• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성인자

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Effect of Groundwater Flow on Ice-wall Integrity (얼음벽 형성에 대한 지하수 흐름의 영향)

  • Shin, Hosung;Kim, Jinwook;Lee, Jangguen
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.43-55
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    • 2018
  • AGF (Artificial Ground Freezing) method is a temporary ground improvement method which can apply to all types of soil with the purpose of high stiffness and low hydraulic conductivity. However, the groundwater flow and the heterogeneity of the ground increase the uncertainty of the ice-column formation which hinders the reliability of this method. The effects of groundwater flow and layered heterogeneity on ice-wall integrity by AGF method were analyzed using finite element analysis program for a coupled thermo-hydro phenomena in the freezing ground. Groundwater flow changes circular ice-column into elliptical shapes and increases the time required for the formation of ice walls. The previous theoretical formula overestimated the completion time of the ice wall and the critical groundwater velocity by neglecting the thermal interaction between adjacent ice-columns. Numerical results presented the corrected formula and verified the proposed equation for the dimensionless ice-wall completion time. In the layered heterogeneous ground, the thickness of the layer with higher hydraulic conductivity and its relative magnitude were found to be important factors in the ice-wall completion time and critical velocity.

The prediction of deformation according to tunnel excavation in weathered granite (화강 풍화암지반의 터널굴착에 따른 변형예측)

  • Cha, Bong-Geun;Kim, Young-Su;Kwo, Tae-Soon;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.329-340
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    • 2010
  • Mechanical behavior of underground cavity construction such as tunnel is very difficult to estimate due to complexity and uncertainty of ground. Prediction of behavior according to excavation of tunnel mainly uses method utilized of model test or numerical analysis. But scale model test is difficult to reappear field condition, numerical analysis is also very hard to seek choice of suitable constituent model and input data. To solve this problem, this paper forecasted the deformation of tunnel that applied to information of crown settlement and convergence, RMR in weathered granite by using the regression analysis. The result of the analysis shows that the crown settlement according to excavation occurs approximately 70~80% of total displacements within about 20 days. As a result of the prediction of crown settlement and convergence, an exponential function becomes more accurate at measurements than an algebraic function. Also this paper got a correlation in comparison of RMR and displacements of 6 sections.

Georeferencing of Primary Species Occurrence Data and Necessity of Data Quality Control - A Case Study of Two Varieties of Ox-Knee, Achyranthes bidentata Blume - (1차종발생자료를 응용한 지리참조연산표준화 및 자료 품질 관리의 필요성 - 쇠무릎과 털쇠무릎의 적용 사례 -)

  • Chang, Chin-Sung;Chang, Kae Sun;Ahn, Yong-Sup;Kim, Hui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.2
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this contribution is to develop the framework of a methodology for identifying potential errors in georeferencing and in an application of it using specimens of Ox-Knee, Achyranthes bidentata Blume in Korea. At infraspecific level, uncertainty of identification showed that 41% of A. bidentata var. japonica and 28% of var. bidentata were misidentified, suggesting that the uncertainty level was independent of the reliability of experts' identification. For georeference specimen records, 71 specimens out of total 303 were selected and utilized as occurrence data: Uncertainty was 32.4 km at maximum and was 0.1297 km at minimum (mean = 4,055 m, s.d. = 5,772 m). Var. japonica is common throughout most of the southeastern Korea and west coastal areas, while var. bidentata has been found as far north as Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces. We modelled the potential distribution of two varieties using Bioclim approach in Korea based on several environmental factors. Our results indicated the most important region for var. japonica lies the west coast ranges and southern area, while for Chungcheongnam-do of potential high diversity occurs for var. bidentata. This study shows that the major factors to determine the distribution patterns of two varieties were thermal factors, rather than precipitation. The Bioclim model using geocode and georeferencing data makes the information increasingly useful and reliable. To improve data quality, it requires full management from data collection to final databases including data cleaning.

A Study on Regionalization of Parameters for Sacramento Continuous Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Watershed Characteristics (유역특성인자를 활용한 Sacramento 장기유출모형의 매개변수 지역화 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Jeong, Ga-In;Kim, Ki-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.793-806
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    • 2015
  • The simulation of natural streamflow at ungauged basins is one of the fundamental challenges in hydrology community. The key to runoff simulation in ungauged basins is generally involved with a reliable parameter estimation in a rainfall-runoff model. However, the parameter estimation of the rainfall-runoff model is a complex issue due to an insufficient hydrologic data. This study aims to regionalize the parameters of a continuous rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a Bayesian statistical technique to consider uncertainty more precisely associated with the parameters. First, this study employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for the estimation of the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Sacramento model is calibrated against observed daily runoff data, and finally, the posterior density function of the parameters is derived. Second, we applied a multiple linear regression model to the set of the parameters with watershed characteristics, to obtain a functional relationship between pairs of variables. The proposed model was also validated with gauged watersheds in accordance with the efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation.

Models of Reliability Assessment of Ultrasonic Nondestructive Inspection (초음파 비파괴검사의 신뢰도 평가 모델)

  • Park, I.K.;Park, U.S.;Kim, H.M.;Park, Y.W.;Kang, S.C.;Choi, Y.H.;Lee, J.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.607-611
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    • 2001
  • Ultrasonic inspection system consist of the operator, equipment and procedure. The reliability of results in ultrasonic inspection is affected by its ability. Furthermore, the reliability of nondestructive testing is influenced by the inspection environment, materials and types of defect. Therefore, it is very difficult to estimate the reliability of NDT due to the various factors. In this study, the probability of detection by logistic probability model and Monte Carlo simulation is used for the reliability assessment of ultrasonic inspection. The utility of the NDT reliability assesment is verified by the analysis of the data from round robin test nth these models.

