• Title/Summary/Keyword: 멸종확률

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Studies on probability extinction of Peregrine falcon species wintering around Jang Hang wetlands in the Han river (겨울철 한강 장항습지에 서식하는 매 멸종확률 예측에 대한 연구)

  • LEE, Sangdon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.282-285
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    • 2016
  • Peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) are listed as endangered species and Natural monument #323 in Korea, and this study examined the possibility of extinct of peregrine falcon in Jang Hang wetland near Han river using with the application of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) technique. In Jang Hang wetland areas population was monitored during 1999-2005 averaging 10.8 individuals and PVA analysis was done for the 5 years (2015-2020) using the average population size. Using the initial population was estimated 20% of extinct rate during the time. This estimation was quite low considering water pollution and loss of habitat. Also PVA only used population size lacking in other life history information. Nonetheless falcon population can be in risk of extinction if the current construction of crossovers in the river, cement bank are maintained. Long term information regarding life history needs essential.

Habitat Suitability Models of Endangered Wildlife Class II Mauremys reevesii in Gurye-gun, the Republic of Korea (전라남도 구례군에 서식하는 멸종위기 야생생물 II급 남생이의 서식지 적합성 모델 개발)

  • Chang-Deuk Park;Jeongwoo Yoo;Kwanik Kwon;Nakyung Yoo;Moon Seong Heo;Ju-Duk Yoon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to clarify the environmental variables that affect the appearance of Mauremys reevesii and to understand the relationship between M. reevesii and the variables. Habitat environmental survey was implemented by selecting 17 environmental variables considering ecological characteristics of M. reevesii in the main reservoir in Gurye-gun, the Republic of Korea. And the habitat data on the presence and absence of M.reevesii were analyzed statistically. The habitat suitability model of M. reevesii was described in following equation : logit (p) = -3.68 + (0.17 × leaf litter depth) + (1.55 × vegetation coverage of overstory on land) + (0.71 × coverage of midstory on land) + (0.96 × vegetation coverage of understory on water). This information gained is valuable for better understanding the distribution and how to conserve and promote populations of M. reevesii occurring in the Republic of Korea.

Exploring the Stability of Predator-Prey Ecosystem in Response to Initial Population Density (초기 개체군 밀도가 포식자-피식자 생태계 안정성에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Jung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2013
  • The ecosystem is the complex system consisting of various biotic and abiotic factors and the factors interact with each other in the hierarchical predator-prey relationship. Since the competitive relation spatiotemporally occurs, the initial state of population density and species distribution are likely to play an important role in the stability of the ecosystem. In the present study, we constructed a lattice model to simulate the three-trophic ecosystem (predatorprey- plant) and using the model, explored how the ecosystem stability is affected by the initial density. The size of lattice space was $L{\times}L$, (L=100) with periodic boundary condition. The initial density of the plant was arbitrarily set as the value of 0.2. The simulation result showed that predator and prey coexist when the density of predator is less than or equal to 0.4 and the density of prey is less than or equal to 0.5. On the other hand, when the predator density is more than or equal to 0.5 and the density of prey is more than or equal to 0.6, both of predator and prey were extinct. In addition, we found that the strong nonlinearity in the interaction between species was observed in the border area between the coexistence and extinction in the species density space.

Release Strategy for the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) Restoration Project in Korea Based on Population Viability Analysis (개체군 생존력 분석을 이용한 여우복원사업 방사전략)

  • Lee, Hwa-Jin;Lee, Bae-Keun;Kwon, Gu-Hui;Chung, Chul-Un
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2013
  • The red fox (Vulpes vulpes), listed as a Class I endangered species by the Ministry of Environment of Korea, has been considered to be extinct in South Korea since the 1980s, and an intensive restoration project has been underway in Sobaeksan national park. This study was carried out to develop a suitable model for the red fox reintroduction program based on Population viability analysis (PVA) by using the VORTEX program. If 10 animals (5 females and 5 males) were continuously released into the initial zero population every year for 10 years, population growth rate and extinction probability over the next 50 years after the introduction of the population were $0.018{\pm}0.204$ and 0.354, respectively; the maximum population size was 116.34 at the 16th year after the first release, and a reduction rate of 1.22 every year from the 17th year was inferred. We found that additional releases would be needed from the 17th year after the initial release to maintain a positive growth rate and to prevent the extinction of the released red foxes, and releasing more than 12 individuals every year would be needed for the long-term, continuous existence of red foxes. By contrast, if fewer than 6 red fox individuals were released the extinction probability over the next 50 years was more than 80%. To maintain the minimum population growth rate, the release of more than 8 individuals were needed for positive population growth. The population growth rate was more stable when 10 animals in the change of their sex rate every year from the set value were released as the female-to- male sex ratio of 6:4 rather than 1:1. However, if the female-biased sex ratio was increased by more than 7:3, a negative population growth was expected. The occurrence rate of roadkill and poaching are important factors in the red fox restoration project. The extinction probability was decreased to 30% if each factor was decreased to 3% based on the standard baseline; however, if each factor was increased to more than 3%, an extinction rate of about 90% was reached over the next 50 years.

