• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델 접근 방법

Search Result 1,718, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.22 no.7 s.78
    • /
    • pp.155-159
    • /
    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Effects of the Mathematical Modeling Learning on the Word Problem Solving (수학적 모델링 학습이 문장제 해결에 미치는 효과)

  • Shin, Hyun-Yong;Jeong, In-Su
    • Education of Primary School Mathematics
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.107-134
    • /
    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two teaching methods of word problems, one based on mathematical modeling learning(ML) and the other on traditional learning(TL). Additionally, the influence of mathematical modeling learning in word problem solving behavior, application ability of real world experiences in word problem solving and the beliefs of word problem solving will be examined. The results of this study were as follows: First, as to word problem solving behavior, there was a significant difference between the two groups. This mean that the ML was effective for word problem solving behavior. Second, all of the students in the ML group and the TL group had a strong tendency to exclude real world knowledge and sense-making when solving word problems during the pre-test. but A significant difference appeared between the two groups during post-test. classroom culture improvement efforts. Third, mathematical modeling learning(ML) was effective for improvement of traditional beliefs about word problems. Fourth, mathematical modeling learning(ML) exerted more influence on mathematically strong and average students and a positive effect to mathematically weak students. High and average-level students tended to benefit from mathematical modeling learning(ML) more than their low-level peers. This difference was caused by less involvement from low-level students in group assignments and whole-class discussions. While using the mathematical modeling learning method, elementary students were able to build various models about problem situations, justify, and elaborate models by discussions and comparisons from each other. This proves that elementary students could participate in mathematical modeling activities via word problems, it results form the use of more authentic tasks, small group activities and whole-class discussions, exclusion of teacher's direct intervention, and classroom culture improvement efforts. The conclusions drawn from the results obtained in this study are as follows: First, mathematical modeling learning(ML) can become an effective method, guiding word problem solving behavior from the direct translation approach(DTA) based on numbers and key words without understanding about problem situations to the meaningful based approach(MBA) building rich models for problem situations. Second, mathematical modeling learning(ML) will contribute attitudes considering real world situations in solving word problems. Mathematical modeling activities for word problems can help elementary students to understand relations between word problems and the real world. It will be also help them to develop the ability to look at the real world mathematically. Third, mathematical modeling learning(ML) will contribute to the development of positive beliefs for mathematics and word problem solving. Word problem teaching focused on just mathematical operations can't develop proper beliefs for mathematics and word problem solving. Mathematical modeling learning(ML) for word problems provide elementary students the opportunity to understand the real world mathematically, and it increases students' modeling abilities. Futhermore, it is a very useful method of reforming the current problems of word problem teaching and learning. Therefore, word problems in school mathematics should be replaced by more authentic ones and modeling activities should be introduced early in elementary school eduction, which would help change the perceptions about word problem teaching.

The Study of the Direction of Development of the Korean Feature Length Animation for Movie Theater : in the Case of 〈 Leafle, A Hen into The Wild 〉 (한국 극장용 장편 애니메이션 산업의 발전 방향에 대한 연구: 〈마당을 나온 암탉〉을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yoon-A;Mok, Hae-Jung
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
    • /
    • s.26
    • /
    • pp.109-130
    • /
    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest the direction of the development of the feature length animation for movie theater by analyzing of the reasons of the success of . released in 2011 has broken box office records by drawing 2 millions since drew 760 thousands in 1976. This can be one of the success model of the animation for movie theater, considering it has had trouble not only in planning ability and scenario power but also in producing environment where subcontracts are prevalent. This box office hit seems to have been possible through cooperation and division of movie crews and animation crews. Many kinds of materials are reviewed and producer Kim Seonku was interviewed for analysis of the reasons of box office success. Followings are five reasons of success found as the result of analysis and the body of this article is composed of the argument and analysis of each. 1.This animation was planned and produced in the same way of commercial feature films. 2.There was detailed division of work while producing 3. Various kinds of investments were made sequentially, 4. Major film distributor like Lotte and CJ could be motivated 5. There were producers who can mediate between the animation and film field This study suggests the direction both in the aspect of industry and the aspect of training professionals as the result of analysis. In the industrial aspect, transitional cooperation is needed between animation filed and film field which can motivate distributor. Industrial approach like planning, investment, distribution and marketing is absolute for the success of animation for movie theater. Also in the aspect of training professionals, curriculum needs to be improved in the university because the ability and passion of the professionals in the field of animation industry are the most important and education is the most approachable way.

