• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성평가

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Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

Usefulness of Interferon-$\gamma$ Measurement Following Stimulation of Tuberculosis-specific Antigens for Diagnosis of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Children Exposed to Pulmonary Tuberculosis (폐결핵 접촉력을 가진 소아에서 잠복 결핵 감염의 진단을 위한 결핵 특이항원 자극 인터페론-감마 측정의 유용성)

  • Sung, Ji Yeon;Ki, Joo Hwa;Yang, Mi Ae;Kim, So Hee;Eun, Byung Wook;Kim, Nam Hee;Park, Kyoung Un;Lee, Jina;Choi, Eun Hwa;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Whole blood interferon-$\gamma$ assay was developed and many studies showed its usefulness in diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) including latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). However, assessment in children has been limited. This study was undertaken to evaluate the usefulness of QuantiFERON-TB Gold for the diagnosis of LTBI in children exposed to pulmonary TB. Methods : Children who visited Seoul National University Bundang Hospital with a history of TB exposure were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2007. They were evaluated with chest x-rays, tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold test. TST was retested 3 months later for those with initial negative reactivity. Definition of LTBI was made on the basis of the TST reactivity. Results : Among the 103 children with a history of TB exposure, 49 children were tested with chest x-ray, TST, and QuantiFERON-TB Gold. Twenty-two were males. Median age was 7.5 years (range; 3 months to 14.7 years). According to TST reactivity, LTBI was in 8 (19%), no infection was in 21 (50%), possible LTBI was in 13 (31%). QuantiFERON-TB Gold test was positive in 5 of the 49 subjects (10%); 3 of the 13 subjects (23.1%) in unknown status, 1 of the 8 subjects (13%) in LTBI, and 1 of the 21 subjects (5%) without infection. The agreement between the QuantiFERON-TB Gold and the TST was poor (${\kappa}=0.101$). Conclusion : QuantiFERON-TB Gold showed poor sensitivity for the diagnosis of LTBI in children with exposure to TB. QuantiFERON-TB Gold alone does not seem to be useful in the diagnosis of LTBI in children.

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AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE TENSILE STRENGTH OF POSTERIOR RESIN-BASED COMPOSITES (구치부 복합레진의 인장강도에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Gon;Lee, Yong-Hee;Yang, Cheol-Hee;Baik, Byeong-Ju
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.464-470
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the tensile strength of light-cured restorative posterior resin-based composites. Five commercially available light-cured composites(Denfil : DF, P60 : PS, Unifil S : US, Z100 : ZH, Z250 : ZT) were used. Rectangular tension test specimens were fabricated in a teflon mold giving 5mm in gauge length and 2mm in thickness. Specimens were subjected to the 5,000 thermal cycles between $5^{\circ}C$ and $55^{\circ}C$ and the immersion time in each bath was 15 second per cycle. Tensile testing was carried out with Instron at a crosshead speed of 0.5mm/min and fractured surface were observed with scanning electron microscope. The obtained results were summarized as follows; 1. The tensile strength of PS was highest. PS was significantly higher than DF, US and ZH(p<0.05) but in the case of ZT was similar to PS(p>0.05). 2. The tensile strength DF was lowest. DF was significantly lower than PS, US, ZH and ZT(p<0.05). 3. The tensile strength of US and ZH were significantly lower than PS and ZT(p<0.05). but were significantly higher than DF(p<0.05). The tensile strength of US and ZH were similar(p>0.05).

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Comparison of Natural Flow Estimates for the Han River Basin Using TANK and SWAT Models (TANK 모형과 SWAT 모형을 이용한 한강유역의 자연유출량 산정 비교)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Kim, Nam-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.301-316
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    • 2012
  • Two models, TANK and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were compared for simulating natural flows in the Paldang Dam upstream areas of the Han River basin in order to understand the limitations of TANK and to review the applicability and capability of SWAT. For comparison, simulation results from the previous research work were used. In the results for the calibrated watersheds (Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam), two models provided promising results for forecasting of daily flows with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of around 0.8. TANK simulated observations during some peak flood seasons better than SWAT, while it showed poor results during dry seasons, especially its simulations did not fall down under a certain value. It can be explained that TANK was calibrated for relatively larger flows than smaller ones. SWAT results showed a relatively good agreement with observed flows except some flood flows, and simulated inflows at the Paldang Dam considering discharges from upper dams coincided with observations with the model efficiency of around 0.9. This accounts for SWAT applicability with higher accuracy in predicting natural flows without dam operation or artificial water uses, and in assessing flow variations before and after dam development. Also, two model results were compared for other watersheds such as Pyeongchang-A, Dalcheon-B, Seomgang-B, Inbuk-A, Hangang-D, and Hongcheon-A to which calibrated TANK parameters were applied. The results were similar to the case of calibrated watersheds, that TANK simulated poor smaller flows except some flood flows and had same problem of keeping on over a certain value in dry seasons. This indicates that TANK application may have fatal uncertainties in estimating low flows used as an important index in water resources planning and management. Therefore, in order to reflect actually complex and complicated physical characteristics of Korean watersheds, and to manage efficiently water resources according to the land use and water use changes with urbanization or climate change in the future, it is necessary to utilize a physically based watershed model like SWAT rather than an existing conceptual lumped model like TANK.

