• The Magazine of the Society of Air-Conditioning and Refrigerating Engineers of Korea
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.14-21
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• 2001

축구 전용구장이 가지는 여러 지붕구조의 특성에 따라 경기장 잔디면의 조도 및 자연광량을 몬테카를로 방법과 광선추적기법을 적용하여 개발된 컴퓨터 프로그램에 의해 예측하고, 설계안에 의해 부족한 잔디면의 자연광량을 보충할 수 있는 인공조명시설의 제작방법을 레디언스(Radiance) 프로그램을 이용한 시뮬레이션 결과로부터 도출하여 제시하였다.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.46-53
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• 2005

This paper presents a new approach for determining an accurate incentive levels of Direct Load Control (DLC) program using probabilistic techniques. The economic analysis of DLC resources needs to identify the hourly-by-hourly expected energy-not-served resulting from the random outage characteristics of generators as well as to reflect the availability and duration of DLC resources, which results the computational explosion. Therefore, the conventional methods are based on the scenario approaches to reduce the computation time as well as to avoid the complexity of economic studies. In this paper, we have developed a new technique based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the required expected load control amount in each hour and to decide the incentive level satisfying the economic constraints. In addition, we have applied the variance reduction technique to enhance the efficiency of the simulation. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the suggested method, the numerical studies have been performed for the modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.883-890
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• 2013

Aircraft combat survivability analysis is essential process for the development of combat aircraft. M&S methodology is the typical procedure for the aircraft combat survivability analysis, and the last step is the expensive Live Fire Test if it is necessary. This study introduced cost and time effective survivability analysis methodology based on the random variable weighted score algorithm in conceptual design phase. For this study, essential element and event analysis (E3A) is used to define the random variables and Monte-Carlo simulation is implemented to estimate weighted score and the final value of survivability.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.715-721
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• 2017

기술거래 시장의 활성화에 대한 연구개발서비스 분야 종사자들의 관심이 높아지고 있으며, 특히 공공 및 민간 분야의 휴면 기술(특허)에 대한 이전 거래를 통해 불필요한 특허유지 비용을 줄이고 부가적인 기술료 창출 효과를 거둘 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 현재까지 기술이전(거래), 현물출자, 기술금융(융자, 담보대출) 등 다양한 목적으로 실무에서 활용되어 온 기술가치평가 모형의 한계점을 고민해 보고, 이에 대한 개선방안으로서 몬테카를로 최소자승법 기반의 확률론적 가치평가 모형을 제시한다. 기존의 가치평가 모형은 평가산출을 위한 입력변수의 확정적 값들에 기반하여 가치액이 산출되었으나, 대표적 기법인 현금흐름 할인법이나 로열티공제법의 경우 미래의 수익예상기간, 예상매출액 등에서는 불확실성(uncertainty)가 내재되어 있다. 따라서 특정 분포(distribution)에 대한 확률론적 가능성을 가정하고 이에 대한 수학적 최적화 논리로부터 몬테카를로 최소자승 관게에 의한 변수결정 및 가치평가액 산정을 할 수 있는 평가모듈을 개발한다. 향후 연구에서는 기 평가된 사례결과를 딥러닝(deep learning) 방식으로 학습하여, 발생가능성 높은 각 변수값의 범위들을 산출하고 이로부터 기술가치 범위를 추론하는 시스템을 개발하는 것도 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2009

With the increase in construction of long railway tunnel, social interest in the railway tunnel fire risk has also increased. However, quantitative fire risk research on this topic is still lacking, especially in terms of consideration of uncertainty of each variables used in risk analysis. Hence, in this study, to improve the overall performance of fire risk analysis technique for railway tunnel, Monte-Carlo simulation method is added to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis based on event tree approach and its validity is investigated by applying it to the real railway tunnel project.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.89-107
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• 2019

Rock joints have an extremely important role in analyzing the mechanical stability and hydraulic characteristics of rock mass structures. Most rock joint parameters are generally indicated as a distribution by statistical techniques. In this research, calculation technique of Joint Center Volume (JCV) is analyzed, which is required for estimating the size distribution having the largest uncertainty among the joint parameters, then a new technique is proposed which is applicable regardless of the shape of survey window. The existing theoretical JCV calculation technique can be applied only to the plane window, and the complete enumeration techniques show the limitations in joint trace type and analysis time. This research aims to overcome the limitations in survey window shape and joint trace type through calculating JCV by using Monte Carlo simulation. The applicability of proposed technique is validated through the estimation results at non-planar survey windows such as curved surface and tunnel surface.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.7
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• pp.883-889
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• 2013

The distribution of a response usually depends on the distribution of a variable. When the distribution of a variable has two different modes, the response also follows a distribution with two different modes. In most reliability analysis methods, the number of modes is irrelevant, but not the type of distribution. However, in actual problems, because information is often provided with two or more modes, it is important to estimate the distributions with two or more modes. Recently, some reliability analysis methods have been suggested for bimodal distributions. In this paper, we review some methods such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and maximum entropy principle (MEP) and compare them with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) using mathematical examples with two different modes.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.247-257
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• 2011

In this study the infinite slope model, one of the physical landslide models has been suggested to evaluate the susceptibility of the landslide. However, applying the infinite slope model in regional study area can be difficult or impossible because of the difficulties in obtaining and processing of large spatial data sets. With limited site investigation data, uncertainties were inevitably involved with. Therefore, the probabilistic analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation and the GIS based infinite slope stability model have been used to evaluate the probability of failure. The proposed approach has been applied to practical example. The study area in Boeun area been selected since the area has been experienced tremendous amount of landslide occurrence. The geometric characteristics of the slope and the mechanical properties of soils like to friction angle and cohesion were obtained. In addition, coefficient of variation (COV) values in the uncertain parameters were varied from 10% to 30% in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty. The analysis results showed that the probabilistic analysis method can reduce the effect of uncertainty involved in input parameters.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.350-353
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• 2009

In the fatigue analysis and the components design, uncertainties are caused by the variances of geometry data and applied loads, and the scatter of material properties. In this paper, fatigue crack growth life of turbine is evaluated by fracture mechanics and the reliability analysis is accessed by the fist order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.165-168
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• 2003

최근 사면의 안정해석분야에서 자주 사용되고 있는 확률론적 해석 방법은 현장에서 획득 되는 자료들의 분산이 심하고 충분한 양의 자료가 획득되지 못할 경우 자료 내에 포함되는 불확실성과 가변성을 효과적으로 다룰 수 있는 방법 중의 하나로 인식되어 왔다. 그러나 대개 확률론적 해석 방법에서 이용되는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션기법(Monte Carlo simulation method)은 파괴확률을 산정하기 위하여 수 많은 반복적인 계산과정이 요구되며 따라서 많은 시간과 노력이 필요하다는 단점을 가지고 있다. (중략)