• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성인자

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A Meta-regression Analysis of Wetland Valuation Studies in Korea (우리나라 습지의 환경적 가치 : 메타회귀분석)

  • Ahn, SoEun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.65-98
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    • 2007
  • Wetland provides various environmental services as well as marketable goods to human society. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the wetland valuation studies conducted in Korea during the past decade. Meta-analysis is a technique of summarizing research results from the separate but related studies using statistical methods. The objectives of the paper is to identify the main factors affecting the wetland values and to examine the applicability of meta-regression analysis for summarizing the information from valuation studies of natural ecosystem. The total of 64 observations from 24 studies are assembled, and we observe significant differences in wetland values depending on the characteristics of the studies. With the statistical significance, our results indicate that the method employed affects the wetland values while the wetland function evaluated affects little. In addition, we found that the size of wetland is negatively associated with the values, implying that wetland values exhibit the decreasing returns to scale. The evidences from our empirical analysis suggest that the meta-analysis has a potential as a tool to synthesize the research results from valuation studies and to provide useful information to policy makers. However, this study acknowledges that more effort should be dedicated toward the construction of DB on valuation studies as well as the research on the model improvement to enhance the validity and reliability of meta-analysis.

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Evaluation of Modified Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Model (mSPA) to Simulate Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange Over a Deciduous Forest at Gwangneung in 2006 (2006년 광릉 활엽수림에서 순 생태계 탄소 교환량의 모의에 대한 modified Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (mSPA) 모델의 평가)

  • Lee, Young-Hee;Lim, Hee-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2009
  • We evaluated modified Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model's performance to simulate the seasonal variation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and examined the critical controlling mechanism on carbon exchange using the model over a deciduous forest at Gwangnung in 2006. The modified Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (mSPA) model was calibrated to capture the mean NEE during the daytime (1000-1400 LST) and used to simulate gross primary productivity (GPP). Ecosystem respiration ($R_e$) has been estimated using an empirical formula developed at this site. The simulation results indicated that the daytime mean stomatal conductance was highly correlated with daily insolation in the summer. Low stomatal conductance in high insolation occurred on the days with low temperature rather than with high vapor pressure deficit. It suggests that the forest rarely experienced water stress in the summer of 2006. The model captured the observed bimodal seasonal variation with a mid-season depression of carbon uptake. The model estimates of annual GPP, $R_e$ and NEE were $964\;gC\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$, $733\;gC\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$, and $-231\;gCm\;^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$, respectively. Compared to the observed annual NEE, the modeled estimates showed more carbon uptake by about $140\;gC\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$. The uncertainty of the estimate of annual NEE in a complex terrain is discussed.

Development of Risk Analysis Structure for Large-scale Underground Construction in Urban Areas (도심지 대규모 지하공사의 리스크 분석 체계 개발)

  • Seo, Jong-Won;Yoon, Ji-Hyeok;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jee, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2010
  • Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

Measurement of the Plane Wave Reflection Coefficient for the Saturated Granular Medium in the Water Tank and Comparison to Predictions by the Biot Theory (수조에서 입자 매질의 평면파 반사계수 측정과 Biot 이론에 의한 예측)

  • Lee Keun-Hwa
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.246-256
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    • 2006
  • The plane wave reflection coefficient is an acoustic property containing all the information concerning the ocean bottom and can be used as an input parameter to various acoustic propagation models. In this paper, we measure the plane wave reflection coefficient, the sound speed, thd the attenuation for saturated granular medium in the water tank. Three kinds of glass beads and natural sand are used as the granular medium. The reflection experiment is performed with the sinusoidal tone bursts of 100 kHz at incident angles from 28 to 53 degrees, and the sound speed and attenuation experiment are performed also with the same signal. From the measured reflection signal, the reflection coefficient is calculated with the self calibration method and the experimental uncertainties are discussed. The sound speed and the attenuation measurements are used for the estimation of the porosity and permeability, the main Biot parameters. The estimated values are compared to the directly measured values and used as input values to the Biot theory in order to calculate the theoretical reflection coefficient. Finally, the reflection coefficient predicted by Biot theory is compared to the measured reflection coefficient and their characteristics are discussed.

Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Model Predictions Associated with Uncertainty of Boundary Conditions: A Case Study (지하수 모델의 주요 경계조건에 대한 민감도 분석 사례)

  • Na, Han-Na;Koo, Min-Ho;Cha, Jang-Hawn;Kim, Yong-Je
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2007
  • Appropriate representation of hydrologic boundaries in groundwater models is critical to the development of a reliable model. This paper examines how the model predictions are affected by the uncertainty in the conceptualization of the hydrologic boundaries including groundwater divides, streams, and the lower boundaries of the flow system. The problem is analyzed for a study area where a number of field data for model inputs were available. First, a groundwater flow model is constructed and calibrated for the area using the Visual Modflow code. Recharge rate is used for the unknown variable determined through the calibration process. Secondly, a series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate the effects of model uncertainties embedded in specifying boundary conditions for streams and groundwater divides and specifying lower boundary of the bedrock. Finally, this paper provides some guidelines and discussions on how to deal with such hydrologic boundaries in view of developing a reliable conceptual model for the groundwater flow system of Korea.

Analysis on Characteristics of Sediment Produce by Landslide in a Basin 1. Simulation of Sediment Produce and its Verification (유역 내에서의 산사태에 의한 토사발생특성 분석 1. 토사발생모의 및 검증)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Kee-Wook;Kim, Seong-Joon;Lee, Mi-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.133-145
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzed the characteristics of sediment produce by landslide triggered by rainfall. One-dimensional unsaturated groundwater model and infinite slope stability analysis were used to estimate the behavior of soil moisture and slope stability according to rainfall, respectively. Slope stability analysis was performed considering on soil depth and characteristics of trees. As the results considering on recovery of the failed slopes, much amount of sediment was produced in 1963, 1970, and 2002. As the results of verification of simulation results using Landsat 5 TM images, we can find differences of landslide location between the results from model and satellite images. These differences can be caused by uncertainties of the rough parameters in the model. However, in the case that Obong-dam basin was divided into two subbasin, Wangsan-chun and Doma-chun basin, the results of each subbasin show errors around 20%. And only 4% of error occurred in the case of comparing landslide area on the entire Obong-dam basin. These errors seem insignificant considering on the errors which can be caused from the analyses in this study such as estimation of sediment produce, soil cover classification, and estimation of landslide area.

Evaluating the Trapping Efficiency of Vegetative Buffer Systems on Sediment Reduction Using SWAT model (SWAT 모델을 이용한 수변 완충지역에서 비점오염원 저감효율 평가)

