance among the discharge, the storage change during unit time interval obtained from the observed water level near dam structure and area-volume curve. This method can be ideal for level pool reservoir but include potential errors when the inflow is influenced by the water level slope due to backwater effects from upstream flood inflows and strong wind induced by typhoon. In addition, the other uncertainties arisen from the storage reduction due to sedimentation after the dam construction and water level noise due to mechanical vibration transmitted from the electric power generator. These uncertainties impedes the accurate hydraulic inflow measurement requiring exquisite hydrometric data arrangement for reservoir waterbody. In this study, the distributed hydrologic model using UBC-3P boundary setting was applied and its feasibility was evaluated. Finally, the modeling performance has been verified since the calculated determination coefficient has been in between 0.96 to 0.99 after comparing with observed peak inflow and total inflow at Namgang dam reservoir.

Utility of Climate Model Information For Water Resources Management in Korea

  • Jeong, Chang-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that conditions of water resources will be changed in Korea in accordance with world wide climate change. In order to deal with this problem and find a way of minimizing the effect of future climate change, the usefulness of climate model simulation information is examined in this study. The objective of this study is to assess the applicability of GCM (General Circulation Model) information for Korean water resources management through uncertainty analysis. The methods are based on probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of GCM simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable. The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. An estimator that accounts for climate model simulation and spatial association between the GCM data and observed data is used. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations done by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) with a resolution of $2^{\circ}{\times}2^{\circ}$, and METRI (Meteorological Research Institute, Korea) with resolutions of $2^{\circ}{\times}2^{\circ}$ and $4^{\circ}{\times}5^{\circ}$, were used for indicator variables, while observed mean areal precipitation (MAP) data, discharge data and mean areal temperature data on the seven major river basins in Korea were used for target variables. The results show that GCM simulations are useful in discriminating the high from the low of the observed precipitation, discharge, and temperature values. Temperature especially can be useful regardless of model and season.