• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.531-565
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• 2011

All previous studies analyzing multivariate time series data of EUA (European Union Allowance) price commonly used endogenous variables within the four variables and included the period from April to June of 2006 in the analysis, when the price distortion occurred. This study uses graph theory and structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyze the daily time series data of the EUA (European Union Allowance) price. As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid the EUA price distortion of Phase 1 period (2005~2007). Further, the monthly data including the economic variables as endogenous variables are analyzed.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.8
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• pp.147-156
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• 2016

This study analyzed the impact of changes in the construction business on construction company insolvency according to their size using the vector error correction model. First, this study applied EDF (Expected Default Frequency), which was calculated by KMV (Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek) model, as a variable to indicate the insolvency of construction companies. This study set 30 construction companies listed to KOSPI/KOSDAQ for estimating the EDF by size and construction companies were divided into two groups according to their size. To examine the construction business cycles, the amount of construction orders according to the type-residential, non-residential, and civil work- was used as a variable. The serial data was retrieved from TS2000 established by the Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Korea. The analysis period was between the second quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2015. As a result of calculating the EDF of construction companies by size, as it is generally known, the large-sized construction companies showed lower levels of insolvency than relatively smaller-sized construction companies. On the other hand, impulse response analysis based on VECM confirmed that the level of insolvency of large-scaled companies is more sensitive to business fluctuations than relatively smaller-sized construction companies, particularly changes in the residential construction market. Hence it is a major factor affecting the changes in insolvency of large-sized construction companies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.3-11
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• 2013

The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.181-200
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• 2003

Comovement of international stock market prices has been lately a major controversy in the global stock market. This paper explores whether the common trend has really existed among the US, Japan and Korea's stock markets using the econometric techniques such as VAR, VECM as applied. Pair of indices from the exchange market and the over-the-counter market in each country has been tested, and the exchange market only has been turned out that the common trend existed. The dynamic analyses using the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and the forecast error decomposition have followed to show that the US stock market has played some important role in the Korea and Japan's market in the exchange as well as in the OTC market. The results of the paper imply that the more careful investigation with respect to the co-integration may be necessary in the global market integration studies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.22-30
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• 2014

This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the correlation between the condition of the domestic construction market and the expansion of overseas projects within construction companies, based on the vector error correction model. The analysis results verified that, in the post-IMF crisis period, domestic construction companies took on more overseas projects only when the residential construction market slowed down. Compared to the pre-crisis period, construction companies grew more responsive to the condition of the domestic market for residential construction, and they took on more overseas construction projects when the domestic market slumped. This is because the business portfolios of Korean construction companies' render them highly vulnerable to the condition of the residential construction market. When the domestic residential market slows down, the business condition of construction companies quickly takes a turn for the worse, and to cope with this, they turn to overseas projects to compensate for the slowing of the domestic market. As the analysis shows, expanding overseas construction projects as a way to turn around business condition amid a slow residential construction market actually undermines the management of the companies even further. In other words, shifting business focus toward an overseas market during a hard time might be useful for securing cash flow, but might not help to restore profitability. Thus, construction companies need to carefully manage their level of business diversification to ensure strategic flexibility.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.657-677
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• 2015

We employ a 3 regime-threshold vector error correction models (TVECM) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic adjustments of three marker crude oil prices such as WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent and Dubai. Especially we deal with 3 combinations of oil prices including WTI-Brent, WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai in order to analyze the dynamic adjustments of the prices based on the effects of the price spreads among these crude oil prices. Our daily spot prices data run from 2001.1.3 to 2014.12.31. We found that each combination is cointegrated over the period. WTI had dropped significantly in 2010 which had affected the movements of the spreads. To accomodate this fact, we divide the period into two sub-periods: 2000.1.3-2009.12.31 and 2010.1.1-2014.12.31. It is found that each combination is cointegrated in both sub-periods. Moroever, in the first sub-period, all three oil prices are shown to follow nonlinear dynamic adjustments. In the second sub-period, however, TVECM is better than VECM(vector error correction model) for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai while VECM performs better for WTI-Brent. The transaction costs are estimated to be reduced for the second sub-period for WTI-Dubai and Brent-Dubai compared to the first sub-period.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.165-182
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• 2016

This study examines the competitiveness and cooperativeness among the container ports in East Asia by analyzing their monthly dynamics in eight years (2008-2015). Time series data on container throughput divided into origin and destination (O/D), such as the top six Chinese ports and the transshipment (T/S) ports such as Hong Kong, Busan, and Singapore, are computed with two methods based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The first Granger causality test results show that Busan T/S has significant bilateral relations with three Chinese O/D ports; and significant unidirectional relations with three other O/D ports. Shenzhen port has significant bilateral relations with Singapore, and has a significant unidirectional relation with Hong Kong port. Co-integrating test results showed that Busan holds negative co-integration with all Chinese O/D ports. Impulse response function (IRF) results show an opposite direction between paired ports. The ratios of the impulse from T/S ports are significantly high to one another in the short-run, but its power declines as time passes. The ratio of the impulse from the Chinese ports to T/S ports is less significant in the short-run period, however, it becomes more significant as time passes. The significance of most shocks was high in the second period, but was diluted after the sixth period.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.413-440
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• 2010

Since 2000, as importance of sourcing energy emphasized caused by instability of international oil price, interests toward Caspian countries as an alternative markets has increased. Especially, Azerbaijan, as middle Asian emerging exporting country, has performed drastic economic boom because of massive amount of foreign capital flowed in and construction of BTC pipeline. However, despite this economic surge, there are unbalanced economy which is merely focusing on energy industry and pressure from increase in real exchange rate and inflation. In order to analyze the sustainability of Azerbaijan economy, the total sample time period of this paper is from January 2001 to December 2007 and the term is divided into before and after BTC line construction. Vector Error-Correction Model has been applied to analysis confirming short-term and long-term effect. As a result, Azerbaijan now face the symptoms of the recession during the time period and this is due to high oil price and increase in export influenced by BTC oil pipeline resulting in decrease in real interest rate. This conclusion is to affect competitiveness of manufacturing industry, base industry for economic proliferation, in a negative way.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.144-154
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• 2018

While the local construction market has lost its steam in recent years, it is discussed that the overseas construction projects should be activated by using the Official Development Assistance (ODA) in terms of finding a new way. This study empirically identifies the relationship between ODA and the foreign construction orders, and discovers the effectiveness of orders for overseas construction projects using the ODA. Therefore, based on the past 25 years of time-series data on Asia, the VECM model was used to identify the relationship between the Asia country's ODA and construction orders. As a result, it has shown a lower-than-expected correlation between the value of ODA and the construction orders. There are several reasons for this; This is because profit-purpose construction projects and ODA for public welfare are fundamentally different, and the timing of ODA applications and overseas construction orders are different. Also, compared to other developed countries, Korea has far less experience and scale of ODA. At last, there are huge differences in the size of ODA and construction orders. In conclusion, although the effectiveness of overseas construction orders based on ODA was not clearly disclosed, the significance of this study is that it attempted to conduct a empirical study on the relationship between ODA and overseas construction orders. Further relationships are expected to be drawn through the accumulation of future ODA experience and the supplementation of time series data, which can provide on a theoretical and practical basis.