Development of a Korean Standard Structural Brain Template in Cognitive Normals and Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease (정상노인 및 경도인지장애 및 알츠하이머성 치매 환자에서의 한국인 뇌 구조영상 표준판 개발)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Jahng, Geon-Ho;Lee, Hack-Young;Kim, Sun-Mi;Ryu, Chang-Woo;Shin, Won-Chul;Lee, Soo-Yeol
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.103-114
    • /
    • 2010
  • Purpose : To generate a Korean specific brain template, especially in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) by optimizing the voxel-based analysis. Materials and Methods : Three-dimensional T1-weighted images were obtained from 123 subjects who were 43 cognitively normal subjects and patients with 44 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 36 AD. The template and the corresponding aprior maps were created by using the matched pairs approach with considering differences of age, gender and differential diagnosis (DDX). We measured several characteristics in both our and the MNI templates, including in the ventricle size. Also, the fractions of gray matter and white matter voxels normalized by the total intracranial were evaluated. Results : The high resolution template and the corresponding aprior maps of gray matter, white matter (WM) and CSF were created with the voxel-size of $1{\times}1{\times}1\;mm$. Mean distance measures and the ventricle sizes differed between two templates. Our brain template had less gray matter and white matter areas than the MNI template. There were volume differences more in gray matter than in white matter. Conclusion : Gray matter and/or white matter integrity studies in populations of Korean elderly and patients with AD are needed to investigate with this template.

Scaling up of single fracture using a spectral analysis and computation of its permeability coefficient (스펙트럼 분석을 응용한 단일 균열 규모확장과 투수계수 산정)

  • 채병곤
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.29-46
    • /
    • 2004
  • It is important to identify geometries of fracture that act as a conduit of fluid flow for characterization of ground water flow in fractured rock. Fracture geometries control hydraulic conductivity and stream lines in a rock mass. However, we have difficulties to acquire whole geometric data of fractures in a field scale because of discontinuous distribution of outcrops and impossibility of continuous collecting of subsurface data. Therefore, it is needed to develop a method to describe whole feature of a target fracture geometry. This study suggests a new approach to develop a method to characterize on the whole feature of a target fracture geometry based on the Fourier transform. After sampling of specimens along a target fracture from borehole cores, effective frequencies among roughness components were selected by the Fourier transform on each specimen. Then, the selected effective frequencies were averaged on each frequency. Because the averaged spectrum includes all the frequency profiles of each specimen, it shows the representative components of the fracture roughness of the target fracture. The inverse Fourier transform is conducted to reconstruct an averaged whole roughness feature after low pass filtering. The reconstructed roughness feature also shows the representative roughness of the target subsurface fracture including the geometrical characteristics of each specimen. It also means that overall roughness feature by scaling up of a fracture. In order to identify the characteristics of permeability coefficients along the target fracture, fracture models were constructed based on the reconstructed roughness feature. The computation of permeability coefficient was performed by the homogenization analysis that can calculate accurate permeability coefficients with full consideration of fracture geometry. The results show a range between $10^{-4}{\;}and{\;}10^{-3}{\;}cm/sec$, indicating reasonable values of permeability coefficient along a large fracture. This approach will be effectively applied to the analysis of permeability characteristics along a large fracture as well as identification of the whole feature of a fracture in a field scale.

A Study of Sales Changes of Convenience Stores and Ratio Changes in the Composition of Business Types within Trading Areas of SSM (SSM 상권내의 업종 비율 변화와 편의점 매출액 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Cho, Chun-Han;Ahn, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.193-209
    • /
    • 2011
  • The fast expansion of super supermarket(SSM) in Korean retail industries has attracted serious social attentions and some types of regulations to slow down its growth are prepared. However, the regulations are hardly justified because they attempt to establish entry barriers which are not recommendable economic policy. Accordingly, the regulations should be justified at least on the basis of social and political causes. The study interprets the social and political causes as the effects of entry of SSM on trading ares where SSM is located. The study is distinguished from the past studies which focused only on intertype and intratype competition between retailers Another goal of the study is to complement the weakness of past studies and provide additional information to settle the issues. More closely, the study investigates the relationships between the changes in sales of convenience stores, which may be a surrogate measure of the viability of a local economy, and the changes in the composition of business types within 500m radius of a SSM. Further, the study investigates the effects of the establishment of SSM and the retail sales index on the sales of convenience stores. The study analyzed the panel data and adopts Swamy's random coefficient models. The results show that the effects of the establishment of SSM on the sales of convenience stores are not statistically significant. The relationship between the change in the portion of restaurants among the local business and the change in the sales of convenience stores is positive. On the other hand the relationship between the change in the portion of retailers in the composition of local businesses and the change in the sales of convenience stores is negative. In conclusion, even though any negative effects of the establishments of SSM on local economies are expected, as long as other types business especially restaurant businesses fill the space left by retailers, the net effect on the local economy may not be signification or even positive.

