• Title/Summary/Keyword: 반복적 예측기법

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Study on optimal design method for estimation of the mechanical properties of abandoned mine ground (폐광산 지반의 역학적 특성 추정을 위한 최적설계 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Min;Moon, HyunKoo;Jung, HyukSang;Kim, YoungSu;Park, SungHyun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • The domestic abandoned mines are generating subsidence and it is difficult to predict this subsidence and evaluate the risk. The study of the subsidence risk evaluation using the existing numerical analysis only applies the integrative property to the geological structure and ground condition, and analyzes the goaf peripheral plastic domain. Also, there is a realistic limit that only restricted materials can be apprehended in securing the input information, which leads to the low reliability of the numerical analysis result. In this study, 2-dimensional modeling was performed by applying the field geological structure and ground information targeting abandoned mine where the subsidence occurred. Also, the analysis model was revised by repeating the numerical analysis for the difference between the real subsidence ground information and the analysis result to be minimized by modifying the ground property. This revision was automated by applying the optimization technique and the gradational optimal design method dividing multiple ground properties was developed.

Predicting Financial Success of a Movie Using Bayesian Choice Model (베이지안 선택 모형을 이용한 영화흥행 예측)

  • Lee Gyeong-Jae;Jang U-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1851-1856
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    • 2006
  • 영화는 대표적인 경험재로 가치판단이 주관적이고 제품 수명주기가 매우 짧아 예측의 불확실성이 높기 때문에 이를 정량적인 방법으로 모형화하기는 쉽지 않다. 이러한 한계점에도 불구하고 한 영화의 상업적 성공을 예측하는 것은 영화 제작자나 배급사, 극장 등 모든 주체에게 수익과 직결되는 중요한 문제이기 때문에 지금까지 다양한 통계 모형이 제시되었다. 그러나 이들 모형의 대부분은 영화흥행에는 영향을 미치나 측정할 수 없는 효과를 반영하지 못한다거나, 추정 모수의 효과가 모든 영화에 대해서 같다는 동일성 가정으로 인해 영화간 이질성을 고려하지 못하고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 추정 모수의 사전분포를 모호사전분포로 정의함으로써 변수들의 불확실성을 반영할 수 있고, 영화간 이질성을 고려할 수 있는 베이지안 선택 모형을 제안하였다. 모수의 사후분포는 마코프체인 몬테카를로 기법인 깁스 샘플러를 이용하여 추정하였다. 또한, 감독, 배우, 장르 등의 영화 별 속성 변수뿐만 아니라, 입소문에 의한 영화관람 결정 등의 구전효과와 경쟁영화의 개봉으로 인한 효과를 반영할 수 있는 변수를 추가하여 모형의 정확성을 높였다. 2005년과 2006년 상반기에 상영된 영화를 바탕으로 모형을 구축하고 인공신경망 모형과 비교한 결과, 전체적인 예측 정확도에서는 인공신경망 모형과 비슷한 결과를 보이나 상업적으로 성공한 영화를 예측하는 데에는 베이지안 선택모형이 보다 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 개봉 주의 경쟁심화 정도 및 개봉 첫 주의 스크린 수 등이 영화 흥행에 가장 중요한 변수로 나타났으며, 영화 개봉 전 그 영화에 대한 기대치가 높을수록 흥행 성적 또한 좋음을 알 수 있었다. 배우의 힘 및 계절성, 영화 평점 등은 이질성을 고려하지 않은 전체수준에서는 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났으나, 그룹 간 이질성을 반영한 모형에서는 어느 정도 흥행한 영화를 만들기 위해서는 고려되어야 할 요소로 나타났다.렇지 않을 경우 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 도출할 때까지 추가적인 분석과정을 반복한다. 제안한 방법을 통하여 조직은 기술적 생산 가능성 외에도 다양한 조직 운영 관점에서 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 선정할 수 있으며, 이에 따른 목표를 수립할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 또한 더 나아가 global efficiency 관점에서 효율적 조직이 되기 위하여 단계적인 벤치마킹 대상 선정과 이에 따른 목표를 수립하는데도 유용하리라 판단된다.$1.20{\pm}0.37L$, 72시간에 $1.33{\pm}0.33L$로 유의한 차이를 보였으므로(F=6.153, P=0.004), 술 후 폐환기능 회복에 효과가 있다. 4) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 노력성 폐활량은 수술 후 72시간에서 실험군이 $1.90{\pm}0.61L$, 대조군이 $1.51{\pm}0.38L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.620, P=0.013). 5) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 일초 노력성 호기량은 수술 후 24시간에서 $1.33{\pm}0.56L,\;1.00{\ge}0.28L$로 유의한 차이를 보였고(t=2.530, P=0.017), 술 후 72시간에서 $1.72{\pm}0.65L,\;1.33{\pm}0.3L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.540, P=0.016). 6) 대상자의 술 후 폐환기능에 영향을 미치는 요인은 성별로 나타났다. 이에 따른 폐환기능의 차이를 보면, 실험군의 술 후 노력성 폐활량이 48시간에 남자($1.78{\pm}0.61L$)가 여자($1.27{\pm}0.45L$)보다 더 높게 나타났으며 (t=2.170, P=0.042), 72시간에도 역시 남자($2.16{\pm}0.56L$)가 여자($1.50{\pm}0.47L$)보다 더