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Evaluation of the Smear Zone by Numerical Analysis Method (수치해석에 의한 스미어 존 평가)

  • Kang, Yun;Nam, Yelwoo;Lee, Seombeom;Kim, Hongtaek
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2007
  • The vertical drain method recently being used in Korea is divided into the sand drain method, the pack drain method, the paper drain method, and the PBD method according to the drainage. However, these methods generate the disturbed zone called the smear zone when the drainage is penetrated into the in-situ ground. The characteristics of the smear zone generated cause the problems that the coefficient of permeability decreases and the consolidation time becomes longer than expected in the design. Although the size of the smear zone is a very important factor directly influencing the degree of consolidation, in the existing studies, the general value for the size of the smear zone proposed has been used in the design. However, the size of the smear zone proposed by the existing studies cause a loss of economical efficiency because of the inaccuracy of the design. Hence, in this study, the characteristics on the size of the smear zone were analyzed by carrying out the three dimensional numerical analysis and the method to determine the conversion size of the smear zone considering the change of the coefficient of permeability was proposed in order to consider the change of the coefficient of permeability in the actual design.

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An Optimization Study on the Radiation Management in Nuclear Power Plants (원자력 발전소 방사선 관리의 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jong-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 1993
  • It is a fundamental element of the nuclear power plant operation to assess exactly the occupational radiation exposure. And, according to recently published ICRP 60 recommendation, it is needed to reduce individual radiaton exposure limit further. In this paper, an optimization techique was suggested for selection of alternatives for reducing occupational radiation exposure, and used in reviewing alternatives given by a plant utility. After the basic analysis, sensitivity analysis was performed to consider the variabilities of the economic variables. From the result, it was found that an option using steam generator nozzle dam and torquing machine was the best with respect to total benefits, and in case of multi-attribute utility analysis, an option using Co-No seal had the highest utility. Therefore, it was necessary to apply more than one technique togeter in optimization study and to consider qualitative factor, too.

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A Study on the Risk Evaluation of Apartment Development Project based on VE (VE기반 공동주택 개발사업 리스크 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chul;Shin, Seog-Bae;Hong, Ju-Hyun;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.14-25
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    • 2009
  • Development work of apartment houses is a complex medium-and long-term project requiring grand resources and work force. Since in combination inner and outer project variables relate to project output, uncertainties caused by not only a given site condition but also politic, economy and social sectors are generated during the project. These risks influence output of the project as important factors, and ultimately as management variables in priority giving an effect on earnings and the financial structure of enterprises they should be manageable with the risk reduction plan. In this point of view, this study focused on development work of apartment houses among construction project. Risky factors were deduced, analyzed and evaluated based on Value Engineering from planning to designing to executing to maintaining. Eventually, this study showed the foundation guaranteeing competitive power of public and private construction sectors.

An Uncertainty Analysis of Topographical Factors in Paddy Field Classification Using a Time-series MODIS (시계열 MODIS 영상을 이용한 논 분류와 지형학적 인자에 따른 불확실성 분석)

  • Yoon, Sung-Han;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Jang, Min-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2007
  • The images of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that provide wider swath and shorter revisit frequency than Land Satellite (Landsat) and Satellite Pour I' Observation de la Terre (SPOT) has been used fer land cover classification with better spatial resolution than National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR)'s images. Due to the advantages of MODIS, several researches have conducted, however the results for the land cover classification using MODIS images have less accuracy of classification in small areas because of low spatial resolution. In this study, uncertainty of paddy fields classification using MODIS images was conducted in the region of Gyeonggi-do and the relation between this uncertainty of estimating paddy fields and topographical factors was also explained. The accuracy of classified paddy fields was compared with the land cover map of Environmental Geographic Information System (EGIS) in 2001 classified using Landsat images. Uncertainty of paddy fields classification was analyzed about the elevation and slope from the 30m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provided in EGIS. As a result of paddy classification, user's accuracy was about 41.5% and producer's accuracy was 57.6%. About 59% extracted paddy fields represented over 50 uncertainty in one hundred scale and about 18% extracted paddy fields showed 100 uncertainty. It is considered that several land covers mixed in a MODIS pixel influenced on extracted results and most classified paddy fields were distributed through elevation I, II and slope A region.

Spatiotemporal Uncertainty of Rainfall Erosivity Factor Estimated Using Different Methodologies (적용 기법에 따른 강우침식인자 산정 결과의 시공간적 불확실성)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Shin, Sangmin;Yoo, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2016
  • RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the empirical formular widely used to estimate rates of soil erosion caused by rainfall and associated overland flow. Among the factors considered in RUSLE, rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) is the major one derived by rainfall intensity and characteristics of rainfall event. There has been developed various methods to estimate R factor, such as energy based methods considering physical schemes of soil erosion and simple methods using the empirical relationship between soil erosion and annual total rainfall. This study is aimed to quantitatively evaluate the variation among the R factors estimated using different methods for South Korea. Station based observation (minutely rainfall data) were collected for 72 stations to investigate the characteristics of rainfall events over the country and similarity and differentness of R factors calculated by each method were compared in various ways. As results use of simple methods generally provided greater R factors comparing to those for energy based methods by 76 % on average and also overestimated the range of factors using different equations. The variation coefficient of annual R factors was calculated as 0.27 on average and the results significantly varied by the stations. Additionally the study demonstrated the rank of methods that would provide exclusive results comparing to others for each station. As it is difficult to find universal way to estimate R factors for specific regions, the efforts to validate and integrate various methods are required to improve the applicability and accuracy of soil erosion estimation.