Considerations and Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of Local Abundance of Legally Protected Species, the Fiddler Crab, Austruca lactea (법정보호종, 흰발농게(Austruca lactea) 서식 개체수 추정에 대한 검토와 대안)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Park, Mi-Ra;Jeong, Su-Young;Lee, Chae-Lin;Kim, Sungtae;Ahn, Dong-Sik;Lee, Chang-Gun;Han, Donguk;Back, Yonghae;Park, Young Cheol
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.122-132
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    • 2021
  • We reviewed the methods employed in Korean tidal flat surveys to measure the local abundance of the endangered wildlife and marine protected species, the fiddler crab, Austruca lactea. A complete census for infinite population is impossible even in a limited habitat within a tidal flat, and density estimates from samples strongly vary due to diverse biological and ecological factors. The habitat boundaries and areas shift with periodicities or rhythmic activities of organisms as well as measurement errors. Hence the local abundance calculated from density and habitat areas should be regarded as transient. This conjecture was valid based on the spatio-temporal variations of the density averages, standard error ranges, and spatial distribution of the crab, A. lactea observed for 3 years (2015-2017) in Songdo tidal flat in Incheon. We proposed the potential habitat areas using the occurrence probability of 50% from logistic regression model, reflecting the importance of habitat conservation value as an alternative to local abundance. The spatial shape of potential habitat predicted from a generalized model would remain constant over time unless the species' critical environmental conditions change rapidly. The species-specific model is expected to be used for the introduction of desired species in future habitat restoration/creation projects.

Development for Wetland Network Model in Nakdong Basin using a Graph Theory (그래프이론을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 습지네트워크 구축모델 개발)

  • Rho, Paikho
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.397-406
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    • 2013
  • Wetland conservation plan has been established to protect ecologically important wetlands based on vegetation integrity, spatial distribution of endangered species, but recently more demands are concentrated on the landscape ecological approaches such as topological relationship, neighboring area, spatial arrangements between wetlands at the broad scale. Landscape ecological analysis and graph theory are conducted to identify spatial characteristics related to core nodes and weak links of wetland networks in Nakdong basin. Regular planar model, which is selected for wetland networks, is applied in the Nakdong basin. The analysis indicates that 5 regional groups and 4 core wetlands are extracted with 15km threshold distance. The IIC and PC values based on the binary and probability models suggest that the wetland group C composed of main stream of Nakdong river and Geumho river is the most important area for wetland network. Wetland conservation plan, restoration projected of damaged and weak links between wetlands should be proposed through evaluating the node, links, and networks from wetlands at the local to the regional scale in Nakdong basin.

Evaluation of Ecological Optimum Discharge by consideration of Fish community in Dal Stream (어류군집을 고려한 달천유역의 생태학적 최적유량 산정)

  • Kwak, Seung-Joo;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.547-547
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 달천구간 (괴산댐~송동보)에서 어류 군집 (Fish Community)을 고려한 생태학적 최적유량 (Ecological Optimum Discharge)을 산정하였다. 이를 위해 유량증진방법론(IFIM: Instream Flow Incremental Methodology)을 기반으로 한 2차원 모형인 River-2D를 적용하여 수리해석 및 대상어종 (Target Fishes)에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA: Weighted Usable Area)을 산정하였다. 모형 검증을 위해 김원 등 (2007)에 의해 수행된 과업구간 내 수위 및 유량 모니터링 자료를 활용하였으며, 하류경계조건은 김지성 등 (2007)에 의한 수위-유량 관계곡선식을 활용하였다. 또한 평저류량 조건에서의 조도높이 (Roughness Height) 산정을 위해 유량 및 하상재료의 영향을 고려할 수 있는 멱함수 및 반대수함수 형태의 조도계수 공식을 적용하였다. 모형검증 결과 River-2D에 의해 계산된 수위값이 모니터링값과 비교적 잘 일치함을 알 수 있었다. 대상유역에 대한 어류 모니터링 (에코리버21사업단, 2007~2010) 결과를 바탕으로, 과업지역내 우점종 (피라미), 아우점종 (쉬리 등 3개 어종), 멸종위기어종 (묵납자루)을 대상어종으로 선정하였으며, 대상어종에 대한 서식도적합도지수 (HSI, Habitat Suitability Index) 산정을 위해 IFASG (Instream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group) 방법 및 WDWF (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) 방법을 적용하였다. 수심, 유속, 하상재료 및 하상형상에 대한 서식도적합도지수가 5가지 대상어종에 대해 각각 산정되었으며, 복합적합도지수 (CSI : Combined Suitability Index)를 고려한 과업대상 위치별 어류의 발생확률이 모의되었다. 어류 군집에 대한 가중가용면적 (WUA)이 최대로 되는 생태학적 최적유량 산정 결과, Type I~III의 경우 모두 $10m^3/s$ 이하의 유량조건에 대해서 WUA가 최대값을 갖는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 납자루속의 어류 (Type III)의 WUA가 000 및 000속 (Type II)의 어류에 비해서 작은 유량에서 더 큰 값을 갖으며, $10m^3/$s 초과 유량에 대해서는 반대의 경향이 나타나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Wild Boar (Sus scrofa corranus Heude ) Habitat Modeling Using GIS and Logistic Regression (GIS와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 멧돼지 서식지 모형 개발)