  • Kim, Ik-Jae;Son, Kyong-Ho;Kim, Jeong-Kon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1819-1823
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    • 2007
  • 유역에서 상류 유역 또는 수변을 따라 자연 자원을 이용하여 조성되어야 할 완충지대는 비점오염의 영향을 줄이기 위한 중요한 최적 관리공법이다. 교란된 토지 피복과 수변 완충지대를 관리 및 복원할 때 같은 지형조건이라도 식생 종류, 발달정도, 토양조건에 따라 오염물 제거효과가 다를 수 있으며, 최소 완충지대 길이도 제거 오염물질 대상별로 적합하게 설계되고 해석되어야 한다. 본 연구의 목적은 용담댐 유역에서 SWAT 모델을 이용하여 식생 완충지대의 비점오염원 저감 모의 재현성을 평가하는 것이였다. 소유역의 관측값과 모델 예측값에 대한 모델의 검 보정이 선행되었으며 그 중에서 가장 높은 모델 효율을 가지는 소유역에서 three zone concept의 90m 수변완충지대를 지방하천을 경계로 하여 토지 피복도를 변화시켜 SWAT 모델에 적용하였다. 이 때 교목으로는 포플러 (Populus, 30m)을 적용하였고, 포플러의 높이 및 Leaf area index를 조정하여 관목 지대(30m)에 입력하였다. 잔디 지대(30m)는 자연초지를 선택하였다. 또한 지형변수(average slope)와 Manning's coefficient을 수변완충지대의 조건에 고려하여 변화를 주었고 이에 따른 유출량 및 유사량, T-N, T-P의 변화율을 조사하였다. 또한 5, 10, 30m의 식생 여과대를 밭 지역에만 적용하여 오염물의 저감 효율을 평가하였다. SWAT 모델은 각 소유역에서 발생된 전반적인 유출량과 수질변수의 추세를 잘 예측하였으며 정자천 소유역이 선택되었다. 모의된 완충지대에서는 연평균 940 m3/ha의 유출량이 감소되는 것으로 유사농도는 28.7 %의 저감효과를 보였다. 그러나 T-N, T-P의 농도는 오히려 증가되었는데 본 연구에서 고려된 보다 수변완충지대를 조성할 때 지하수 수위, 식생 성장변화 등과 같은 보다 정확한 설계 인자 산출 및 모델 DB 개발이 유역모델에 포함되어야 할 것으로 판단되었다.한 해결책을 얻어내는 상호보완적인 결과를 추구한다. 그가 디자인하는 작품은 전형적인 이미지를 내포하지 않는다. 즉 그의 작품은 기존의 가치와 이념적인 것은 배제하고, 창의적인 개념을 도출하였다.형모서리는 건물 특화 성격이 강하므로 불가피할 경우 소형 액센트 광고 위치를 미리 벽면으로 할애하는 것이 경관 및 입면계획에 유리한 것으로 분석되었다. 불확실도 해석모형 등의 새로운 기능을 추가하여 제시하였다. 모든 입출력자료는 프로젝트 단위별로 운영되어 data의 관리가 손쉽도록 하였으며 결과를 DB에 저장하여 다른 모형에서도 적용할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 HyGIS-HMS 및 HyGIS-RAS 모형에서 강우-유출-하도 수리해석-범람해석 등이 일괄되게 하나의 시스템 내에서 구현될 수 있도록 하였다. 따라서 HyGIS와 통합된 수리, 수문모형은 국내 하천 및 유역에 적합한 시스템으로서 향후 HydroInformatics 구현을 염두에 둔 특화된 국내 수자원 분야 소프트웨어의 개발에 기본 토대를 제공할 것으로 판단된다.았다. 또한 저자들의 임상병리학적 연구결과가 다른 문헌에서 보고된 소아 신증후군의 연구결과와 큰 차이를 보이지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 자극에 차이가 있지 않나 추측되며 이에 관한 추후 연구가 요망된다. 총대장통과시간의 단축은 결장 분절 모두에서 줄어들어 나타났으나 좌측결장 통과시간의 감소 및 이로 인한 이 부위의 통과시간 비율의 저하가 가장 주요하였다. 이러한 결과는 차가운 생수 섭취가 주로 결장 근위부를 자극하는 효과를 발휘하는 것이 아닌가 해석된다. 이와 같은 연구결과를 통해 생다시마를 주원료로 개발된 생다시마차와 생다시마 음료가 만성 기능성 변비 증세를 개선하는 효능이 잠재적으로 있음을 확인하였다. 그러나 생약제재의 변비약 수준으로 변비 개선 효능을 증대하기 위해서는 재료 배합비의 개선이나 대장 운동기능을 향상시키는 유효성분의 보강 등이 필요하다는 점도 알 수 있었다.더불어 산화물질 해독에 관

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Development of fecal coliform prediction model using random forest method (랜덤포레스트기법을 이용한 분변성대장균 예측모델 개발)

