• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모의값

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Evaluation of Site-specific Potential for Rice Production in Korea under the Changing Climate (지구온난화에 따른 우리나라 벼농사지대의 생산성 재평가)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Cho, Kyung-Sook;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.229-241
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    • 2006
  • Global air temperature has risen by $0.6^{\circ}C$ over the last one hundred years due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Moreover, this global warming trend is projected to continue in the future. This study was carried out to evaluate spatial variations in rice production areas by simulating rice-growth and development with projected high resolution climate data in Korea far 2011-2100, which was geospatially interpolated from the 25 km gridded data based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Satellite remote sensing data were used to pinpoint the rice-growing areas, and corresponding climate data were aggregated to represent the official 'crop reporting county'. For the simulation experiment, we used a CERES-Rice model modified by introducing two equations to calculate the leaf appearance rate based on the effective temperature and existing leaf number and the final number of leaves based on day-length in the photoperiod sensitive phase of rice. We tested the performance of this model using data-sets obtained from transplanting dates and nitrogen fertilization rates experiments over three years (2002 to 2004). The simulation results showed a good performance of this model in heading date prediction [$R^2$=0.9586 for early (Odaebyeo), $R^2$=0.9681 for medium (Hwasungbyeo), and $R^2$=0.9477 for late (Dongjinbyeo) maturity cultivars]. A modified version of CERES-Rice was used to simulate the growth and development of three Japonica varieties, representing early, medium, and late maturity classes, to project crop status for climatological normal years between 2011 and 2100. In order to compare the temporal changes, three sets of data representing 3 climatological years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were successively used to run the model. Simulated growth and yield data of the three Japonica cultivars under the observed climate for 1971-2000 was set as a reference. Compared with the current normal, heading date was accelerated by 7 days for 2011-2040 and 20 days for 2071-2100. Physiological maturity was accelerated by 15 days for 2011-2040 and 30 days for 2071-2100. Rice yield was in general reduced by 6-25%, 3-26%, and 3-25% per 10a in early, medium, and late maturity classes, respectively. However, mid to late maturing varieties showed an increased yield in northern Gyeonggi Province and in most of Kwangwon Province in 2071-2100.

Studies on the Storage Stability of Traditional Andong sikhe using Lactobacillus delbreuckii (Lactobacillus delbreuckii를 이용한 전통안동식혜의 저장 안정성)

  • Choi, Cheong;Son, Gyu-Mok;Woo, He-Sob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 1992
  • This study was attempted aimed to prepare of Andong sikhe by pure culture inoculation and to improve storage stability by the addition of stabilizers to the product. Lactobacillus delbreuckii was selected for pure culture inoculation in the fermentation. The effect of stabilizers on the sedimentation, sensory evaluation and viscosity of Sikhe were investigated during the fermentation of traditional Andong Sikhe stored at $4^{\circ}C$ Morphological characteristics of Sikhe were determined by scanning electromicrograpy. Among the stabilizers added to the traditional Andong sikhe Na-alginate was found to be best stabilizers. When the product was evaluated by the sensory panel, the addition of stabilizers up to 0.1% level actually increased the acceptability of the product, while the concentration of more than 0.2% stabilizers affected the acceptability of the negatively. Sikhe added Na-carboxymethyl cellulose and Na-alginate showed highest viscosity on the 2nd day of fermentation, while homogenized Andong sikhe with Carrageenan showed the highest peak in viscosity on the first day of fermentation. Lactic acid bacterial count reached to $3.2{\times}10^8/ml$ after 20 days of storage. The surface and cross section of rice was observed by scanning electron microscope. As the fermentation proceeded holes on the surface increased, and nearly empty cell wall remained at the later stage of fermentation. Use of pure cultured inoculum of L. delbreuckii supported the rapid build up of the lactic acid bacteria and consequently the whole process of the fermentation was shortened. The acceptability and product quality were improved by use of L. delbreuckii inoculum.

