• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한 정보

Search Result 1,260, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.69-89
    • /
    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods (기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.53 no.9
    • /
    • pp.701-715
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.

Multinational Enforcement of the Capital Markets Act - Focusing on the Anti-Fraud Regulation by the Public Regulators - (다국적 차원의 자본시장법규 집행 - 공적기관에 의한 불공정거래 규제를 중심으로 -)

  • Chang, Kun-Young
    • Journal of Legislation Research
    • /
    • no.53
    • /
    • pp.419-454
    • /
    • 2017
  • Faced with the internationalization of capital markets, Korea needs to protect its investors and markets by applying the relevant laws extraterritorially. The Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act ("Capital Markets Act") explicitly introduced a new provision recognizing the extraterritoriality of the Act. While Article 2 of the Capital Markets Act comprehensively provides for prescriptive extraterritorial jurisdiction, the enactment of extraterritoriality alone does not guarantee that the Act will apply to cross-border transactions effectively. The effective extraterritorial application of an act is inseparable from the adjudicative and enforcement jurisdiction of the act. Specifically, active investigations and detections by the public regulators might be the first step for enforcing the Capital Markets Act. Unlike domestic regulations, however, multinational enforcement actions outside a regulator's home country becomes more problematic because of various obstacles. This Article examines difficulties which domestic regulators may confront in enforcing the Capital Markets Act extraterritorially and makes several recommendations for more effective multinational enforcement as follows. First, the Korean regulators should continue to foster cooperation through the IOSCO and provide international markets with the information and tools necessary for successful regulation of cross-border transactions. Second, the principle of dual criminality should be applied in a modified form for the effective mutual legal assistance in criminal matters. Third, there should be a legal device for the domestic regulator to freeze foreign wrongdoer's assets located outside Korea to repatriate those assets for distribution to defrauded investors in Korea.

An Analysis of the Dynamics between Media Coverage and Stock Market on Digital New Deal Policy: Focusing on Companies Related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (디지털 뉴딜 정책에 대한 언론 보도량과 주식 시장의 동태적 관계 분석: 4차산업혁명 관련 기업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.33-53
    • /
    • 2021
  • In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.

Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Researches Related to Health in South Korea (한국의 건강 분야 기후변화적응 연구동향 분석)

  • Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.139-151
    • /
    • 2014
  • It is increasingly supported by scientific evidence that greenhouse gas caused by human activities is changing the global climate. In particular, the changing climate has affected human health, directly or indirectly, and its adverse impacts are estimated to increase in the future. In response, many countries have established and implemented a variety of mitigation and adaptation measures. However, it is significant to note that climate change will continue over the next few centuries and its impacts on human health should be tackled urgently. The purpose of this paper is to examine domestic policies and research in health sector in adaptation to climate change. It further aims to recommend future research directions for enhanced response to climate change in public health sector, by reviewing a series of adaptation policies in the selected countries and taking into account the general features of health adaptation policies. In this regard, this study first evaluates the current adaptation policies in public health sector by examining the National Climate Change Adaptation Master Plan(2011~2015) and Comprehensive Plan for Environment and Health(2011~2020) and reviewing research to date of the government and relevant institutions. For the literature review, two information service systems are used: namely, the National Science and Technology Information Service(NTIS) and the Policy Research Information Service & Management(PRISM). Secondly, a series of foreign adaptation policies are selected based on the global research priorities set by WHO (2009) and reviewed in order to draw implications for domestic research. Finally, the barriers or constraints in establishing and implementing health adaptation policies are analyzed qualitatively, considering the general characteristics of adaptation in the health sector to climate change, which include uncertainty, finance, technology, institutions, and public awareness. This study provides four major recommendations: to mainstream health sector in the field of adaptation policy and research; to integrate cross-sectoral adaptation measures with an aim to the improvement of health and well-being of the society; to enhance the adaptation measures based on evidence and cost-effectiveness analysis; and to facilitate systemization in health adaptation through setting the key players and the agenda.

Social Anxiety in Korean Society (한국 사회의 사회적 불안에 관한 연구)

  • Young-Oh Hong;Kwan-Jae Song;Su Ae Park;Hyejin Lee;Jae Chang Lee
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.129-160
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purposes of this study were to find 1) the realities of social anxiety and perception of various kinds of social problems that exists in Korean society as well as the perception on the events that causes the social anxiety, 2) to see the difference of perceived level of social anxiety through variables of social demography and difference of perception on Korean society. The sample was distributed according to population size distinguishing the nation to 6 regions. The data of 1,375 adult respondents were analysed. The results are as follows. First of all, respondents mentioned that the most immediate problem to be solved in Korean society was financial anxiety, and the most desirable state of society was when the society is financially stabled. Single question was measured about social anxiety of Korean society and scored 6.84 from full marks of 10, showing difference in variables for instance sex, age, and subjective S.E.S. where women, aged under 20, and perceived low class group showed the highest rate of social anxiety. However, there weren't any difference found in social anxiety of the variables like presence of religion, educational background, residence, and monthly average household income. Also, there were differences in level of social anxiety according to the difference of perception of Korean society. Higher the perceived unpredictability, uncontrollability, and unmovability to the upper class, unfairness, and uncertainty, unreliability of the Korean society, higher the social anxiety. And the lower the perceived chance of success of reformation, higher the social anxiety. It was also found that the perceived social anxiety is influenced by social accidents and phenomenon as unemployment, economic depression, and the gap between rich and poor as well as the increase of crime through effluence of personal information. Finally the limitations and implications of this study were discussed.

