• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.597-604
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• 2014

In this study, we investigate to show the limitations of current bus arrival time estimation model based on each bus route, and to propose a bus arrival time estimation model based on a bus stop to overcome these limitations. Using the characteristic of bus arrival time calculated on travel time between two bus stops, we develop a model to estimate bus arrival times with the data of all buses traveling the same section regardless of bus route numbers. In the proposed model, an estimated arrival time is calculated by weighted moving average method, and verification between observed value and estimated time is performed on the basis of RMSE. Error was reduced by up to 20% compared to the existing models and the data update period was reduced by more than half that is related to the accuracy of bus arrival time information. We expect to solve the following problems with the suggested method: sudden increase or decrease in arrival time of the bus, the difference of the expected arrival times at the same stop between two or more buses having different route numbers, and impossibility of offering information of a bus if the bus is not operated with the designated schedule.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.125-134
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• 2010

It is occurred bus arrival time errors when a bus arrives at a bus stop because of a variety of traffic condition such as traffic signal cycle, the time to get on and off a bus, a bus-only lane and so on. In this paper, bus delay time which is occurred as the result of traffic condition was estimated with Markov Chain process and bus arrival time at each bus stop was predicted with it. As the result of the study, it is confirmed to improve accuracy than the method of bus arrival time prediction with existing method (weighed moving average method) in case predicting bus arrival time using 7 by 7 and 9 by 9 matrixes.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.4 s.90
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• pp.117-127
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• 2006

Many large cities in Korea have implemented or planed to implement a bus information system(BIS) to improve service quality for bus Passengers, mainly by Providing bus arrival time at bus stations. In those systems, similar systematic errors to estimate the bus arrival time occur, which are caused by the cycle time to identify each bus location, the information processing time of the center system, and the cycle time to update the bus arrival information on each terminal. This paper investigated each cause sequentially and estimated three expectations related to the above three causes, respectively using the random incidence concept. Through a validation using real data from a BIS in a city in Korea, fairly amount of improvements on the bus arrival time estimation have been observed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.6 s.84
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• pp.81-89
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• 2005

Real-time bus arrival information within the Bus Information System (BIS) is an invaluable resource for users that demand accurate and up-to-date bus headway information while waiting at a bus stop. The associated benefits of such a system come in two folds, that is to 1) resolve the psychological uncertainty caused by the lack of real-time bus arrival information and 2) empower the user waiting at bus stops with the ability to reliably coordinate various tasks and errands, such as a quick trip into a convenience store or restroom without fear of missing a bus pick-up. This paper discusses the appropriate methodology with which to measure the economic value of reliable bus arrival information, with particular emphasis on the psychological uncertainty in users associated with the lack of real-time headway information at bus stops. Data regarding bus transit users' willingness to pay for such a service is obtained through questionnaire surveys, and the Contingent Valuation Method is used to analyze and derive the associated economic value. Our findings indicate the monetary value associated with a real-time bus arrival information system is approximately 132.5 won/min at the 0.3 significance level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.175-181
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• 2002

BIS(Bus arrival Information System) is a system that informs Passengers waiting at bus stops of the bus arrival time of next buses. However, when operating this system, it is not exactly known what type of bus arrival information should be provided. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the optimal bus arrival time to be informed for BIS. Analyzing Efficiency in the Seoul's Urban Bus Industry Using Data Envelopment Analysis. Two basic types of bus arrival information can be considered. One is Bus Locations : Where next buses are located and under what situation they are, such as the next bus departed from the previous stop, The other is Expected Arrival Time. Time to the arrivals of next buses. Characteristics of these two types of bus arrival time information provided for passengers waiting at bus stops for BIS are examined. The waiting time of passengers at bus stops is derived as a function of the bus arrival time to be informed. Some basic principles about the optimal bus arrival time to be informed are found. Finally, a case study assuming several simplifications is performed. One of the key findings is that there exists optimal arrival time to be informed other than the average arrival time. The optimal arrival time to be informed should be closer to the average arrival time for small and very large standard deviations and be earlier for certain amounts of standard deviations.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.189-196
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• 2017

BIS(Bus Information System) provides the different information related to buses including predictions of arriving times at stations. BIS have been deployed almost all cities in our country and played active roles to improve the convenience of public transportation systems. Moving average filters, Kalman filter and regression models have been representative in forecasting the arriving times of buses in current BIS. The accuracy in prediction of arriving times depends largely on the forecasting algorithms and traffic conditions considered when forecasting in BIS. In present BIS, the simple prediction algorithms are used only considering the passage times and distances between stations. The forecasting of arrivals, however, have been influenced by the traffic conditions such as traffic signals, traffic accidents and pedestrians ets., and missing data. To improve the accuracy of bus arriving estimates, there are big troubles in building models including the above problems. Hidden Markov Models have been effective algorithms considering various restrictions above. So, we have built the HMM forecasting models for bus arriving times in the current BIS. When building models, the data collected from Sunchean City at 2015 have been utilized. There are about 2298 stations and 217 routes in Suncheon city. The models are developed differently week days and weekend. And then the models are conformed with the data from different districts and times. We find that our HMM models can provide more accurate forecasting than other existing methods like moving average filters, Kalmam filters, or regression models. In this paper, we propose Hidden Markov Model to obtain more precise and accurate model better than Moving Average Filter, Kalman Filter and regression model. With the help of Hidden Markov Model, two different sections were used to find the pattern and verified using Bootstrap process.

• 한국ITS학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.135-140
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• 2005

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.7-18
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• 2002

To activate public transportation service, Bucheon City built Bus Information System based on Beacon type, and operates it for no.22 line. This research analyzes an effect of BIS operations, and mainly it analyzes far reliability evaluation of bus arrival time information and passenger satisfaction about BIS. As results of reliability evaluation of arrival time information service, it is proven to be practically inappropriate to use as arrival time data because it is not only travel time between each bus stop but also previous travel time history data. In order to improve this matter, neural network model was evaluated as the most outstanding one as result of experiment in applying current arrival time Prediction model. This research cannot help limiting for evaluation of operation effect in Bucheon City because there is no Bus Information System based on GPS type in Korea. For the future ITS model city, in the case of building ITS model city based on GPS type, it is possible to compare two systems relatively. In addition to that, fur the consideration of reliability of bus arrival time information, it is required to develop Predictable model and research factors that affect to bus operation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.07a
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• pp.473-474
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• 2021

일반적으로 대학교에서 제공하는 통학버스 애플리케이션은 버스의 위치나 도착시각 같은 정보를 제공해주기 위해서 GPS 수신기와 같은 추가 장비를 설치해야 하는 비용 문제로 인해 버스 시간표, 노선도 등 단편적인 정보만을 제공해주고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이에 대한 해결방안으로 실시간 도로 교통 정보가 반영된 네이버 길 찾기 API를 사용하여 버스 도착시각을 학생들에게 제공해주는 통학버스 애플리케이션을 설계한다. 현재 단편적인 정보만을 제공해주는 대학교 통학버스 애플리케이션에 도입된다면 대학교 학생들의 통학버스 이용의 질을 향상할 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.338-339
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• 2021

본 논문에서는 제주시에서 오픈데이터로 공개한 버스탑승 기록을 기반으로 이용도가 높은 버스노선에 대해 특정정류장에서의 도착시간 예측모델을 구축한다. 버스들의 평균주행 속도, 운행시간대, 교통량 등을 입력으로 한 모델을 Sklearn을 이용하여 생성하고 MAE와 손실율 등의 성능을 분석한다.