• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.32-45
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• 2014

The study attempts to interpret original location and landscape composition of Yowol-pavilion Garden under the premise that tablet and poetry are important criteria for inference of unique location and landscape composition of a pavilion garden. The study raises the meaning, status, and value of Yowol Pavilion Garden as a cultural asset. The results of the study are as follows. First, Yowol-pavilion Garden was a place where famous Confucius scholars in Joseon Dynasty in 16th Century, including Kim, Kyung-Woo, the owner of the garden, used to share the taste for the arts and poetries with their colleagues. Along with a main characteristic of Yowol Pavilion Garden as a hideout for the Confucius scholars who stayed away from a political turmoil, the new place characteristic of the garden, a bridgehead for the formation of regional identity, was discovered in the record of "Joseon-Hwanyeo-Seungram Honam-Eupji JangSeong-Eupji", As described in "The first creative poetry of Yowol-pavilion", the intention for the creation of Yowol-pavilion Garden and the motive for its landscape composition is interpreted as a space of rivalry where the world, reality and ideals are mixed up. Second, related to outstanding scenic factors and natural phenomena when taking a view from the pavilion, the name of the house 'Yowol', which means 'Greeting the moon rising on the Mt. Wolbong' is the provision of nature and taste for the arts, and is directly connected to the image of leaving the worldly. In other words, the name was identified to be the one that reflected the intention for landscape composition to follow the provision of nature separating from joy and sorrow of the mundane world. Third, as for the location, it was confirmed through "YeongGwang-Soksu-Yeoji-Seungram" that Yowol-pavilion Garden was a place where the person who made the pavilion prepared for relaxation after stepping down from a government post, and literature and various poetry show that it was also a place of outstanding scenic where Yellow-dragon River meandered facing Mt. Wolbong. Especially, according to an interview with a keeper, the visual perception frequency of the nightscape of Yowol-pavilion Garden is the highest when viewing by considering the east, the direction of Yellow-dragon River, as Suksigak[normal angle's view], towards Yowel-pavilion from the keeper's house. In addition, he said that the most beautiful landscape with high perception strength is when the moon came up from the left side of Yowol-pavilion, cuts across the Lagerstroemia india heal in front of Yowol-pavilion, and crosses the meridian between Mt. Wolbong peaks facing Yowol-pavilion. Currently, the exposure of Yowol-pavilion Garden is $SE\;141.2^{\circ}$, which is almost facing southeast. It is assumed that the exposure of Yowol-pavilion Garden was determined considering the optimized direction for appreciating the trace of the moon and the intention of securing the visibility as well as topographic conditions. Furthermore, it is presumed that the exposure of Yowol-pavilion Garden was determined so that the moon is reflected on the water of Yellow-dragon River and the moon and its reflection form a symmetry. Fourth, currently, Yowol-pavilion Garden is divided into 'inner garden sphere' composed of Yowol-pavilion, meeting place of the clan and administration building, and 'outer garden sphere' which is inclusive of entrance space, Crape Myrtle Community Garden and Pine Tree Forest in the back. Further, Yowol-pavilion Garden has been deteriorated as the edge was expanded to 'Small lake[Yong-so] and Gardens of aquatic plants sphere' and recently-created 'Yellow-dragon Pavilion and park sphere'. Fifth, at the time it was first made, Yowol-pavilion Garden was borderless gardens consisting of mountains and water taking a method of occupying a specific space of nearby nature centering around pavilion by embracing landscape viewed from the pavilion, but interpreted current complex landscapes are identified to be entirely different from landscapes of the original due to 'Different Changes', 'Fragmentation' and 'Apart piece' in many parts. Lastly, considering that Yowol-pavilion Garden belongs to the Cultural Properties Protection Zone, though not the restoration to the landscapes of the original described in tablet and literature record, at least taking a measure from the aspect of land use for minimizing adverse effect on landscape and visual damage is required.