• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델 복잡성

Search Result 1,655, Processing Time 0.037 seconds

Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
    • /
    • v.14 no.5
    • /
    • pp.69-76
    • /
    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Sexual Reproduction in Unicellular Green Alga Chlamydomonas (수염녹두말속(Chlamydomonas) 단세포 녹조의 유성생식)

  • Lee, Kyu Bae
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.100-121
    • /
    • 2017
  • The sexual reproduction of the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas is reviewed for a comprehensive understanding of the complex processes. The sexual life cycle of C. reinhardtii is distinguished into five main stages: gametogenesis, gamete activation, cell fusion, zygote maturation, and meiosis and germination. Gametogenesis is induced by nitrogen starvation in the environment. C. reinhardtii has two mating types: mating type plus ($mt^+$) and mating type minus ($mt^-$), controlled by a single complex mating type locus ($MT^+$ or $MT^-$) on linkage group VI. In the early gametogenesis agglutinins are synthesized. The $mt^+$ and $mt^-$ agglutinins are encoded by the autosomal genes SAG1 (Sexual AGglutination1) and SAD1 (Sexual ADhesion1), respectively. The agglutinins are responsible for the flagellar adhesion of the two mating type of gametes. The flagellar adhesion initiates a cAMP mediated signal transduction pathways and activates the flagellar tips. In response to the cAMP signal, mating structures between two flagella are activated. The $mt^+$ and $mt^-$ gamete-specific fusion proteins, Fus1 and Hap2/Gcs1, are present on the plasma membrane of the two mating structures. Contact of the two mating structures leads to develop a fertilization tubule forming a cytoplasmic bridge between the two gametes. Upon fusion of nuclei and chloroplasts of $mt^+$ and $mt^-$ cells, the zygotes become zygospores. It is notable that the young zygote shows uniparental inheritance of chloroplast DNA from the $mt^+$ parent and mitochondrial DNA from the $mt^-$ parent. Under the favorable conditions, the zygospores divide meiotically and germinate and then new haploid progenies, vegetative cells, are released.

Development of Correction Formulas for KMA AAOS Soil Moisture Observation Data (기상청 농업기상관측망 토양수분 관측자료 보정식 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Won;Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Jongho;Sohn, Seungwon;Cho, Sungsik;Chun, Hyenchung;Jung, Ki-Yuol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-34
    • /
    • 2022
  • Soil moisture data have been collected at 11 agrometeorological stations operated by The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This study aimed to verify the accuracy of soil moisture data of KMA and develop a correction formula to be applied to improve their quality. The soil of the observation field was sampled to analyze its physical properties that affect soil water content. Soil texture was classified to be sandy loam and loamy sand at most sites. The bulk density of the soil samples was about 1.5 g/cm3 on average. The content of silt and clay was also closely related to bulk density and water holding capacity. The EnviroSCAN model, which was used as a reference sensor, was calibrated using the self-manufactured "reference soil moisture observation system". Comparison between the calibrated reference sensor and the field sensor of KMA was conducted at least three times at each of the 11 sites. Overall, the trend of fluctuations over time in the measured values of the two sensors appeared similar. Still, there were sites where the latter had relatively lower soil moisture values than the former. A linear correction formula was derived for each site and depth using the range and average of the observed data for the given period. This correction formula resulted in an improvement in agreement between sensor values at the Suwon site. In addition, the detailed approach was developed to estimate the correction value for the period in which a correction formula was not calculated. In summary, the correction of soil moisture data at a regular time interval, e.g., twice a year, would be recommended for all observation sites to improve the quality of soil moisture observation data.

