• Title/Summary/Keyword: 물동량

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A Study on the Factors Influencing Cargo Volume of Small & Medium Container Port in Korea (국내 중소형 컨테이너항만 물동량에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chang-Ki;Nam, Ki-Chan;Kang, Dal-Won
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.371-376
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    • 2015
  • Port is responsible for the important role that creates a lot of value-added export and import-intensive countries, critical infrastructure, and in the national economy. Despite being an important facility for the past, awareness of the port is insufficient; In 2000s, increasing the world container traffic volumes, China's economic development, and trade volume in the Northeast Asia to generate a lot of are changing the perception of the role and importance of the port. According to the review of the master plan and the port recognition in Korean Port, this study examines determining factors which affects the port cargo volume. The target of the study is domestic small and medium-sized container port that receives a large hinterland cargo volume, excluding the impact of the Global Hub Port like Busan and Gwangyang port. Factors that affect the multiple regression analysis result of the port cargo volume are berthing capacity, degree of activation, connection number of countries, GRDP and number of manufacturers.

Forecasting the Container Volumes of Busan Port using LSTM (LSTM을 활용한 부산항 컨테이너 물동량 예측)

  • Kim, Doo-hwan;Lee, Kangbae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2020
  • The maritime and port logistics industry is closely related to global trade and economic activity, especially for Korea, which is highly dependent on trade. As the largest port in Korea, Busan Port processes 75% of the country's container cargo; the port is therefore extremely important in terms of the country's national competitiveness. Port container cargo volume forecasts influence port development and operation strategies, and therefore require a high level of accuracy. However, due to unexpected and sudden changes in the port and maritime transportation industry, it is difficult to increase the accuracy of container volume forecasting using existing time series models. Among deep learning models, this study uses the LSTM model to enhance the accuracy of container cargo volume forecasting for Busan Port. To evaluate the model's performance, the forecasting accuracies of the SARIMA and LSTM models are compared. The findings reveal that the forecasting accuracy of the LSTM model is higher than that of the SARIMA model, confirming that the forecasted figures fully reflect the actual measurement figures.

A Study on the Structural Changes in Global Container Ports' Throughput(2003~'19) based on Top 100 Container Ports in the World (글로벌 컨테이너 항만 물동량의 구조적 변화에 관한 연구(2003~'19) - 세계 100대 컨테이너 항만을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Choong-bae;Lee, Young Shin;Liu, Yanfeng
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.55-74
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    • 2021
  • The role of container ports contributes greatly to international trade and national or regional economic development by supporting maritime transportation and occupies a central position in the supply chain connecting sea and land. The performance(traffic volume) of a port generally depends on geographic, economic, and operational factors etc. For the past several decades, container port volumes have grown with fluctuation. This study amis to analyze how global ports have undergone changes in terms of cargo volume by region, size and period. For the analysis, only the volumes of global top 100 ports were used. Shift-share analysis and BCG matrix analysis were employed as methodologies. According to the result of the analysis, the relative volatility of port traffic over the past 16 years as a whole was found to be limited. On the other hand, ports in China and Southeast and Southwest Asia, which are economically growing for the last decades, showed growing trends, while ports in Northeast Asia and Europe appeared to be in a stagnant or declining phase. It also shows that most of the global ports maintain limited changes in cargo volume because they are already positioned as central ports in the region. In addition, it can be seen that the global port volume has a close relationship with the change in the economic capability of the relevant region or country.

우리나라 주요항만의 인센티브 정책에 관한 연구

  • Yu, Ju-Yeong;Jeong, Tae-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.122-123
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    • 2009
  • 최근 세계경기 침체 여파로 전국 항만의 물동량이 감소하는 가운데 인천항의 물동량 또한 증가율이 2007년 20.8%에서 2008년 2.0%로 급격하게 둔화되었으며 2009년도 1/4분기(1-3월)전체 물동량은 309,930백 톤으로 전년동기(379,540백 톤)보다 18.3% 감소하였다. 이에 항만당국은 경기침체와 같은 대외환경의 변화와 주변항만의 적극적인 물량 유치를 위하여 인센티브 정책을 개편하는 등의 전략을 마련하고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 국내 주요항만의 인센티브 정책을 분석하고 그 시사점을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다.

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시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 부산항 환적물동량 예측모델에 관한 연구

  • Song, Sang-Geun;Ryu, Dong-Geun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2014.06a
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    • pp.175-177
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 부산항에서 차지하는 환적물동량의 위상을 고려하여 환적화물에 대한 정확한 예측을 위한 모델을 수립하는데 그 목적이 있다. 환적물량을 결정짓는 요소로는 부산항의 경쟁력 뿐 아니라 중국 등의 수출입 물동량 증가량과 중국항만의 경쟁력도 중요요소이며, 이들 요소들이 상호간에 영향을 주고 받음에 따라 그러한 순환적 인과관계 분석에 적합한 시스템 다이내믹스(SD) 기법을 활용하여 환적화물에 대한 예측을 시도해 보고자 한다.

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Application of Artificial Neural network in container traffic forecasting (컨테이너물동량 예측에 있어 인공신경망모형의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Chang-Hoon;Jeong, Su-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2010.10a
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    • pp.108-109
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 비선형예측기법으로서 그 우수성을 인정받고 있는 인공신경망모형을 사용하여 컨테이너 물동량 예측을 수행하였다. 그러나 인공신경망모형을 사용해 시계열의 예측결과를 ARIMA모형과 같이 널리 알려진 다른 전통적인 수요예측기법들과 비교 평가한 과거 연구들을 보게 되면 각기 주장하는 바와 그 결론이 상반됨을 알 수 있다. 그래서 인공신경망의 예측성과를 높이기 위한 기존의 선행연구들의 다양한 시도들을 바탕으로 국내 항만의 컨테이너물동량을 예측하고, 그를 통해 여러 모형간의 비교 검증작업을 수행하였다.

