• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동 불확실성

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High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction using distributed hydrological model WRF-Hydro and numerical weather forecast GDAPS (분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS를 활용한 고해상도 중기 유량 예측)

  • Kim, Sohyun;Kim, Bomi;Lee, Garim;Lee, Yaewon;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2024
  • High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction is crucial for sustainable water quality and aquatic ecosystem management. For reliable medium-range streamflow predictions, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of forcings and to effectively utilize weather forecast data with low spatio-temporal resolutions. In this study, we presented a comparative analysis of medium-range streamflow predictions using the distributed hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, and the numerical weather forecast Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) in the Geumho River basin, Korea. Multiple forcings, ground observations (AWS&ASOS), numerical weather forecast (GDAPS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), were ingested to investigate the performance of streamflow predictions with highresolution WRF-Hydro configuration. In terms of the mean areal accumulated rainfall, GDAPS was overestimated by 36% to 234%, and GLDAS reanalysis data were overestimated by 80% to 153% compared to AWS&ASOS. The performance of streamflow predictions using AWS&ASOS resulted in KGE and NSE values of 0.6 or higher at the Kangchang station. Meanwhile, GDAPS-based streamflow predictions showed high variability, with KGE values ranging from 0.871 to -0.131 depending on the rainfall events. Although the peak flow error of GDAPS was larger or similar to that of GLDAS, the peak flow timing error of GDAPS was smaller than that of GLDAS. The average timing errors of AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, and GLDAS were 3.7 hours, 8.4 hours, and 70.1 hours, respectively. Medium-range streamflow predictions using GDAPS and high-resolution WRF-Hydro may provide useful information for water resources management especially in terms of occurrence and timing of peak flow albeit high uncertainty in flood magnitude.

Selection of Hydraulic Routing Technique for Dam-Break Flood Analysis (댐붕괴 홍수해석을 위한 수리학적 추적기법의 선정)

  • Han, Kun-Yeun;Kim, Keuk-Soo;Park, Hong-Sung;Park, Jong-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1327-1331
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    • 2007
  • 최근 전 세계적으로 기후 이상으로 인한 여러 가지 문제점들이 대두되고 있다. 특히 지구 온난화의 결과로 발생되는 하계 집중호우와 대형 태풍의 빈발은 막대한 인명과 재산의 손실이라는 결과를 초래하고 있다. 국내에서도 이러한 기후 변동의 여파로 2002년 태풍 루사, 2004년 태풍 매미, 2006년 강원도 지역의 집중호우 등이 발생하였으며, 이를 통해 제방붕괴 및 댐 저수지 붕괴라는 결과를 초래하였다. 국내에서 그 동안 발생한 피해를 들면 일산제 붕괴(1990년), 임진강유역 홍수(1996년), 연천댐붕괴(1996년), 장현 동막저수지 붕괴(2002년), 강원지역의 집중호우로 인한 범람 피해(2006년) 등을 들 수가 있다. 이러한 피해들은 그 규모가 기하급수적으로 증가하고 있으며, 피해 뿐 아니라 복구로 인한 경제적 손실 또한 막대하다. 그러므로 이러한 분야의 심층적인 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 위에서 언급한 바 있는 댐 붕괴나 하천의 범람에 관한 그 간의 연구는 수문학적인 방법을 통해 수행되어 왔다. 그러나 이러한 수문학적 방법은 하천에서의 흐름 특히 홍수시 발생할 수 있는 하천 부정류 흐름의 특성을 규명하기에는 미흡한 점이 있으며, 또한 광범위한 수리 수문학적 홍수추적 기법들을 특정한 문제에 대해 적용하는 기준은 명백하게 제시되어 있지 않다. 그러나 특정 사고과정과 일반적인 지침들은 홍수추적 기법의 선정에 대한 폭을 좁힐 수 있게 하여 최종적으로 적절한 기법의 선정을 가능케 하여 준다. 본 연구에서는 수리학적 홍수추적 기법들을 적용하여 하천에서의 흐름 양상을 규명하였으며, 각 추적기법들의 적용성을 파악하고 실제 적용시 수반되는 문제점들을 제시하였다. 또한 각 기법들의 문제점과 효용성을 검토하여 최적의 적용방안의 제시하였다.결과를 가시화하기 위해서 챠트 기능을 추가하였으며 매개변수를 자동으로 산정할 수 있도록 시스템을 구축하였다. HyGIS-RAS는 국내 하천유역에 대해서 기구축 되어있는 하천관리지리정보시스템(RIMGIS)자료를 직접 활용하도록 구성되어있고 자료를 활용하여 제내지와 제외지를 통합하여 TIN분석을 실시하여 범람 홍수해석에 활용할 수 있도록 하였다. 하천수리해석의 기능을 보강하기 위해 역산조도계수 산정모형, 상류-사류 천이류 구간에 대한 부등류 해석모형, 범람 홍수류에 대한 홍수위 산정모형, 하천수리계산시의 불확실도 해석모형 등의 새로운 기능을 추가하여 제시하였다. 모든 입출력자료는 프로젝트 단위별로 운영되어 data의 관리가 손쉽도록 하였으며 결과를 DB에 저장하여 다른 모형에서도 적용할 수 있도록 하였다. 그리고 HyGIS-HMS 및 HyGIS-RAS 모형에서 강우-유출-하도 수리해석-범람해석 등이 일괄되게 하나의 시스템 내에서 구현될 수 있도록 하였다. 따라서 HyGIS와 통합된 수리, 수문모형은 국내 하천 및 유역에 적합한 시스템으로서 향후 HydroInformatics 구현을 염두에 둔 특화된 국내 수자원 분야 소프트웨어의 개발에 기본 토대를 제공할 것으로 판단된다.았다. 또한 저자들의 임상병리학적 연구결과가 다른 문헌에서 보고된 소아 신증후군의 연구결과와 큰 차이를 보이지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 자극에 차이가 있지 않나 추측되며 이에 관한 추후 연구가 요망된다. 총대장통과시간의 단축은 결장 분절 모두에서 줄어들어 나타났으나 좌측결장 통과시간의 감소 및 이로 인한 이 부위의 통과시간 비율의 저하가 가장 주요하였다. 이러한 결과는 차가운 생수 섭취가 주로 결장 근위부를 자극하는 효과를 발휘하는 것이 아닌가 해석된다. 이와 같은 연구결과를 통해 생