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Analysis of Tunnel Behavior Using Progressive Rockmass Failure Technique (암반의 진행성 파괴 기법을 이용한 터널거동 분석)

  • 이성민;이윤규;신성렬
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.288-295
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    • 1999
  • Concentrated stresses due to the underground tunnel excavation easily cause many problems such as yielding, popping, and failure at the immediate roof, wall and floor of tunnel. Therefore, it is very important to predict the possibility of these problems when a tunnel is excavated underground. There are two typical methods to predict these problems. The one is to predict problems from the analysis of field monitoring data and the other is to predict them from computer simulations using good site investment data. Using the second method, this study attempted to describe the time-dependent or progressive manner of immediate roof and wall due to the underground tunnel excavation. An iterative technique was used to represent progressive failure of rockmass with the Hoek and Brown theory. By developing and simulating three different shapes of twin tunnels, this research estimated the proper size of critical pillar width between tunnels, distributed stresses on the tunnel walls, and convergences of tunnel crowns. Moreover, results out of progressive failure technique based on the Hoek and Brown theory were compared with the results out of Mohr-Coulomb theory.

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Degradation Assessment of Aluminum Alloy 6061-T6 Using Ultrasonic Attenuation Measurements (초음파 감쇠 측정을 이용한 Al6061-T6 열화 평가)

  • Kim, Hun-Hee;Kang, To;Seo, Mu-Kyung;Song, Sung-Jin;Kim, Hak-Joon;Kim, Kyung-Cho;Kim, Young-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2013
  • Ultrasonic methods are widely used to degradation assessment. Remaining-life cycle of metal can be estimated by ultrasonic parameters because ultrasonic velocity and attenuation are affected by change of material properties with accumulated fatigue in the metal. Therefore, in this study, we will estimate overall change of material properties by 2D C-scan image. Fatigued aluminum alloy 6061-T6 samples from 0 to 85% were prepared for evaluating fatigue life cycle. Also, degraded image of materials using attenuation is proposed to estimate degree of material degradation for determining degraded area of fatigued samples. Finally, we will predicts process pf degradation with measured attenuation of fatigued aluminum alloy 6061-T6 samples.

The defect detection circuit of an electronic circuit through impedance change detection that induces a change in S-parameter (S-parameter의 변화를 유도하는 임피던스 변화 감지를 통한 전자회로의 결함검출회로)

  • Seo, Donghwan;Kang, Tae-yeob;Yoo, Jinho;Min, Joonki;Park, Changkun
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.689-696
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, in order to apply Prognostics and Health Management(PHM) to an electronic system or circuit, a circuit capable of detecting and predicting defect characteristics inside the system or circuit is implemented, and the results are described. In the previous study, we demonstrated that the frequency of the amplitude of S-parameter changed as the circuit defect progressed. These characteristics were measured by network analyser. but in this study, even if the same defect detection method is used, a circuit is proposed to check the progress of the defect, the remaining time, and the occurrence of the defect without large measurement devices. The circuit is designed to detect the change in impedance that generates changes of S-parameter, and it is verified through simulation using the measurement results of Bond-wires.

Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.

A Study on a Multiresolution Filtering Algorithm based on a Physical Model of SPECT Lesion Detectability (SPECT 이상조직 검출능 모델에 근거한 다해상도 필터링 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hui;Kim, Gwang-Ik
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.551-562
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    • 1998
  • Amultiresolution filtering algorithm based on the physical SPECT lesion detachability provides and optimal solution for SPECT reconstruction problem. Related to the previous study, we estimated the SPECT lesion detection capability by m minimum detectable lesion sizes (MDLSs), and generated m reconstruction filters which are designed to maximize the smoothing effect at a fixed MDLS-dependent resolution level $\frac{MDLS}{4\sqrt{2In2}}$. The proposed multiresolution filtering algorithm used a coarse-to-fine approach for the m-level resolution filter images obtained from these m filters for a given projection image. First, the local homogeneity is determined for every pixel of the filter images, by comparing the local variance value computed in a window centered at the pixel and the mode determined from the distribution of the local variances. Based on the local homogeneity, the pixels declared as homogeneous are chosen from the filter image of the lowest resolution, and for the other pixels the same process is repeated for the higher resolution filter images. For the non-homogeneous pixels after this pixels after this repetition process ends, the pixel values of the highest resolution filter image are substituted. From the results of the simulated experiments, the proposed multiresolution filtering algorithm showed a strong smoothing effect in the homogeneous regions and a significant resolution improvement near the edge regions of the projection images, and so produced good adaptability effects in the reconstructed images.

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Seismic Performance Assessment of Hollow Circular Reinforced Concrete Bridge Columns with Confinement Steel (중공원형 철근콘크리트 교각의 횡방향철근에 따른 내진성능평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Hoon;Kang, Hyeong-Taek
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seismic behavior of hollow circular reinforced concrete bridge columns with confinement steel, and to develop improved seismic design criteria. Three hollow circular columns were tested under a constant axial load and a quasi-static, cyclically reversed horizontal load. The accuracy and objectivity of the assessment process can be enhanced by using a sophisticated nonlinear finite element analysis program. The numerical method used gives a realistic prediction of the seismic performance throughout the loading cycles for the several test specimens investigated. Based on the experimental and analytical results, design recommendations are presented to improve current practice in the design and construction of hollow circular reinforced concrete bridge columns.

Seismic Performance Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Columns with Interlocking Circular Hoops (결합원형띠철근을 갖는 철근콘크리트 교각의 내진성능평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Hoon;Park, Kwang-Soon;Kang, Hyeong-Taek
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridge columns with interlocking circular hoops. Three interlocking columns were tested under a constant axial load and a quasistatic, cyclically reversed horizontal load. A computer program, RCAHEST (Reinforced Concrete Analysis in Higher Evaluation System Technology) was used for the analysis of reinforced concrete structures. The used numerical method gives a realistic prediction of performance throughout the loading cycles for several test specimens investigated. Based on the experimental and analytical results, design recommendations are presented to improve the existing practice in the design and construction of reinforced concrete bridge columns with interlocking circular hoops.

A Cost-effective Control Flow Checking using Loop Detection and Prediction (루프 검출 및 예측 방법을 적용한 비용 효율적인 실시간 분기 흐름 검사 기법)

  • Kim Gunbae;Ahn Jin-Ho;Kang Sungho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.42 no.12
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2005
  • Recently, concurrent error detection for the processor becomes important. But it imposes too much overhead to adopt concurrent error detection capability on the system. In this paper, a new approach to resolve the problems of concurrent error detection is proposed. A loop detection scheme is introduced to reduce the repetitive loop iteration and memory access. To reduce the memory overheat an offset to calculate the target address of branching node is proposed. Performance evaluation shows that the new architecture has lower memory overhead and frequency of memory access than previous works. In addition, the new architecture provides the same error coverage and requires nearly constant memory size regardless of the size of the application program. Consequently, the proposed architecture can be used as an cost effective method to detect control flow errors in the commercial on the shelf products.