Experimental Study on Helical Turbine Efficiency for Tidal Current Power Plant (조류 발전용 헬리컬 수차의 효율에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Han, Sang-Hun;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Yum, Ki-Dai;Park, Woo-Sun;Park, Jin-Soon;Yi, Jin-Hak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2006.05a
    • /
    • pp.530-534
    • /
    • 2006
  • 조류발전은 조류 유속이 빠른 곳에 수차발전기를 설치하여 해수의 운동에너지로부터 전기를 생산하는 발전방식이다. 2001년부터 해양연구원에서는 울돌목의 우수한 조류발전 개발 여건을 바탕으로 조류에너지 실용화 기술을 개발하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 조류발전 시스템에 사용되는 헬리컬 수차의 효율을 현장실험을 바탕으로 판단하고자 하였다. 현장실험을 위하여 지름 2.2 m, 높이 2.5 m의 수차를 제작하고, 울돌목 협수로의 한 쪽 면에 쟈켓구조물을 설치하여 수차를 거치한다. 수차가 회전함에 따라 회전봉에 일정 마찰을 주어 토크와 RPM을 측정하고, 함께 측정된 유속자료를 이용하여 수차를 효율을 산정한다. 유속-수차효율, TSR(수차의 날개속도와 유속의 비)-수차효율의 상관관계로 실험결과를 고찰하였다. 1중 날개 수차인 경우에 유속 1.4에서 2.6 m/s 사이에서 최대효율이 30 - 35 % 정도였고, 2중 날개 수차에 대한 실험에서는 유속 1.4에서 2.6 m/s 사이에서 최대수차효율이 25 - 35 % 사이임을 알 수 있었다. TSR과 최대수차효율의 상관관계는 실험 case별로 조금씩 다르다. 전체적으로 1중 날개의 경우가 최대수차효율에서 2중 날개보다 TSR 값이 조금 큰 경향을 나타냄을 알 수 있다. 이것은 1중 날개가 2중 날개보다 가벼워 좀 더 큰 RPM을 발생시켜서 나타난 현상으로 생각된다. 현재의 실험결과들을 이용하여 TSR과 최대수차효율을 상관관계를 나타내는 모델식을 도출하였다. 현장시험결과를 종합하면, 현장조류발전 시설이 최소 600 kW의 전력이 생산되기 위해서는 지름 3 m, 높이 3.6 m 인 수차 3개가 하나의 축에 설치되어야하는 것으로 계산되었다. 정격유속이 4.8 m/s이고 수차의 지름이 3m 라면, 최적 전력발생시의 RPM은 1중 날개의 경우 79이고 2중 날개의 경우는 63정도임을 추정할 수 있었다.촬영하여 실시간으로 전송하기 때문에 홍수시 하천 상황에 대한 모니터링 목적으로 사용될 수 있다. 영상수위계는 우물통 등을 이용하는 기존 방법과 비교하여 구조물이 필요 없어 설치 비용이 저렴하고, 영상에 의한 하천 모니터링 기능을 자체적으로 가지고 있기 때문에 효율적이라고 할 수 있다.따른 4개의 평가기준과 26개의 평가속성으로 이루어진 2단계 기술가치평가 모형을 구축하였으며 2개의 개별기술에 대한 시범적용을 실행하였다.하는 것으로 추정되었다.면으로의 월류량을 산정하고 유입된 지표유량에 대해서 배수시스템에서의 흐름해석을 수행하였다. 그리고, 침수해석을 위해서는 2차원 침수해석을 위한 DEM기반 침수해석모형을 개발하였고, 건물의 영향을 고려할 수 있도록 구성하였다. 본 연구결과 지표류 유출 해석의 물리적 특성을 잘 반영하며, 도시지역의 복잡한 배수시스템 해석모형과 지표범람 모형을 통합한 모형 개발로 인해 더욱 정교한 도시지역에서의 홍수 범람 해석을 실시할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 모형의 개발로 침수상황의 시간별 진행과정을 분석함으로써 도시홍수에 대한 침수위험 지점 파악 및 주민대피지도 구축 등에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 있을 것으로 판단되었다.4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행태적 측면과 투자성과측면의 실증결과를 통하여 한국주식시장에 있어서 시장수익률을 평균적으로 초과할 수 있는 거래전략은 존재하므로 이러한 전략을 개발 및 활용할 수 있으며, 특히, 한국주식시장에 적합한 거래전략은 반전거래전

  • PDF

Monte Carlo Study Using GEANT4 of Cyberknife Stereotactic Radiosurgery System (GEANT4를 이용한 정위적 사이버나이프 선량분포의 계산과 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chung-Il;Shin, Jae-Won;Shin, Hun-Joo;Jung, Jae-Yong;Kim, Yon-Lae;Min, Jeong-Hwan;Hong, Seung-Woo;Chung, Su-Mi;Jung, Won-Gyun;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.192-200
    • /
    • 2010
  • Cyberknife with small field size is more difficult and complex for dosimetry compared with conventional radiotherapy due to electronic disequilibrium, steep dose gradients and spectrum change of photons and electrons. The purpose of this study demonstrate the usefulness of Geant4 as verification tool of measurement dose for delivering accurate dose by comparing measurement data using the diode detector with results by Geant4 simulation. The development of Monte Carlo Model for Cyberknife was done through the two-step process. In the first step, the treatment head was simulated and Bremsstrahlung spectrum was calculated. Secondly, percent depth dose (PDD) was calculated for six cones with different size, i.e., 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm, 30 mm, 50 mm and 60 mm in the model of water phantom. The relative output factor was calculated about 12 fields from 5 mm to 60 mm and then it compared with measurement data by the diode detector. The beam profiles and depth profiles were calculated about different six cones and about each depth of 1.5 cm, 10 cm and 20 cm, respectively. The results about PDD were shown the error the less than 2% which means acceptable in clinical setting. For comparison of relative output factors, the difference was less than 3% in the cones lager than 7.5 mm. However, there was the difference of 6.91% in the 5 mm cone. Although beam profiles were shown the difference less than 2% in the cones larger than 20 mm, there was the error less than 3.5% in the cones smaller than 20 mm. From results, we could demonstrate the usefulness of Geant4 as dose verification tool.

