• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.2 s.73
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• pp.77-86
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• 2004

In this study, we applied the Bayesian Network for the case of the mode choice models using the Seoul metropolitan area's house trip survey Data. Sex and age were used lot the independent variables for the explanation or the mode choice, and the relationships between the mode choice and the travellers' social characteristics were identified by the Bayesian Network. Furthermore, trip and mode's characteristics such as time and fare were also used for independent variables and the mode choice models were developed. It was found that the Bayesian Network were useful tool to overcome the problems which were in the traditional mode choice models. In particular, the various transport policies could be evaluated in the very short time by the established relation-ships. It is expected that the Bayesian Network will be utilized as the important tools for the transport analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.449-462
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• 2001

베이지안 다중 검정방법(multiple hypothesis test)은 여러 통계모형에서 성공적인 결과를 주는 것으로 알려져있다. 일반적으로, 베이지안 가설검정은 고려중인 모형에 대한 사후확률을 계산하여 가장 높은 확률은 갖는 모형을 선택하기 때문에 귀무가설의 기각여부에만 관심을 가지는 고전적인 분산분석 검정과는 달리 좀 더 구체적인 모형을 선택할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 이 논문에서는 독립이면서 로그정규분포를 따르는 K($\geq$3)개 모집단의 모수에 대한 가설 검정방법으로 O’Hagan(1995)이 제안한 부분 베이즈 요인을 이용한 베이지안 방법을 제안한다. 이 때 모수에 대한 사전분포로는 무정보적 사전분포를 사용한다. 제안한 검정 방법의 유용성을 알아보기 위하여 실제 자료의 분석과 모의 실험을 이용하여 고전적인 검정방법과 그 결과를 비교한다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.161-175
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• 2001

Meta-analysis refers to quantitative methods for combining results from independent studies in order to draw overall conclusions. Hierarchical models including selection models are introduced and shown to be useful in such Bayesian meta-analysis. Semiparametric hierarchical models are proposed using the Dirichlet process prior. These rich class of models combine the information of independent studies, allowing investigation of variability both between and within studies, and weight function. Here we investigate sensitivity of results to unobserved studies by considering a hierachical selection model with including unknown weight function and use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop inference for the parameters of interest. Using Bayesian method, this model is used on a meta-analysis of twelve studies comparing the effectiveness of two different types of flouride, in preventing cavities. Clinical informative prior is assumed. Summaries and plots of model parameters are analyzed to address questions of interest.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.57-71
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• 2002

We introduce three types of exponential survival models, such as simple model, change-point model and finite mixture model in this paper. Among these models, in order to choose the best model, the model choice method is proposed using Gelfand and Ghosh(1998)'s idea. Then to avoid the computational difficulties, data augmentation method (Tanner and Wong, 1987) and Gibbs sampler (Gelfand and Smith, 1990) are employed. Our methodology is applied to both simulated data and Stangl (1991)'s On-impramint Hydrochloride data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.335-349
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• 2003

In this paper, we use Bayesian method for model selection of poisson vs. negative binomial distribution, and normal, double exponential vs. cauchy distribution. The fractional Bayes factor of O'Hagan (1995) was applied to Bayesian model selection under the assumption of noninformative improper priors for all parameters in the models. Through the analyses of real data and simulation data, we examine the usefulness of the fractional Bayes factor in comparison with intrinsic Bayes factors of Berger and Pericchi (1996, 1998).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.427-436
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• 2000

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian model selection problem of lifetime distributions using fractional Bayes factor with noninformative prior when type II censored data are given. For a given type II censored data, we calculate the posterior probability of exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions and select the model which gives the highest posterior probability. Our proposed methodology is explained and applied to real data and simulated data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.101-115
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• 2003

Lately there has been much theoretical and applied interest in linear models with non-normal heavy tailed error distributions. Starting Zellner(1976)'s study, many authors have explored the consequences of non-normality and heavy-tailed error distributions. We consider hierarchical models including selection models under a skewed heavy-tailed e..o. distribution proposed originally by Chen, Dey and Shao(1999) and Branco and Dey(2001) with Dirichlet process prior(Ferguson, 1973) in order to use a meta-analysis. A general calss of skewed elliptical distribution is reviewed and developed. Also, we consider the detail computational scheme under skew normal and skew t distribution using MCMC method. Finally, we introduce one example from Johnson(1993)'s real data and apply our proposed methodology.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.753-763
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• 1997

컴퓨터의 발전에 따른 MCMC를 비동질적 포아송 과정에 이용하였다. 베이지안 추론에서 조건부 분포를 가지고 사후분포를 결정하는데 있어서의 계산 문제를 고려하였다. 특히 분포가 이중지수, 곰페르츠, 랄리, 감마, 그리고 검벨인 일반 순서통계량 모형에 대하여 깁스 샘플링과 메트로폴리스 알고리즘을 활용한 베이지안 계산과 모형선택을 제시하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.453-470
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• 2013

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the dose-effect relationship of cadmium to evaluate a benchmark dose(BMD). For this purpose, two dose-response curves commonly used in the toxicity study are fitted based on Bayesian methods to the data collected from the scientific literature on cadmium toxicity. Specifically, Bayesian meta-analysis and hierarchical modeling build an overall dose-effect relationship that use a piecewise linear model and Hill model, where the inter-study heterogeneity and inter-individual variability of dose and effect such as gender, age and ethnicity are accounted. Estimation of the unknown parameters is made by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based user-friendly software WinBUGS. Benchmark dose estimates are evaluated for various cut-offs and compared with different tested subpopulations with with gender, age and ethnicity based on these two Bayesian hierarchical models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.73-84
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• 2002

Linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients are frequently used in economic models due to sign or order constraints on the coefficients. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to selecting significant explanatory variables in linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients. Bayesian variable selection requires computation of posterior probability of each candidate model. We propose a method which computes all the necessary posterior model probabilities simultaneously. In specific, we obtain posterior samples form the most general model via Gibbs sampling algorithm (Gelfand and Smith, 1990) and compute the posterior probabilities by using the samples. A real example is given to illustrate the method.