• Title/Summary/Keyword: 벡터오차수정

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An Empirical Analysis of the Regulation Effects on Webboard Games using VECM (벡터오차수정모형을 활용한 웹보드게임 규제영향에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Yoo, Byungjoon;Jeon, Seongmin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2014
  • Sales of online games companies that began from the small and medium-sized ventures, have grown to billions or hundreds of million dollars to target the global market. The issues related with industrial policies and regulations for game industry gain attentions. In particular, the Korean government has strengthened the relevant regulations of the webboard game service across many departments within the government such as Media Rating Commission, Game Products Administrative Committee, Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Sports, and Ministry of Female and Family. In this study, we analyze the effects of government regulation on webboard games using a VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). We have acquired the Gametrix time-series data during a year since July 2013. Having the co-integration estimated in the analysis process, we attempt to identify the long-term equilibrium relationship within webboard game industry and predict use time in near future. The results show that the use time has decreased to a third to a fourth comparing to the initial value at the beginning point in 2013. Two representative webboard games are exposed to the significant risks to have less or no use time. Additionally, we discuss the issues of the overall game industry influenced by the changes of webboard games.

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The Impact of the Supply Regulation on the Price in Farming Olive Flounder (출하량 조절이 양식 넙치가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Seokkyu
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.709-725
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    • 2015
  • This study is to analyse the relationship between the price and the supply in the farming Olive Flounder's production area market. The data used in this study correspond to daily price and supply quantity covering time period from January 1, 2007 to June 30. 2013. The analysis methods of cointegration and vector error correction model are employed. The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows: First, the price and the supply follow random walks and they are integrated of order 1. Second, the price and the supply are cointegrated. Third, vector error correction model suggests that the relationship between the price change ration and the supply quantity change ratio has negative and feedback effect exists in the long-run, but the disequilibrium between the price and the supply is corrected by the supply quantity. Finally, vector error correction model suggests that the supply quantity leads the price in the short-run. This indicates that the decrease(increase) of the supply quantity results in the increase(decrease) of the price.

Effects of the Exchange Rate and Industrial Activity on Export to and Import from the Southeast Asia Via Korean Port (환율과 경기가 우리나라의 대 동남아시아 항만 수출입에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.207-218
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    • 2011
  • This paper investigates the determinants of trade on Southeast Asia via Korean ports using monthly data. I employ Johansen cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. Johansen(1988) and Johansen and Juselius(1990) propose two statistics for testing the number of cointegrating vectors: the trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics. The null hypothesis that there is no cointegrating vector should be rejected at the 5% level. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between trade and variables. This also suggests that these variables have a meaningful equilibrium relationship between trade and variables would not move too far away from each other, displaying a comovement phenomenon for the export and import. Apparently, the error correction term reflects market information in a state of disequilibrium that is bound to be corrected when moving toward the long-run level.

A Study on Price Discovery and Interactions Among Natural Gas Spot Markets in North America (북미 천연가스 현물시장간의 가격발견과 동태적 상호의존성에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Haesun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.799-826
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    • 2006
  • Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among eight North American natural gas spot market prices are examined. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in excess demand regions and move to excess supply regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region represented by Chicago spot market is the most important market for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania is important in price discovery, especially for markets in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Malin Hub in Oregon is important for the western markets including the AECO Hub in Alberta, Canada.

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Initial Codebook Design by Modified splitting Method (수정된 미소분리 방법에 의한 초기 부호책 설계)

  • 조제황
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.69-72
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    • 2002
  • We propose a modified splitting method to obtain an initial codebook, which is used to design a codebook. The principle of the proposed method is that the more representative vectors are assigned to the class, which has the mere member training vectors or a lower squared error. The conventional K-means algorithm and the method provided from reference (5) are used to estimate the performance of the designed codebook. In thin work, the proposed method shows better results than the conventional splitting method in all experiments.

Causal Relationships between Vessel Export and Economic Growth in Korean Shipbuilding Industry (우리나라 조선산업에서 선박수출과 경제성장의 인과성)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2008
  • This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between vessel export and economic growth using annual data over the period from 1977 to 2006. Tests for ADF unit-roots, the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error correction model and impulse response function are presented. The findings of the Granger test suggest that vessel export Granger-causes economic growth in the short-run and economic growth Granger-causes exports in the short and long-run. The empirical results of impulse-response analysis show that the vessel export to a shock in real GDP responds positively and the real GDP responds positively to the shocks in vessel export. Also, the results indicate that the impact of vessel export shock on the real GDP is short-lived.

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Causal Analysis between the Korean and the U.S. Monthly Business Conditions (한미 월간 경기동향의 선행성 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2009
  • This study attempts to perform the statistical test for the causality between the Korean and the U.S. business conditions in association with the lead-lag relationship between the domestic stock price and the business condition. Their causal relationships are clearly identified after the outbreak of the IMF financial crisis. The vector autoregression for the corresponding period appears to reflect the strong interrelationships between the market variables and the dependency of the domestic business conditions on the U.S. market. The estimation results validate the leading effect of the stock price and the U.S. business behavior.

Effects of Exchange Rate, GDP, ODI on Export to the East Asia: Application the Panel FMOLS Approach (환율, GDP, 해외직접투자가 한국의 대동아시아 수출에 미치는 영향: 패널 FMOLS기법의 적용)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.307-322
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine determinants of export to the East Asia region, using panel unit root, panel cointegration framework, panel VECM (vector error correction model), panel FMOLS (fully modified OLS). Different panel unit root tests confirm that the data series are integrated processes with unit roots. When applying cointegration tests to long-run effect for aggregate panel data, a primary concern is to construct the estimators in a way that does not constrain the transitional dynamics to be similar among different countries of the panel. The regression equations are estimated by various panel cointegration estimators. The panel data causality results reveal that exchange rates has unidirectional effects on export and GDP, and there exists bidirectional causality between export and GDP. Also, the results from the panel FMOLS tests overwhelmingly reject the null hypothesis of zero coefficient. The panel cointegrating vectors show that the export has positive relationship with the GDP and ODI (overseas direct investment).

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The Analysis of the Relation between Regional Industrial Diversity and Regional Business Cycle (지역의 산업다양성과 지역경기변동의 관계 분석)

  • Woo, Youngjin;Kim, Euijune
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of regional industrial diversity on regional business cycle response to national volatility. We employed mean group and pooled mean group estimators of panel vector error-correction models in order to control unobserved heterogeneity of the port cities, such as Pusan, Ulsan and Incheon. The results show that in various industrial regions, short-term fluctuations in the unemployment rate are small compared to other regions. On the contrary, long-term volatility of manufacturing production index is low in those regions.

An Estimation for Highway Trip Demand Functions Based upon Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석을 통한 고속도로 통행수요함수의 추정)

  • Lee, Jai-Min;Park, Soo-Shin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2005
  • The objective of this study is to estimate highway trip demand functions in Korea. In order to estimate them, I propose various socio-economic variables that affect the highway trip demand functions. I use the unit root test for each variable and the cointegration test to and the relationships among variables. Finally, I use the vector error correction model, to get the highway trip demand functions. The implication which I derive from the estimation is that real GDP and highway tolls have positive and negative effects, respectively. on the highway trip demand.