• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.485-495
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• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.445-455
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• 2011

A probabilistic classification framework is presented that can combine temporal contextual information derived from an existing land-cover map in order to improve the classification accuracy of land-cover classes that can not be discriminated well when using spectral information only. The transition probability is computed by using the existing land-cover map and training data, and considered as a priori probability. By combining the a priori probability with conditional probability computed from spectral information via a Bayesian combination rule, the a posteriori probability is finally computed and then the final land-cover types are determined. The method presented in this paper can be adopted to any probabilistic classification algorithms in a simple way, compared with conventional classification methods that require heavy computational loads to incorporate the temporal contextual information. A case study for crop classification using time-series MODIS data sets is carried out to illustrate the applicability of the presented method. The classification accuracies of the land-cover classes, which showed lower classification accuracies when using only spectral information due to the low resolution MODIS data, were much improved by combining the temporal contextual information. It is expected that the presented probabilistic method would be useful both for updating the existing past land-cover maps, and for improving the classification accuracy.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.411-422
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• 2016

Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.27 no.8
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• pp.855-863
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• 2000

Although Behavior-Knowledge Space (BKS) method, one of well known decision combination methods, does not need any assumptions in combining the multiple experts, it should theoretically build exponential storage spaces for storing and managing jointly observed K decisions from K experts. That is, combining K experts needs a (K+1)st-order probability distribution. However, it is well known that the distribution becomes unmanageable in storing and estimating, even for a small K. In order to overcome such weakness, it has been studied to decompose a probability distribution into a number of component distributions and to approximate the distribution with a product of the component distributions. One of such previous works is to apply a conditional independence assumption to the distribution. Another work is to approximate the distribution with a product of only first-order tree dependencies or second-order distributions as shown in [1]. In this paper, higher order dependency than the first-order is considered in approximating the distribution and a dependency-based framework is proposed to optimally approximate the (K+1)st-order probability distribution with a product set of dth-order dependencies where ($1{\le}d{\le}K$), and to combine multiple experts based on the product set using the Bayesian formalism. This framework was experimented and evaluated with a standardized CENPARMI data base.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.175-180
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• 2012

Currently datamining sector is interested and applied in many areas. In other words, datamining is predicting the future to discover hidden correlations and make decisions. To interpret data on various aspects can be converted to real expectation. Analyzing the results even a simple can be found big difference. The properties associated with breast cancer by about applying bayesian theory is used to predict the probability. In the past patient data, doctors may be obtaining by applying evidence-based care for patients with the results of examination and By using the the past patient data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.261-274
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• 1997

Most of the data sets to which the conventional discriminant rules have been applied contain only those which belong to one and only one class among the classes of interest. However the extension of the bivalence to multivlaence like Fuzzy concepts strongly influence the traditional view that an object must belong to only class. Thus the goal of this paper is to develop new discriminant rules which can handle the data each object of which may belong to moer than two classes with certain degrees of belongings. A calibration model is used for the relationship between the feature vector of an object and the degree of belongings and a Bayesian inference is made with the Metropolis algorithm on the degree of belongings when a feature vector of an object whose membership is unknown is given. An evalution criterion is suggested for the rules developed in this paper and comparision study is carried using two training data sets.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.2335-2342
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• 2006

The current web is accumulating abundant information. In particular, text based documents are a type used very easily and frequently by human. So, numerous researches are progressed to retrieve the text documents using many methods, such as probability, statistics, vector similarity, Bayesian, and so on. These researches however, could not consider both subject and semantic of documents. So, to overcome the previous problems, we propose the document similarity method for semantic retrieval of document users want. This is the core method of document clustering. This method firstly, expresses a hierarchy semantically of document content ut gives the important hierarchy domain of document to weight. With this, we could measure the similarity between documents using both the domain weight and concepts coincidence in the domain hierarchies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.275-276
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• 2009

This paper provides a new approach for predicting the corrosion resistivity of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayesian theory when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account into the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined from the samples obtained from the Latin hypercube sampling technique. The new method may be very useful in designing important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.539-544
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• 2004

We investigate a visual object tracking algorithm based upon particle filters, namely CONDENSATION, in order to combine multiple observation models such as active contours of digitally subtracted image and the particle measurement of object color. The former is applied to matching the contour of the moving target and the latter is used to independently enhance the likelihood of tracking a particular color of the object. Particle filters are more efficient than any other tracking algorithms because the tracking mechanism follows Bayesian inference rule of conditional probability propagation. In the experimental results, it is demonstrated that the suggested contour tracking particle filters prove to be robust in the cluttered environment of robot vision.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2012.06b
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• pp.336-338
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 고차 데이터 분류를 위해 순차적 베이지만 샘플링 기반의 진화연산 기법을 이용한 하이퍼네트워크 모델의 학습 알고리즘을 제시한다. 제시하는 방법에서는 모델의 조건부 확률의 사후(posterior) 분포를 최대화하도록 학습이 진행된다. 이를 위해 사전(prior) 분포를 문제와 관련된 사전지식(prior knowledge) 및 모델 복잡도(model complexity)로 정의하고, 측정된 모델의 분류성능을 우도(likelihood)로 사 용하며, 측정된 사전분포와 우도를 이용하여 모델의 적합도(fitness)를 정의한다. 이를 통해 하이퍼네트워크 모델은 고차원 데이터를 효율적으로 학습 가능할 뿐이 아니라 모델의 학습시간 및 분류성능이 개선될 수 있다. 또한 학습 시에 파라미터로 주어지던 하이퍼에지의 구성 및 모델의 크기가 학습과정 중에 적응적으로 결정될 수 있다. 제안하는 학습방법의 검증을 위해 본 논문에서는 약 25,000개의 유전자 발현정보 데이터셋에 대한 분류문제에 모델을 적용한다. 실험 결과를 통해 제시하는 방법이 기존 하이퍼네트워크 학습 방법 뿐 아니라 다른 모델들에 비해 우수한 분류 성능을 보여주는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 또한 다양한 실험을 통해 사전분포로 사용된 사전지식이 모델 학습에 끼치는 영향을 분석한다.