  • Seo, Il Won;Choi, Soo Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.124-124
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    • 2016
  • 하천에서의 분변성대장균은 분변성 오염 정도를 나타내는 지표로서, 이 농도가 높을수록 오염된 하천수와의 접촉을 통한 호흡기, 소화기 및 피부 관련 질병의 발발 확률이 높다고 알려져 있다. 따라서 하천에서의 수영, 수상스키 등과 같은 입수형 친수활동을 할 때, 분변성대장균 농도가 농도 기준 이하인지를 확인하고 이러한 정보를 친수활동에 이용할 필요가 있다. 그러나 분변성대장균의 경우, 현재 자동수질측정망에서 측정되고 있는 다른 수질인자들과는 달리 실시간 측정이 불가능하다고 알려져 있다. 분변성대장균을 측정하는데 있어 최소 18시간 이상이 필요하며, 이러한 분변성대장균 측정 방식은 하천 이용자들이 안전한 친수활동을 영위하는데 있어 적절한 수질 정보를 제공하지 못한다. 그러므로 분변성대장균을 예측하는 모델을 개발하고, 이를 이용하여 실시간 분변성대장균 정보를 생성하여 하천 이용자들에게 제공할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 친수활동이 활발하게 이루어지는 곳 중 하나인 북한강의 대성리 지점에 대해 데이터 기반 모델을 이용하여 분변성대장균을 예측하였다. 데이터 기반 모델은 물리 기반 모델에서 필요한 지형데이터나 비점오염원 등의 초기 오염물의 양에 대한 데이터를 필요로 하지 않고, 대신 독립변수로 사용되는 기상 및 수질데이터를 필요로 한다. 이러한 기상 및 수질데이터는 기존 기상관측소, 수질관측소에서 매일 자동으로 측정되기 때문에 데이터 기반 모델은 물리 기반 모델에 비해 입력데이터를 구성하기가 쉽다는 장점을 지닌다. 이러한 데이터 기반 모델 중 분류 모델은 회귀 모델과 달리 분변성대장균 농도가 일정 수질기준 이상을 넘는지를 바로 예측할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 분류 모델 중 높은 예측력을 가진다고 알려진 랜덤포레스트(random forest) 기법을 이용하여 분변성대장균 예측 모델을 개발하였다. 분변성대장균 예측 모델은 주어진 기상 및 수질 조건에 대해 분변성대장균이 200 CFU/100ml가 넘는지를 예측하였다. 예측된 분변성대장균이 기준을 넘는 경우를 2등급, 넘지 않는 경우를 1등급으로 명명하였다. 모델을 개발하기 위하여 북한강 대성리 인근 측정소에서 2010년부터 2015년까지 측정된 기상 및 수질데이터를 수집하였다. 수집한 데이터를 훈련 및 검증데이터로 샘플링하였으며, 이 때 샘플링한 데이터가 기존 데이터가 가지고 있던 등급별 비율을 유지하기 위하여 층화샘플링을 하였다. 본 연구에서는 샘플링에 의한 불확실성을 줄이기 위하여 랜덤하게 50번 샘플링된 각각의 훈련데이터에 대해 모델을 개발하였다. 50개의 모델의 검증 결과를 종합한 결과, 전체 예측률은 0.139로 나타났다.

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Studies on the Inheritance of Heading Date in Wheat(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell) (소맥(Triticum aestivum L. em Thell)의 출수기 유전에 관한 연구)