Comparison of Forest Carbon Stocks Estimation Methods Using Forest Type Map and Landsat TM Satellite Imagery (임상도와 Landsat TM 위성영상을 이용한 산림탄소저장량 추정 방법 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Lee, Jung-Bin;Jung, Jaehoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.449-459
    • /
    • 2015
  • The conventional National Forest Inventory(NFI)-based forest carbon stock estimation method is suitable for national-scale estimation, but is not for regional-scale estimation due to the lack of NFI plots. In this study, for the purpose of regional-scale carbon stock estimation, we created grid-based forest carbon stock maps using spatial ancillary data and two types of up-scaling methods. Chungnam province was chosen to represent the study area and for which the $5^{th}$ NFI (2006~2009) data was collected. The first method (method 1) selects forest type map as ancillary data and uses regression model for forest carbon stock estimation, whereas the second method (method 2) uses satellite imagery and k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN) algorithm. Additionally, in order to consider uncertainty effects, the final AGB carbon stock maps were generated by performing 200 iterative processes with Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, compared to the NFI-based estimation(21,136,911 tonC), the total carbon stock was over-estimated by method 1(22,948,151 tonC), but was under-estimated by method 2(19,750,315 tonC). In the paired T-test with 186 independent data, the average carbon stock estimation by the NFI-based method was statistically different from method2(p<0.01), but was not different from method1(p>0.01). In particular, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the smoothing effect of k-NN algorithm and mis-registration error between NFI plots and satellite image can lead to large uncertainty in carbon stock estimation. Although method 1 was found suitable for carbon stock estimation of forest stands that feature heterogeneous trees in Korea, satellite-based method is still in demand to provide periodic estimates of un-investigated, large forest area. In these respects, future work will focus on spatial and temporal extent of study area and robust carbon stock estimation with various satellite images and estimation methods.

Effect of Subtotal Pancreatectomy of Female Mice on the Embryo and Offspring (암컷 생쥐의 췌장 부분절제가 배아와 신생자에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Young-Jae;Lee, Jung-Sun;Gu, Sun-Kyung;Park, Moon-Nyeo;Lee, Ha-Kye;Cho, Byung-Nam
    • Development and Reproduction
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.185-192
    • /
    • 2006
  • It is known that maternal diabetes induces a premature delivery and a congenital malformation. Although it was suggested that hyperglycemia is a main cause, little has been known. The effects of subtotal pancreactomized animal as a diabetic model on the embryo and the offspring were investigated. 1) Although survival rate of offsprings from the 90% pancreactomized female was lower than that of control, body weight of the survived offsprings was similar to that of control until 6 weeks after birth. When the liver was investigated, abnormal tissue was observed in both female and male offsprings from the pancreactomized mother. The level of major urinary protein(MUP) that is synthesized in the liver and secrets into urine was decreased in both female and male, supporting the liver abnormality. 2) In the pancreactomized female, size of the Langhan's island was increased and the liver also was observed abnormal. However, blood glucose level of the pancreactomized mother was not different from that of control. The low body weight and survival rate of offsprings from the $inhibin-{\alpha}$ overexpressed mice was very similar to those of the offsprings from diabetic mother. Thus when the mother itself was investigated after DNA injection, blood glucose level in the $inhibin-{\alpha}$ overexpressed mice was not different from that of control although size of the Langhan's island was decreased. Taken together, subtotal pancreactomy affected the offspring and embryo and influenced deeply the mother itself. However glucose level of the mother was not changed during investigation. It suggested that the relationship between the diabetic mother and embryo through offspring is very complex.

  • PDF

A Study of Three-dimensional Magnetization Vector Inversion (MVI) Modeling Using Bathymetry Data and Magnetic Data of TA (Tofua Arc) 12 Seamount in Tonga Arc, Southwestern Pacific (남서태평양 통가열도 TA (Tofua Arc) 12 해저산의 해저지형과 자력자료를 이용한 3차원 자화벡터역산 모델 연구)

