• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.125-134
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• 2010

It is occurred bus arrival time errors when a bus arrives at a bus stop because of a variety of traffic condition such as traffic signal cycle, the time to get on and off a bus, a bus-only lane and so on. In this paper, bus delay time which is occurred as the result of traffic condition was estimated with Markov Chain process and bus arrival time at each bus stop was predicted with it. As the result of the study, it is confirmed to improve accuracy than the method of bus arrival time prediction with existing method (weighed moving average method) in case predicting bus arrival time using 7 by 7 and 9 by 9 matrixes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.656-659
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• 2017

현대 사회에서는 다양한 이동수단 중 지하철, 버스 등의 대중교통에 대한 수요가 높은 편이다. 본 연구의 배경이 되는 서울특별시의 경우에는 출퇴근 시, 과반 수 이상이 대중교통을 이용한다. 대중교통 이용량에는 날씨, 평일-주말, 연착, 도로현황 등 여러 가지에 원인을 둔다. 본 연구에서는 여러 요인 중에서도 날씨 데이터(기온, 강수량, 미세먼지)에 초점을 두어, 날씨에 따른 대중교통 이용량의 변화양상을 학습하여 예측하는 연구를 진행한다. 서울특별시 25개 자치구마다의 날씨 데이터와 대중교통 이용 데이터를 이용하여 Regression을 통한 데이터 학습을 진행하였으며, 학습된 모델을 통한 날씨에 따른 서울특별시 대중교통 이용량 예측에 따른 평균 오차율은 15.49%로 낮은 오차율을 가진다. 본 연구 결과는 날씨에 따른 버스와 지하철의 배차 간격 조절 등의 대중교통 배치 판단 결정에 기초자료로 사용될 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of KIBIM
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.12-19
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• 2018

The research aims to find implications of machine learning and urban big data as a way to construct the flexible transportation network system of smart city by responding the urban context changes. This research deals with a problem that existing a bus headway model is difficult to respond urban situations in real-time. Therefore, utilizing the urban big data and machine learning prototyping tool in weathers, traffics, and bus statues, this research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data is gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is implemented by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted several tests for bus delays prediction according to specific circumstances. As a result, possibilities of transportation system are discussed for promoting the urban efficiency and the citizens' convenience by responding to urban conditions.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.141-148
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• 2022

Global climate change caused by greenhouse gases(GHG) is getting serious. To prevent this, countries around the world are regulating GHG emissions. Korea has decided to reduce GHG emissions by 37% compared to BAU (Business As Usual) by 2030. The transportation sector accounted for 18.58% of the domestic GHG emission, and roads accounted for 93.75% of the total. Public transportation is also included in the target of GHG reduction, and this study was conducted to reduce GHG emissions of bus public transportation, which can reduce GHG emissions while reducing the cost of road transportation. In this study, a simulation was conducted to predict the optimal GHG emission compared to the waiting time of passengers by adjusting the bus dispatch interval by implementing a greenhouse gas simulation model using Any Logic. If a more precise model is implemented in the future, it is expected that it will be used to reduce bus GHG emissions.