  • 서창완;박종화
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2000
  • Accurate information on habitat distribution of protected fauna is essential for the habitat management of Korea, a country with very high development pressure. The objectives of this study were to develop a habitat suitability model of wild boar based on GIS and logistic regression, and to create habitat distribution map, and to prepare the basis for habitat management of our country s endangered and protected species. The modeling process of this restudyarch had following three steps. First, GIS database of environmental factors related to use and availability of wild boar habitat were built. Wild boar locations were collected by Radio-Telemetry and GPS. Second, environmental factors affecting the habitat use and availability of wild boars were identified through chi-square test. Third, habitat suitability model based on logistic regression were developed, and the validity of the model was tested. Finally , habitat assessment map was created by utilizing a rule-based approach. The results of the study were as folos. First , distinct difference in wild boar habitat use by season and habitat types were found, however, no difference in wild boar habiat use by season and habitat types were found , however, ho difference by sex and activity types were found. Second, it was found, through habitat availability analysis, that elevation , aspect , forest type, and forest age were significant natural environmental factors affecting wild boar hatibate selection, but the effects of slope, ridge/valley, water, and solar radiation could not be identified, Finally, the habitat at cutoff value of 0.5. The model validation showed that inside validation site had the classification accuracy of 73.07% for total habitat and 80.00% for cover habitat , and outside validation site had the classification accuracy of 75.00% for total habitat.

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The Environmental Characteristics and Vegetation Structures of Kirengeshoma Koreana Habitats (나도승마 서식지의 환경적 특성과 식생구조)

  • Cho, Seon-Hee;Kim, Dae-Woo;Kang, Sang-Ho;Jeong, Yeo-Hong;Lee, Sung-Jae;Kim, Joon-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.3
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    • pp.446-454
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    • 2013
  • The present study investigated the biological agents and environmental conditions of the habitats of the Kirengeshoma koreana, a class 2 endangered species class according to the South Korean Ministry of Environment (MOE), elucidated the structural characteristics of the forest stands in the habitats with the importance value and the diversity index, conducted comparative analysis of the factors, and explored their relationship with environmental factors. According to the results of direction analysis of natural habitats of the Kirengeshoma koreana, the direction was distributed to the north or the northeast, and the slope amounted to $15-40^{\circ}$, thus demonstrating that the slope has little effect. In addition, the results showed that the distribution of Kirengeshoma koreana populations dramatically increased starting in areas at least 600 m above the sea level and that the relative light intensity was 3.79% on an average. Most populations were native to gorges and crevices between rocks so that they mainly tended to inhabit areas that could see soil loss in times of precipitation. In addition, a considerable number of the populations were close to hiking trails as well, thus leading to concerns about their artificial destruction. The soil of layer a in the main growth space of the Kirengeshoma koreana was analyzed and turned out to be strongly acidic, measuring pH 4.45-4.89 (average: 4.68). All investigation sections were typical natural broad-leaved tree areas, and, judging from the fact that the Kirengeshoma koreana was most likely to appear in colonies of the Mongolian oak tree (Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb.), the Mongolian oak tree seems to be the species of tree that has the greatest effect on the inhabitation of the Kirengeshoma koreana.

Population Viability Analysis of a Gold-spotted Pond Frog (Rana chosenica) Population: Implications for Effective Conservation and Re-introduction (금개구리 (Rana chosenica) 개체군의 생존분석: 개체군의 효과적인 보존과 야생복귀를 위한 제안)

  • Cheong, Seok-Wan;Sung, Ha-Cheol;Park, Dae-Sik;Park, Shi-Ryong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2009
  • Population viability analysis of a Gold-spotted pond frog (Rana chosenica) population at Cheongwon-gun, Chungbuk, in South Korea was conducted and we proposed several suggestions for effective conservation and re-introduction of the species. Simulating a developed model over 1,000 times predicted that the population will exist over 30 years with a relatively low growth rate of 0.113, but with a high probability of extinction as 81.1%. Population growth and extinction probability were the most greatly depended on the rate of successful metamorphosis. In the case of outbreak of amphibian diseases such as Chytridiomycosis and Ranavirus, the population will be easily extinct within 4 years with 100% probability. In a habitat of which carrying capacity is 200, to successfully re-introduce an extinct population, it is initially needed to put 100 individuals of which 83% is males and its age structure is normal-distributed. If we additionally conducts artificial supplementation of 10% individuals every 2 years from 4 years to 10 years after initial reintroduction, the population will become a stable with 0.297 growth rate and 0.290 extinction rate. Our results are the first case of amphibian population viability analysis in Korea and could be used to develop effective conservation and re-introduction plans for endangered Gold-spotted pond frog.