  • PDF

The Ability of Anti-tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha(TNF-${\alpha}$) Antibodies Produced in Sheep Colostrums

  • Yun, Sung-Seob
    • 한국유가공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2007.09a
    • /
    • pp.49-58
    • /
    • 2007
  • Inflammatory process leads to the well-known mucosal damage and therefore a further disturbance of the epithelial barrier function, resulting abnormal intestinal wall function, even further accelerating the inflammatory process[1]. Despite of the records, etiology and pathogenesis of IBD remain rather unclear. There are many studies over the past couple of years have led to great advanced in understanding the inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and their underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms. From the current understanding, it is likely that chronic inflammation in IBD is due to aggressive cellular immune responses including increased serum concentrations of different cytokines. Therefore, targeted molecules can be specifically eliminated in their expression directly on the transcriptional level. Interesting therapeutic trials are expected against adhesion molecules and pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-${\alpha}$. The future development of immune therapies in IBD therefore holds great promises for better treatment modalities of IBD but will also open important new insights into a further understanding of inflammation pathophysiology. Treatment of cytokine inhibitors such as Immunex(Enbrel) and J&J/Centocor(Remicade) which are mouse-derived monoclonal antibodies have been shown in several studies to modulate the symptoms of patients, however, theses TNF inhibitors also have an adverse effect immune-related problems and also are costly and must be administered by injection. Because of the eventual development of unwanted side effects, these two products are used in only a select patient population. The present study was performed to elucidate the ability of TNF-${\alpha}$ antibodies produced in sheep colostrums to neutralize TNF-${\alpha}$ action in a cell-based bioassay and in a small animal model of intestinal inflammation. In vitro study, inhibitory effect of anti-TNF-${\alpha}$ antibody from the sheep was determined by cell bioassay. The antibody from the sheep at 1 in 10,000 dilution was able to completely inhibit TNF-${\alpha}$ activity in the cell bioassay. The antibodies from the same sheep, but different milkings, exhibited some variability in inhibition of TNF-${\alpha}$ activity, but were all greater than the control sample. In vivo study, the degree of inflammation was severe to experiment, despite of the initial pilot trial, main trial 1 was unable to figure out of any effect of antibody to reduce the impact of PAF and LPS. Main rat trial 2 resulted no significant symptoms like characteristic acute diarrhea and weight loss of colitis. This study suggested that colostrums from sheep immunized against TNF-${\alpha}$ significantly inhibited TNF-${\alpha}$ bioactivity in the cell based assay. And the higher than anticipated variability in the two animal models precluded assessment of the ability of antibody to prevent TNF-${\alpha}$ induced intestinal damage in the intact animal. Further study will require to find out an alternative animal model, which is more acceptable to test anti-TNF-${\alpha}$ IgA therapy for reducing the impact of inflammation on gut dysfunction. And subsequent pre-clinical and clinical testing also need generation of more antibody as current supplies are low.

  • PDF

Performance Evaluation of WWTP Based on Reliability Concept (신뢰성에 기초한 하수처리장 운전효율 평가)

  • Lee, Doo-Jin;Sun, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.348-356
    • /
    • 2007
  • Statistical and probabilistic method was used in the analysis of data, which is the most effective one in describing the various natures, and the methodology relating the results with the design was developed. Influents and effluents of three treatment plants were analyzed and the focus was made on BOD, COD, SS, IN, TP The fluctuations of influent such as BOD, COD, SS were extremely large and their standard deviations(st.dev) were more than 10 mg/L. but those of TN, TP were small; the st.dev was 6.6 mg/L for TN, 0.6 mg/L for TP, respectively. But, effluent concentration showed consistent pattern regardless of the influent fluctuations, the st.dev was ranged between 0.28 and 4.48 mg/L. Effluent distributional characteristics were as follows; BOD, COD were distributed normally, but SS, TN, and TP, log-normally; unsymmetric and skewed to the right. The coefficient of reliability(COR) based on the results of statistics of data was introduced to evaluate the process performance an4 to reflect the process performance to the process design. The coefficient of reliability relates the design value(the goal) with the standards and it can be used in operating treatment facilities under a certain reliability level and/or in evaluating the reliability of the treatment facilities on operation. Each treated water quality of effluent showed the half of water quality standards in the level of 50% percentile and all treatment plant was achieved 100% probability of water quality standards. It was concluded that the variability of the process performance should be reflected to the design procedure and the standards through the analysis based on the statistics and the probability.

