• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도

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Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.sup
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

The Evaluation on Reuse Period of Patient's Clothes and Sheet After Radioiodine Therapy (방사성 요오드 치료환자의 환의 및 시트에 대한 재사용주기 평가)

  • Kim, Yeong Seon;Seo, Myung Deok;Lee, Wan Kyu;Kim, Ki Joon;Song, Jae Beom
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : The patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy must be disposed of by related regulation. That must be disposed of as radioactive wastes, but that is reusing after radioactivity decay by keeping for the certain period of time. In general, The minimum storage period calculate by standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area based on measured surface contamination level. But the measurements of surface contamination level are able to differ by measurement method. In this paper, I wish to calculate the minimum storage period of patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy by measure nuclide concentration offered by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive wastes. Materials and Methods : The whole area of patient's clothes and sheet measured 31 patients(male:9 patients, female:22 patients), who had radioiodine therapy(3.7 GBq:13 patients, 5.55 GBq:16 patients, 7.4 GBq:2 patients) from july 2011 to march 2012. The minimum storage period is calculated by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste(100 Bq/g) and standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area(4 kBq/m2) Results : The minimum storage period of pillow sheet, upper uniform, lower uniform by standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area were each 4.6 days, 63days, 78 days. The minimum storage period of pillow sheet, upper uniform, lower uniform by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste were each 18.1 days, 43 days, 62 days. Conclusion : We can verify that patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy exists a great deal of radioactive contamination. The minimum storage period calculation of patient's clothes and sheet is better suited to applying nuclide concentration offered by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste. I recommend, To keep for at least 2 months of the patient's clothes and sheet contaminated radioactivity, for prevent contamination and unnecessary radiation exposure.

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Review of 2016 Major Medical Decisions (2016년 주요 의료판결 분석)

  • Park, Tae Shin;Yoo, Hyun Jung;Jeong, Hye Seung;Lee, Dong Pil;Lee, Jung Sun
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.297-341
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    • 2017
  • We searched out court rulings on medical affairs through court library search sites and specialized articles on medically relevant judgments sentenced in 2016. And we selected and analyzed the judgements of the court we considered important as follows. In relation to the medical civil judgements, (1) In the case of applying surgery for female infertility during cesarean section operation but it has not been done, we expressed the regret for the lack of judgment in the process of entering the medical contract, introducing the rights infringed and the scope of compensation, (2) We pointed out that the ruling on the medical malpractice estimation goes out of limit of negligence estimation doctrine, and that the court asked very high degree duty of the traditional Korean medicine doctors to cooperate with Western medicine doctors. (3) In the case of admitting hospital's 100% responsibility, we pointed out the court overlooked the uncertainty and good intention of the medical practice. (4) Additionally, We introduced the cases admitted the hospital's responsibility in the accident related to the psychiatric patients in closed ward. Relating to a medical criminal ruling, we analyzed the supreme court decision about whether the dentist's Botox injection on the patient's face is a medical practice within the scope of the license from the viewpoint whether it is within the possible range of the word. And, concerning decisions on healthcare administration, (1) we analyzed the case about when medical personnel operate multiple medical institutions, whether it is possible to get back medical care costs under the National Health Insurance Law, (2) We commented on the ruling regarding explanation obligation in terms of object, degree, subject of explanation as a prerequisite for permissible arbitrary uninsured benefits. Finally, we reviewed the decision of the Constitutional Court about the Article 24 of the Mental Health Law, which it had allowed for a mental patient to be hospitalized forcibly by the consent of two guardians and a diagnosis of a psychiatrist. Also we indicated the problems of the revised Mental Health Law.

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Usefulness of Interferon-$\gamma$ Measurement Following Stimulation of Tuberculosis-specific Antigens for Diagnosis of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Children Exposed to Pulmonary Tuberculosis (폐결핵 접촉력을 가진 소아에서 잠복 결핵 감염의 진단을 위한 결핵 특이항원 자극 인터페론-감마 측정의 유용성)

  • Sung, Ji Yeon;Ki, Joo Hwa;Yang, Mi Ae;Kim, So Hee;Eun, Byung Wook;Kim, Nam Hee;Park, Kyoung Un;Lee, Jina;Choi, Eun Hwa;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Whole blood interferon-$\gamma$ assay was developed and many studies showed its usefulness in diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) including latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). However, assessment in children has been limited. This study was undertaken to evaluate the usefulness of QuantiFERON-TB Gold for the diagnosis of LTBI in children exposed to pulmonary TB. Methods : Children who visited Seoul National University Bundang Hospital with a history of TB exposure were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2007. They were evaluated with chest x-rays, tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold test. TST was retested 3 months later for those with initial negative reactivity. Definition of LTBI was made on the basis of the TST reactivity. Results : Among the 103 children with a history of TB exposure, 49 children were tested with chest x-ray, TST, and QuantiFERON-TB Gold. Twenty-two were males. Median age was 7.5 years (range; 3 months to 14.7 years). According to TST reactivity, LTBI was in 8 (19%), no infection was in 21 (50%), possible LTBI was in 13 (31%). QuantiFERON-TB Gold test was positive in 5 of the 49 subjects (10%); 3 of the 13 subjects (23.1%) in unknown status, 1 of the 8 subjects (13%) in LTBI, and 1 of the 21 subjects (5%) without infection. The agreement between the QuantiFERON-TB Gold and the TST was poor (${\kappa}=0.101$). Conclusion : QuantiFERON-TB Gold showed poor sensitivity for the diagnosis of LTBI in children with exposure to TB. QuantiFERON-TB Gold alone does not seem to be useful in the diagnosis of LTBI in children.