Standardization and Reliability and Validity of the Korean Edition of Profile of Mood States(K-POMS) (한국판 기분상태척도(K-POMS)의 표준화와 신뢰도와 타당도 평가)

  • Kim, Eui-Joong;Lee, Sang-Ick;Jeong, Do-Un;Shin, Min-Sup;Yoon, In-Young
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The Profile of Mood States (POMS) has been used broadly and frequently in various medical studies with various subjects. For the development and application of the Korean edition of POMS, called K-POMS, we translated POMS into Korean and then evaluated the reliability and validity of K-POMS. Methods: The subjects were 161 male students with a mean age of 18.1 years (15-30) and 244 female students with a mean age of 16.6 years (14-23). They were requested to perform K-POMS and SCL-90-R (Korean version) at the same time. Means, reliability coefficients, and test-retest correlations of K-POMS were calculated. Content validities, correlations with SCL-90-R, and discrimination validities in comparison with 76 depressive patients were obtained, and factor analyses were carried out. Results: Mean scores of Total Mood Disturbance (TMD) and some subscales (T, F, C, V factor) showed a significant difference between male and female students. The internal consistency coefficient ($\alpha$) of the total 65 items was 0.93, and ranged from 0.67 to 0.90 for subscales. Test-retest correlations of 43 subjects ranged from 0.27 to 0.63. Seven psychiatrists rated the properness of the content of each item as more than moderate degree (mean scale points=2.66, in the range of 0 to 4). Every subscale of KPOMS exhibited significant correlation with the matching subscale of SCL-90-R. Mean scores of K-POMS of the total 405 subjects were significantly different from those of the 76 depressive subjects after age correction. Six factors were extracted, accounting for 51.2% of total variance. Factor 6 consisted of 6 items which came from various subscales of POMS and represented "uncertainty and helplessness," which may be somewhat different to depression or sadness proper. Conclusion: The validity and reliability of K-POMS could be confirmed. The significant difference in K-POMS scores between depressive subjects and normal subjects suggests that K-POMS can be used clinically for the evaluation and screening of depression. The main structure of K-POMS is very similar to that of POMS, except the Confusion-Bewilderment factor which shows weak factor consistency in K-POMS. This may reflect some emotional characteristic of Koreans such as an undifferentiated aspect of cognitive efficiency. The sixth factor newly extracted from K-POMS also may be indicative of an unique emotional aspect of young Koreans.

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Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

Salvage with Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty after the Failure of Proximal Humeral Tumor Treatment (근위 상완골 종양 치료 실패 후 역 견관절 전치환물을 이용한 구제술)

  • Jeon, Dae-Geun;Cho, Wan Hyeong;Kim, Bum Suk;Park, Hwanseong
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.505-512
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Many reconstruction methods have been attempted after an en-bloc resection of the proximal humerus. In particular, the introduction of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) has made a breakthrough in the functional recovery of the shoulder. Nevertheless, RSA has limitations when the humeral bone stock loss is significant. In addition, it is unclear if RSA is effective in patients showing failure with non-operative treatment of a proximal humeral tumor. Materials and Methods: A reconstruction was performed using an overlapping allograft-RSA composite for 11 patients with a failed proximal humeral construct. Delayed RSA was performed on 6 patients with failed non-operative treatment. The pre- and postoperative Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score and the complications were addressed. Results: Overlapping allograft-RSA composite afforded a stable construct in 11 failed proximal humeral reconstructions and the patient's chief complaints were resolved. The mean time to the union of overlapped allograft-host junction was 5.5 months. Average preoperative MSTS score of 20.3 point increased to 25.7 point, postoperatively. Four of the six patients who had RSA within 4 years from the index operation showed arm elevation of more than $90^{\circ}$ whereas the remaining 5 patients showed some disability. The complications include one case each of dislocation and aseptic infection, which were resolved by changing the polyethylene liner and scar revision, respectively. None of the 6 patients who underwent delayed RSA after the failure of non-operative treatment showed arm elevation more than $90^{\circ}$. Conclusion: An overlapping allograft-RSA composite is a simple and reliable reconstructive modality in patients with massive bone loss. In patients with metastatic cancer necessitating a surgical resection at presentation, early conversion to RSA is recommended to secure functional recovery.