An Empirical Analysis of Accelerator Investment Determinants: A Longitudinal Study on Investment Determinants and Investment Performance (액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 실증 분석: 투자결정요인과 투자성과에 대한 종단 연구)

  • Jin Young Joo;Jeong Min Nam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-20
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study attempted to identify the relationship between the investment determinants of accelerators and investment performance through empirical analysis. Through literature review, four dimensions and 12 measurement items were extracted for investment determinants, which are independent variables, and investment performance was adjusted to the cumulative amount of subsequent investment based on previous studies. Performance data from 594 companies selected by TIPS from 2017 to 2019, which are relatively reliable and easy to secure data, were collected, and the subsequent investment cumulative attraction amount, which is a dependent variable, was hypothesized through multiple regression analysis three years after the investment. As a result of the study, 'industrial experience years' in the characteristics of founders, 'market size', 'market growth', 'competitive strength', and 'number of patents' in the characteristics of products and services had a significant positive (+) effect. The impact of independent variables on dependent variables was most influenced by the competitive strength of market characteristics, followed by the number of years of industrial experience, the number of patents, the size of the market, and market growth. This was different from the results of previous studies conducted mainly on qualitative research methods, and in most previous studies, the characteristics of founders were the most important, but the empirical analysis results were market characteristics. As a sub-factor, the intensity of competition, which was the subordinate to the importance of previous studies, had the greatest influence in empirical analysis. The academic significance of this study is that it presented a specific methodology to collect and build 594 empirical samples in the absence of empirical research on accelerator investment determinants, and created an opportunity to expand the theoretical discussion of investment determinants through causal research. In practice, the information asymmetry and uncertainty of startups that accelerators have can help them make effective investment decisions by establishing a systematic model of experience-dependent investment determinants.

  • PDF

SSP Climate Change Scenarios with 1km Resolution Over Korean Peninsula for Agricultural Uses (농업분야 활용을 위한 한반도 1km 격자형 SSP 기후변화 시나리오)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-30
    • /
    • 2024
  • The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.

An Analysis of the Imported Consumer Goods Distribution Sector of Korea: From a Vertical Structure Viewpoint (수입소비재(輸入消費財) 유통구조(流通構造)의 효율화(效率化) 방안(方案))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.3-33
    • /
    • 1991
  • Since the early 1980's, the Korean government has gradually been widening the Korean market to foreign consumer goods. This, combined with the increased purchasing power of the Korean consumers resulting from the continued economic growth of the country, has sparked a spectacular influx of foreign consumer goods into Korea, ranging from BMW's to chopsticks. Import of foreign consumer goods amounted to more than 6 billion dollars in 1989 and is continuing to grow at a rapid rate. The increased import of foreign consumer goods doubtlessly improved the overall welfare of the Korean consumers by providing them with a wider range of options to choose from, by lowering the prices of some of the consumer goods domestically produced, and also by forcing the producers of some Korean goods to face competition with better foreign goods, thus giving them an incentive to raise the quality of their products. However, it is agreed by most economists that this increase in general welfare has been much smaller than what they had expected at the outset. Consumer prices of most imported consumer goods are easily double the import price, and in some cases, more than treble the import prices. Further, there has not been a noticeable drop in the prices of domestically produced consumer goods. Much of the blame has been attributed to the distribution sector of Korea. The objective of this paper is to analyze the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea, focusing on the possible sources of the poor performance of that sector, and to make policy suggestions that could potentially increase the welfare. This paper differs from all the previous research by others on this subject in that it analyzes the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea as a vertical structure. The distribution sector of an imported consumer good is a vertical structure since it consists of an international market, an import stage, and domestic wholesale and retail markets, in that order vertically. Our study naturally includes the analysis of the vertical restraints as well as the analysis of the industrial organization of each horizontal stage in the vertical structure. Each horizontal component of the imported consumer goods distribution sector is basically a monopolistically competitive market differentiated by characteristics of goods and by the locations and the services of firms. Further, restrictive dealership and resale price maintenance are found to be widely in use. Our main findings are the follwing; First, most consumer goods are imported monopolistically or oligopolistically through restrictive dealership contracts between foreign producers and domestic importers. Such restrictive dealership gives importers market power in the domestic market and explains many of the large discrepancies betwen the consumer prices and the import prices of many goods. Korean anti - trust law does not cover the issues arising from the market power of an importer resulting from a restrictive dealership contract. Second, some major producers of Korean goods are also importers of foreign goods that are substitutes of their products. The import of substitutes by major domestic producers is anti - competitive because it tends to raise the prices of both domestic goods and foreign goods, and also because it reduces the incentive of the domestic producers to raise the quality of their products. Third, wholesalers and retailers widely use resale price maintenance as a price fixing mechanism, and while this is against the anti- trust law, it seldom gets noticed. Fourth, the high level of rents of real estate for commercial use works as an entry barrier to the distribution sector and results in reduced competition by the firms in that sector. Finally, there are information problems. Consumers have inferior information to firms about the quality of a foreign consumer good that they have not tried before. Such information asymmetry often enables firms to raise prices. In addition, information asymmetry between importers frequently delays the import of cheaper substitutes. In order to alleviate the problems indentified above, we suggest the following policy changes. The government should strengthen the anti - trust law and its enforcement to regulate restrictive import contracts, import of competing goods by major domestic producers, and RPM by wholesalers and retailers that is aimed at price fixing. In addition, the government should loosen its tight real estate policy to encourage investment in the distribution sector. Finally, we suggest that the import price revelation policy that has been in use for some items since 1990 be expanded to most imported consumer goods that are introduced for the first time to give consumer better information and be used only for the period of time needed to inform sufficient number of consumers.

  • PDF

Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.77-97
    • /
    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.