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A Time Series Forecasting Model with the Option to Choose between Global and Clustered Local Models for Hotel Demand Forecasting (호텔 수요 예측을 위한 전역/지역 모델을 선택적으로 활용하는 시계열 예측 모델)

  • Keehyun Park;Gyeongho Jung;Hyunchul Ahn
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.31-47
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    • 2024
  • With the advancement of artificial intelligence, the travel and hospitality industry is also adopting AI and machine learning technologies for various purposes. In the tourism industry, demand forecasting is recognized as a very important factor, as it directly impacts service efficiency and revenue maximization. Demand forecasting requires the consideration of time-varying data flows, which is why statistical techniques and machine learning models are used. In recent years, variations and integration of existing models have been studied to account for the diversity of demand forecasting data and the complexity of the natural world, which have been reported to improve forecasting performance concerning uncertainty and variability. This study also proposes a new model that integrates various machine-learning approaches to improve the accuracy of hotel sales demand forecasting. Specifically, this study proposes a new time series forecasting model based on XGBoost that selectively utilizes a local model by clustering with DTW K-means and a global model using the entire data to improve forecasting performance. The hotel demand forecasting model that selectively utilizes global and regional models proposed in this study is expected to impact the growth of the hotel and travel industry positively and can be applied to forecasting in other business fields in the future.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

A Study on Methodology for Improving Demand Forecasting Models in the Designated Driver Service Market (대리운전 시장의 지역별 수요 예측 모형의 성능 향상을 위한 방법론 연구)

  • Min-Seop Kim;Ki-Kun Park;Jae-Hyeon Heo;Jae-Eun Kwon;Hye-Rim Bae
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, the Designated Driver Services employ dynamic pricing, which adapts in real-time based on nearby driver availability, service user volume, and current weather conditions during the user's request. The uncertain volatility is the main cause of price increases, leading to customer attrition and service refusal from driver. To make a good Designated Driver Services, development of a demand forecasting model is required. In this study, we propose developing a demand forecasting model using data from the Designated Driver Service by considering normal and peak periods, such as rush hour and rush day, as prior knowledge to enhance the model performance. We propose a new methodology called Time-Series with Conditional Probability(TSCP), which combines conditional probability and time-series models to enhance performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted with real Designated Driver Service data, and the result demonstrated that our method outperforms the existing time-series models such as SARIMA, Prophet. Therefore, our study can be considered for decision-making to facilitate proactive response in Designated Driver Services.

The Study on the Balance of Ambidextrous Strategy of Exploration and Exploitation for Startup Performance (조직의 탐색과 활용에 대한 양손잡이 전략의 균형이 스타트업 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Sung Chul;Lee, Woo Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 2021
  • The organizational ambidexterity is an organizational strategy designed to pursue exploration activities to seize new opportunities and exploitation activities to efficiently use resources. Most of these ambidextrous structures have been studied for large corporations with slack resources, and there are still not many studies on the necessity of an ambidextrous structure for startups with relatively low-level resources. However, recently, the startup ecosystem is being advanced globally, and the amount of VC investment is rapidly increasing. This is a time when a lot of venture fund is invested in startups and a startup-friendly environment for rapid growth is created. This is the time to discuss the necessity and applicability of an ambidextrous organizational structure for startups. Therefore, this study conducted a hypothesis test whether the importance and necessity of balance that startups solving market problems with new ideas and utilizing accumulated resources have. To conduct this study, we analyzed 140 startups data gathered from the survey and the moderation effect was also analyzed. As a result of the study, it was verified that the balance of startup exploration and exploitation had a significant effect on startup performance, and the moderating effect of environmental dynamics was found to have a significant effect on the relationship with non-financial performance. Therefore, for startups with insufficient resources, it was concluded that the surplus resources generated in the process of a firm's growth should be effectively utilized and the balance between exploration and exploitation should be balanced from the initial stage of searching for a new business. In other words, it was confirmed that it is important for continuous growth and survival to seek the structure of an ambidextrous organization in order to internalize a mechanism that enables startups to pursue both effectiveness and efficiency in the long term. This study suggests a strategic direction for the growth of startups from the perspective of organizational structure. We expect that this meaningful results on the relationship between the ambidextrous capabilities of startups and performance contribute to the growth of startups in the rapidly growing startup venture environment.