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Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

Contralateral Breast Doses Depending on Treatment Set-up Positions for Left-sided Breast Tangential Irradiation (좌측 유방암 환자의 방사선 치료 시 환자자세에 따른 반대편 유방의 산란선량 측정)

  • Joo, Chan Seong;Park, Su Yeon;Kim, JongSik;Choi, Byeong Gi;Chung, Yoonsun;Park, Won
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : To evaluate Contralateral Breast Doses with Supine and Prone Positions for tangential Irradiation techniques for left-sided breast Cancer Materials and Methods : We performed measurements for contralateral doses using Human Phantom at each other three plans (conventional technique, Field-in-Field, IMRT, with prescription of 50 Gy/25fx). For the measurement of contralateral doses we used Glass dosimeters on the 4 points of Human Phantom surface (0 mm, 10 mm, 30 mm, 50 mm). For the position check at every measurements, we had taken portal images using EPID and denoted the incident points on the human phantom for checking the constancy of incident points. Results : The contralateral doses in supine position showed a little higher doses than those in prone position. In the planning study, contralateral doses in the prone position increased mean doses of 1.2% to 1.8% at each positions while those in the supine positions showed mean dose decreases of 0.8% to 0.9%. The measurements using glass dosimeters resulted in dose increases (mean: 2.7%, maximum: 4% of the prescribed dose) in the prone position. In addition, the delivery techniques of Field-in-field and IMRT showed mean doses of 3% higher than conventional technique. Conclusion : We evaluated contralateral breast doses depending on different positions of supine and prone for tangential irradiations. For the phantom simulation of set-up variation effects on contralateral dose evaluation, although we used humanoid phantom for planning and measurements comparisons, it would be more or less worse set-up constancy in a real patient. Therefore, more careful selection of determination of patient set-up for the breast tangential irradiation, especially in the left-sided breast, should be considered for unwanted dose increases to left lung and heart. In conclusion, intensive patient monitoring and improved patient set-up verification efforts should be necessary for the application of prone position for tangential irradiation of left-sided breast cancer.

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Evaluation of a Water-based Bolus Device for Radiotherapy to the Extremities in Kaposi's Sarcoma Patients (사지에 발병한 카포시육종의 방사선치료를 위한 물볼루스 기구의 유용성 고찰)

  • Ahn, Seung-Kwon;Kim, Yong-Bae;Lee, Ik-Jae;Song, Tae-Soo;Son, Dong-Min;Jang, Yung-Jae;Cho, Jung-Hee;Kim, Joo-Ho;Kim, Dong-Wook;Cho, Jae-Ho;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.189-194
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: We designed a water-based bolus device for radiation therapy in Kaposi's sarcoma. This study evaluated the usefulness of this new device and compared it with the currently used rice-based bolus. Materials and Methods: We fashioned a polystyrene box and cut a hole in order to insert patient's extremities while the patient was in the supine position. We used a vacuum-vinyl based polymer to reduce water leakage. Next, we eliminated air using a vacuum pump and a vacuum valve to reduce the air gap between the water and extremities in the vacuum-vinyl box. We performed CT scans to evaluate the density difference of the fabricated water-based bolus device when the device in which the rice-based bolus was placed directly, the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice, and the water were all put in. We analyzed the density change with the air gap volume using a planning system. In addition, we measured the homogeneity and dose in the low-extremities phantom, attached to six TLD, and wrapped film exposed in parallel-opposite fields with the LINAC under the same conditions as the set-up of the CT-simulator. Results: The density value of the rice-based bolus with the rice put in directly was 14% lower than that of the water-based bolus. Moreover, the value of the other experiments in the rice-based bolus with the polymer-vinyl packed rice showed an 18% reduction in density. The analysis of the EDR2 film revealed that the water-based bolus shows a more homogeneous dose plan, which was superior by $4{\sim}4.4%$ to the rice-base bolus. The mean TLD readings of the rice-based bolus, with the rice put directly into the polystyrene box had a 3.4% higher density value. Moreover, the density value in the case of the rice-based bolus with polymer-vinyl packed rice had a 4.3% higher reading compared to the water-based bolus. Conclusion: Our custom-made water-based bolus device increases the accuracy of the set-up by confirming the treatment field. It also improves the accuracy of the therapy owing to the reduction of the air gap using a vacuum pump and a vacuum valve. This set-up represents a promising alternative device for delivering a homogenous dose to the target volume.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Development of Neural Network Based Cycle Length Design Model Minimizing Delay for Traffic Responsive Control (실시간 신호제어를 위한 신경망 적용 지체최소화 주기길이 설계모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jung-Youn;Kim, Jin-Tae;Chang, Myung-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2004
  • The cycle length design model of the Korean traffic responsive signal control systems is devised to vary a cycle length as a response to changes in traffic demand in real time by utilizing parameters specified by a system operator and such field information as degrees of saturation of through phases. Since no explicit guideline is provided to a system operator, the system tends to include ambiguity in terms of the system optimization. In addition, the cycle lengths produced by the existing model have yet been verified if they are comparable to the ones minimizing delay. This paper presents the studies conducted (1) to find shortcomings embedded in the existing model by comparing the cycle lengths produced by the model against the ones minimizing delay and (2) to propose a new direction to design a cycle length minimizing delay and excluding such operator oriented parameters. It was found from the study that the cycle lengths from the existing model fail to minimize delay and promote intersection operational conditions to be unsatisfied when traffic volume is low, due to the feature of the changed target operational volume-to-capacity ratio embedded in the model. The 64 different neural network based cycle length design models were developed based on simulation data surrogating field data. The CORSIM optimal cycle lengths minimizing delay were found through the COST software developed for the study. COST searches for the CORSIM optimal cycle length minimizing delay with a heuristic searching method, a hybrid genetic algorithm. Among 64 models, the best one producing cycle lengths close enough to the optimal was selected through statistical tests. It was found from the verification test that the best model designs a cycle length as similar pattern to the ones minimizing delay. The cycle lengths from the proposed model are comparable to the ones from TRANSYT-7F.