  • Choi, Soon Young;Kim, Chang Hwan;Park, Chan Hong;Kim, Hyung Rae
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.22-37
    • /
    • 2020
  • We analyze the comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) magnetic structure characteristics from the seafloor to the deep layer of the Tofua Arc (TA) 12 seamount in the Tonga Arc, Southwestern Pacific, using bathymetric and geomagnetic data, and magnetization vector inversion (MVI) results. The seafloor features surrounding TA 12 highlight a NW-SE-oriented elliptical caldera at the summit of the seamount, two small cones in the depressed area. A large-scale sea valley is present on the western flank of the seamount, extending from these caldera cones to the southwestern base of the seamount. TA 12 seamount exhibits a low magnetic anomaly in the caldera depression, whereas a high magnetic anomaly is observed surrounding the low magnetic anomaly across the caldera summit. It is therefore presumed that there may be a strong magnetic material distribution or magma intrusion in the caldera. The 3D MVI results show that the high anomaly zones are mainly present in the surrounding slopes of the seamount from the seafloor to the -3,000 m (below the seafloor) level, with the magnetic susceptibility intensity increasing as the seafloor level increases at the caldera depression. However, small high anomaly zones are present across the study area near the seafloor level. Therefore, we expect that the magma ascent in TA 12 seamount migrated from the flanks to the depression area. Furthermore, we assume that the complex magnetic distribution near the seafloor is due to the remnant magnetization.

RAUT: An end-to-end tool for automated parsing and uploading river cross-sectional survey in AutoCAD format to river information system for supporting HEC-RAS operation (하천정비기본계획 CAD 형식 단면 측량자료 자동 추출 및 하천공간 데이터베이스 업로딩과 HEC-RAS 지원을 위한 RAUT 툴 개발)

  • Kim, Kyungdong;Kim, Dongsu;You, Hojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1339-1348
    • /
    • 2021
  • In accordance with the River Law, the basic river maintenance plan is established every 5-10 years with a considerable national budget for domestic rivers, and various river surveys such as the river section required for HEC-RAS simulation for flood level calculation are being conducted. However, river survey data are provided only in the form of a pdf report to the River Management Geographic Information System (RIMGIS), and the original data are distributedly owned by designers who performed the river maintenance plan in CAD format. It is a situation that the usability for other purposes is considerably lowered. In addition, when using surveyed CAD-type cross-sectional data for HEC-RAS, tools such as 'Dream' are used, but the reality is that time and cost are almost as close as manual work. In this study, RAUT (River Information Auto Upload Tool), a tool that can solve these problems, was developed. First, the RAUT tool attempted to automate the complicated steps of manually inputting CAD survey data and simulating the input data of the HEC-RAS one-dimensional model used in establishing the basic river plan in practice. Second, it is possible to directly read CAD survey data, which is river spatial information, and automatically upload it to the river spatial information DB based on the standard data model (ArcRiver), enabling the management of river survey data in the river maintenance plan at the national level. In other words, if RIMGIS uses a tool such as RAUT, it will be able to systematically manage national river survey data such as river section. The developed RAUT reads the river spatial information CAD data of the river maintenance master plan targeting the Jeju-do agar basin, builds it into a mySQL-based spatial DB, and automatically generates topographic data for HEC-RAS one-dimensional simulation from the built DB. A pilot process was implemented.

"As the Scientific Witness Is a Court Witness and Is Not a Party Witness" ("과학의 승리"는 어떻게 선언될 수 있는가? 친자 확인을 위한 혈액형 검사가 법원으로 들어갔던 과정)

  • Kim, Hyomin
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-51
    • /
    • 2019
  • The understanding of law and science as fundamentally different two systems, in which fact stands against justice, rapid progress against prudent process, is far too simple to be valid. Nonetheless, such account is commonly employed to explain the tension between law and science or justice and truth. Previous STS research raises fundamental doubts upon the off-the-shelf concept of "scientific truth" that can be introduced to the court for legal judgment. Delimiting the qualification of the expert, the value of the expert knowledge, or the criteria of the scientific expertise have always included social negotiation. What are the values that are affecting the boundary-making of the thing called "modern science" that is supposedly useful in solving legal conflicts? How do the value of law and the meaning of justice change as the boundaries of modern science take shapes? What is the significance of "science" when it is emphasized, particularly in relation to the legal provisions of paternity, and how does this perception of science affect unfoldings of legal disputes? In order to explore the answers to the above questions, we follow a process in which a type of "knowledge-deficient model" of a court-that is, law lags behind science and thus, under-employs its useful functions-can be closely examined. We attend to a series of discussions and subsequent changes that occurred in the US courts between 1930s and 1970s, when blood type tests began to be used to determine parental relations. In conclusion, we argue that it was neither nature nor truth in itself that was excavated by forensic scientists and legal practitioners, who regarded blood type tests as a truth machine. Rather, it was their careful practices and crafty narratives that made the roadmaps of modern science, technology, and society on which complex tensions between modern states, families, and courts were seen to be "resolved".