  • Chang-Hwan Cho
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.15
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 1974
  • Introducing genes for earliness of wheat varieties is important to develop early varieties in winter wheat. In oder to obtain basic informations on the response of heading to the different day length and temperature treatments and on the inheritance of heading dates, experiments were conducted at the field and greenhouse of the Crop Experiment Station, Suwon. Varieties used in this experiments were, early variety Yecora F70, medium varieties Suke #169, Parker and Yukseung #3, and late varieties Changkwang, Bezostaia, Sturdy and Blueboy. The parents and F$_1$s of partial diallel crosses of above eight varieties were subjected the following four different treatments; 1. high temperature and long day, 2. high temperature and short day, 3. low temperature and long day, and 4. low temperature and short day. The same materials were grown also in field condition. Parents, F$_1$ and F$_2$ generation were grown also in both greenhouse under high temperature and short day and in field. The results obtained were summarized as follow: 1. No effects of temperature and daylength on the number of leaves on the main stem were found when -varieties were vernalized. The number of main stem leaves were fewer for spring type of varieties than for winter type of varieties. 2. The effects of temperature and daylength on the days to flag leaf opening were dependent on the speed of leaf emergence. The speed of leaf emergence were faster for lower leaves than for upper leaves. 3. The response to short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) of varieties were found to be direct factor responsible to physiology of heading dates in vernalized varieties. Great difference of varieties to heading date was found in high temperature and short day treatment, but less differences were found in high temperature and long day, low temperature and long day and low temperature and short day treatments respectively. The least varietal difference for heading dates was found in the field condition. 4. Changkwang and Parker were found to be the most sensitive to short day treatment (photosensitive) and the heading of these varieties were delayed by short day treatment. No great varietal differences were found among other varieties. 5. Varietal differences of heading dates due to daylength were greater in high temperature than in low temperature. 6. Varietal differences of heading dates due to temperature were not great. but in general the heading dates of varieties were faster under high temperature than under low temperature. 7. Earliness of heading dates was due to partial dominance effect of genes involved in any condition. The degree of dominance was greater under short day than under long day treatment. 8. The varietal differences of heading date under high temperature and long day were due to earliness or narrow sense (response to long day) of varieties. The degree of dominance was greater for Yecora F70, spring type than for other winter type of varieties. No differences or less differences of degree of dominance was found among winter type of varieties. The estimated number of effective factor concerned in the earliness of narrow sense was one pair of allele with minor genes. 9. The insensitivity of varieties to short day treatment in heading dates was due to single dominant gene effect. Under the low temperature the sensitivity of varieties to short day treatment was less apparent. 10. The earliness of short day and long day (earliness of narrow sense) sensitivities of varieties appearea to be due to partial dominance of earliness over lateness. In strict sense, the degree of the dominance should be distinguished. 11. Dominant gene effects were found for the thermo-sensitivity of varieties, and the effect was less, significant than the earliness in narrow sense. 12. One pair of allele, ee and EE, for photosensitivity was responsible for the difference in the heading dates between Changkwang and Suke #169. Two pairs of alleles, ee, enen and EE, EnEn. appeared to be responsible for the difference between Changkwang and Yecora F70. The effects of EE and EnEn were, additive to the earliness and the effects of EE were greater than EnEn under short day. However, the effects of EE were not evident in long day but the effects of EnEn were observed in long day. 13. Two pairs of dominant alleles for the earliness were estimated from the analysis of F$_1$ diallels in the field but the effects of these alleles in F$_2$ were not apparent due to low temperature and short day treatment in early part of growth and high temperature and long day treatment in later part of growth. The F$_2$ population shows continuous variation due to environmental effects and due to other minor gene effects. 14. The heritabilities for heading dates were ranged from 0.51 to 0.72, indicating that the selection in early generation might be effective. The extent of heritability for heading dates varied with environments; higher magnitude of heritability was obtained in short day treatment and high temperature compared with long day and low temperature treatments. The heritabilities of heading date due to response to short day were 0.86 in high temperature and 0.76 in low temperature. The heritabilities of heading date due to temperature were not significantly high. 15. The correlation coefficients of heading dates to the number of grains per spike, weight of 1, 000 grains. and grain yield were positive and high, indicating the difficulties of selections of high yielding lines from early population. But no significant correlation coefficient was obtained between the earliness and the number of spikes, indicating the effective selection for high tillering from early varieties for high yielding.

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Determination of Target Clean-up Level and Risk-Based Remediation Strategy (위해성에 근거한 정화목표 산정 및 복원전략 수립)

  • Ryu, Hye-Rim;Han, Joon-Kyoung;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2007
  • Risk-based remediation strategy (RBRS) is a consistent decision-making process for the assessment and response to chemical release based on protecting human health and the environment. The decision-making process described integrates exposure and risk assessment practices with site assessment activities and remedial action selection to ensure that the chosen actions are protective of human health and the environment. The general sequences of events in Tier 1 is as follows: initial site assessment, development of conceptual site model with all exposure pathways, data collection on pollutants and receptors, and identification of risk-based screening level (RBSL). If site conditions do not meet RBSL, it needs further site-specific tier evaluation, Tier 2. In most cases, only limited number of exposure pathways, exposure scenarios, and chemicals of concern are considered the Tier 2 evaluation since many are eliminated from consideration during the Tier 1 evaluation. In spite of uncertainties due to the conservatism applied to risk calculations, limitation in site-specific data collections, and variables affecting the selection of target risk levels and exposure factors, RBRS provides us time- and cost-effectiveness of the remedial action. To ensure reliance of the results, the development team should consider land and resource use, cumulative risks, and additive effects. In addition, it is necessary to develop appropriate site assessment guideline and reliable toxicity assessment method, and to study on site-specific parameters and exposure parameters in Korea.