Difference in the Set-up Margin between 2D Conventional and 3D CT Based Planning in Patients with Early Breast Cancer (조기유방암환자의 이차원치료계획과 삼차원치료계획의 방사선조사범위의 차이)

  • Jo, Sun-Mi;Chun, Mi-Son;Kim, Mi-Hwa;Oh, Young-Taek;Kang, Seung-Hee;Noh, O-Kyu
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Simulation using computed tomography (CT) is now widely available for radiation treatment planning for breast cancer. It is an important tool to help define the tumor target and normal tissue based on anatomical features of an individual patient. In Korea, most patients have small sized breasts and the purpose of this study was to review the margin of treatment field between conventional two-dimensional (2D) planning and CT based three-dimensional (3D) planning in patients with small breasts. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five consecutive patients with early breast cancer undergoing breast conservation therapy were selected. All patients underwent 3D CT based planning with a conventional breast tangential field design. In 2D planning, the treatment field margins were determined by palpation of the breast parenchyma (In general, the superior: base of the clavicle, medial: midline, lateral: mid - axillary line, and inferior margin: 2 m below the inframammary fold). In 3D planning, the clinical target volume (CTV) ought to comprise all glandular breast tissue, and the PTV was obtained by adding a 3D margin of 1 cm around the CTV except in the skin direction. The difference in the treatment field margin and equivalent field size between 2D and 3D planning were evaluated. The association between radiation field margins and factors such as body mass index, menopause status, and bra size was determined. Lung volume and heart volume were examined on the basis of the prescribed breast radiation dose and 3D dose distribution. Results: The margins of the treatment field were smaller in the 3D planning except for two patients. The superior margin was especially variable (average, 2.5 cm; range, -2.5 to 4.5 cm; SD, 1.85). The margin of these targets did not vary equally across BMI class, menopause status, or bra size. The average irradiated lung volume was significantly lower for 3D planning. The average irradiated heart volume did not decrease significantly. Conclusion: The use of 3D CT based planning reduced the radiation field in early breast cancer patients with small breasts in relation to conventional planning. Though a coherent definition of the breast is needed, CT-based planning generated the better plan in terms of reducing the irradiation volume of normal tissue. Moreover it was possible that 3D CT based planning showed better CTV coverage including postoperative change.