Evaluation of Spectral Band Adjustment Factor Applicability for Near Infrared Channel of Sentinel-2A Using Landsat-8 (Landsat-8을 활용한 Sentinel-2A Near Infrared 채널의 Spectral Band Adjustment Factor 적용성 평가)

  • Nayeon Kim;Noh-hun Seong;Daeseong Jung;Suyoung Sim;Jongho Woo;Sungwon Choi;Sungwoo Park;Kyung-Soo Han
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.363-370
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    • 2023
  • Various earth observation satellites need to provide accurate and high-quality data after launch. To maintain and enhance the quality of satellite data, it is crucial to employ a cross-calibration process that accounts for differences in sensor characteristics, such as the spectral band adjustment factor (SBAF). In this study, we utilized Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A satellite imagery collected from desert sites in Libya4, Algeria3, and Mauritania2 among pseudo-invariant calibration sites to calculate and apply SBAF, thereby compensating the uncertainties arising from variations in bandwidths. We quantitatively compared the reflectance differences based on the similarity of bandwidths, including Blue, Green, Red, and both the near-infrared (NIR) narrow, and NIR bands of Sentinel-2A. Following the application of SBAF, significant results with reflectance differences of approximately 1% or less were observed for all bands except NIR. In the case of the Sentinel-2A NIR band, it exhibited a significantly larger bandwidth difference compared to the NIR narrow band. However, after applying SBAF, the reflectance difference fell within the acceptable error range (5%) of 1-2%. It indicates that SBAF can be applied even when there is a substantial difference in the bandwidths of the two sensors, particularly in situations where satellite utilization is limited. Therefore, it was determined that SBAF could be applied even when the bandwidth difference between the two sensors is large in a situation where satellite utilization is limited. It is expected to be helpful in research utilizing the quality and continuity of satellite data.

Comparison of rainfall-runoff performance based on various gridded precipitation datasets in the Mekong River basin (메콩강 유역의 격자형 강수 자료에 의한 강우-유출 모의 성능 비교·분석)

  • Kim, Younghun;Le, Xuan-Hien;Jung, Sungho;Yeon, Minho;Lee, Gihae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2023
  • As the Mekong River basin is a nationally shared river, it is difficult to collect precipitation data, and the quantitative and qualitative quality of the data sets differs from country to country, which may increase the uncertainty of hydrological analysis results. Recently, with the development of remote sensing technology, it has become easier to obtain grid-based precipitation products(GPPs), and various hydrological analysis studies have been conducted in unmeasured or large watersheds using GPPs. In this study, rainfall-runoff simulation in the Mekong River basin was conducted using the SWAT model, which is a quasi-distribution model with three satellite GPPs (TRMM, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR) and two GPPs (APHRODITE, GPCC). Four water level stations, Luang Prabang, Pakse, Stung Treng, and Kratie, which are major outlets of the main Mekong River, were selected, and the parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated using APHRODITE as an observation value for the period from 2001 to 2011 and runoff simulations were verified for the period form 2012 to 2013. In addition, using the ConvAE, a convolutional neural network model, spatio-temporal correction of original satellite precipitation products was performed, and rainfall-runoff performances were compared before and after correction of satellite precipitation products. The original satellite precipitation products and GPCC showed a quantitatively under- or over-estimated or spatially very different pattern compared to APHPRODITE, whereas, in the case of satellite precipitation prodcuts corrected using ConvAE, spatial correlation was dramatically improved. In the case of runoff simulation, the runoff simulation results using the satellite precipitation products corrected by ConvAE for all the outlets have significantly improved accuracy than the runoff results using original satellite precipitation products. Therefore, the bias correction technique using the ConvAE technique presented in this study can be applied in various hydrological analysis for large watersheds where rain guage network is not dense.

A Study of Accelerator Investment Determinants Based on Business Model Innovation Framework (비즈니스 모델 혁신 프레임워크 기반의 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 연구)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2022
  • Despite the uncertainty and risky factors of startups, the special and critical role of accelerators in carrying out professional nurturing and investment for them is becoming increasingly significant in the startup social-system. However, academic research on investment determinants that have a profound impact on the survival of accelerators is lacking, and there are only a few empirical studies on the classification and importance of factors, and they do not enjoy the benefits of theoretical studies. This study proposes a business model innovation framework based on the business model innovation theory that reflects the nature and properties of startups that are investment targets of accelerators and derives 12 investment decision factors. The framework defines that the target, direction, and performable force of startup innovation are a business model, strategy, and dynamic capability. Besides, the framework analyzes the investment decision factors of the existing accelerators based on the business model innovation framework to verify the suitability and sufficiency of the composition. As a result of the analysis, first, most of the items were faithfully composed from a static point of view of business model innovation, but it was found that the factors related to the core activities to evaluate the activity and customer relationship were insufficient. Second, from the strategic point of view, the necessity of developing factors that can encompass the definition and content of core resources, which are internal strategic factors, was raised. Third, from the dynamic point of view, it was found that many of the investment determinants of accelerators were concentrated on the lower level of dynamic competencies. This can be judged as a result of reflecting the characteristics of a startup that needs to develop a solution with few resources and a small number of team members. In addition, the roles and interrelationships between each factor are not clear, thus it was found as a limiting point for startups to view and evaluate the direction and process in which startups dynamically innovate their business models. This study is considerably differentiated in that it provides a business model innovation framework and offers a theoretical basis for investment determinants by deriving the investment determinants of accelerators based on the framework and design the foundation for subsequent research. The business model innovation framework presented in this study has great implications in that it contributes to the achievement of startups, accelerators, and startup support organizations.