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A Case Study on the Improvement of Container Transportation Systems in Busan Port (부산항 컨테이너 유통체제 개선 방안에 관한 사례 연구)

  • 허윤수;문성혁;남기찬;류동근
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2001
  • 부산항은 우라나라의 전체 수출입 및 환적 컨테이너 물동량의 약 90%를 처리하고 있기 때문에 지금까지 꾸준한 물동량 증가 추세를 보이고 있다. 컨테이너 물동량의 증가에 따라 정부에서는 항만시설을 지속적으로 확충하여 컨테이너 처리능력을 확대하고 있으나, 컨테이너 물동량의 증가율이 컨테이너 처리시설 확보율을 초과하여 부산항 컨테이너 전용부두의 컨테이너 수용능력은 부족한 실정이다. 이와 같은 컨테이너 장치장 부족문제를 해결하기 위해서 그 동안 부산항의 ODCY에서 처리하였으나, 최근 부두밖 장치장의 단계적 이전 및 폐쇄방침이 결정됨에 따라 부산항의 장치장 부족문제가 대두되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 장치장 부족문제를 해결하고 부산항 컨테이너 유통체제를 개선시킬 수 있는 방안을 제시하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 이를 위하여 첫째, 부산항의 컨테이너화물 유통 현황 및 문제점을 분석하고 둘째, 부산항 컨테이너화물 유통체제의 개선대안을 설정하여 분석결과를 제시한다.

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The Effects of the Changes of Economic Variables on the Import Container Volume of Gwangyang Port (경제변수의 변동이 광양항 수입컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 효과)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.269-282
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    • 2009
  • This study investigates the difference of behavioral patterns between the import container volume of all ports and that of Gwangyang port in Korea. All series span the period January 1999 to December 2008. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of variance decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how much movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly these fluctuations in one variable can be transmitted to another. The variance decompositions for the import container volume show that the proportions of the forecast error variance of import container volumes explained by themselves are 30 and 26 per cent after 12 months, respectively. As a result, innovations in exchange rate and business activity explain 70 and 74 per cent of the variance in the import container volume. All in all, innovation accounting indicates that import container volumes are not exogenous with respect to exchange rate and business activity. The impulse responses indicate that container volumes decrease sharply to the shocks in exchange rate and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level, while container volumes respond positively to the shocks in the business activity and disappear very slowly, showing that the shocks last very long. Furthermore Gwangyang port is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rate and the industrial production than all ports.

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A Trend Analysis on Export Container Volume Between Korea and East Asian Ports (우리나라와 동아시아 항만간의 수출 컨테이너 물동량 추이 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Bae;Noh, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 2018
  • The East Asian region, an important part of Korea's imports and exports, is expected to grow further driven by the geographical, political, economic, social, and cultural complementarity. With the recent increase in imports and exports, the port trade volume between Korea and East Asian countries is also growing. However, due to various factors, such as economic size, growth rate, port infrastructure level, and geographical location of these countries, the volume of traffic with these ports is fluctuating. Despite much research on the volatility of port trade volume and changes in port network, this study tries to supplement the gap in a more detailed study of ports in Korea and East Asia since these kinds of studies are limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trend of distribution routes of export container cargo among ports in Korea and to present policy and practical implications of Korean trading companies, shipping companies, logistics companies, and port authorities. This study analyzes the variability of the trade volume between Korea's major ports and Daedong. Results show that Shanghai, Ningbo, Ho Chi Minh, and Haiphong were the most important factors in terms of size and volume increase. In terms of ports, the Busan port is the port responsible for trades with Yantai, Weihai, Hakata, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh, and Haiphong; Incheon port deals with Lianyungang, Tianjin, Osaka, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh, Haiphong; Gwangyang port trades with Tianjinxingang, Weihai, Yokohama, Mihn and Tanjong, and Ulsan port is strategically important for the Yantai, Lianyungang, Nagoya, Kobe, Ho Chi Minh and Portkelang ports. Therefore, the Korean government, port authorities, and shipping and logistics companies need to strengthen logistic network cooperation with these ports and actively promote investments in them.

An Analysis on the Impact of Korea-Chile FTA on Busan Port - Focusing on the Inbound Container from Chile - (한-칠레 자유무역협정이 부산항 물동량에 미치는 영향분석 - 대 칠레 수입 컨테이너화물 중심 -)

  • Nam, Kichan;Nam, Hyung-Sik;Kang, Dal-Won
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.681-687
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    • 2013
  • Free Trade Agreement(FTA) aims at abolishing tariffs on trade among nations or regions resulting in having a significant impact on maritime transportation and port. Korea made the first FTA with Chile in 2004 and the trade volume between two countries has seen significant increase. The literature on such impact, however, seems to be very limited. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to analyze the impact of Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement on the imported container throughput from Chile at the Busan Port. For this both cross-sectional and time series data are collected that comprise container throughput, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), import tariff, and maritime freight rate, from 2000 to 2011, and the gravity model is applied. The main result of the study shows that the dependent variables, GDP and import tariff are statistically significant, but the maritime freight rate is not consistent with regarding to statistical significance and parameter sign.