Channel Changes and Effect of Flow Pulses on Hydraulic Geometry Downstream of the Hapcheon Dam (합천댐 하류 하천지형 변화 예측 및 흐름파가 수리기하 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Young-Ho;Julien, Pierre Y.
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.579-589
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    • 2009
  • Hwang River in South Korea, has experienced channel adjustments due to dam construction. Hapcheon main dam and re-regulation dam. The reach below the re-regulation dam (45 km long) changed in flow regime, channel width, bed material distribution, vegetation expansion, and island formation after dam construction. The re-regulation dam dramatically reduced annual peak flow from 654.7 $m^3$/s to 126.3 $m^3$/s and trapped the annual 591 thousand $m^3$ of sediment load formerly delivered from the upper watershed since the completion of the dam in 1989. An analysis of a time series of aerial photographs taken in 1982, 1993, and 2004 showed that non-vegetated active channel width narrowed an average of 152 m (47% of 1982) and non-vegetated active channel area decreased an average of 6.6 km2 (44% of 1982) between 1982 and 2004, with most narrowing and decreasing occurring after dam construction. The effects of daily pulses of water from peak hydropower generation and sudden sluice gate operations are investigated downstream of Hapcheon Dam in South Korea. The study reach is 45 km long from the Hapcheon re-regulation Dam to the confluence with the Nakdong River. An analysis of a time series of aerial photographs taken in 1982, 1993, and 2004 showed that the non-vegetated active channel width narrowed an average of 152 m (47% reduction since 1982). The non-vegetated active channel area also decreased an average of 6.6 $km^2$ (44% reduction since 1982) between 1982 and 2004, with most changes occurring after dam construction. The average median bed material size increased from 1.07 mm in 1983 to 5.72 mm in 2003, and the bed slope of the reach decreased from 0.000943 in 1983 to 0.000847 in 2003. The riverbed vertical degradation is approximately 2.6 m for a distance of 20 km below the re-regulation dam. It is expected from the result of the unsteady sediment transport numerical model (GSTAR-1D) steady simulations that the thalweg elevation will reach a stable condition around 2020. The model also confirms the theoretical prediction that sediment transport rates from daily pulses and flood peaks are 21 % and 15 % higher than their respective averages.

Analysis of the Inter- and Intra-treatment Isocenter Deviations in Pelvic Radiotherapy With Small Bowel Displacement System (Small Bowel Displacement System을 이용한 골반부 방사선조사에서 치료간 및 치료중 중심점 위치변동에 관한 분석)

  • Kim Moon Kyung;Kim Dae Yong;Ahn Yong Chan;Huh Seung Jae;Lim Do Hun;Shin Kyung Hwan;Lee Kyu Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.114-119
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : To evaluate the e지ent and frequency of the inter- and intra-treatment isocenter deviations of the whole pelvis radiation field in using small bowel displacement system (SBDS). Methods and Materials : Using electronic portal imaging device (EPID), 302 postero-anterior 232 lateral portal images were prospectively collected from 11 patients who received pelvic radiation therapy (7 with cervix cancer and 4 with rectal cancer). All patients were treated in prone position with SBDS under the lower abdomen. Five metallic fiducial markers were placed on the image detection unit for the recognition of the isocenter and magnification. After aligning the bony landmarks of the EPID images on those of the reference image, the deviations of the isocenter were measured in right-left (RL), cranio-caudal (CC), and PA directions. Results : The mean inter-treatment deviation of the isocenter in each RL, CC, and PA direction was 1.2 mm ($\pm$ 1.6 mm), 1.0 mm ($\pm$3.0 mm), and 0.9 mm ($\pm$4.4 mm), respectively. Inter-treatment isocenter deviations over 5 mm and 10 mm in RL, CC, and PA direction were 2, 12, 24$\%$, and 0, 0, 5$\%$, respectively. Maximal deviation was detected in PA direction, and was 11.5 mm. The mean intratreatment deviation of the isocenter in RL, CC, and PA direction was 0 mm ($\pm$0.9 mm), 0.1 mm ($\pm$ 1.9mm), and 0 mm ($\pm$1.6 mm), respectively. All intra-treatment isocenter deviations over 5 mm in each direction were 0, 1, 1$\pm$, respectively. Conclusions : As the greatest and the most frequent inter-treatment deviation of the isocenter was along the PA direction, it is recommended to put more generous safety margin toward the PA direction on the lateral fields if clinically acceptable in pelvic radiotherapy with SBDD.

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