Statistical Characteristics of East Sea Mesoscale Eddies Detected, Tracked, and Grouped Using Satellite Altimeter Data from 1993 to 2017 (인공위성 고도계 자료(1993-2017년)를 이용하여 탐지‧추적‧분류한 동해 중규모 소용돌이의 통계적 특성)

  • LEE, KYUNGJAE;NAM, SUNGHYUN;KIM, YOUNG-GYU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2019
  • Energetic mesoscale eddies in the East Sea (ES) associated with strong mesoscale variability impacting circulation and environments were statistically characterized by analyzing satellite altimeter data collected during 1993-2017 and in-situ data obtained from four cruises conducted between 2015 and 2017. A total of 1,008 mesoscale eddies were detected, tracked, and identified and then classified into 27 groups characterized by mean lifetime (L, day), amplitude (H, m), radius (R, km), intensity per unit area (EI, $cm^2/s^2/km^2$), ellipticity (e), eddy kinetic energy (EKE, TJ), available potential energy (APE, TJ), and direction of movement. The center, boundary, and amplitude of mesoscale eddies identified from satellite altimeter data were compared to those from the in-situ observational data for the four cases, yielding uncertainties in the center position of 2-10 km, boundary position of 10-20 km, and amplitude of 0.6-5.9 cm. The mean L, H, R, EI, e, EKE, and APE of the ES mesoscale eddies during the total period are $95{\pm}104$ days, $3.5{\pm}1.5cm$, $39{\pm}6km$, $0.023{\pm}0.017cm^2/s^2/km^2$, $0.72{\pm}0.07$, $23{\pm}21TJ$, and $588{\pm}250TJ$, respectively. The ES mesoscale eddies tend to move following the mean surface current rather than propagating westward. The southern groups (south of the subpolar front) have a longer L, larger H, R, and higher EKE, APE; and stronger EI than those of the northern groups and tend to move a longer distance following surface currents. There are exceptions to the average characteristics, such as the quasi-stationary groups (the Wonsan Warm, Wonsan Cold, Western Japan Basin Warm, and Northern Subpolar Frontal Cold Eddy groups) and short-lived groups with a relatively larger H, higher EKE, and APE and stronger EI (the Yamato Coastal Warm, Central Yamato Warm, and Eastern Japan Basin Coastal Warm eddy groups). Small eddies in the northern ES hardly resolved using the satellite altimetry data only, were not identified here and discussed with potential over-estimations of the mean L, H, R, EI, EKE, and APE. This study suggests that the ES mesoscale eddies 1) include newly identified groups such as the Hokkaido and the Yamato Rise Warm Eddies in addition to relatively well-known groups (e.g., the Ulleung Warm and the Dok Cold Eddies); 2) have a shorter L; smaller H, R, and lower EKE; and stronger EI and higher APE than those of the global ocean, and move following surface currents rather than propagating westward; and 3) show large spatial inhomogeneity among groups.

A Study on Design Education Re-engineering by Multi-disciplinary Approach (다학제적 접근을 통한 대학디자인 교육혁신 프로그램 연구)

  • Lee, Soon-Jong;Kim, Jong-Won;Chu, Wu-Jin;Chae, Sung-Zin;Yoon, Su-Hyun
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.20 no.3 s.71
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    • pp.299-314
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    • 2007
  • For the past 20 years, the growth and development of university-design-educational institutes contributed to the industrial development of our country. Due to the technological fluctuation and changes in the industrial structure in the latter half of the 20th century, the enterprise is demanding professionally-oriented design manpower. The principle which appears from instances of the advanced nations is to accommodate the demands in social changes and apply them to educational design programs. In order to respond promptly to the industrial demand especially, the advanced nations adopted "multidisciplinary design education programs" to lead innovation in the area of design globally. The objective of the research consequently is to suggest an educational system and a program through which the designer can be educated to obtain complex knowledge and the technique demanded by the industry and enterprise. Nowadays in order to adapt to a new business environment, designers specially should have both the knowledge and techniques in engineering and business administration. We suggest that the IPDI, a multidisciplinary design educational system and program is made up of the coordinated operation of major classes, on-the-job training connection, educational system for research base creation, renovation design development program for the application and the synthesis of alternative proposals about the training facility joint ownership by connecting with the education of design, business administration and engineering.

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A Study on the Prediction of Suitability Change of Forage Crop Italian Ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) using Spatial Distribution Model (공간분포모델을 활용한 사료작물 이탈리안 라이그라스(Lolium multiflorum L.)의 재배적지 변동예측연구)

  • Kim, Hyunae;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2014
  • Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.