Internal Structure of the Sense of Place for Parks that were aimed at Reenacting the Place Memory - Focusing on Seoul Park and Seonyudo Park - (장소기억의 재현을 주제로 조성된 서울숲, 선유도공원의 장소성 형성 구조 연구)

  • Im, Seungbin;Kwon, Yoonku;Jeong, Younhee;Hue, Younsun;Byeon, Jaesang;Choi, Hyungsuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2014
  • Recently, the reenaction of place's memories that were considered sense of place based on its historical and structural characteristic were assumed important topics for recovering and making the park from industrial sites, such as factory, industrial complex, industrial city, labor residential development, landfill, etc., to the public all over the world. This research aimed to conduct some preliminary data for making the park's sense of place highly. So, after conducting the structural forms of sense of place for Seoul Forest and Seonyudo Park that were designed and built by considering its place memories actively, park planning and design implications that were considered its sense of place were suggested. The research results those were derived from the structural forms of sense of place for Seoul Forest and Seonyudo Park's are the following. First, the Structural Equation Modeling(SEM) on Seoul Forest and Seonyudo Park were determined that the natural-physical, artificial-physical, and experiential environmental factors' satisfaction of Seoul Forest and Seonyudo Park have an effect on forming the Sense of Place. In addition, the sense of place was affected by the willingness to visit. Second, according to its physical environment, the experiential factors, such as plays, exercises and etc., were more important relatively. Therefore, experiential factors should be considered significantly with physical factors to make the sense of place highly. Third, even the places were under similar category, the factors' and valuables' relative importance were changed. As the results of structural equation modeling said, specific valuables' related with each factors would be differentiated due to the places' characteristics. For example, the results were showed that natural-physical factor was more important than artificial-physical factor in Seoul Forest. On the other hand, artificial-physical factor was more important than the natural- physical factor. This research carries some significance for applying a quantitative research method(structural equation modeling) to various place to conduct the sense of place's structural model, for suggesting relative specific methods to make the sense of place, and for being a step forward to substance of sense of place. If further studies conduct focusing on various places to draw the forming models of sense of place that were based this research's analysis methods and results, those researches would contribute to make the urban place meaningful, characteristically and affectionately. Furthermore, those researches would contribute in making a humane and competitiveness city.

A Strategic Approach to Competitiveness of ASEAN's Container Ports in International Logistics (국제물류전략에 있어서 ASEAN의 컨데이너항만 경쟁력에 관한 연구)

  • 김진구;이종인
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.273-280
    • /
    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the competitiveness of ports in ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which plays a leading role in basing the hub of international logistics strategies as a countermeasure in changes of international logistics environments. This region represents most severe competition among Mega hub ports in the world in terms of container cargo throughput at the onset of the 21 st century. The research method in this study accounted for overlapping between attributes, and introduced the HFP method that can perform mathematical operations. The scope of this study was strictly confined to the ports of ASEAN. which cover the top 100 of 350 container ports that were presented in Containerization International Yearbook 2002 with reference to container throughput. The results of this study show Singapore in the number one position. Even compared with major ports in Korea (after getting comparative ratings and applying the same data and evaluation structure), the number one position still goes to Singapore and then Busan(2) and Manila(2), followed by Port Klang(4), Tanjugn Priok(5), Tanjung Perak(6), Bangkok(7), Inchon(8), Laem Chabang(9) and Penang(9). In terms of the main contributions of this study, it is the first empirical study to apply the combined attributes of detailed and representative attributes into the advanced HFP model which was enhanced by the KJ method to evaluate the port competitiveness in ASEAN. Up-to-now, none have comprehensively conducted researches with sophisticated port methodology that has discussed a variety of changes in port development and terminal transfers of major shipping lines. Moreover, through the comparative evaluation between major ports in Korea and ASEAN, the presentation of comparative competitiveness for Korea ports is a great achievement in this study. In order to reinforce this study, it needs further compensative research, including cost factors which could not be applied to modeling the subject ports by lack of consistently qualified in ASEAN.

  • PDF