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Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Effects of pH and Redox Conditon on Silica Sorption in Submerged soils (담수조건(湛水條件)에서 토양산도(土壤酸度)와 산화환원(酸化還元) 전위(電位)가 토양(土壤)의 규산흡착(珪酸吸着)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Lee, Sang-Eun;Neue, Heins Ulitz
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 1992
  • Silica sorption isotherm belonged to the C-type with weak L-type characteristics according to the classification system of adsorption isotherm. Silica sorption isothem fitted well to the Freundlich and Tempkin equation but not to the Langmuir equation. The color interference probably due to $Fe^{2+}$ during spectrometric silca determination by Molybdenum-blue method affected the sorption isotherm in reduced soils or low pH. Four parameters such as the intercept of Freundlich equation, the slope of Tempkin equation, the "Silica reactivity", and the "C-type slope", where the last two parameters were termed in the current study, were examined to assess treatment effects on silica sorption. Among them the "C-type slope" was found out to be the best parameter. The C-type isotherms showed the same high correlation coefficient as Freundlich and Tempkin equation when regressed to the sorption isothem. Plotting the C-type slope on a logarithmic scale vs. the pH showed high linearity. Using the "C-type slope" as a perameter, the pH and soil type affected the silica sorption while the effect of redox condtion was not significant. All Fe and Al extracted by the various reagents, and OM were highly correlated to silica sorption. Among them $Fe_d$ was identified as the highest influencing soil property. Since there is no equivalent reliable method to discriminate the forms of the soil Al-oxides their likely importance remains unclear.

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In Search of "Excess Competition" (과당경쟁(過當競爭)과 정부규제(政府規制))

  • Nam, II-chong;Kim, Jong-seok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 1991
  • Korean firms of all sizes, from virtually every industry, have used and are using the term "excessive competition" to describe the state of their industry and to call for government interventions. Moreover, the Korean government has frequently responded to such calls in various ways favorable to the firms, such as controlling entry, curbing capacity investments, or allowing collusion. Despite such interventions' impact on the overall efficiency on the Korean economy as well as on the wealth distribution among diverse groups of economic agents, the term "excessive competition", the basis for the interventions, has so far escaped rigorous scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to clarify the notion of "excessive competition" and "over-investment" which usually accompanies "excessive competition", and to examine the circumstances under which they might occur. We first survey the cases where the terms are most widely used and proceed to examine those cases to determine if competition is indeed excessive, and if so, what causes "excessive competition". Our main concern deals with the case in which the firms must make investment decisions that involve large sunk costs while facing uncertain demand. In order to analyze this case, we developed a two period model of capacity precommitment and the ensuing competition. In the first period, oligopolistic firms make capacity investments that are irreversible. Demand is uncertain in period 1 and only the distribution is known. Thus, firms must make investment decisions under uncertainty. In the second period, demand is realized, and the firms compete with quantity under realized demand and capacity constraints. In the above setting, we find that there is "no over-investment," en ante, and there is "no excessive competition," ex post. As measured by the information available in period 1, expected return from investment of a firm is non-negative, overall industry capacity does not exceed the socially optimal level, and competition in the second period yields an outcome that gives each operating firm a non-negative second period profit. Thus, neither "excessive competition" nor "over-investment" is possible. This result will generally hold true if there is no externality and if the industry is not a natural monopoly. We also extend this result by examining a model in which the government is an active participant in the game with a well defined preference. Analysis of this model shows that over-investment arises if the government cannot credibly precommit itself to non-intervention when ex post idle capacity occurs, due to socio-political reasons. Firms invest in capacities that exceed socially optimal levels in this case because they correctly expect that the government will find it optimal for itself to intervene once over-investment and ensuing financial problems for the firms occur. Such planned over-investment and ensuing government intervention are the generic problems under the current system. These problems are expected to be repeated in many industries in years to come, causing a significant loss of welfare in the long run. As a remedy to this problem, we recommend a non-intervention policy by the government which creates and utilizes uncertainty. Based upon an argument which is essentially the same as that of Kreps and Wilson in the context of a chain-store game, we show that maintaining a consistent non-intervention policy will deter a planned over-investment by firms in the long run. We believe that the results obtained in this paper has a direct bearing on the public policies relating to many industries including the petrochemical industry that is currently in the center of heated debates.

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AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE TENSILE STRENGTH OF POSTERIOR RESIN-BASED COMPOSITES (구치부 복합레진의 인장강도에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Kim, Jae-Gon;Lee, Yong-Hee;Yang, Cheol-Hee;Baik, Byeong-Ju
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.464-470
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the tensile strength of light-cured restorative posterior resin-based composites. Five commercially available light-cured composites(Denfil : DF, P60 : PS, Unifil S : US, Z100 : ZH, Z250 : ZT) were used. Rectangular tension test specimens were fabricated in a teflon mold giving 5mm in gauge length and 2mm in thickness. Specimens were subjected to the 5,000 thermal cycles between $5^{\circ}C$ and $55^{\circ}C$ and the immersion time in each bath was 15 second per cycle. Tensile testing was carried out with Instron at a crosshead speed of 0.5mm/min and fractured surface were observed with scanning electron microscope. The obtained results were summarized as follows; 1. The tensile strength of PS was highest. PS was significantly higher than DF, US and ZH(p<0.05) but in the case of ZT was similar to PS(p>0.05). 2. The tensile strength DF was lowest. DF was significantly lower than PS, US, ZH and ZT(p<0.05). 3. The tensile strength of US and ZH were significantly lower than PS and ZT(p<0.05). but were significantly higher than DF(p<0.05). The tensile strength of US and ZH were similar(p>0.05).

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Error Analysis of Delivered Dose Reconstruction Using Cone-beam CT and MLC Log Data (콘빔 CT 및 MLC 로그데이터를 이용한 전달 선량 재구성 시 오차 분석)

  • Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Park, So-Ah;Kang, Sei-Kwon;Hwang, Tae-Jin;Lee, Me-Yeon;Kim, Kyoung-Joo;Bae, Hoon-Sik;Oh, Do-Hoon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.332-339
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    • 2010
  • We aimed to setup an adaptive radiation therapy platform using cone-beam CT (CBCT) and multileaf collimator (MLC) log data and also intended to analyze a trend of dose calculation errors during the procedure based on a phantom study. We took CT and CBCT images of Catphan-600 (The Phantom Laboratory, USA) phantom, and made a simple step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan based on the CT. Original plan doses were recalculated based on the CT ($CT_{plan}$) and the CBCT ($CBCT_{plan}$). Delivered monitor unit weights and leaves-positions during beam delivery for each MLC segment were extracted from the MLC log data then we reconstructed delivered doses based on the CT ($CT_{recon}$) and CBCT ($CBCT_{recon}$) respectively using the extracted information. Dose calculation errors were evaluated by two-dimensional dose discrepancies ($CT_{plan}$ was the benchmark), gamma index and dose-volume histograms (DVHs). From the dose differences and DVHs, it was estimated that the delivered dose was slightly greater than the planned dose; however, it was insignificant. Gamma index result showed that dose calculation error on CBCT using planned or reconstructed data were relatively greater than CT based calculation. In addition, there were significant discrepancies on the edge of each beam while those were less than errors due to inconsistency of CT and CBCT. $CBCT_{recon}$ showed coupled effects of above two kinds of errors; however, total error was decreased even though overall uncertainty for the evaluation of delivered dose on the CBCT was increased. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate dose calculation errors separately as a setup error, dose calculation error due to CBCT image quality and reconstructed dose error which is actually what we want to know.

Surgical outcome of severe pulmonary arterial hypertension secondary to left-to-right shunt lesions (심한 폐동맥 고혈압을 동반한 좌우 단락 질환 환자의 수술 후 경과)

  • Lee, Cha Gon;Jeong, Su-In;Huh, June;Kang, I-Seok;Lee, Heung Jae;Yang, Ji-Hyuk;Jun, Tae Gook
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : Despite recent advances in pulmonary hypertension management and surgery, appropriate guidelines remain to be developed for operability in congenital heart disease with pulmonary artery hypertension (PAH). Our aim was to evaluate clinical outcomes of patients with severe PAH who underwent surgical closure of left-to-right shunt lesions (LRSL) on the basis of pulmonary reactivity. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed 21 patients who underwent surgical closure of LRSL with severe PAH (${\geq}8$ Wood unit) from January 1995 to April 2009. The median age at operation was 26 years. Atrial septal defect, ventricular septal defect (VSD), VSD and patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), and PDA was present in 11, 4, 4, and 2 patients, respectively. Results : Operability was based on vasoreactivity of PAH. Of the 21 patients, 5 showed response to pulmonary vasodilator therapy and 8 showed vasoreactivity after balloon occlusion of defects. The remaining 8 patients were considered operable because of significant left-to-right shunt (Qp/Qs ${\geq}1.5$). Five patients underwent total closure of defects and 16 were left with small residual shunts. The median follow-up duration was 32 months. There was no significant postoperative mortality or morbidity. Systolic pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) decreased in all but 2 patients. All patients except 1 showed improvement of New York Heart Association functional class. Conclusion : Closure of LRSL in patients with severe PAH on the basis of pulmonary vasoreactivity seems reasonable. PAP and clinical symptoms improved in most patients. Further research is needed for the evaluation of long-term results.